1. Organolithium 80-90% utilisation of 300 MT/year in FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management targeted 80-90% utilisation of the expanded 300 MT/year organolithium capacity in FY27. In Q1 FY27 the organolithium plant hit full (peak) utilisation; FY27 is not yet complete.
2. Dahej 1,100-ton salt expansion commissioned by March 2026 Missed - At the Q3 FY26 call, management revised the Dahej 1,100-ton expansion timeline to March 2026. By Q1 FY27, only 200 MTPA of the 1,500 MTPA lithium salts capacity was commissioned, with trial production ongoing for the remaining 1,300 MTPA - the March 2026 target was not met.
3. Insurance recovery full settlement by September-December 2026 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management expected the balance on capital rebuild before September 2026 and loss-of-profit recovery between September and December 2026. By Q1 FY27, cumulative recoveries were Rs. 164 crore with a net claim receivable of Rs. 186 crore; final settlement is still pending.
4. Promoter preferential issue of Rs. 150 crore (later Rs. 161 crore) Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management announced Board approval for a Rs. 150 crore preferential issue to the Promoter Group; at Q4 FY26 the allotment was completed at Rs. 161 crore. The Rs. 161 crore promoter capital infusion was completed.
5. QIP raise of Rs. 600 crore Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management announced Board approval for raising Rs. 600 crore via QIP. No completion is in the record yet as of Q1 FY27.
6. Peak debt of Rs. 1,800 crore around FY28 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided peak gross debt of Rs. 1,800 crore around FY28; at Q1 FY27, peak net debt before QIP was \~Rs. 1,800 crore, or Rs. 1,000-1,500 crore after QIP. FY26 total debt was Rs. 1,330 crore and Q1 FY27 net debt \~Rs. 1,175 crore; the peak has not yet been reached.
7. FY27 CAPEX of Rs. 600-700 crore Neogen Ionics plus Rs. 100 crore standalone On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 CAPEX of \~Rs. 600-700 crore for Neogen Ionics plus \~Rs. 100 crore standalone, totalling around Rs. 800 crore. Q1 FY27 CAPEX incurred was Rs. 218 crore on Neogen Ionics projects; FY27 is not yet complete.
8. Battery chemicals EBITDA margin of 16-18% at full utilisation Pending - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided battery business EBITDA margins of 16-18% at full utilisation, reiterated at Q4 FY26. Full utilisation is targeted for FY29, so there is no read yet.
9. FY28 base business EBITDA margin of 18-20% Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management targeted an FY28 base business EBITDA margin of 18-20%. The FY28 horizon has not been reached, so there is no read yet.
10. FY27 base business EBITDA margin of 18% ±1-1.5% On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided an FY27 margin of 18% plus or minus 1-1.5% at full utilisation, reiterated at Q1 FY27. Q1 FY27 standalone EBITDA margin was 19.1%, within the guided band; FY27 is not yet complete.
11. FY28 base business revenue of Rs. 1,100-1,200 crore Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected FY28 base business revenue of at least 10-15% growth, roughly Rs. 1,100-1,200 crore. The FY28 horizon has not been reached, so there is no read yet.
12. FY26 CSM share of 20% Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management targeted CSM to reach 20% of business "by next year" (FY26), reiterated at Q3 FY25. CSM reached almost 16% in Q2 FY26, so the 20% target was not achieved by FY26.
13. BuLi Chem capacity doubling (2x) Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided a 2x capacity increase possible with "very small CAPEX" once environmental clearance is received, repeated at Q3 FY25 pending local approval. BuLi capacity at Patancheru was more than doubled from 120 to 300 metric tonnes active through de-bottlenecking following EC approval.
14. BuLi Chem FY25 revenue of Rs. 50-100 crore (later Rs. 70 crore+) Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided BuLi Chem contribution "closer to Rs. 70 crore or higher by the end of the year", maintaining Rs. 50-100 crore at Q3 FY25. BuLi Chem was amalgamated effective January 31, 2025; FY25 organolithium revenue was \~11% of Rs. 778 crore, i.e., \~Rs. 86 crore.
