1. Medical devices EBITDA margin - 18-19% in 5 years On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided Medical Devices EBITDA margin to go up to 18%-19% over the next five years. Q1 FY25 devices EBITDA margin was expected around 15%, and Q4 FY25 came in between 15% and 17% - progressing toward the FY29 target.
2. Strip sales - 40 crore strips FY25 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected strip sales to go up to 40 crore strips in FY25, "maybe more", vs 36 crore in FY24. By Q3 FY25, 33 crore strips were sold in nine months, and the full year closed at 41.4 crore strips.
3. Meter sales - 30 lakh FY25, then 36 lakh, 40 lakh Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management planned 30 lakh meter sales for FY25, then 36 lakhs and 40 lakhs "keep on expanding". Q3 FY25 expected \~25 lakh meters for the year; the glucometer installed base rose 21% from 1.17 crore to 1.42 crore meters in FY25, with the 30 lakh target not achieved.
4. API topline - ₹1,150 cr with existing gross block Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said API can do around ₹1,150 cr of topline with the existing gross block plus small additions. FY24 API revenue was ₹940 cr; FY25 API grew only 3.5% to \~53% of total business, with no disclosure of reaching ₹1,150 cr.
5. Formulation breakeven - FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said the formulation business should "at least break even" in FY25, after a ₹19.5 cr FY24 EBITDA loss. FY25 closed with no breakeven disclosure; at Q3 FY25, nine-month EBITDA was still attributed only to devices and API, with formulation and OTC the residual, and formulation revenue grew just 21% over two years to ₹344 cr.
6. API growth - 17-18% CAGR Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided API business growth of 17-18% CAGR, "up to 20%", going forward. FY24 API revenue grew 14% and FY25 grew only 3.5%, before Q1 FY27 API grew 31% YoY.
7. Home Diagnostics - pregnancy test kits and ortho products in FY2022-23 Delivered - The FY22 annual report planned to launch in-house manufactured pregnancy test kits and ortho products in FY2022-23. Ortho support systems manufacturing started in-house by Q2 FY25, and the pregnancy kit is a current product with Kareena as brand ambassador.
8. Capacity expansion - 600 KL Phase-1 by Q2-FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY27 PPT, management set a roadmap of 600 KL (Phase-1, Q2-FY27), 800 KL (Phase-2, Q2-FY28), 1000 KL (Phase-3, FY29) and 1200 KL (Phase-4, FY30), from a baseline of 535 KL at Q4-FY26. The Q2-FY27 milestone is not yet due.
9. CDMO mandate - ₹823 cr multi-year, phased delivery Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 PPT, management said phased delivery under the ₹823 cr multi-year CDMO mandate would start "in the next few weeks" from 27 May 2026. The mandate entered commercial supplies in Q1 FY27, with ₹58 cr of commercial CDMO dispatches completed.
10. Resmetirom - bioequivalence studies and global launch On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said Resmetirom bioequivalence studies would start once written CDSCO protocol approval was received, with the company open to global partners. Documentation was filed with DCGI/CDSCO and Morepen and Mankind received permission to conduct bioequivalence studies; BE completion and launch are not yet on record.
11. FY26 quarterly revenue - every quarter ₹500 cr Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected every quarter of FY26 to touch ₹500 cr of revenue. Actual quarters were ₹425 cr, ₹412 cr, ₹484 cr and ₹485 cr - no quarter touched ₹500 cr.
12. QIP-funded projects - 18-24 months completion Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management said all QIP-funded new capacities would be in full operation within 18 to 24 months, with all money consummated by end of FY26. Only ₹59.82 cr of the revised ₹73.38 cr was utilised by end of FY26, and the remaining ₹13.56 cr was extended to March 31, 2027.
13. New medical devices facility - 120,000 sq ft civil work this quarter Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said civil work on the new 120,000 sq ft medical devices facility (\~5x current) would be completed that quarter. By Q3 FY25, all civil work was complete, including a 10,000 sq ft screen-printing plant already started.
14. Medical devices share - 40% in 5 years On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said medical devices would rise from 30% to 40% of total business in the next five years, a "more of 40:60" mix by 2030. Devices share was 29% in 9M FY25, 27% in FY25 and \~35% in FY26 - the horizon is not yet due.
15. ₹5,000 cr top line by 2030 On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management set a ₹5,000 cr top line target by 2030 with better margins and consumer profile, echoed in the 'Morepen 2.0' mission. FY25 revenue was ₹1,830 cr, FY26 standalone ₹1,703 cr and TTM ₹1,951 cr - the 2030 horizon remains open.
16. Exports FY25 - cross ₹650-700 cr Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected exports to cross ₹650-700 cr for FY25. FY25 export sales came in at ₹710.28 cr.
17. Pharma segment FY25 - ₹1,150-1,200 cr Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected the pharma segment to close FY25 at around ₹1,150-1,200 cr. FY25 pharma business revenue was ₹1,334 cr.
