1. FY27 closing order book - close to Rs. 5,000 cr On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided a closing order book of close to Rs. 5,000 cr by end of FY27, reiterated at the Q1 FY27 call. Q1 FY27 order book stood at Rs. 5,143.3 cr as on 30th Jun 2026, already above the target, though the FY27-end outcome remains to be reported.
2. FY27 order inflows - "much more than this" Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management expected FY27 order inflows to be "much more than this". Q1 FY27 order inflow was Rs. 2,895.1 cr, highest ever in a single quarter, surpassing the entire FY26 inflow of Rs. 2,453.3 cr.
3. FY27 revenue growth - \~50% On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided \~50% revenue growth for FY27 on \~Rs. 900 cr plus in FY26; this was raised to 80% ±5% at the Q4 FY26 call and reiterated with EBITDA margin of 24% ±100 bps at the Q1 FY27 call. Q1 FY27 revenue was Rs. 360.7 cr, up 130.4% YoY; FY27 is not yet complete.
4. FY26 closing order book - close to Rs. 2,800 cr Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected a closing order book of close to Rs. 2,800 cr by end of FY26, reiterated at the Q3 FY26 call. FY26 closing order book was Rs. 2,580 cr, confirmed at Rs. 2,581.9 cr.
5. NWC days - 200 by end of FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management targeted net working capital days of 200 for FY26, later softened to around 220 days at the Q2 FY26 call, with the CFO targeting \~235 days by end of Q4 FY26 as-is. FY26 net working capital days were 172 days.
6. Aerospace and defense FY26 - 80% growth Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management anticipated phenomenal growth of 80% from aerospace and defense in FY26, reiterated at the Q1 FY26 call and in the FY25 annual report. FY26 Aerospace & Defence revenue was Rs. 103.8 cr vs Rs. 93.2 cr in FY25, growth of 11.4%.
7. Oil & gas capex - Rs. 35-45 cr, \~Rs. 150 cr revenue next year Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided oil & gas capex of \~Rs. 35-40 cr, later Rs. 40-45 cr, targeting \~Rs. 150 cr of oil & gas revenues in FY26; volume production was later pushed to FY27 with Rs. 150-180 cr in the first year. Q4 FY26 reported first articles completed and plant operational by September 2026, with no disclosed oil and gas revenue.
8. Hyderabad aerospace facility - commissioned by end of September 2024 Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management committed to commissioning the new Hyderabad aerospace facility by end of September 2024, fully operational by end of December; at the Q2 FY25 call this moved to end of December/January. The facility was commissioned at end of February 2025, confirmed as January 2025 in the Q1 FY27 PPT.
9. NWC days - 230 by end of FY25 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, the CFO targeted reducing NWC days to 230 by end of FY25 from 252 in FY24, later revised to 220 days and then \~225 days by the Q3 FY25 call. FY25 net working capital days were 229 days, and FY26 came in at 172 days.
10. IAI agreement - Rs. 9-12 cr over 15 years On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management stated the IAI aviation agreement would result in a business opportunity of close to Rs. 9-12 cr over the next 15 years; the FY24 annual report states USD 90-120 million over 15 years for mission-critical aviation assemblies. Around Rs. 28 cr of IAI orders were received in FY25, with first articles under progress through Q1 FY27.
11. FY25 closing order book - Rs. 1,500 cr Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected a closing order book of Rs. 1,500 cr by March FY25 versus Rs. 915 cr in FY24, reaffirmed at Q1 FY25 and reiterated as Rs. 1,400-1,500 cr at Q2 FY25, dependent on Kaiga 5&6 orders in H2. FY25 closing order book was \~Rs. 1,000 cr, an increase of \~9.3%.
12. FY26 revenue growth - minimum 30-35% Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided continued growth at a minimum of 30-35% for FY26 with EBITDA margins close to 24% plus; guidance moved through 20%, 25% and 30% before being raised to 30-35%, close to about Rs. 900 cr, at the Q2 FY26 call and reiterated at Q3 FY26. FY26 revenue was Rs. 876 cr, up 29.6% YoY, with EBITDA margin of 19.54%.
13. FY25 EBITDA margin - 22% ±100 bps Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 EBITDA margins of around 22%, with the FY24 annual report stating 22% ±100 bps; this was revised to around 21% at Q2 FY25 and 21% ±100 bps at Q3 FY25. FY25 EBITDA margin was 17.87%, with management reporting Rs. 120.9 cr at 17.9%.