15. BuLi Chem FY24 revenue of Rs. 50-75 crore Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided BuLi Chemicals to contribute \~Rs. 50-75 crore additional revenue in FY24, reiterated at Q1 FY24. BuLi Chem contributed almost Rs. 17-18 crore to FY24 revenue, well short of the band.
16. Working capital of 120-130 days by FY24 Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management targeted net working capital of 120-130 days by end FY23 and 100-110 days by FY24; later revised to 130-140 days by FY26, then 140-150 days in FY26 improving to 110-120 long-term, and \~140-150 days by FY28. FY26 working capital was \~Rs. 500 crore on \~Rs. 860 crore revenue, implying \~212 days.
17. Debt-equity ratio below 1.25x Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management set an internal red line of debt-equity not more than 1.25x, reiterated at Q3 FY23, Q1 FY24 and Q2 FY24. FY26 consolidated total debt was Rs. 1,330 crore against net worth of Rs. 816 crore, implying D/E of \~1.63x.
18. ROCE of 20%+ on battery business at full utilisation On track - At the Q3 FY23 call, management projected ROE and ROCE "much above 20%" when CAPEX is fully utilised by FY27, reiterated through Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24, Q1 FY25, Q4 FY25, Q2 FY26, Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27. Full utilisation is targeted for FY29 while the battery business ramps up, with contracts designed to ensure 20% ROCE.
19. FY29 consolidated revenue of Rs. 3,700-4,200 crore Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided consolidated FY29 revenue of Rs. 3,700-4,200 crore with existing capacity. The FY29 horizon has not been reached, so there is no read yet.
20. FY28 battery chemicals revenue of more than Rs. 1,000 crore Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY28 battery chemicals revenue at "more than Rs. 1,000 crore," tentatively Rs. 1,200-1,400 crore, reiterated at Q1 FY27. The FY28 horizon has not been reached, so there is no read yet.
21. Morita JV $20 million equity contribution On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management announced the Morita JV for lithium electrolyte salts; the agreement was executed by Q2 FY26 with Morita Investments taking a maximum 20% stake, and Morita's $20 million equity contribution was expected during H1 FY27, later guided to Q2 and Q3 of FY27. As of Q1 FY27 the $20 million receipt was pending, with bank permission sought to split the project into two entities.
22. Pakhajan greenfield - electrolyte H1 FY27, salts H2 FY27 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided commercial production of electrolyte at Pakhajan in H1 FY27 and electrolyte salts in H2 FY27, reiterated through Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27. As of Q1 FY27, mechanical assembly was complete and trial runs initiated for the electrolyte plant; commercial production had not yet commenced, and H1 FY27 is still in progress.
23. Dahej replacement plant operational by Q4 FY26 Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management targeted the replacement Dahej plant to be operational by Q4 FY26, a 9-12 month target from the fire incident, reiterated at Q4 FY26 and later moved to Q2 FY27. As of Q1 FY27, reconstruction was complete with trial runs underway and commercial production set for Q2 FY27 - the Q4 FY26 target was missed.
24. FY27 standalone revenue of Rs. 1,150-1,200 crore (later Rs. 875-950 crore, then Rs. 950-1,050 crore) On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management targeted FY27 base business revenue of Rs. 1,150-1,200 crore, trimmed to \~Rs. 1,100 crore at Q4 FY25, revised down to Rs. 875-950 crore at Q4 FY26 and raised to Rs. 950-1,050 crore at Q1 FY27. Q1 FY27 standalone revenue was Rs. 252.3 crore, consistent with the revised band; FY27 is not yet complete.
25. FY29 battery chemicals full utilisation - Rs. 2,400-2,900 crore revenue On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided full utilisation of the electrolyte facility by FY29 with revenue of Rs. 2,400-2,900 crore, reiterated at Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27. The Pakhajan 30,000 MT electrolyte plant was in trial runs as of Q1 FY27; FY29 has not been reached.
26. FY27 battery chemicals revenue of Rs. 400-500 crore (later Rs. 300 crore-plus) On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided FY27 battery chemicals revenue of at least Rs. 400-500 crore, reiterated at Q3 FY26, revised to Rs. 300 crore-plus at Q4 FY26 and \~Rs. 300 crore at Q1 FY27, split \~Rs. 200 crore salts and \~Rs. 100 crore electrolyte. Q1 FY27 Neogen Ionics revenue was Rs. 19 crore; FY27 is not yet complete.
