1. Bulkliner Logistics acquisition - 100% equity Pending - The FY25 annual report disclosed the acquisition of 100% equity share capital of Bulkliner Logistics Limited for aggregate consideration not exceeding ₹12,03,45,000. No further detail on completion status or financial impact is recorded in our notes.
2. Western and European countries - entry via agency network within 1-2 quarters Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided that entry into Western and European countries via agency network could be established within a quarter or two quarters. The Mediterranean region entry was paused due to the Red Sea crisis and Hamas-Israel conflict, and no explicit disclosure confirms Western/European entry was completed through FY26.
3. Gross margins - sustainable 15%-18% on a consolidated basis Pending - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided that on a sustainable basis, consolidated gross margins should be considerably between 15%-18%, later revised at the Q3 FY24 call to a conservative 13%-14% with a higher side of 18%-20%. The SQL snapshot reports annual OPM, not gross margin, so the FY25 and FY26 OPM figures of 2.15% and 0.14% do not directly confirm or contradict the gross margin guidance.
4. FY25 revenue growth - 35%-40% annual growth Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided for FY25 a growth of around 35% to 40% in terms of total capacity and turnover on an annual basis. FY25 revenue was ₹699.14 cr, growth of 10.38% over FY24 (SQL; D13 p.7), falling well short of the 35%-40% guided range.
5. Freight forwarding - expand from \~10%-12% to 20%-25% of turnover Pending - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided the freight forwarding arm would be expanded to somewhere around 20%-25% of total turnover. The Transco Logistix acquisition intended to boost forwarding was disinvested, and no disclosure of freight forwarding revenue share has been identified in the available sources through FY26.
6. Tank container business - \~50 tank containers, funded partly by QIP Pending - At the Q3 FY24 call, management stated they were planning to start the tank container business with around 50 containers, partly funded by QIP proceeds, and had already established Lancer Tank Containers. Our record holds no disclosure of tank container operations launching, containers being acquired, or any tank-container-related revenue through FY26.
7. QIP - ₹300 crore to add 30,000 TEUs in 1.5-2 years Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided a planned QIP of ₹300 crore to add another 30,000 TEUs within a span of 1.5 years to two years. No QIP was launched or completed; a fundraise of ₹51.69 cr on 29 Nov 2024 is noted but is far smaller and not described as a QIP, and no 30,000 TEU addition is recorded.
8. Transco Logistix acquisition - 60% stake, completion by Q1 FY25 Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management stated the Transco Logistix team will be fully operational in Lancer's office from 1st December, and the Q4 FY24 PPT and May 2024 announcement guided the acquisition of a 60% stake would be completed by Q1 FY25. The Q3 FY25 result states the Board ratified the decision to disinvest the entire 31.25% equity stake in Transco Logistix Worldwide Private Limited.
9. FY24 EBITDA margin - improve by 100 bps from FY24 Delivered - In the May 2023 announcement, management guided EBITDA margin would improve by 100 bps from FY24. FY23 EBITDA margin was 10.70% and FY24 EBITDA margin was 13.91% (SQL), an improvement of 321 bps that exceeded the 100 bps target.
10. FY24 revenue growth - 35%-40% over FY23 Missed - In the May 2023 announcement, management guided FY24 revenue growth of 35%-40% over FY23. FY24 revenue was ₹633.41 cr, a decline of 24.34% over FY23 (SQL; D7 p.22).
11. Debt-to-equity ratio - bring below 1:1 in the long term Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management stated they will bring the debt-to-equity ratio down to less than 1:1 in the long term. As of 13 Jul 2026, D/E is 0.04 (SQL), well below the 1:1 target.
12. Long-term EBITDA margins - maintain 12%-13% Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management committed to maintaining long-term EBITDA margins at 12%-13% once expansion kicks in, later revised at the Q2 FY24 call to a sustainable EBITDA margin of \~13% with 50-100 bps growth. FY24 EBITDA margin was 13.91%, but FY25 EBITDA margin collapsed to 2.15% and FY26 to 0.14% (SQL).