14. FY25 revenue growth - 30-35% Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided revenue growth of 30-35% for FY25 with EBITDA margins of around 22%, confirming a revised target of almost Rs. 750 cr cut from \~Rs. 900 cr; this moved to around Rs. 725 cr at Q2 FY25 and Rs. 700 cr-plus at Q3 FY25 with margin of 21% ±100 bps. FY25 revenue was Rs. 676 cr, up 16.4% YoY, with EBITDA margin of 17.87%.
15. Clean energy segment revenue - \~Rs. 590 cr in FY24 Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided clean energy segment revenue of about Rs. 590 cr including Hydel in FY24 versus Rs. 441 cr in FY23. FY24 Clean Energy-Fuel Cells, Hydel & Others revenue was Rs. 351.2 cr, or Rs. 413.1 cr including civil nuclear of Rs. 61.9 cr.
16. Bloom dispatch plan FY24 - Q2 418 Yuma + 440 Santa Cruz + 66 electrolyzers; Q3 1,144 Santa Cruz + 44 electrolyzers; Q4 1,718 Santa Cruz Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management laid out a Bloom dispatch plan for FY24: Q2 of 418 Yuma and 440 Santa Cruz hot boxes plus 66 electrolyzers, Q3 of 1,144 Santa Cruz hot boxes and 44 electrolyzers, and Q4 of 1,718 Santa Cruz hot boxes. Q2 FY24 produced roughly 400 Yuma and 200-odd Santa Cruz, Q3 delivered about 44 electrolyzers and roughly 500-odd hotboxes, and full-year FY24 hot boxes totalled 2,752.
17. FY24 PAT - 18% ±50 bps, Rs. 145-150 cr Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided FY24 PAT at approximately 18% ±50 bps, Rs. 145-150 cr. FY24 PAT was Rs. 56.1 cr at a 9.7% margin.
18. SSLV first developmental flight - end of four-year period Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said the first developmental flight of its own small satellite launch vehicle should be ready at the end of a four-year period, with the FY23 annual report describing a 4-5 year project with three developmental flights before commercial launch. By the Q2 FY26 call, the SSLV program had been put on pause due to workload and budget-outlay risk, with no disclosed first developmental flight.
19. GKN Aerospace LOI - $10 million to convert in Q4 FY23/Q1 FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected the GKN Aerospace LOI of $10 million to convert to official orders during Q4 FY23 or beginning of Q1 FY24. An authorization to proceed of close to $10 million was received after 31st March, with around Rs. 8 cr executed in FY25 and volume production in progress by FY26.
20. Rs. 3,000 cr revenue company - by FY28 On track - At the Q4 FY23 call, management gave a roadmap for MTAR to be a Rs. 3,000 cr plus revenue company over the next five years, by FY28, entirely organic, reiterated at the Q1 FY24 call. FY26 revenue was Rs. 876 cr and FY27 guidance is 80% growth to \~Rs. 1,577 cr; the FY28 target is not yet due.
21. Fluence Energy revenues - Rs. 400 cr by end of third year starting FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided Fluence Energy revenues ramping from FY25 onwards, touching about Rs. 400 cr by end of the third year starting FY25, with the LOI for 1,000 units of \~Rs. 130 cr expected for FY25 execution. Proto 1 was completed by Q4 FY25 and Proto 2 progressed through FY26, but no Fluence revenue was disclosed and Fluence was dropped from the customer base by Q4 FY26.
22. Working capital days - 180-200 by end of FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management targeted net working capital days between 180 to 200 days by end of FY24, reiterated at the Q1 FY24 call. FY24 net working capital days were 252 days, an increase rather than a reduction.
23. Nuclear orders - at least Rs. 600 cr in FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected close to at least about Rs. 600 cr of nuclear orders, the Kaiga 5 and 6 packages, flowing in FY24, with a conservative estimate of about Rs. 500 cr. The Kaiga 5&6 orders of Rs. 500 cr plus were received only in Q3 FY26, roughly two years late.
24. FY24 closing order book - Rs. 1,500 cr Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided order book of Rs. 1,500 cr by end of FY24, confirmed at Q1 FY24, revised to Rs. 1,400-1,500 cr at Q2 FY24 and Rs. 1,400 cr at Q3 FY24 assuming Kaiga Rs. 500 cr came in before March. FY24 closing order book was Rs. 915 cr.
25. FY24 EBITDA margin - 28% ±100 bps Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided FY24 annual EBITDA margins of around 28% "with a few basis points here and there", reiterated at Q1 FY24, cut to 26% ±100 bps at Q2 FY24 and to 24% at Q3 FY24. FY24 EBITDA margin was 19.41%, with management reporting Rs. 112.7 cr at 19.4%.
