1. Auto margin to first hit FY19 levels (\~10% PBIT) then go higher Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management set a medium-term goal to first hit FY19 levels (\~10% PBIT margin) and then go higher, clarified as ICE-only excluding EVs. Auto standalone excl eSUV contract mfg PBIT% reached 10.0% in Q1 FY26, 10.4% in FY26 and 10.9% in Q4 FY26.
2. Logistics Express breakeven by end of Q2 FY25 Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management said the Logistics Express team had promised turnaround and breakeven by end of Q2 FY25, with Anish Shah saying "on track at this point in time". Express posted its first positive gross margin quarter only in Q2 FY26 and first profitable quarter after 11 quarters in Q3 FY26.
3. Farm sector FY25 growth of +5% Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said "on a balance we think the year will grow at plus 5%", to be revisited in July; the outlook was held at \~5% in Q1 FY25 and revised upward to 6-7% in Q2 FY25. Tractor volume grew 12% in FY25.
4. Product pipeline: 9 ICE SUVs, 7 BEVs, 7 LCVs by 2030 On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management committed to 9 ICE SUVs (3 refreshes, 6 all new), 7 Born Electric vehicles by 2030 and 7 LCVs of which 2 electric; by Q4 FY26, 5 ICE and 4 BEV were launched with the balance re-horizoned to 10 new ICE and 6 new BEVs by FY31. By FY26, 5 ICE SUVs, 4 BEVs and 4 LCVs were launched.
5. Temasek additional ₹900 crore to hit ₹1,200 crore; BII ₹1,200 crore already in Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said BII had already put in ₹1,200 crore, Temasek had put in ₹300 crore and would add ₹900 crore to reach ₹1,200 crore, with a further ₹725 crore BII transfer to be assessed over the next 7 months. The Temasek deal, signed just before the Q1 FY24 call in June 2023, valued the EV business at ₹80,580 crore, and PE funds raised ₹2,050 crore into MEAL and LMM Co in FY25.
6. Trucks & buses share to 7-8% in 12-15 months Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management said trucks & buses share would move up "significantly in the next 12 to 15 months", with 7-8% making it a 10,000-crore revenue business. Share moved from \~3.2% in Q3 FY24 to 6.0% combined with SML in FY26 and 7.8% in Q1 FY27.
7. SUV growth mid-to-high teens for FY25 Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided FY25 SUV growth of "mid-to-high teens", reiterated in Q1 FY25 and restated as 15-18% in Q2 FY25. SUV volumes grew 20% in FY25.
8. Electric three-wheelers to reach 74,000 units in FY24 Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said electric three-wheelers "will reach 74,000 units this year in terms of volume". FY24 E-3W volumes surpassed 66,000 units with 58.7% market share, falling short of the 74,000-unit target.
9. Real estate 8,000 crore residential sales by FY28 On track - At the Q2 FY24 call, management cited the real estate business's public commitment to 8,000 crore of residential sales in FY28; presales targets were later rounded up to 10,000 crore by FY31. Residential presales were ₹2,328 crore in FY24, ₹752 crore in Q2 FY26 and ₹925 crore in Q1 FY27.
10. Last Mile Mobility \~5x plan in three years Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said Last Mile Mobility was on a \~5x plan in three years. LMM grew from 14,000 vehicles/year to 78,000 by Q4 FY25, already 5x, with FY26 total sales of 136,425.
11. Farm machinery 40% growth for FY24 Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said "we would be very disappointed if we don't do 40%" growth in farm machinery, hoping for above 40% at Q2 before revising to "30%-plus" at Q3. Farm machinery grew 32% in FY24, with management "disappointed that we didn't do 40% growth".
12. Capital allocation - auto/farm cash not invested in services Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management committed that auto cash flow is for auto, farm cash for farm, services cash for services, with auto/farm cash not invested in services. Services generated ₹7,000 crore in F22-F24 with no cross-segment deployment evidenced.
