1. Publication growth - 10-12% in FY26 Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management was "very confident" of FY26 publication growth of 10% to 12%, later tempered to 6-7% volume growth at Q4 FY25. FY26 publication revenue grew 0.6% to ₹719 crore.
2. Curriculum change - Maharashtra and Gujarat from FY25 Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management stated new NEP curriculum will be implemented in both Gujarat and Maharashtra from FY25 onwards, with later updates pushing grades into FY26 and FY27. Grade 1 changed in FY26 and grades 2, 3, 4 and 6 in FY27; the change is now underway after a 1-2 year delay.
3. Digital spend - ₹15-17 crore per year till curriculum cycle stops Pending - At the Q1 FY26 call, management stated digital spend of around ₹15-17 crore per year will continue "till the curriculum cycle stops". The Q2 FY25 call had noted the prior year's digital loss of ₹30-odd crores was expected to fall to around ₹15 crores that year; no FY26 spend or loss disclosure is on record.
4. Consolidated volume growth - 12% in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided average consolidated volume growth of 12% for FY26. FY26 consolidated revenue declined 3.6% to ₹1,721 crore, with no consolidated volume disclosure in our record.
5. Domestic stationery - 5-6% volume growth in FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 domestic stationery volume growth of around 5-6%, also projected in the FY25 annual report. FY26 domestic stationery grew 4% in value to ₹366 crore with 6% volume growth.
6. Consolidated FY26 net profit - approximately ₹200 crore Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management confirmed approximately ₹200 crore of consolidated net profit can be expected for FY26. FY26 consolidated PAT was ₹369 crore, far exceeding the expectation.
7. Consolidated FY24 profit - grow in line with 15% top-line growth Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided consolidated profit should grow in line with 15% top-line growth - "very confident of that". FY24 consolidated PAT was ₹252 crore, up 23.5% from ₹204 crore in FY23.
8. Consolidated FY24 revenue - ₹1,900 crore Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management reiterated the ₹1,900 crore consolidated revenue target for FY24 - "at console level we are confident of achieving that number"; at Q2 FY24 it declined to reaffirm the number. FY24 consolidated revenue was ₹1,751 crore.
9. New stationery categories - 3-4 new product categories in 5 years Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management was "very sure" it would introduce "minimum three to four different new category of products" for exports and domestic markets in five years. Metal office items, plastic folders and moulded stationery, writing instruments, geometry boxes, exam boards and canvas followed - at least 4 within the window.
10. K12 stake sale proceeds - to be reinvested in stationery business over 2-3 years Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said proceeds from the K12 stake sale - ₹225 crore for the \~5% stake sold - will be reinvested in the stationery business in a planned way over 2-3 years. At Q1 FY27, the funds are being held to enable quick decisions on potential inorganic opportunities in Indian stationery, with nothing on the table right now.
11. K12 stake sale - exit within 2-3 years Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said the balance K12 stake would be held only "for a couple of years, not forever," with exit "between next 2 to 3 years". Navneet Learning LLP divested 5.12% for ₹225.18 crore in Q4 FY24 and sold around 4.5% for ₹330 crore by Q1 FY27, leaving around 8.8%.
12. Stationery segment EBITDA margin - 9% in FY27, 9.5-10% in FY28 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided stationery segment EBITDA margin of around 9% in FY27 post brand expenses, and around 9.5% to 10% in the subsequent year; Q1 FY27 guidance was lifted to around 12% for FY27. Q1 FY27 EBITDA margins were 15% for exports and 3% for domestic; the full year is not yet due.
13. Brand spend - ₹30 crore in year 1, ₹40 crore in year 2 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management committed to brand spend of around ₹30 crore in the first year and ₹40-odd crore in the second year of a 2-year strategy. At Q1 FY27, branding and key-employee investments impacted domestic stationery segment profitability; no spend figure has been disclosed.
14. UAE manufacturing facility - operational by Q2 FY27 Missed - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said the UAE manufacturing facility is slotted to be operational by Q2 FY27. By Q4 FY26 the project was put on hold due to geopolitical tensions, with very limited investment gone in till date, so it will not be operational by Q2 FY27.
15. Non-paper stationery - 20% of domestic revenue by FY28 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said by FY28 the company would like 20% of domestic revenue to come from non-paper stationery. At Q1 FY27, non-paper was placed at 10-15% of overall domestic stationery "in 3 years' time"; FY28 is not yet due.
16. CBSE textbook business - 12-15% growth in FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management committed next year CBSE textbook business growth of 12% to 15% "would be definitely achievable". At Q1 FY27, CBSE/CBSE-pattern school growth was more than 15% YoY; the full-year outcome is not yet due.
17. CBSE/Rise revenue - 10-11% of standalone publication revenue in 2 years On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided CBSE/Rise revenue, currently "hardly 5%" of standalone publication revenue, to grow to "minimum 10% to 11%" of total revenue in 2 years. At Q1 FY27, CBSE/CBSE-pattern school growth was more than 15% YoY; the mix percentage has not been disclosed through Q1 FY27.