26. Nuclear order inflow - Rs. 200 cr+ sustainable annually Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said Rs. 200 cr plus of average annual order inflow from the Nuclear segment should be sustainable in the next couple of years. The FY23 nuclear order book grew from \~Rs. 160 cr to \~Rs. 220 cr, and the FY26 nuclear order book reached Rs. 650 cr plus with Q1 FY27 nuclear orders of Rs. 684 cr.
27. Working capital days - slightly below 200 by end of FY23 Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management targeted working capital days slightly below 200 by end of FY23, from 249 days in Q1 FY23; the CFO later committed to 200 days at Q2 FY23 and \~225 days at Q3 FY23. FY23 net working capital days achieved 230 days versus the guided 220 days.
28. FY24 revenue growth - similar to FY23 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said revenue growth in FY24 would hopefully be "more or less similar to what we have today"; this was raised at the Q3 FY23 call to 45-50% growth, reiterated through Q1 FY24 as Rs. 830-860 cr, before being cut to around Rs. 610 cr at Q3 FY24. FY24 revenue was Rs. 580.8 cr, up 1.2% YoY.
29. FY23 nuclear revenue - Rs. 80-90 cr, possibly up to Rs. 100 cr Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected FY23 nuclear revenue of roughly Rs. 80-90 cr, possibly up to Rs. 100 cr, from orders already on hand; at the Q3 FY23 call this was revised to around Rs. 45-50 cr. FY23 civil nuclear segment revenue was Rs. 43.8 cr.
30. FY23 closing order book - about Rs. 1,000 cr Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management targeted a closing order book of about Rs. 1,000 cr by end of FY23, with no downside per the Q1 FY23 call; this was revised up to close to about Rs. 1,200 cr at the Q3 FY23 call. FY23 closing order book was Rs. 1,173 cr, described as "very close" to the revised guidance.
31. FY23 order inflow - at least Rs. 800-850 cr Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided order inflow of at least about Rs. 800-850 cr during FY23. Rs. 893 cr of orders had been received YTD 31st December at Q3 FY23; the full-year figure is not explicitly disclosed in our record.
32. FY23 EBITDA margin - about 30% ±100 bps Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided FY23 EBITDA margin of about 30% with plus or minus 100 basis points, reiterated at the Q1 FY23 call and revised to \~29% ±50 bps at Q3 FY23. FY23 EBITDA margin was 26.84%, with management noting close to 27% versus guidance of 28.5%.
33. Clean energy contribution - 50-60% of FY23 revenue growth Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management expected clean energy to contribute more than 50-55% or close to 60% of revenue growth next year. FY23 clean energy revenue grew from Rs. 201 cr to Rs. 441.7 cr, an increase of Rs. 240.7 cr of the total Rs. 251.8 cr growth - about 96%.
34. New customer first-article orders - volume business in 1-3 years Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management expected new customer first-article orders from Bentall, Techniques, Voith, Hitachi and Enercon to convert into volume business over the next one to three years, with volumes from GE Renewable and GKN Aerospace expected over the next year or so. By FY25-FY26, Voith, Andritz, GE and Regen Power were moving into batch production, with about Rs. 40 cr of annual Andritz hydro orders finalized at Q3 FY26.
35. Hot box volumes - \~2,500+ FY22, 4,000+ FY23 Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided \~2,500+ hot boxes in FY22 and 4,000+ boxes in FY23, confirmed with backup POs, later revised through \~4,500, 3,300 for FY25 and \~4,000 for FY26. FY23 produced \~4,500 hot boxes, the highest so far, against the 4,000+ target; FY24 delivered 2,752.
36. FY23 revenue growth - 45-50% preliminary Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management gave initial guidance of 45-50% revenue growth for FY23 excluding new nuclear orders and sheet metal, raised to 55-60% at Q4 FY22 and to Rs. 570-600 cr (\~80-85% growth) at Q3 FY23. FY23 revenue was Rs. 573.8 cr, up 78.2% YoY.
37. FY22 revenue growth - 30-35% (raised from 20-25%) Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management revised FY22 revenue growth guidance upwards to 30-35% from the earlier 20-25%, maintaining similar margins. FY22 revenue was Rs. 322 cr, up 30.7% YoY.
38. Electrolyzers - pick up in Q1 FY23 Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided electrolyzers to pick up in the first quarter of FY23, with batch production of 60 numbers completed across Q4 FY22 and Q1 FY23 and a "real surge" from FY24; the ramp-up was pushed repeatedly, with volume production hoped for by end of calendar 2023 and later timelines slipping. Deliveries continued through FY25 - about 40 in Q2 FY23, 20 in Q3 FY23, 32 in Q1 FY24 and 22 in Q1 FY25 - but no further orders were received by Q4 FY25.