13. Turnover of \~₹1,000 crore - by FY24, then Q1 FY25 Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided that doubling capacity should lead to turnover of approximately ₹1,000 crore, later revised at the Q2 FY24 call to crossing this ₹1,000 crores turnover will be a quarter delay with achievement by Q1 FY25. FY24 revenue was ₹633.41 cr and FY25 full-year revenue was ₹699.14 cr (SQL; D13 p.7), never approaching ₹1,000 cr in any disclosed quarter through FY26.
14. Container capacity - double to above 20,000 TEUs in 2-3 years / by FY24 Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management committed to doubling container inventory from \~14,000 TEUs to above 20,000 TEUs within two to three years, later raised at the Q2 FY24 call to 24,000 TEUs by FY24. TEU volume for FY24 reached 19,699 units, effectively meeting the original 20,000 target, but the raised 24,000 TEU target was not met with the fleet at \~23,000-23,359 TEUs.
15. FY23 EBITDA margin - improve by 100 bps from FY22 Delivered - In the Feb 2022 announcement, management guided EBITDA margin would improve by 100 bps from FY22. FY22 EBITDA margin was 7.80% and FY23 EBITDA margin was 10.70% (SQL; D16 p.6), an improvement of 290 bps that exceeded the target.
16. FY23 revenue growth - 30%-40% over FY22 Delivered - In the Feb 2022 announcement, management guided FY23 revenue growth of 30%-40% over FY22. FY23 revenue was ₹837.17 cr, growth of 30.50% over FY22 (SQL; D16 p.6), within the guided range.
17. NSE listing - exploring and applying Pending - At the Q2 FY22 call, management stated they are exploring listing on NSE, and at the Q1 FY24 call guided they are freshly applying for a listing on NSE. Our record holds no disclosure of an NSE listing being completed through FY26.
18. Container manufacturing plant - feasibility study, 6-9 months from starting Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the container manufacturing plant is still six to nine months away at least from starting that and they are presently working with consultants on the feasibility report. At the Q3 FY23 call, management stated they tested feasibility but decided against it, citing inability to compete with China.
19. Cold storage business - \~10%-12% of revenue in three years Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the cold storage business is expected to contribute around 10% to 12% of revenue in three years. Our record holds no disclosure of a cold storage business being launched, operational, or contributing revenue through FY26.
20. FCCB issuance - up to $100 million in tranches Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided plans to issue FCCBs up to $100 million in tranches, later narrowed in the May 2022 announcement to unsecured FCCB up to USD 50 million. The company raised \~$30 million via FCCB, and as of 31 March 2025, 100% of FCCBs issued stand converted, with no further tranches recorded.
21. Container fleet addition - 2,500-3,000 containers in FY22 Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided adding 2,500 to 3,000 containers within this financial year. The company added 1,362 TEUs in Q4 FY22, taking the tally to 11,000+ TEUs for FY22, well short of the 2,500-3,000 guided range.
22. Dubai subsidiary Lancia Shipping - fully operational by December 2021 Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the Dubai subsidiary Lancia Shipping LLC should be fully operational by next month and from January your revenue is going to start from there also. Lancia Shipping LLC was incorporated in Dubai on 24 October 2021 and by the Q2 FY24 call was described as a 100% subsidiary started two years back and doing quite well.
23. FY22 EBITDA margin - improve to 10%-12% Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided FY22 EBITDA margins would improve to 10%-12%. FY22 EBITDA margin was 7.80% (SQL; D20 p.8), falling short of the 10%-12% guided range.
24. FY22 revenue growth - 80%-90% for the full year Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided FY22 revenue to grow at 80%-90% for the complete year. FY22 revenue from operations was ₹641.5 cr, growth of 105.21% over FY21, exceeding the target.