18. FY25 EPS - ₹2.5 Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected EPS of ₹2.5 for full year FY25. Actual FY25 EPS was ₹2.20.
19. Retail outlets - 3 lakh in 3 years Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management said the company had 128,000 retail outlets and was going to 3 lakh in the next three years, an earlier Q4 FY24 version citing 125,000 to 300,000 over 5 years. By Q4 FY25, distribution reached \~3.5 lakh touchpoints, 343K per the PPT.
20. Weight-loss product launch - September to October 2024 Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management said a weight loss/obesity OTC product would launch between September and October 2024 for the festival season; Q2 FY25 materials said only "coming soon". The LightLife weight-management range launched in December 2024, online-only and growing 30-40% month-on-month from a small base.
21. API capacity - 600 KL by FY26 Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management targeted API capacity expansion from 400 KL to 600 KL, with 510 KL complete by Q3 FY25 and 514 KL installed by Q4 FY25. The Q4 FY26 baseline was 535 KL, with 600 KL now targeted for Q2-FY27.
22. Medical devices FY25 revenue - ₹540-550 cr Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management projected medical devices FY25 revenue of ₹540-545 cr, restated as "₹540 crores is the number", then lowered it at Q3 FY25 to ₹470-475 cr. Actual FY25 devices revenue was ₹496 cr - above the revised range, below the original.
23. Glucometer meters - 10 crore in 5 years Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management said "even if we target 10 Crore meters in next five years", later clarifying 10 crore was market size and reframing to doubling from 1 crore to 2 crores in 3 years. The installed base reached 2 crore meters by Q1 FY27, from 1.16 crore in March 2024.
24. PAT margin - double-digit in third year (FY2026) Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management said PAT margin (\~6% expected by year-end) should add 150-200 bps toward double digits "in the third year onwards", i.e. FY2026. PAT margin was 6.73% in FY24, 6.47% in FY25 and 3.9% in FY26, before reaching \~9.9% in Q1 FY27.
25. FY24 EPS - close to ₹2 plus Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management expected full-year EPS "close to Rs.2 plus" if the current streak continued. Actual FY24 EPS was ₹1.88, up 144% per the Q4 FY24 PPT.
26. FY24 full-year EBITDA margin - cross 10% Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management expected FY24 full-year EBITDA margin to cross 10%, "keeping fingers crossed". FY24 EBITDA margin came in at 10.13% on the company's basis; the statement-basis OPM was 9.38%.
27. Formulation capacity - fully operational this quarter (Q4 FY24) Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management expected the tripled formulation capacity to be fully operational "this quarter" (Q4 FY24), then running at 75-80% utilization. Capacity had tripled from 3 crore to 9 crore capsules/tablets per month, but the Baddi facility took validation batches in Q2 FY25 and became operational by Q3 FY25.
28. Formulation business - ₹500 cr in 3 years On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management expected formulation to reach \~₹500 cr "in the coming three years time" (give or take one year) from \~₹230-240 cr, later guiding 2.5-3x growth in two years and at least 25% growth in FY26. Formulation revenue grew from ₹276 cr to ₹344 cr over two years; the FY27 horizon is not yet due.
29. Medical devices - cross ₹400 cr this year (FY24) Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said medical devices would "easily cross INR400 crores" that year, vs ₹327 cr the prior year. FY24 medical devices revenue was ₹443 cr.
30. EBITDA margins - double digits next financial year Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided EBITDA margins "to be in two digits, in the next financial year" and 10-12% over two to three years, later raising the range to 12-13% and 15% in three years. FY24 delivered 10.13% and FY25 10.52%, but FY26 fell to 7.9% before Q1 FY27 recovered to 15.25%.
31. Montelukast export market share - beyond 50% Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expressed intent to grow Montelukast export market share beyond the then 49.2%. Share moved to 43% by Q3 FY24, then 70% and 77% by Q3 FY25, where it held through Q4 FY25.
32. 15 molecules - 10% market share of $7-8 billion API market Pending - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said 15 molecules were being patented/off-patent "in the next five to seven years", targeting 10% market share of the $7-8 billion total API market. By Q2 FY24 the pipeline addressed a $67 billion formulation market with a $6-7 billion residual market, and \~40 products with patent expiries were lined up by Q3 FY25; no achieved-share disclosure yet.
33. Fexofenadine US sales - Q1 onward Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said with US FDA approval in hand, Fexofenadine sales to large customers would start "Q1 onward". US supplies started in Q4 FY22 after November approval, contributing \~₹14-15 cr at \~70% export, and Fexofenadine grew 300% in FY24, its first full export year.
34. Glucometer installations - 1.5 crore meters in 3 years Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, management planned to install 1.5 crore meters in three years, from \~0.68 crore then in the market. The installed base reached 1.42 crore by FY25 and \~1.7 crore by FY26, missing the 3-year window but exceeding the target a year late.
