1. PLI / permanent magnet strategy - clarity on participation Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management committed to clarity "during next quarter" on pursuing forward integration into permanent magnets under the PLI scheme. By the Q1 FY27 call they clarified the focus for the next 2 years is oxide production, not magnet production or PLI participation; sister entity Midwest Advanced Materials makes the magnets.
2. Promoter holding - no reduction to 75% in near term Delivered - At the Q1 FY27 call, management stated they are not looking in the near term at reducing promoter holding from \~77% to 75%, noting "3 years is what we are told and we have not even done with 1 year". Promoter holding stands at 77% as at Q1 FY27, with no change disclosed.
3. Indonesia PERMINAS JV - MoU to JV, 12-15 months to cash flows, revenue FY29 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided the MoU with Indonesia's PERMINAS would be translated into a JV agreement during this quarter, with 12-15 months to cash flows from JV formation and FY29 revenue. No JV agreement yet, but the MoU is signed, two projects identified, and a project report is due in 45-60 days.
4. FY27 revenue guidance - \~INR840 cr (granite INR720 cr + quartz INR100-120 cr) On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided FY27 revenue of "around INR840 crores" - INR720 cr granite plus INR100-120 cr quartz - calling it conservative ("we want to promise less and over-deliver"). Q1 FY27 revenue was INR191.84 cr, +34.85% YoY, a run-rate annualizing above the guided level.
5. FY28 revenue guidance - close to INR950 cr Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided FY28 revenue of "close to INR950 crores", built on quartz Phase 1 of INR180-200 crores, possible small Phase 2 revenue and conservative 10-12% granite growth. No FY28 read yet.
6. FY28 blended EBITDA - \~29-30%, quartz EBITDA close to 30% Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided FY28 blended EBITDA of "around 29%, 30%", with quartz EBITDA "close to 30%, little above 30%". No FY28 read yet.
7. FY27 EBITDA margin - same range as FY26 (\~26-27%), granite in line with previous years On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided FY27 EBITDA margin "will be in the same range" as the \~26-27% asked about, with granite "maybe a 50 bps to 100 bps kind of a range" except diesel impact. Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin was 25.47% vs 27.39% in Q1 FY26, down 190 bps on diesel, with recovery expected by Q2.
8. Granite price hike - 3-5% for FY27 Delivered - At the Q1 FY27 call, management confirmed the granite price hike is "around that range" of the 3% to 5% the analyst suggested. Price increases are already done and current prices will hold this year unless fuel costs spike; Q1 FY27 revenue grew 35% YoY despite higher diesel prices.
9. Quartz Phase 1 - 303,600 MTPA plant commissioned and ramping to 15,000 t/month by FY27-end On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said the 303,000 MTPA quartz Phase 1 plant was recently commissioned and would ramp to 80-85%+ utilization in FY27; at Q1 FY27 they guided 15,000 tons/month by year-end and cut the FY27 run-rate to \~120,000 tons after a technical glitch, now sorted. Q1 FY27 quartz revenue was \~INR5 crores on \~5,000 tons sold at \~INR10,000/ton, behind the guided ramp.
10. Quartz Phase 2 - 303,600 MTPA expansion to 606,600 MTPA, commissioning FY27/FY28 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided Quartz Phase 2 for FY27 with commissioning "somewhere in next 12 months" and capex of \~INR125-130 crores; at Q1 FY27 commissioning was pushed to Q2 FY28 as China machinery is replaced. Only Rs 35.00 million of IPO proceeds were utilized as at Q1 FY27 vs Rs 390.89 million estimated; suppliers' orders are finalized.
11. Sierra Leone HMS - subsidiary, concessions, possible asset in 2 years Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management stated "in the next two years we are looking at a good possibility of an asset there" in Sierra Leone; at Q1 FY27 updates were again deferred a quarter. A wholly owned subsidiary is approved; concessions looked at had local issues and expenditure is currently minimal or nil.
12. KMML Kerala monazite pilot plant - 6-month build, \~INR20 cr budget, first oxides from commercial plant On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided the KMML rare earth pilot plant as a six-month project starting the first week of July at \~INR20 crores; at Q1 FY27 the timeline could not be estimated pending a new KMML team and MD. Midwest was selected as Lead Consortium Partner on 6 May 2026 with monazite tailings, land and right of first refusal secured, but the pilot build has not started.
13. APGM cash accrual - ₹20-25 cr per annum vs ₹6.80 cr debt obligation On track - At the Q3 FY26 call and in rating rationale, Crisil expected APGMPL cash accrual of Rs 20-25 crore per annum against a yearly term debt obligation of Rs 6.80 crore over the medium term; by Q1 FY27 the obligation was revised to Rs 1.14 crore. APGMPL PAT was Rs 15.12 crore in FY26 with interest coverage of 10.84 times - no medium-term read yet.
14. APGM revenue - not below ₹200 cr for downward rating sensitivity Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call and in rating rationale, Crisil's downward rating sensitivity was a decline in APGMPL turnover to under Rs 200 crore. APGMPL operating income was Rs 208.42 crore in FY26, above the threshold, and ratings were reaffirmed at Crisil A-/Stable/A2+ on August 7, 2026.
