1. BTS warehouse network - 0.6 crore sq ft capacity by end of FY25 Missed - In the FY24 annual report, management planned to keep expanding the built-to-suit (BTS) warehouse network to 0.6 crore sq ft capacity by end of 2024-25. BTS capacity stood at \~0.44 crore sq ft as of 31 March 2024; by Q4 FY25 only \~1+ million sq ft BTS was under development with no further BTS expansion planned, and the 0.6 crore sq ft target was not achieved by FY25.
2. Last mile delivery profitability - improve from Q4 FY26 onwards Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management expected last mile delivery profitability "to improve from Q4FY26 onwards". Q4 FY26 Last Mile Delivery EBITDA was ₹2.2 cr, up 82.1% YoY, and Q1 FY27 EBITDA reached ₹2.6 cr versus -₹0.5 cr in Q1 FY26.
3. White space - reduce by 95% by September 2026 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management committed to reduce warehousing white space cost by \~95% (retaining \~5% for exigencies) by September 2026, reiterated at Q3 FY26 and Q1 FY27. 20% reduction was achieved by Q2 FY26, 9 lakh sq ft was cut in FY26, and Q1 FY27 confirmed the business on track for the September 2026 deadline, which has not yet arrived.
4. Rights issue proceeds - ₹556.3 cr for debt repayment Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management intended to utilize ₹556.3 cr of rights issue net proceeds towards partial or full repayment of select borrowings. By Q2 FY26, consolidated debt had fallen from ₹601 cr at end of Q1 to ₹73 cr, with the standalone entity carrying no debt as of 30 September 2025.
5. Rights issue - raise \~₹750 cr Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management committed to raising approximately ₹750 cr through a rights issue. The ₹749.27 cr rights issue was completed in August 2025, fully subscribed with 2,70,49,301 shares allotted at ₹277 per share.
6. BTS expansion - no further plans beyond current \~1 million sq ft Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, CFO Saurabh Taneja stated the \~1+ million sq ft in the deck is the last of the company's BTS expansion, with no further plans or sites announced. At Q2 FY26 the company confirmed no new BTS space addition was planned, and no new BTS expansion was announced through Q1 FY27.
7. Noida International Airport mobility services - start as airport opens Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said Noida International Airport mobility services should start "as the airport opens up right in the coming quarters". By Q1 FY27, MLL was the airport's preferred taxi partner with the B2C airport taxi business launched, and fleet scaling as flight capacity is added.
8. Express - 200 bps market share growth over 4 quarters Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management targeted 200 bps of market share growth in Express over 4 quarters. By Q2 FY26, management stated Express had not gained market share, with share roughly the same, and no gain was disclosed at Q3 FY26.
9. Seino JV - operating results toward tail end of FY25 Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected the Seino JV to start seeing operating results "towards the tail end of this financial year" (FY25). At Q3 FY26 the team was in place with no material revenue yet, and at Q1 FY27 revenue remained immaterial with wins expected "in the next year".
10. Whizzard and Lords - PAT positive in FY25 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected Whizzard and Lords to be PAT-positive in FY25. FY25 closed with Lords PAT at ₹6.3 cr and Whizzard PAT at ₹0.5 cr, both positive.
11. Mobility business - PAT positive for full year FY25 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected the mobility business to be profitable for the full year FY25. Quarterly PAT of ₹1.7 cr, ₹1.6 cr, \~₹0.76 cr and ₹1.3 cr through FY25 added up to full-year MLL Mobility PAT of ₹5.4 cr.
12. Overall portfolio - early teen growth rate for FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected "early teen kind of growth rate across the entire portfolio" for FY25. FY25 revenue came in at ₹6,105 cr, up 10.88%, below the early-teen growth target.
13. Last mile gross margin - from \~5% to 8% Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management targeted last mile gross margins from \~5% "up to 8%", with margins at \~5-5.5% that quarter. By Q1 FY27, last mile gross margin had reached 9%, exceeding the 8% target.
14. Last mile delivery - high teens to early 20% growth in FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected last mile delivery to deliver "high teens or even probably early 20-percentage kind of growth" in FY25. Instead, FY25 Last Mile Delivery revenue was ₹381.3 Cr, and FY26 revenue fell 14.5% to ₹325.9 Cr with EBITDA turning negative at -₹1.5 Cr.