35. Medical devices - ₹500 cr next year (FY23) Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said medical devices would be "more than 500 Crores next year only in this business". FY22 devices revenue was ₹419 cr and FY24 devices revenue ₹443 cr - the ₹500 cr mark was not reached in FY23.
36. API capacity - 310 KL to 1,000 KL in 24 months Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided API capacity from 310 KL to 1,000 KL "in the next 24-months", restated at Q3 FY22 as 300 KL to 1000 KL in three years. Capacity was 403 KL in FY24, 514 KL in FY25 and 535 KL at Q4-FY26, with 1,000 KL now targeted for FY29.
37. FY22 growth - at least 25-30% Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided FY22 growth of "at least 25%-to-30% if not 50%". FY22 consolidated revenue grew 30% to ₹1,557 cr.
38. Dr. Morepen portfolio - ₹1,000 cr in 2 years Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said the Dr. Morepen portfolio would reach \~₹1,000 cr in the next two years, also stated as ₹1,000 cr in one year from a ₹700-800 cr top line. The brand reached \~₹685 cr topline by Q4 FY22, +36%, and OTC was roughly flat with 13% CAGR by Q2 FY24 - no disclosure of ₹1,000 cr being achieved.
39. Sputnik V fill-and-finish - 25 crore doses capacity Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said commercial Sputnik V production would start within four to six weeks of approvals, with capacity up to 25 crore doses per annum, expandable to 50 crore. By Q2 FY22, Sputnik was not getting traction as RDIF was not producing as promised, with production visibility unclear; no commercial production or revenue appears in the record.
40. Dr. Morepen OTC expansion - 500 products, ₹4,000 cr value in 3-5 years Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management committed to expanding the Dr. Morepen online range from \~100 to 500 products in 3 years, with a ₹100 cr investment targeting up to ₹4,000 cr value over 3-5 years. By Q2 FY24, OTC was roughly flat with online sales down 31% and focus deliberately reduced; neither target was reported achieved.
41. Finished dosage project - ₹100 cr, 2 years Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management committed to a ₹100 cr finished dosage project over 2 years, with a pilot phase starting within six months. The Baddi facility (₹30-35 cr invested) was commissioned with 102 crore dosages capacity and became operational with two new Rx launches by Q3 FY25 - later than the original timeline.
42. Devices expansion - ₹150 cr, ₹2,000 cr production value in 3-5 years Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management committed to a ₹150 cr devices expansion over \~2 years, lifting production value up to ₹2,000 cr in 3-5 years, later restated at ₹50-75 cr and ₹40-43 cr QIP-funded. Devices revenue reached ₹597 cr in FY26 - under one-third of the target at the window's end.
43. Medical devices business hive-off / separate subsidiary Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management committed to spinning off the \~₹287 cr Medical Devices business as a 100% subsidiary, with the Q4 FY25 plan a slump sale to Morepen Medtech completed on or before September 30, 2025. The BTA (amended May 12, 2025) set transfer from April 1, 2026 with revised consideration of ₹197.1 cr, and the stake in MML diluted to 51% - roughly two quarters late.
44. Dividend policy and declaration Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management said dividend may come "this year next year" but with "no promise as on today", later pointing to a policy within one or two years. The board proposed a dividend in FY25 after 23 years and a 10% final dividend of ₹0.20 per share for FY26.
45. Preference capital conversion / settlement Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management said \~60% of banks had sanctioned conversion of preference capital into equity with a decision in three to six months, with board approval at \~₹53.72 per share coming at Q3 FY22. Equity capital of ₹114.65 cr was allotted to banks/FIIs on conversion, promoters subscribed ₹2.8 cr of warrants, and the company turned zero-debt.
46. Vildagliptin and Rivaroxaban commercialization Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management said Vildagliptin market supplies would be effected towards end of FY21 and Rivaroxaban during FY22. Both were already commercialized by Q3 FY21, with Rivaroxaban DMF filed and USFDA inspection awaited, and the FY23 annual report confirms Rivaroxaban commercialization followed by process validation.
47. API expansion - ₹178 cr, 2,000 MT, 3 years Partial - At the Q1 FY21 call, management committed to a board-approved ₹178 cr API expansion adding 2,000 MT capacity, 400 KL reactors and 40 products in around 3 years, later re-phased and restated at ₹125-150 cr. Installed capacity grew from 314 KL to 535 KL over five years, with 600 KL still targeted for Q2-FY27.
48. 15% CAGR "bare minimum" - revenue growth commitment Partial - At the Q1 FY21 call, management stated 15% CAGR is "a bare minimum" going forward, reiterated through the years, with Q3 FY25 framing 10-15% as the bare minimum for FY25-26. Revenue grew 39% in FY21 and 30% in FY22, but FY23 (−8.36%), FY25 (+7.17%) and FY26 (−0.32%) fell below the floor.