Karnika Industries Ltd Guidance Report - SOIC x StockScans Report
as of Jul 2026
- Warrant issue - ₹47 cr via preferential issue
On track - In the Q4 FY26 PPT, management outlined a funding plan including ₹47 cr via warrant issue. As of Q1 FY27, warrant holders paid 25% of the issue price amounting to ₹11.99 cr, which was fully utilised, with the 18-month window from allotment still open.
- Kidcity EBOs - 150+ on rental by FY28
Pending - In the Q4 FY26 PPT, management set a target of 150+ EBOs on rental by FY28E. Our record holds no disclosure of the current EBO count or progress toward the target, and the FY28 horizon is not reached.
- Kidcity kiosks - 1,000+ by FY28
Pending - In the Q4 FY26 PPT, management set a target of 1,000+ kiosks by FY28E. As of Q4 FY26, the company operated 55+ kiosks, and the FY28 horizon is not reached.
- Revenue CAGR - 30-35% over next 3-4 years
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided a revenue CAGR of around 30% to 35% over the next three to four years. FY26 revenue was ₹248 cr, growth of 44% YoY, exceeding the target band with the 3-4 year window from Mar 2026 still open.
- Normalized consolidated PAT margin - 11-13% over next 2-3 years
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided normalized consolidated PAT margin in the range of 11% to 13% over the next two to three years. FY26 PAT margin was 11.4% and Q1 FY27 PAT margin implied \~12.4%, already within the guided range with the horizon open.
- Technological development - "one of a kind" by FY27
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated a "one of a kind" technological development is planned to be achieved by FY27. Q1 FY27 result notes disclose a software under development by subsidiary Kidcity Solutions, consistent with active progress toward the FY27 deadline.
- Promoter backstop - any shortfall supported via unsecured loan
Pending - In the Q4 FY26 PPT, management stated any funding shortfall will be supported by promoter via unsecured loan. No funding shortfall event has been disclosed in our record, and the contingent promise is not yet due.
- Internal accruals - fund 40-50% of total capex over next 2 years
Pending - In the Q4 FY26 PPT, management stated internal accruals will fund 40-50% of total capex over the next 2 years. FY26 PAT was ₹28 cr and Q1 FY27 PAT was ₹9.14 cr, but the 2-year window from May 2026 runs to May 2028 and no capex quantum is disclosed.
- Exports - \~10% of total volume to Middle East
Partial - The company stated it “expects to export around 10% of its total volume to the Middle East” as an ongoing aspiration without a deadline. Q4 FY26 revenue from exports was \~3% and management indicated exports were around 5% of total sales, leaving the company below its open-ended volume expectation.
- Karnika standalone revenue - ₹300 cr+ in 2-3 years
On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided Karnika standalone revenue of more than ₹300 cr in 2-3 years, later revised at the Q4 FY26 call to a growth trajectory of 25-35% CAGR. FY26 standalone revenue was ₹248 cr, and the 2-3 year window from Sep 2025 remains open with the guided growth rate consistent with reaching the target.
- Move to main board
Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided that preparations are made to move to main board. Our record holds no disclosure of a main-board listing application, approval, or completion as of 14 Jul 2026.
- Receivable cycles - maintain 60 to 90 days
Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided that receivable cycles are targeted to maintain 60 to 90 days. At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated the working capital cycle was reduced to around four months in FY26, still outside the 60-90 day range with no evidence of achievement.
- Industry-max margin - 20-25% by FY28
Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided that industry-specific max margin can achieve 20-25% by FY28. FY26 PAT margin was 11.4% and Q1 FY27 OPM was 17.23%, with the FY28 horizon not yet reached.
- Combined entity PBT - ₹34 cr in FY26, ₹62 cr by FY28
Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided combined entity PBT of ₹34 cr in FY26, rising to ₹62 cr by FY28. FY26 PBT was ₹39 cr, exceeding the explicit FY26 target, with the FY28 horizon still open.
- Combined entity revenue - ₹245 cr in FY26, ₹425 cr by FY28
Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided combined entity revenue of approximately ₹245 cr in FY26, rising to ₹425 cr by FY28. FY26 combined revenue was ₹248 cr, achieving the explicit FY26 target, with the FY28 horizon still open.
- Kidcity revenue - ₹30 cr in FY26, ₹120 cr by FY28
Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided Kidcity revenue of ₹30 cr in FY26, later revising the FY28 target upward to around ₹200-250 cr at the Q4 FY26 call. FY26 Kidcity revenue was around ₹24-25 cr, missing the ₹30 cr target, with the FY28 horizon open.
- Kidcity retail counters - 75+ counters by end of FY26
Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided that Karnika is moving forward with the aim of becoming 75 plus Kidcity retail counters by the end of FY26. As of Q4 FY26, the company reported operating 55 plus stores, falling materially short of the target with the FY26 deadline passed.