13. Impairments reported as operating results, not exceptional items Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management committed that going forward impairments would be part of operating results, not exceptional items. Write-offs of ₹654 crore in Q4 FY25 and ₹1,400 crore of impairments from exiting three international subsidiaries in FY26 were reported within operating results.
14. New pickup portfolio to gear up LCV<3.5T for next 3-5 years Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said the new pickup portfolio would gear up the LCV<3.5T position for the next three to five years. LCV<3.5T share rose from 49.6% in Q3 FY24 to 51.9% in FY25, 52.3% in FY26 and 52.0% in Q1 FY27, with Veero launched to strong traction.
15. Last Mile Mobility spin-off into separate company Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said Last Mile Mobility would be spun off into a separate company with ₹600 crore expected from IFC. LMM moved to subsidiary effective 31st August FY24, with IFC investing at ₹6,000 crore valuation and NIIF India-Japan Fund at ₹6,600 crore.
16. OJA (K2) global launch on 15th August Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said OJA (codename K2) would have a global launch on 15th August with phased launches in India and worldwide. OJA launched on schedule, with a US launch cited in Q1 FY25 and 8.5% share of the US market captured.
17. Global markets 15-20% share target; Brazil tractors 15-20% Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said they would target 15-20% market share in anything they play globally, with Brazil tractors at 15-20%. Brazil tractor share moved from 6% at Q4 FY23 to 8.5% in FY25 and 6.6% in FY26.
18. Susten 5x growth plan over next five years On track - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said Susten had a 5x growth plan over the next five years with a new investor coming in, later detailed as 1.6 GW to 7 GW and raised to at least 7x, committed to delivery before fiscal 30. Susten won 2 GW of bids in FY24, 1,722 MWp YTD in Q3 FY25, commissioned 560 MWp in FY26 and held a 2.1 GWp portfolio.
19. F22-F24 investment plan of ₹15,900 crore net Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management updated the F22-F24 investment plan to total net investment of ₹15,900 crore over the three years. The window closed with operating cash of ₹37,000 crore, deployment of ₹17,500 crore and net cash generation of ₹19,700 crore, plus ₹4,833 crore capex in FY24.
20. EPS growth target of 15-20% annually reset from current base Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, the Board reset the EPS growth target to 15-20% annually from where they are today, reiterated at Q4 FY26 for the next 5 years. EPS grew at 84% CAGR since FY21 by Q4 FY24, 57% annualized over five years by FY26 and 34% in Q1 FY27.
21. Auto international operations to scale 2.5x by FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management committed to scaling up auto international operations two and a half times by FY26, reiterated as "Scale IO Revenue 2.5x by F26" at Q4 FY25. The FY26 deadline has lapsed with no disclosed revenue-based 2.5x outcome in the Q4 FY26 materials; auto exports rose only 19% to 40,106 units in FY26 vs 33,702 in FY25 - a different metric.
22. Tractor industry low single digit growth for FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected the tractor industry to grow at low single digits for FY24, to be updated by July; this was revised to flat at Q2 FY24 and to around -5% for the year at Q3 FY24. The tractor industry de-grew \~9% in FY24, with M&M volumes down \~7%.
23. XUV400 volume target of \~18,000 for FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management aimed to do about 18,000 XUV400 vehicles in FY24, back-ended to H2; by Q1 FY24 management said it may not do 18,000 and may do something lower, with production capped for the first 5-6 months. No explicit FY24 XUV400 volume was disclosed and volumes moderated in Q1 FY25.
24. EV capacity on top of 49,000 ICE; EVs 20-30% of portfolio in 3-4 years On track - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said EV capacity would be planned on top of the 49,000 ICE capacity, with EVs "in the next three to four years around 20% to 30% of our portfolio", later framed as 20-30% penetration by 2027. M&M EV penetration was 9.6% in FY26 and 12% in Q1 FY27.
25. SUV capacity to 49,000/month by Jan-Feb 2024 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said the 49,000/month SUV capacity "should be ready by Jan, Feb if not earlier" in calendar 2024, with the 39,000 capacity complete. M&M exited March FY24 at 49,000/month, on track as reaffirmed at Q2 FY24.