27. FY26 battery chemicals revenue of Rs. 300-500 crore (later Rs. 30-40 crore) Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided minimum Rs. 250-300 crore battery chemicals revenue in FY26, later banded at Rs. 300-500 crore, moved toward Rs. 300 at Q4 FY25 and revised down to \~Rs. 30-40 crore at Q2 FY26. Neogen Ionics FY26 revenue was Rs. 36 crore, within the revised band.
28. FY25 battery chemicals revenue of Rs. 200-250 crore (later Rs. 50-75 crore, then Rs. 20-30 crore) Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided battery chemicals revenue of around Rs. 200-250 crore for FY25, revised down to Rs. 50-75 crore at Q2 FY25 and to Rs. 20-25 crore, maximum Rs. 30 crore, at Q3 FY25. Neogen Ionics FY25 revenue was Rs. 12 crore, below even the revised band.
29. FY26 revenue of Rs. 950-1,000 crore standalone (later Rs. 775-850 crore) Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management reiterated a standalone FY26 target of Rs. 900-1,000 crore, maintained through Q3 FY25 and revised down to Rs. 775-850 crore after the Dahej fire. FY26 standalone revenue was Rs. 855 crore, consolidated Rs. 862 crore, exceeding the revised band.
30. Battery chemicals CAPEX of Rs. 450 crore - 10,000 MT electrolyte plus 2,000 MT salts by September 2025 Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management announced \~Rs. 450 crore for battery projects with greenfield 5,000 MT electrolyte plus 1,000 MT salts operational by September 2025; the plan grew to 32,000 MT electrolyte and 4,000 MT salts at Rs. 900-1,100 crore, then close to Rs. 1,500 crore, and Rs. 1,795 crore by February/March 2027. As of Q1 FY27, 200 of 1,500 MTPA lithium salts and the 2,000 MT electrolyte plant were commissioned, Pakhajan 30,000 MT was in trial runs, and cumulative CAPEX was Rs. 1,298 crore - the September 2025 deadline was missed.
31. Rs. 150 crore Dahej brownfield CAPEX - Rs. 250-300 crore incremental revenue by FY25/FY26 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the Rs. 150 crore brownfield expansion to yield incremental revenue of Rs. 250-300 crore per annum, with full utilisation by FY25 or FY26, reiterated at Q1 FY23 and Q2 FY23. Its components were partially commissioned by FY24; consolidated revenue rose Rs. 87 crore in FY25 (to Rs. 778 crore) and Rs. 171 crore by FY26 (Rs. 862 crore), below the Rs. 250-300 crore target.
32. Organic chemicals expansion to 60,000 litres (60 m³) by September 2023 Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided the remaining 45,000 litres of the 60,000-litre specialty organic expansion to be commissioned by September 2023; at Q1 FY24 this slipped to Q3-Q4 FY24, and at Q3 FY24 the remaining 29 m³ moved to FY25. 31 m³ of the 60 m³ was commissioned in Q4 FY23, with the remaining 29 m³ still pending at Q3 FY24.
33. Inorganic capacity expansion from 1,200 MT to 2,400 MT by May/June 2023 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided the inorganic chemicals capacity expansion from 1,200 MT to 2,400 MT to be commissioned by May or June 2023. The inorganic expansion from 15m³ to 30m³ was commissioned in March 2023, ahead of the deadline.
34. 400 MTPA lithium electrolyte salts plant commissioned by June/July 2023 Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided the 400 MTPA specialty lithium salts and electrolyte additives capacity to be commissioned by June 2023, reiterated at Q4 FY23 and revised to August (Stage 1) and September (Stage 2) 2023 at Q1 FY24. 200 MTPA was commissioned in Q4 FY24 with first approved material shipped, and trial production began for the remaining 200 MTPA.
