1. NPC acquisition expected to be earnings accretive at 15-18% EBITDA margin and 11-14% PAT margin Delivered - At the Q1 FY27 PPT, management guided the NPC acquisition to be earnings accretive at 15-18% EBITDA margin and 11-14% PAT margin. Q1 FY27 NPC operated at almost 21% EBITDA margin; NPC CY2025 EBITDA margin was 24.8% and PAT margin 18.1%, exceeding both guided ranges.
2. FY2030E consolidated revenue of \~₹8,500 cr with EBITDA margin 15-17% Pending - At the Q4 FY26 PPT, management guided FY2030E consolidated (India + KSA) potential of revenue ₹\~8,500 cr, EBITDA margin \~15-17% and PAT margin \~9-12%. The FY2030 horizon is not reached; Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue was ₹1,053 cr with EBITDA margin of 14.6%.
3. Company to grow at \~22-25% CAGR over next 3-4 years with margin expansion of 150-200 bps On track - At the FY26 annual report, management stated the company is well poised to grow at \~22-25% CAGR over the next 3-4 years, with margin expansion of 150-200 basis points over the same period. The horizon is not reached; Q1 FY27 revenue grew 41.9% YoY with EBITDA margin of 14.6%.
4. Steel bends and connectors - operational by Q1 FY23 Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided Steel Bends & value-added products at Anjar (capex ₹100 cr) operational by April 2022, revised to Q1 FY23 with volumes of \~5,500-6,000 bends annually and capex lowered to ₹50 cr, then completion by Q3 FY23 at the FY22 annual report. The business started with an initial order of \~₹20 cr at good margin, to reflect in results from Q3 FY24; no commissioning date was disclosed.
5. ERW steel pipes line - operational by Q2 FY23 Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided the ERW steel pipes line at Anjar (1,25,000 MTPA, capex \~₹150 cr) operational by May 2022, revised to Q1 FY23, then Q2 FY23 with capex \~₹170 cr, and Q4 FY23 at the FY22 annual report. The company entered the ERW business in Q4 FY23, inaugurating the first Anjar plant for ERW API Grade Line Pipes; value-added API pipe production started in Q4 FY24 after certification delays.
6. EBITDA margin improvement over next 3 years (from Q3 FY23) Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management set a goal of further EBITDA margin improvement over the next 3 years, reiterated in Q4 FY23 and Q1 FY24. FY23 consolidated OPM was 6.14% and FY26 was 12.33%, an improvement of \~620 bps over the period.
7. Revenue CAGR of 18-20% over next 3 years (from Q3 FY23) Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management set a goal of revenue CAGR of 18-20% over the next 3 years, reiterated in Q4 FY23 and Q1 FY24. FY23 revenue was ₹2,231 cr and FY26 revenue was ₹3,564 cr, a CAGR of \~16.9% over FY23-FY26, short of the 18-20% target.
8. Peak total debt of \~₹1,600 cr in FY27, ₹1,400 cr by FY28 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, the CFO guided peak total debt of around ₹1,600 cr in FY27 and ₹1,400 cr by FY28 as repayments start. The company was net cash positive at FY26 year-end at ₹157.5 cr; FY27 is in progress with NPC acquisition loan drawdowns ongoing.
9. FY27 finance cost of \~₹190 cr On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, the CFO guided full-year FY27 finance cost of around ₹190 cr at the consolidated level. Q1 FY27 finance cost was \~₹39-40 cr, annualizing to \~₹160 cr; FY27 is in progress.
10. FY27 India business revenue of \~₹3,800 cr On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided FY27 India business at around ₹3,800 cr. Q1 FY27 standalone revenue was ₹1,010 cr; FY27 is in progress.
11. FY28 Saudi/NPC top line of ₹2,400-3,000 cr Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided FY28 Saudi/NPC top line at between ₹2,400 to 3,000 cr. The FY28 horizon is not reached; NPC CY2025 revenue was \~₹1,899 cr.
12. FY28 Jammu top line addition of ₹200-300 cr Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided Jammu to add "probably 2 to 300 crores" to top line in its first year, FY28. The Jammu plant was not yet in commercial production as of Q1 FY27; the FY28 horizon is not reached.
13. FY27 consolidated revenue of \~₹5,000 cr On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided consolidated revenue of \~₹5,000 cr for FY27, including \~₹1,500 cr from NPC, reiterated at the Q1 FY27 announcement with EBITDA margin of 13-15% as on track. Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue was ₹1,053 cr with EBITDA margin of 14.6%; FY27 is in progress.