15. EBITDA margin - 2.5-3% for contract logistics, 3-4% for network businesses Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management reiterated EBITDA margin expectations of 2.5-3% for contract logistics and 3-4% for network businesses. FY26 delivered Contract Logistics EBITDA of ₹388.9 cr on ₹5,490.3 cr revenue (7.1%), above target, while network services posted an aggregate EBITDA loss of ₹22.3 cr on ₹1,122.7 cr revenue (-2.0%), below the 3-4% target.
16. Network services - scale to ₹750-800 cr over next three years Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected network services to scale to ₹750-800 cr over "the next three years or a little bit more than three years". FY26 network services revenue reached ₹1,122.7 cr (Express ₹448.8 cr, Freight Forwarding ₹348.0 cr, Last Mile ₹325.9 cr), exceeding the band a year ahead of the inferred FY27 horizon.
17. Contract logistics run-rate - return to double-digit growth by end of FY24 Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided the contract logistics run-rate should return to double-digit growth by the end of FY24. Q3 FY24 growth was \~13% overall but FY24 3PL revenue closed at ₹5,178 cr versus ₹4,868 cr in FY23, a 6.4% increase, short of double digits.
18. BTS facilities - \~0.23 crore sq ft addition in 15 months Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided that new BTS facilities at Chakan, Talegaon, Kolkata and Guwahati would add \~0.23 crore sq ft of multi-client warehousing capacity "in the next 15 months". Guwahati and Kolkata operations commenced in Q2 FY25, but Kolkata's second half was slated to commission only by Aug/Sep 2025, and Pune and Agartala went live only in Q1 FY26 - well past the deadline, with the full 0.23 crore sq ft quantum never confirmed.
19. Whizzard - breakeven by exit of FY24 Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided Whizzard (last-mile) to reach breakeven "by the exit of this year" (FY24). Q4 FY24 Whizzard PAT was \~₹10 lakhs, just about breakeven, after a Q3 loss of ₹2 cr that included ₹2.2 cr of one-time charges; FY24 closed with a ₹1.0 cr PAT loss.
20. Whizzard second tranche - complete in Q3 FY24, making MLL majority owner Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided to complete the second tranche of investment in Whizzard in the upcoming quarter, making MLL a majority owner. In Q3 FY24 the second tranche was completed, taking MLL's equity to 60% on a fully diluted basis with consolidation from that point.
21. Express volume growth - 12.5-13% annualized, 4-5 years Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided 12.5% to 13% annualized growth secularly over the next four or five years. Volumes were volatile: down 25-30% QoQ in Q1 FY24 during network integration, \~10% growth in Q3 FY24, then 19% YoY in Q3 FY26 and 58% YoY revenue growth in Q1 FY27, with the annual target not consistently achieved.
22. Freight forwarding - recover to peak quarterly revenue in H1 FY24-FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management "fully expect[s] to be able to get back to" freight forwarding peak quarterly revenue of ₹112-118 cr in "the first half of FY '24-FY '25". Quarterly Lords revenue ranged from ₹53 cr in Q2 FY24 to ₹86.8 cr in Q2 FY25, never reaching the ₹112-118 cr peak.
23. Freight forwarding - grow at 18-20% to ₹900-1,000 cr by FY26-FY27 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management reiterated the freight forwarding aspiration to grow at 18-20%, implying FY26-FY27 revenue of \~₹900 cr to ₹1,000 cr annualized. FY26 Freight Forwarding revenue was ₹348.0 cr and Q1 FY27 brought ₹45.3 cr, far below the target band.
24. Express business - north of ₹1,000 cr revenue in 4-5 years On track - At the Q4 FY23 call, management's long-term direction for the express business was revenues "north of ₹1,000 crores", doubling over four to five years; at Q3 FY24 this was framed as ₹800 cr "in the next 3 years or so". FY26 Express revenue was ₹448.8 cr with Q1 FY27 at ₹152.4 cr, growing but still well short with the inferred FY27-FY28 horizon not yet reached.