35. Electrolyte pilot plant of 250 MT ready by end Q3/Q4 FY23 Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the 250 MT p.a. electrolyte pilot facility to be "likely to be ready by end of Q3/Q4 FY23"; the pilot was revised up to 1,000 MT at Dahej by August/September 2023 and later 1,000 MT operational by Q1/Q2 FY25. The 2,000 MT electrolyte plant at Dahej achieved mechanical completion in Q4 FY24 with trial production commenced, superseding the 1,000 MT plan; first commercial sale of trial quantities occurred in Q1 FY24.
36. FY23 EBITDA of Rs. 100-110 crore Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided FY23 EBITDA of Rs. 100-110 crore, and at Q3 FY23 expected to overshoot beyond Rs. 110 crore. FY23 EBITDA was Rs. 112 crore, above the guided range.
37. FY23 revenue of Rs. 600 crore (later Rs. 650-700 crore) Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided FY23 revenue of Rs. 600 crore with 18-18.5% EBITDA; at Q2 FY23 this was raised to Rs. 650-700 crore depending on lithium prices. FY23 revenue was Rs. 686 crore, within the raised band, with lithium-price inflation cited for the overshoot.
38. FY22 debt of Rs. 250-275 crore by end of FY22 Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management expected debt in the range of \~Rs. 250-275 crore by end of FY22. Net debt including current maturities was Rs. 99 crore in FY22, well below the guided range.
39. FY22 EBITDA margin of 18% ±1% Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided FY22 EBITDA margin to stay similar at 18% plus/minus 1%, reiterated at Q3 FY22. FY22 EBITDA was Rs. 86.6 crore on revenue of Rs. 487.3 crore, implying \~17.8% margin, within the 17-19% band.
40. Advanced intermediates share of 40% by FY24 Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management targeted advanced intermediates rising from \~25-30% to 40% of revenue by FY24 with full Dahej Phase-1 and Phase-2 utilisation, reiterated at Q4 FY22. At Q3 FY24, advanced intermediates plus CSM together were \~30%, and at Q4 FY24 the mix was \~30% advanced intermediates - the 40% target was not achieved.
41. CSM share of 20% of revenue by FY24 Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management targeted CSM at 20% of revenue - about Rs. 120 crore - on a base of Rs. 650-675 crore by FY24, reiterated through Q4 FY22, Q3 FY23 and Q1 FY24. CSM was \~15% in H1 FY23, \~14-15% in Q3 FY24, \~14% in Q3 FY25 and \~16% in Q2 FY26 - the 20% target was not achieved by FY24.
42. FY24 revenue of Rs. 700-725 crore (later Rs. 725-750 crore, then Rs. 800-825 crore) Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided FY24 revenue potential of Rs. 700-725 crore, raised to Rs. 725-750 crore at Q4 FY22 and to at least Rs. 800-825 crore including BuLi Chem at Q4 FY23; at Q2 FY24 management said Rs. 800 crore at 18.5% margin "looks a little bit difficult". FY24 consolidated revenue was Rs. 691 crore, standalone Rs. 696.4 crore - narrowly short of the original band and \~Rs. 110 crore below the final revision.
43. Dahej full utilisation by September 2022 Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said Dahej SEZ Phase I and Phase II would reach full utilisation "by let us say September next year max to max". At the September 2022 deadline, Dahej utilisation was around 60-65%; at Q4 FY22, Dahej organic stood at about 45-50%.
44. Dahej Phase 2 CAPEX of Rs. 55 crore - reactors online by Q2/Q3 FY22 Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided the second-phase Rs. 55 crore CAPEX at Dahej to add reactors gradually between Q3 and Q4 FY22, with complete investment by end of FY22; at Q1 FY22, 75% of Phase-2 reactors were expected online by end of Q2/early Q3 FY22. Phase 2 was commissioned in October 2021, ahead of plan, with Phase 1 fully commissioned in September 2021.
45. FY22 revenue of Rs. 450 crore Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management reiterated FY22 revenue guidance of Rs. 450 crore as "unchanged", reaffirmed at Q1 FY22 and Q2 FY22; at Q3 FY22 management expected to surpass it at "somewhere around Rs. 475 crore". FY22 revenue was Rs. 487.3 crore, up 45% YoY, exceeding the target by \~8%.