14. $5 million upgrade plan for NPC over next 3 years On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management committed a $5 million upgrade plan for NPC over the next 3 years. In Q1 FY27, the NPC spiral mill upgrade to 100-inch capability was "almost completed" with trials underway; the 3-year horizon is not reached.
15. NPC acquisition debt of $70 million at 6.5-7% Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated NPC acquisition debt of $70 million priced at approximately 6.5-7% in USD, taken locally at the KSA subsidiary. The acquisition completed 21 May 2026 with $70 million debt plus $32 million equity; Q1 FY27 finance cost included \~40-45 days of interest on the NPC loan.
16. FY27 capex of \~₹580 cr On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, the CFO guided FY27 capex of roughly ₹580 cr at a consolidated level, revised at Q1 FY27 to around ₹600 cr with \~₹350 cr already done and \~₹250 cr ongoing. Q1 FY27 capex of \~₹350 cr was done; FY27 is in progress.
17. NPC revenue of ₹1,500-2,000 cr for FY27 with EBITDA margin \~15%-plus On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided NPC revenue of ₹1,500-2,000 cr for FY27 with EBITDA margin approximately 15%-plus, revised at Q1 FY27 to \~₹1,500 cr with margins between 15-18%. Q1 FY27 NPC contributed \~₹43 cr in 15-20 days, with quarterly run rate guided at ₹300-500 cr from Q2 FY27; FY27 is in progress.
18. Dammam coating facility - commissioning by mid-2027 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management committed approximately $40 million for pipe coating facilities in Dammam, commissioning targeted by mid-2027, with annual coating capacity 0.4 crore square meters, asset turnover 1x and EBITDA margins 25-35%, revised at Q1 FY27 to operations commencing by March 2027. The facility was under construction as of Q1 FY27 with no production yet.
19. FY28 consolidated topline of \~₹7,000 cr achievable by 2028 Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said the \~₹7,000 cr revenue guidance stands as achievable "by 2028", subject to commodity prices, with FY28 growth of around 25-30% from FY27 reiterated at Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27. The FY28 horizon is not reached; FY27 revenue is guided at \~₹5,000 cr.
20. Merino revenues of ₹70-100 cr in FY27 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said Merino revenues will start in FY27 itself, expected ₹70-100 cr in FY27, revised at Q1 FY27 to cash inflows of ₹35-50 cr in FY27. Q1 FY27 Merino contributed no revenue, with project launch expected mid-September 2026; FY27 is in progress.
21. Real estate project launch in March 1st week Partial - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said the real estate (Merino Shelters/Paradise Group) project launch was in March 1st week, with RERA approval underway, revised at Q1 FY27 to a launch around mid-September 2026. A Commencement Certificate for \~20,00,000 sq ft along with RERA registration was received; the launch slipped \~6 months to mid-September 2026.
22. FY27 EBITDA margin of 13-14% sustained On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management expected to sustain 13-14% EBITDA margin for FY27 at consolidated level, revised to constant 13-15% going forward at Q4 FY26 and to 14-16% for the next three to five years at Q1 FY27. Q1 FY27 consolidated EBITDA margin was 14.6%; FY27 is in progress.
23. H2 FY26 revenue of ₹2,200-2,400 cr Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, the CFO guided H2 FY26 revenue of ₹2,200 cr to ₹2,400 cr. Q3 FY26 revenue was ₹830 cr and Q4 FY26 was ₹1,157 cr, making H2 FY26 revenue ₹1,987 cr, below the guided range.
24. FY26 EBITDA margin of 11-12% Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected to maintain double-digit EBITDA margin between 11% and 12% for FY26, upgraded at Q3 FY26 to 13-14% EBITDA. FY26 consolidated EBITDA margin was 13.0% and standalone 14.0%, within the upgraded range.
25. FY27 PAT margin of 5-5.5% On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, the CFO guided FY27 PAT margin in the range of 5% to 5.5%. Q1 FY27 consolidated PAT margin was 5.8% and standalone 7.6%; FY27 is in progress.
26. Saudi business to reach ₹3,500-4,000 cr with current expansions On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, the Chairman said the Saudi business, beginning at ₹2,000 cr in year one, aims to reach ₹3,500-4,000 cr with current expansions, later tied to peak revenue potential of ₹3,500-4,000 cr at 80-85% utilization in FY28-FY29. NPC CY2025 revenue was \~₹1,899 cr with FY27 NPC revenue guided at \~₹1,500 cr; the FY28-FY29 horizon is not reached.