26. TREM-V for 25-50 hp tractors likely delayed Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management (as TMA President) said TREM-V for 25-50 hp tractors due 12 months out was most likely to be delayed, needing a four-year changeover, with even FY25 seeming very early; postponement later stood at 2026, then April '26 at draft level. No TREM-V implementation was disclosed through Q1 FY27 and the regulation remained postponed.
27. Zaheerabad plant expansion for electric vehicles Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management announced an MoU with the Telangana government to invest in expansion of the Zaheerabad plant to make electric vehicles. Zaheerabad is being converted primarily to an electric three-wheeler plant, with camper production moved to Haridwar.
28. Last Mile Mobility #1 position and $1 billion market cap in 3-5 years Pending - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said it wanted to be #1 in last mile mobility, with Anish Shah calling it a Growth Gem with a credible plan to reach a billion dollars market cap in three to five years. Leadership is delivered - 40%+ E-3W share maintained through F26 - but the market-cap leg shows only LMM valuations rising from about ₹6,000 crore in Q4 FY23 to ₹6,600 crore at the Q3 FY24 NIIF investment, with no cited evidence the $1 billion target has yet been met.
29. Born Electric program on target dates for three kicked-off products Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said the Born Electric program was on target dates for the three kicked-off products from the August Banbury announcement, with five launches "probably slightly ahead" and first production towards Q4 CY2024 for early-2025 launches. BE 6e and XEV 9e were revealed in November 2024 and in market early 2025, with 6 products launched by Q4 FY25 and 4 BEVs by FY26.
30. CAFE norms - no penalty expected with XUV400 launch Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said no CAFE penalty was expected with the XUV400 launch bridging any gap, and comfort in all scenarios. In FY24, M&M met CAFE II norms with full compliance, helped by XUV400 volumes.
31. Tech Mahindra turnaround plan after CEO succession On track - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said they were not happy with 20% ROE and current margin, planning a one-to-two-year turnaround after CEO succession, later set as a 300 bps margin increase first and a 15% EBIT margin by FY27. TechM EBIT margin rose from 9.7% in FY25 to 12.6% in FY26 and 14.4% in Q1 FY27, short of the 15% target.
32. SUV order book reduction from \~266,000 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management wanted to bring the order book down from \~266,000, saying two quarters at 260,000 would not be acceptable. Bookings stood at 286,000 in Q2 FY24, then fell to 226,000 by Q3 FY24 and 220,000 by Q4 FY24.
33. XUV400 \~20,000 bookings in first year Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management cited the original press release target of \~20,000 bookings in the first year for XUV400. XUV400 took 15,000 bookings in 13 days and crossed 20,000 orders by Q4 FY23.
34. No further investment beyond Battista in next set of models Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management publicly stated they were not investing further beyond the Battista in the next set of models and would look for potential investors. At Q3 FY26, Automobili Pininfarina was announced as not being continued forward and merged with Pininfarina.
35. Battista sales start shortly Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said Battista sales for Automobili Pininfarina would start "shortly in the next couple of months or so". By Q4 FY23, Automobili Pininfarina was on a good track with Battista sales started.
36. PMTC (Peugeot) Category A vs C classification final answer Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said PMTC classification was under review and they "will come back with a final answer" once complete. The PMTC transaction was signed 31st March and closed by 31st January FY23, with the impairment shown in Q4 numbers.
37. UV capacity from 27,000/month to 30,000+ Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said UV capacity of 27,000/month could go to "30,000+" once short-term supply constraints were resolved. Capacity reached 39,000/month by March FY23, then 49,000 by end FY24, 54,000 by Q2 FY25 and 56,500 ICE by FY26 exit.
38. Farm implements/farm machinery 10x revenue increase in four-five years Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management confirmed the farm machinery target of a 10x revenue increase in four-five years, restated as 10x by 2027 and 10x by FY26 from the FY23 base, before being recalibrated to "reasonable growth without diluting profits". Farm machinery revenue grew from ₹650 crore in FY23 to ₹1,024 crore in FY25 and ₹1,354 crore in FY26, roughly 2x against the \~₹6,500 crore implied by 10x.