25. Express business - PAT breakeven on running basis by end of FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected the express business to reach PAT breakeven "on a running basis by the end of this year" (FY24); the timeline was later moved to end of FY25, then to 24-27 months from acquisition. Losses persisted throughout: FY24 MESPL PAT loss ₹123.6 cr, FY25 loss ₹97.3 cr, and EBITDA losses of ₹2.5 cr in Q4 FY26 and ₹1.6 cr in Q1 FY27.
26. Annual contract win run-rate - \~₹100 cr sustained through FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected the annual contract win run-rate of \~₹100 cr to be sustained through FY24. Order intake ran at \~₹130 cr in Q1, over ₹100 cr in Q2, over ₹150 cr in Q3 and over ₹100 cr in Q4 FY24.
27. Capex - 1.7%-2% of revenue range Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected capex in the 1.7%-2% of revenue range; at Q1 FY26 the CFO lowered the target, guiding capex to a normalized \~1.5% of revenue. FY26 capex came in at ₹65.19 cr on revenue of ₹6,999 cr, or 0.93%, below even the revised 1.5% target.
28. 2x2 business - turnaround to profitability in FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected the 2x2 business turnaround to consolidate back to profitability in FY24. Every quarter of FY24 was profitable - \~₹20 lakhs, ₹1 cr, ₹74 lakhs and ₹1.1 cr - closing the year with revenue of ₹55.3 cr and PAT of ₹1.9 cr.
29. Mobility business - breakeven in FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected MLL Mobility to breakeven in FY24, reiterated at Q1 FY24 on a fully consolidated basis. After a ₹1.8 cr PAT loss in Q1 FY24, the business turned PAT-positive from Q2 onwards, closing FY24 with revenue of ₹333.3 cr and PAT of ₹1.8 cr.
30. 18% ROE by FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management reiterated the medium/long-term target of north of 18% return on equity, restated at Q1 FY24 as 18% ROE by FY26. FY26 ROE came in at 0.90%, far below the target.
31. 3PL business - grow at mid-teens to ₹6,500 cr revenue Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected the 3PL business to grow at "mid-teens" annually to ₹6,500 cr, reiterated at Q2 FY24 over "the next 3.5 years" and recalibrated at Q4 FY24 to 15-17% growth to \~₹6,000 cr over three years. FY26 3PL revenue reached ₹6,613 cr (up from ₹5,789 cr in FY25), crossing ₹6,500 cr ahead of the inferred FY27 horizon.
32. 3PL contract logistics order intake - ₹400-500 cr annualized Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said it had been targeting ₹400-500 cr annualized 3PL contract logistics order intake. Cited quarterly ACVs - \~₹130 cr in Q1, over ₹150 cr in Q3 and over ₹100 cr in Q4 - sum to roughly ₹480 cr, within the guided range, though Q2 intake is not cited.
33. 3PL freight forwarding margins - hold or improve Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management expected to hold or improve 3PL freight forwarding margins. Gross margin percentage improved marginally YoY in Q3 FY23 and margin levels held through FY24 even as revenue fell sharply - Lords revenue dropped 50% YoY in Q2 FY24 to ₹53 cr - with Q4 FY24 PAT up 33% YoY at ₹1.2 cr.
34. ₹10,000 crore revenue aspiration - over next 3-4 years (by FY26) Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management reiterated its aspiration to become a ₹10,000 crores revenue company "over the next three, four years", later reiterated by FY26 in the Q4 FY24 PPT, before the Q3 FY26 call said a new long-term vision would be shared in due course. FY26 revenue was ₹6,999 cr, roughly 30% short of the ₹10,000 cr target.
35. Non-Mahindra 3PL growth - 15-20% annually; overall non-Mahindra north of 25% Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management's goal was to grow non-Mahindra 3PL businesses by 15% to 20% every year, with overall non-Mahindra business including network services growing "north of 25%". Non-M&M SCM grew 12% in Q2 FY23 and declined \~2% YoY in Q3 FY23, with no growth figures explicitly disclosed for FY24 or FY25.