27. Saudi plant utilization of 50% in first year Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, the Chairman guided Saudi plant utilization of around 50% in the first year, ramping up thereafter, with year-1 utilization of 50-60% reiterated at Q3 FY26. The greenfield Saudi plant was scrapped, with NPC instead providing 430,000 MT capacity; Q1 FY27 NPC contributed \~₹43 cr in 15-20 days.
28. Jammu plant utilization of 40% in year one, 70% in year two Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, the Chairman guided Jammu plant utilization of around 40% in year one, rising to around 70% in year two, revised at Q4 FY26 to 35-40% in FY28, its first year of operation. The Jammu plant was not yet in commercial production as of Q1 FY27; the FY28 horizon is not reached.
29. Jammu EBITDA margin of 18-22% Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, the Chairman guided Jammu (stainless steel seamless tubes) EBITDA margin of around 18% to 22%, revised at Q3 FY26 to around 17-18%. The Jammu plant was not yet in commercial production as of Q1 FY27, so no margin data is available yet.
30. Jammu plant FY27 contribution of \~₹500 cr On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, the Chairman guided Jammu plant FY27 contribution of around ₹500 cr in year one, revised to \~₹300 cr at Q3 FY26 and "probably 2 to 300 crores" at Q1 FY27. The Jammu plant was not yet in commercial production as of Q1 FY27; FY27 is in progress.
31. Saudi plant full capacity within \~2 years of Q3 FY26 start Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided Saudi plant full capacity utilization within roughly 2 years of commercial production starting Q3 FY26, later mapped to peak utilization of 80-85% in FY28-FY29. The greenfield Saudi plant was scrapped, with NPC instead providing 430,000 MT capacity and peak utilization now guided for FY28-FY29.
32. Merino revenue of \~₹80 cr in FY26, then \~₹120 cr every year Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, the CFO guided \~₹80 cr revenue in the first year (FY26) and then \~₹120 cr every year over the next five years from the Merino Shelter/real estate share, later restated as an average of ₹100-120 cr per year over 5-6 years, with subsequent revisions to ₹70-100 cr in FY27 and ₹35-50 cr cash inflows in FY27. Merino contributed no revenue in FY26, so the FY26 expectation of ₹70-80 cr was not met.
33. Merino monetization value of ₹650-700 cr over 5-6 years On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management estimated Merino Shelters' share of developed property has a monetization value of ₹650-700 cr in 5-6 years, later revised through \~₹700 cr over five years, ₹600-700 cr over 6-7 years, ₹800-900 cr over 7 years and ₹700-800 cr over 5-6 years. ₹368 cr was booked as sales revenue in Q4 FY25 with ₹70 cr received upfront; launch is expected mid-September 2026.
34. FY26 volume growth of \~20-25% Pending - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided FY26 volume growth of around 20-25%. FY26 has ended but no volume tonnage outcome appears in our record; the Q2 FY26 call noted Indian operations did \~40% of full-year estimation in H1, and only revenue (FY26 ₹3,564 cr, +1.67%) is available, so the volume outcome cannot be settled.
35. FY26 consolidated revenue of ₹5,500 cr Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management quantified consolidated FY26 revenue guidance at ₹5,500 cr, with the CFO "hopeful of achieving ₹5,500 cr guidance in FY26", later revised to H2 FY26 of ₹2,200-2,400 cr implying \~₹3,700 cr for the year and then retired/upgraded to ₹3,600-3,700 cr. FY26 consolidated revenue was ₹3,564 cr, far below the ₹5,500 cr guidance.
36. FY26 standalone revenue of \~₹4,000 cr (\~20-25% growth) Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided FY26 standalone top line at around ₹4,000 cr (\~25% growth over FY25), reiterated at Q4 FY25 and revised down to \~20% growth and then 15-20% over standalone ₹3,130 cr. FY26 standalone revenue was ₹3,455 cr, up 10.8% YoY, and consolidated revenue was ₹3,564 cr, up 1.7%, missing both the ₹4,000 cr target and the revised 15-20% growth guidance.
37. Merino first tranche of ₹40-50 cr in FY25 Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management confirmed the ₹40-50 cr first tranche from Merino targeted for receipt in FY25 was coming. ₹70 cr upfront consideration was received in Q4 FY25, exceeding the guided range.
38. Saudi margins of 12-13% (later 12-14%) Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided Saudi margins of around 12-13%, slightly higher than the India business, later revised to 12-14% and 12-15% at Q2 FY26, 15-18% at peak utilization at Q4 FY26 and 15-18% for NPC at Q1 FY27. NPC CY2025 EBITDA margin was 24.8% and Q1 FY27 NPC ran at almost 21%; no Saudi greenfield plant exists.