15. Grey Quartzite mine - asset-light B2B2C model, built out over 9-12 months On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management stated a new Grey Quartzite mine lease in Andhra Pradesh with exclusive mining rights would be built out over "next 9 to 12 months" before deciding to go aggressive. The 30-year quarry lease work order was received from the Dept. of Mines & Geology effective January 6, 2026; no build-out completion disclosed yet.
16. HPQ (High Purity Quartz) - pulled into Phase 2, commissioning in 10-12 months On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided HPQ plant commissioning in the next 10 to 12 months, starting with 20,000 tonnes and first products of traditional engineered stone and solar. HPQ lab-scale work is done and flow sheet meets global spec gradation with China crucible manufacturers okayed; the HPQ line is planned alongside Quartz Phase II but not commissioned.
17. HMS Sri Lanka - 150,000 tons plant, INR350-400 cr revenue, ground-breaking October 2026 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided the Sri Lanka HMS project with a 15-month commissioning target "in line"; at Q1 FY27 ground-breaking was guided for "somewhere in October" with 12-15 months for build-out, after a \~6-month policy delay pushed revenue to FY29. Sri Lanka policy is finalized and ratified - the final milestone before the license - with 4 exploration licenses secured; no ground-breaking yet.
18. IPO proceeds utilization - Phase 2 quartz, EV trucks, solar, debt repayment by FY26 Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided IPO-funded capex mostly done within 12 to 15 months, with Offer Document objects including Phase II quartz Rs 39.09 crore, electric trucks Rs 12.88 crore and solar Rs 2.93 crore by FY26; unutilized amounts were later extended to Fiscal 2028 or 2029. Debt pre-payment of Rs 562.23 million was fully utilized, but Phase II quartz had only Rs 1.78 crore, trucks nil, solar nil and GCP Rs 8.57 crore used by end FY26, with Rs 1,620.60 million of the Rs 2,500 million proceeds unutilized at Q1 FY27.
19. Solar energy integration - IPO-funded solar plants operational by H2 FY26 Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management stated the solar plant from IPO proceeds would be operational by the next half of the year. A 1.10 MW plant at Arpanapally is operational, but IPO utilization for solar integration was nil as at Q1 FY27 vs Rs 2.93 crore estimated by FY26, with higher-capacity orders pending revised requirements and 0.66 MW additional capacity proposed.
20. Electric dump trucks - fleet conversion from diesel Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management stated the company is phasing out diesel trucks for electric, IPO-funded trucks, and at Q3 FY26 planned to complete purchases "as early as next one or two quarters". Nine EV trucks were held at Q3 FY26 and one pilot tipper inducted, but IPO utilization was nil by end FY26 vs Rs 12.88 crore estimated and Rs 16.96 million at Q1 FY27, with one truck bought and the rest awaiting performance evaluation.
21. New Black Galaxy granite mine - 10.9-hectare adjacent mine, production Q4 FY26 Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management expected production from the new 10.9-hectare Black Galaxy mine "as early as this quarter" (Q4 FY26), being adjacent to the current operational mine. A new 30-year mining lease was received in January 2026 and the mine was already producing and in revenue in that same quarter.
22. Working capital days - reduction from 99 days Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management noted working capital days at 99 and was endeavoring to bring it down even further, with receivables to decline going forward. Working capital days fell from 122-120 in FY25 to 99 at H1 FY26, but the FY26 cycle ended at 104 days with no further reduction disclosed.
23. Debt reduction - to \~INR120 cr going forward Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided debt to around INR120 crores going forward, helped by INR50-plus crores of IPO proceeds towards repayment. INR54 crores was repaid and debt cut by INR50 crores in FY26, but total borrowings were INR171.83 cr as at FY26 and INR172 cr at Q1 FY27, still above the target.
24. Long-term vision - 2.5x revenue, 3x+ profitability, 35% ROCE, ₹300 cr capex over 3-4 years On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management aspired to deliver 2.5 times FY25 revenue with 35% ROCE and three times plus profitability over three to four years; at Q4 FY26 this was broken into \~INR2,100 crores of revenue across granite, quartz, Sri Lanka HMS and KMML. FY26 revenue was INR645.62 cr with ROCE of 12.64%, while Q1 FY27 revenue grew 34.85% YoY - no 3-4 year read yet.
25. Interest coverage ratio - above 10x over the medium term On track - At the Q2 FY26 call and in rating rationale, interest coverage was expected to remain above 10 times over the medium term. Interest coverage stood at 11.96x as at Q1 FY27, and APGMPL's own coverage was estimated at 10.84 times in fiscal 2026.
26. Cash accrual - above ₹100 cr against yearly debt obligation of \~₹30 cr over medium term On track - At the Q2 FY26 call and in rating rationale, expected cash accrual was above Rs 100 crore against a yearly debt obligation of around Rs 30 crore over the medium term. Cash flow from operations was Rs 174.72 cr in FY26 with debt of INR172 cr as at Q1 FY27 - no medium-term read yet.
27. Granite growth - 10-12% organic growth over 3-4 years On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expressed confidence in 10-12% organic granite growth over 3-4 years with stable or improving margins; at Q1 FY27 they reiterated 10-12% for FY28 as a conservative estimate. FY26 granite revenue grew \~5.5% to INR643.78 cr, but Q1 FY27 granite growth was 32-33% with \~10% volume growth in Black Galaxy and Absolute Black.