39. Semi-cryo engine introduction - by Q3 FY22 Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided the semi-cryo engine to be introduced for the first time in the country by Q3 FY22; the timeline slipped repeatedly - FY23 Q3, Q4 FY23, FY24 "for sure", first half of FY25, FY26, and early 2026 for first hardware. About Rs. 25 cr plus of revenue was deferred at Q4 FY25 including domestic semi-cryo work with design changes, with no disclosed launch or first-hardware delivery through Q1 FY27.
40. Bloom share of requirement - \~70% over next year Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management noted MTAR catered to 60% of Bloom's requirement and aimed for close to about 70% over the next year. The share versus the Taiwanese supplier was 70:30 by Q4 FY22 and close to 70% of Santa Cruz requirement by Q2 FY24, with a majority share held at Q1 FY27.
41. Adibatla fabrication and sheet metal facilities - operational by H2 FY22 Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided the specialized fabrication facility at Adibatla and the high-precision sheet metal facility to be operational in H2 FY22, both commissioned by year end, with the hot box division capex of about Rs. 40-45 cr later targeted for September/October 2022. The sheet metal plant was fully operational by Q4 FY22 with exports of more than Rs. 8.37 cr as a starter, and the fabrication unit was fully commissioned by June 2023.
42. Sustainable EBITDA margins - \~35% long-term Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided sustainable EBITDA margins to hover around 35% on a long-term basis, "definitely we will sustain around 35% of EBITDA"; subsequent annual guidance stepped down through 30%, 29%, 28%, 26%, 24%, 22% and 21%. EBITDA margin declined from \~34% in FY21 to 17.87% in FY25 and 19.54% in FY26.
43. Electromechanical actuators (EMAs) - established by Q4 FY22 Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided EMAs to be established "probably by fourth quarter of this year", citing an EMA requirement of close to Rs. 400 cr over the next three to four years. Orders of Rs. 1.3 cr came in Q3 FY22 and close to Rs. 7.5 cr by Q4 FY22, with almost Rs. 7-8 cr being delivered by Q4 FY23 and EMAs established as a product line by Q3 FY24.
44. Roller screws - final approvals by end of Q2 FY22 Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided roller screw final approvals in Q2 FY22 with qualification complete by end of Q2; the import-substitution certification was then expected imminently at call after call, from "this week" at Q3 FY23 to "in this quarter itself" at Q2 FY26. Roller screws were qualified with first articles delivered to DRDO by Q4 FY22, and by Q3 FY26 management stated certification was done, with only the final papers awaited.
45. Keeylocko volumes - \~40 units FY22, \~800 units FY23 Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided about 40 Keeylocko units in FY22 and almost 800 numbers in FY23, later revised to a ramp-up of 1,600 numbers in the next calendar year. The first 30 units were dispatched in Q4 FY22 and 10 more in Q1 FY23, with Keeylocko orders of Rs. 218 cr still in the order book at Q3 FY24 and no disclosed FY23 unit total.
46. Working capital days - back to \~140 days during FY22 Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management expected working capital days, at 198 at end-March 2021, to drop back to about 140 days during FY22. FY22 working capital days were 299, up from 198, improving to 249 days by Q1 FY23.
47. FY22 closing order book - at least Rs. 700 cr Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided to a closing order book of at least Rs. 700 cr by end of FY22 as a "conservative number", revised down from a prior Rs. 1,000 cr figure on COVID-related slippage, and reiterated around Rs. 700 cr at Q3 FY22 pending nuclear orders. FY22 closing order book was Rs. 648.8 cr, with management saying they were close since the \~Rs. 60 cr nuclear order was expected in Q1 FY23.
48. Nuclear segment FY22 orders - at least Rs. 300-400 cr Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management expected at least Rs. 300-400 cr of orders from the Nuclear segment in FY22, "or even more", with most orders expected in Q2 and Q3. FY22 civil nuclear segment revenue was Rs. 45.72 cr, with nuclear at 25% of the Rs. 648.8 cr order book - about Rs. 162 cr - and the pending \~Rs. 60 cr L1 order still expected in Q1 FY23.
49. Hydrogen units volume production - by Q4 FY22 Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided hydrogen units to move to volume production by end of calendar 2021, with "large traction" expected by then. First prototypes were installed in South Korea with very good acceptance, 40 new-age units were in production at Q3 FY22, and the first 30 Keeylocko units were dispatched in Q4 FY22, but no explicit volume-production milestone is disclosed in our record.
50. FY22 Clean Energy revenue - Rs. 172-176 cr Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided Clean Energy revenue of Rs. 172-176 cr for FY22. FY22 Clean Energy segment revenue was Rs. 201 cr, exceeding the guided range by \~14-17%.