39. Return cash to shareholders within three years Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management committed to starting the fourth focus - returning cash to shareholders - "within the next three years, it may be faster". Dividend rose close to 40% in FY23, the 30% payout ratio was maintained in Q4 FY24, and the FY26 dividend increased 30% in line with profit growth.
40. 300 bps automotive margin expansion in medium term Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management reiterated the 300 bps automotive margin expansion guidance in the medium term from a \~3.5% baseline. Margins were up 320 basis points by Q3 FY23, and auto EBIT margin reached 7.5% in Q1 FY24, back to FY19 levels.
41. Tractor industry growth of 3-5% for FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided tractor industry growth for the year "in the region of 3% to 5%" with upside caveats, revised upward at Q3 FY23 to crossing 10%. FY23 tractor volume grew 15%, with the industry at 9.5% CAGR FY20 to FY23.
42. Scorpio Classic launch in August 2022 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management committed to launching the Scorpio Classic "very soon in the course of August, this month" with pricing towards end-August. Scorpio Classic launched in that window, with demand "going through the roof" by Q3 FY23 and bookings a "big surprise" by Q2 FY24.
43. EV strategy reveal on 15th August 2022 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said the EV strategy would be revealed on 15th August at 5pm IST via webcast, with a schedule to be put out. The Born Electric program was announced at the August Banbury announcement, with the three kicked-off products confirmed on target dates by Q3 FY23.
44. Farm sector "bold & aggressive growth trajectory" with global businesses moving to growth Partial - At the Q1 FY21 call, management presented a "bold & aggressive growth trajectory" for the Farm sector, with global businesses moving "from consolidation to growth". All international Farm subsidiaries were profitable in Q1 FY22 with highest-ever PBIT of ₹311 crore in FY22, but international farm subsidiaries swung to aggregate losses of ₹104 crore in FY25 and ₹1,400 crore impairments in FY26.
45. MMFSL turnaround plan - collections, disbursement growth, GNPA stability, cross-sell Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management committed to a turnaround via sharp focus on collections, disbursement growth in higher-performing segments, reduced GNPA volatility, data/digital leverage and cross-sell, later targeting stage-III under 8% in downturns and GS3/GNPA below 4.5% in normal times. GS3 fell from 15.5% GNPA to 3.4% by Q4 FY24, held under 4% through FY26 with Q1 FY27 at 3.45%, and ROA reached 2.4% in Q1 FY27.
46. XUV700 reveal in Q2 FY22 Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, the XUV700 reveal was scheduled for Q2 FY22. XUV700 was revealed and launched as scheduled, with 100,000 bookings within 30 minutes noted in the Scorpio N launch context by Q1 FY23 and 95% AX series bookings.
47. 23 new products by 2026 in Auto business Partial - At the Q1 FY21 call, management committed to 23 new products by 2026 in the Auto business, later restated at Q4 FY24 as 9 ICE SUVs, 7 Born Electric vehicles by 2030 and 7 LCVs, and updated at Q4 FY26 to 10 new ICE and 6 new BEVs by FY31. By FY26, 5 ICE SUVs and 4 BEVs were launched, with no explicit scorekeeping against the original 23-product count.
48. Path to 18% ROE for Category A entities by FY26 Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management reiterated a path to 18% ROE for Category A entities (PMTC and Farm subsidiaries by PAT) with an FY26 target column, maintained through Q4 FY23 at 19.9% and explicitly not raised despite a 20% print at Q2 FY24. Group ROE closed FY23 at 19.9%, FY26 at 20% and Q1 FY27 at 23%, with the PMTC transaction closed by 31st January FY23.
49. Reversal of 80-90% of additional ECL provision by Q3/Q4 FY22 (MMFSL) Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management committed to reversing 80-90% of the additional ECL provision booked in Q1 FY22 by Q3/Q4 FY22. The ₹2,500 crore provision was fully recouped over the next three quarters, with management stating "we actually did better than what we committed" on reversals.