18. Publication business - 15% growth in FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided at least 15% publication growth in FY27, reiterated through Q4 FY26; Q1 FY27 lowered it to around 10%. Q1 FY27 publication revenue dipped 3%, with Q2 guided to ₹300+ crore vs ₹247 crore.
19. Publication margins - 26-27% in FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided publication business margins of around 26-27% for FY27, building on the Q2 FY26 guidance of around 25-26% for FY26. Q1 FY27 publication EBITDA margin was around 40%; the full year is not yet due.
20. Publication margins - 30-31% in FY25 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided publication margin around 30-31% for FY25 (standalone, excluding Indiannica), later trimmed to around 27-28% at Q3 FY25. FY25 publication segment margin was 22.95%, short of both targets.
21. Stationery segment - steady-state EBITDA margin of 12-13% from FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided stationery segment steady-state EBITDA margin of 12% to 13% going forward from FY26, later revised to around 9% for FY27 and 10-12% guidance at Q1 FY27. FY26 stationery segment margin was 6.65%, with Q1 FY27 at 15% exports and 3% domestic.
22. Stationery margins - 100 bps improvement in FY25 Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 stationery margin improvement of around 100 bps over FY24 due to lower paper prices; Q3 FY25 put the year at around 10-11% PBT margin. FY25 stationery segment margin was 12.33% against FY24's 11.48% - an \~85 bps improvement, slightly short.
23. Export stationery - 8-9% growth in FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 export stationery growth at "higher single-digit" - around 8% to 9%; Q1 FY27 revised this to degrowth of around 5%. Q1 FY27 export stationery contracted around 9%; the full year is not yet due.
24. Export stationery - 20% volume growth in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 export volume growth of around 20-odd percent; by Q2 FY26 it was happy even to retain prior-year US numbers amid tariff uncertainty. FY26 export stationery declined 10% to ₹596 crore.
25. Export stationery - 10-15% growth in FY25 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided exports stationery growth of "between 10% and 15% for sure" in FY25, with double-digit growth reaffirmed through the year. FY25 export stationery grew 12%, within the range.
26. Export stationery - 10% growth in FY24 Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided exports growth of around 10% for FY24, later reiterated at 14-15%. FY24 export stationery grew 4%, short of both figures.
27. Export stationery - 15% growth in FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided exports \~15% to 17% growth in the current year, with 15% reaffirmed at Q2 FY23. FY23 export stationery grew 15% to ₹567 crore.
28. Domestic stationery - 15-17% growth in FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided domestic stationery growth of around 15% to 17% for FY27, after 15% at Q4 FY26 and 15-20% at Q3 FY26. Q1 FY27 domestic stationery grew 26%; the full year is not yet due.
29. Domestic stationery - 12-15% growth in FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided domestic stationery growth "between 12% and 15%" for FY25, reiterated at \~14-15% at Q1 FY25, with value growth cut to low single digit by Q2 FY25. FY25 domestic stationery de-grew by 13%, revenue declining from ₹407 crore to ₹353 crore.
30. Domestic stationery - 12-15% growth in FY24 Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management committed domestic stationery would grow 12-15% in FY24, after aiming for "a strong growth of 12 to 15%" at Q2 FY24; expectations were trimmed to 14-15% during the year. FY24 domestic stationery grew 7% to ₹407 crore, short of the target.
31. Publication business - 15% CAGR over curriculum change cycle (4 years) Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided standalone growth "in upwards of 15% CAGR over subsequent four years" once curriculum change happens, reaffirmed over the 24-28 phase. FY24 publication revenue was flat, FY25 grew 3% to ₹714 crore and FY26 grew 0.6% to ₹719 crore, with Q1 FY27 dipping 3%.
32. Indiannica - merger with Navneet On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management said a decision on merging Indiannica into the standalone entity "will be taken soon"; the Board decision was slated for Q4 FY26 and taken. As of Q1 FY27 the merger is decided and awaiting authority approvals, with no completion disclosed.
33. Indiannica - FY25 revenue ₹65-70 crore and PAT ₹2-3 crore Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided FY25 Indiannica revenue between ₹65 crore and ₹70 crore, and PAT of about ₹2-3 crore positive. Indiannica FY25 revenue was about ₹55 crore with a PAT loss of ₹6 crore - the MD acknowledged "I had myself said, but it has not come true".
34. Indiannica - 15-20% revenue growth in FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided Indiannica/CBSE business "likely to see at least between 15% to 20% growth year-on-year", reaffirmed through Q2 FY24. Indiannica FY24 revenue was ₹59 crore vs ₹64 crore in FY23, with FY24 PAT of -₹10 crore.
35. Indiannica - PAT positive in FY23 Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated Indiannica would "definite to show profit" at PAT level for the full year FY23. FY23 Indiannica turned PAT positive for the first time, on revenue of ₹64 crore.