36. Rivigo express business - EBITDA positive in next few quarters Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management expected the Rivigo express business to generate positive EBITDA "in the next few quarters", with combined express EBITDA positive "in the coming quarter"; the deadline was then pushed repeatedly through Q3 FY24, Q2 FY25 and Q2 FY26. Losses narrowed steadily - EBITDA loss of ₹18.5 cr in Q1 FY24, ₹14.8 cr in Q4 FY24, ₹2.5 cr in Q4 FY26 and ₹1.6 cr in Q1 FY27 with gross margin at 6% - but EBITDA breakeven had not been achieved as of Q1 FY27.
37. Network services - grow from \~20% to 30% of revenue Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated the long-term vision for network services (Freight Forwarding, B2B Express, Last Mile) to grow from \~20% to 30% of revenue. In FY26 the three segments totaled \~16% of revenue (Express ₹448.83 cr, Freight Forwarding ₹348.01 cr, Last Mile ₹325.87 cr), with no disclosure of the 30% share being reached.
38. Long-term warehousing addition - \~2 crore sq ft over five years (by FY26) Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management reiterated the long-term target of \~2 crore sq ft of warehousing over five years, on track by the middle of the following year, later committing to 0.25-0.3 crore sq ft of annual additions. From 1.75 crore sq ft at FY22 exit, managed space reached 2.16 crore sq ft by Q2 FY25 and \~2.1 crore sq ft at Q1 FY27, crossing the target ahead of the inferred FY26 deadline.
39. Warehousing addition - 0.15-0.2 crore sq ft in FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management estimated adding 0.15-0.2 crore sq ft of warehousing in FY23. From an FY22 exit of 1.34 crore sq ft, space excluding stockyards was up 10% sequentially to 1.53 crore sq ft by Q3 FY23, roughly 0.2 crore sq ft added, and \~1.9 crore sq ft was managed by Q4 FY23.
40. 2x2 fleet rebuild - complete by end of Q2 FY23 Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management expected the 2x2 fleet rebuild to be completed fully by the end of the current quarter. But the rebuild was still incomplete at end Q2 FY23 with retro fitment ongoing, the operating fleet was only almost completely on road by Q4 FY23, and it was fully operational and back in profit in Q1 FY24.
41. Gross margin improvement - 25-30 bps annually Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management reiterated past guidance of "25 to 30 bps kind of guidance we have given in the past on gross margin improvement", later widened to 30-50 bps for 3PL and 25-50 bps consolidated. Gross margin rose from 9.7% in FY21 to \~10% in FY23 but slipped to 9.4% by FY25, before recovering 60 bps to 10.0% in FY26 and 28 bps to 9.7% in Q1 FY27.
42. Whizzard acquisition - financially accretive in FY23 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said the Whizzard (ZipZap Logistics) acquisition "will be financially accretive included in this financial year" (FY23). Whizzard instead added a ₹30 lakhs share of net loss in Q1 FY23, its H1 loss widened from ₹1.9 cr to ₹2.8 cr, and FY23 losses grew from ₹4.4 cr to ₹7.5 cr on revenue of \~₹130 cr.
43. Meru losses - significantly lower in FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected "a significant increase in the business of Meru, and therefore, much lower levels of losses in the company financial fiscal year" (FY23). H1 FY23 losses narrowed to ₹4.2 cr from ₹10.8 cr, and FY23 MLL Mobility losses narrowed from ₹19.5 cr to ₹8.6 cr on revenue of ₹185 cr, up from ₹58 cr.
44. Meru acquisition - close by middle of Q1 FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management targeted closing the Meru acquisition "through the middle of this quarter" (Q1 FY23). The acquisition was completed within Q1 FY23, with Meru contributing ₹22 cr of full-quarter revenue and a ₹2 cr PAT loss in the quarter.
45. Bajaj Electricals project implementation - complete by Q1 FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said the Bajaj Electrical project implementation was "scheduled to be completed fully through Q1 of FY2023" and "largely on track", with completion pulled forward to the early part of Q2 FY23 at the Q1 FY23 call. The project was confirmed complete in early Q2 FY23; subsequently, the Bajaj account was restructured in Q4 FY23, dropping \~0.06 crore sq ft of warehousing with Q4 Bajaj revenue of \~₹14 cr, down ₹32 cr YoY.