39. Saudi plant revenue of \~$500 million at full stabilization On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided approximately $0.5 billion (\~$500 million) top line from Saudi Arabia once the factory is fully stabilized at 75-80% efficiency, later revised to \~₹2,000 cr at full capacity, ₹3,500-4,000 cr peak at 80-85% utilization in FY28-FY29 and ₹2,400-3,000 cr for FY28. NPC CY2025 revenue was \~₹1,899 cr with Q1 FY27 contributing \~₹43 cr from 15-20 days of consolidation; the stabilization horizon is not reached.
40. Saudi LSAW plant - operations from Q2-Q3 FY26 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said the Saudi LSAW plant (3 lakh tons) was on track to start operations from Q2-Q3 of FY26, with start dates successively pushed through Q3 FY26, Q3/Q4 FY26, Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 trials. At Q4 FY26, management withdrew the 3-lakh MTP LSAW greenfield facility in Dammam, reasoning NPC already provides \~4,30,000-4,50,000 ton capacity, replacing it with the NPC acquisition of 430,000 MT capacity completed in May 2026.
41. Double-digit EBITDA margin for full year FY25 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management reaffirmed double-digit EBITDA margin for the overall full year FY25. FY25 consolidated EBITDA margin was 9.93% and consolidated OPM 8.60%; Q4 FY25 reached 11.1% but the full-year figure was below 10%.
42. FY25 volume growth of \~30-40% Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided FY25 volume growth of \~30-40% versus last year's \~300,000 tons. The Q2 FY25 call noted \~40% plus volume growth in H1, Q3 FY25 noted 9M volume slightly higher than last year with tonnage not available, and Q4 FY25 management again asserted FY25 volume growth but said FY25/FY24 volume numbers were not available; no FY25 tonnage disclosure exists in our record, so the guided 30-40% outcome cannot be verified.
43. FY25 revenue target of \~15% growth / ₹3,300-3,400 cr Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided FY25 full-year revenue of \~15% above last year's \~₹3,000 cr top line, later stated as ₹3,300-3,400 cr, with the ₹3,300 cr guideline reiterated at Q3 FY25. FY25 consolidated revenue was ₹3,505 cr, up 11.56% YoY, with standalone revenue \~₹3,500 cr, exceeding the ₹3,300 cr floor though growth fell short of 15%.
44. Merino Shelter disposal - agreement within one month Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said the Merino Shelter disposal agreement was expected to be signed and announced within a maximum of one month, later revised to a sale model with completion expected by December 15th or 20th and signing "in the next 10 days". On 31st March 2025, a Deed of Assignment was executed granting development rights to Paradise Green-Spaces LLP with ₹70 cr upfront consideration received, and ₹368 cr was booked as sales revenue in Q4 FY25.
45. ERW and seamless plants peak revenue of ₹800-1,000 cr each On track - At the Q2 FY24 call, the CFO said the ERW and SS plants can each do peak revenue between ₹800 cr and ₹1,000 cr in initial stages, with the Jammu plant later guided to ₹1,000-1,200 cr at full utilization and year-one contributions revised from \~₹500 cr to \~₹300 cr and "probably 2 to 300 crores". ERW contributed approximately 10% of consolidated revenue in FY25, roughly ₹350 cr, and the Jammu plant was not yet in commercial production as of Q1 FY27.
46. Seamless stainless steel pipe unit - completion by H2 FY24-25 On track - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said the seamless stainless steel pipe unit was likely to be completed by second half of FY24-25, originally guided at Q3/Q4 FY24 in the FY22 annual report and revised repeatedly through Q2-Q3 FY26, 1st April 2026, Q2 FY27 and March 2027. As of Q1 FY27, the Jammu plant was under commissioning with capex of ₹350 cr against planned \~₹600 cr, production targeted for March 2027 and no commercial production disclosed as of 3 Sep 2026.
47. 40% to 50% growth by closing 2024 Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said there will be growth of 40% to 50% in closing 2024 versus last year, with the CFO guiding at least minimum revenue growth of \~15% from FY24. FY24 consolidated revenue grew 40.82% YoY to ₹3,142 cr, with FY24 total income up 40.7% YoY, within the guided range.
48. \~10% overall EBITDA margin in coming quarters (FY24) Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided \~10% overall EBITDA margin in coming quarters (oil & gas \~11%, water 8-9%), confirmed by the CFO as applying to consolidated numbers, later revised to around 11-12% going forward. Q2 FY24 consolidated EBITDA margin was 8.55% and FY24 consolidated OPM was 7.68%; the 10% level was first reached in Q4 FY25 at 11.1%, with FY26 OPM at 12.33%.