36. Standalone FY23 PAT - ₹210+ crore Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided standalone PAT "in upwards of around 210 odd crores" for FY23, after confirming \~₹220 crore at Q1 FY23. FY23 standalone PAT was ₹259 crore, above the guided floor.
37. Consolidated FY23 PAT - \~₹160 crore Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided consolidated FY23 PAT of "around 160-crore", after confirming \~₹180 crore at Q1 FY23. FY23 consolidated PAT was ₹204 crore, above both figures.
38. Tutoring platform (Genext/BeMasterly) - launch in Q1 2024 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management stated the tutoring platform would be launched in Q1 of 2024. It launched in April 2023 with the "Simplify" ERP and "Test-Pro" content bank, and the product was live from 1st April with a good initial response.
39. CBSE digital content (eSense) - launch in next two months Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management committed digital content for CBSE (at eSense) would be launched "in next two months or so". The flagship LMS product for CBSE schools was launched by Q4 FY22 with an "encouraging" initial response, and the B2B school business was booking orders by Q3 FY23.
40. Leapbridge Kids Platform - launch around February 2022 Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management committed the Leapbridge Kids Platform (digital plus physical, age group 2-8) would launch "in around February of '22", later pushed to a June 2022 soft launch. Leapbridge was discontinued by Board decision as unviable - the app was never launched and \~₹15.5 crore of lifetime expense was written to P&L.
41. EdTech external fundraising - by end of calendar 2022 Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management stated investor conversations on EdTech fundraise/dilution would happen "closer to the end of this calendar" (2022); the plan was repeatedly pushed back through FY23. No external fundraising is on record through Q1 FY27, and the EdTech business was restructured into the parent.
42. EdTech funding requirement - \~₹20-25 cr per quarter for next 4 quarters Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided funding requirement for the two tech (B2B) businesses of \~₹20-25 crore every quarter for the next 4 quarters (\~₹100 crore additional); Q4 FY23 revised FY24 down to under ₹50-60 crore. FY24 edtech loss was \~₹44 crore, below the revised ceiling and well below the original plan.
43. EdTech breakeven - in \~2 to 2.5 years (from Q2 FY23) Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided digital/EdTech breakeven in \~2 to 2.5 years, committing at Q3 FY23 to "in the third year we will achieve breakeven for sure"; later pushed to "In 2 years, for sure" at Q4 FY24. FY24 edtech loss was \~₹44 crore and the ₹15-17 crore annual digital spend continues - no breakeven through Q1 FY27.
44. K-12 schools - 100 schools by 2025 Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management stated a target to reach 100 schools by 2025 - "in next three years we have a target to reach to 100 schools"; counts rose from 58 to 60 with 80+ targeted for FY24. K12 Techno opens 15-20 schools every year, but no disclosure of reaching 100 schools by 2025 is on record.
45. Dividend policy - minimum 25% of PAT Partial - Management stated a dividend policy of minimum 25% of PAT, dependent on fund needs and growth, at the Q4 FY22 call and earlier in the FY20 annual report. FY22 final dividend of ₹1.50 per share was 23.14% of net profit, while FY21 paid 44.70% and FY20 \~37.73%.
46. Company debt-free by around August 2022 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management promised the company would become debt-free by around August, when the March-quarter inventory builds unwind; debt then stood at \~₹70-odd crore against \~₹19 crore cash. Q4 FY25 debt was ₹20 crore with no cash on the balance sheet, and reported financials show debt of ₹36.00 crore with D/E of 0.02 as of 02 Sep 2026.
47. Center for Stationery Exports - ₹100 cr capex over five years Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management committed to a Center for Stationery Exports with capex of \~₹100 crore over five years, \~₹40-odd crore in FY23 and FY24; plans were later restated up to \~₹200 crore and then to ₹100 crore a year for three years. The ₹65 crore Southern Gujarat facility started operations in FY26 but was not utilized at capacity, with FY27 investments guided at "hardly ₹25-30 crore".
48. Stationery exports - 25% CAGR over 3-4 years Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided 25% CAGR growth in stationery exports as "easily achievable" over the next 5 years, reiterated at Q4 FY22 over three to four years; guidance was progressively cut to \~20% and then \~15%. Exports grew 15% in FY23 (₹567 crore), 4% in FY24, 12% in FY25 and declined 10% in FY26 to ₹596 crore.
49. Stationery business - cross FY19-20 peak (\~₹769 cr) in FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the overall stationery business would cross the FY19-20 peak (₹769 crore) in FY23, with domestic also crossing its FY20 number. FY23 domestic stationery grew 98% to ₹380 crore and exports grew 15% to ₹567 crore - combined \~₹947 crore crossed the peak, and domestic crossed its \~₹250 crore FY20 base.
50. Publication business - cross FY20 peak (\~₹770 cr) in FY23 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management promised the publication business would cross FY20 numbers (peak \~₹770 crore) in FY23 - "very sure" - with \~₹750-780 crore expected. FY23 standalone publication revenue grew 83% to ₹678.29 crore, short of both the \~₹770 crore peak and the ₹700 crore floor.