Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd Guidance Report - SOIC x StockScans Report

as of Sep 2026

  1. South-West Bangalore - 100 beds, completion FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY25 PPT, the South-West Bangalore lease project was set at 100 beds, project cost ₹840 Mn, completion FY27; by Q1 FY27 PPT infrastructure was completed with equipment installation and approvals in progress. In Q1 FY27, management was "hopeful to start it by the end of Q2" FY27, with no commissioning yet.
  2. Raipur expansion - 300 beds, completion FY28 On track - At the Q4 FY25 PPT, the Raipur expansion was set at 300 beds, project cost ₹5,400 Mn, completion FY28; the Q4 FY26 PPT showed the main contractor onboarded and progressing as per schedule, reiterated in the Q1 FY27 PPT. No commissioning has happened yet, with construction progressing per schedule.
  3. South Bangalore - 350 beds, completion FY29 On track - At the Q4 FY25 PPT, the South Bangalore greenfield was set at 350 beds, project cost ₹8,000 Mn, completion FY29; the Q1 FY27 PPT shifted completion to FY30. In Q1 FY27, management said one of three projects was postponed from FY29 to FY30, with no commissioning yet.
  4. Central Bangalore - 220 beds, completion FY28 On track - At the Q4 FY25 PPT, the Central Bangalore lease was set at 220 beds, project cost ₹1,600 Mn, completion FY28; the Q1 FY27 PPT shifted completion to FY29. In Q1 FY27, asset-light partner model projects were delayed by partner-side licensing issues, which management said "should get sorted in the next month or so".
  5. HSR Bangalore - 215 beds, completion FY28 On track - At the Q4 FY25 PPT, the HSR Bangalore greenfield was set at 215 beds, project cost ₹4,900 Mn, completion FY28; the Q1 FY27 PPT reiterated completion FY28, progressing as per schedule. In Q1 FY27, management said the HSR hospital was "mostly on track", with no commissioning yet.
  6. FY27 capex plan - ₹4,600 Mn greenfield + ₹2,700 Mn maintenance On track - At the Q4 FY26 PPT, FY27 planned capex was Greenfield/Inorganic ₹4,600 Mn and Replacement/Maintenance ₹2,700 Mn, with no Brownfield or Cayman capex planned, reiterated at the Q1 FY27 PPT. In Q1 FY27, actual capex was ₹745 Mn greenfield and ₹314 Mn maintenance, and management committed ₹3,000 crores of projects over the next two years.
  7. Retail chemotherapy centers - JV with 2070 Health Delivered - At Q4 FY25, Viren Shetty announced a JV with 2070 Health for retail chemotherapy centers, with the first Gurgaon center (\~5,000 sq. ft.) soft-launching "by this week" and official launch "in about a month's time". By Q1 FY26, the Everhope Oncology Gurgaon infusion center was up and running and seeing patients, and by Q3 FY26 a second investment in SSO Oncology added three Mumbai centers.
  8. Mumbai adult program - approval and launch Partial - At Q3 FY25, Viren Shetty said SRCC Mumbai was in discussion with the Trust to expand into a multi-specialty adult program, expecting to "hear positively from them over the next couple of months"; by Q1 FY26 management was "quite disappointed with the progress", and the Q4 FY26 PPT targeted FY27. By Q4 FY26 the program was still in advanced stages of discussion with no approval or launch disclosed.
  9. India tax rate - \~26% from FY25 Delivered - At Q1 FY24, Sandhya J said from FY25 the India business would effectively be at \~26% tax rate, later refined to about 26% for FY25 with Cayman at zero, then to a \~13% steady-state estimate and 15-16% for FY26. The FY26 effective tax rate including PPG UK was 16.3%, up from 15.6% in FY25, favorable to the guided \~26% ceiling.
  10. India double-digit revenue growth till expansions kick in Delivered - At Q4 FY24, Venkatesh said management aims for double-digit revenue growth in India "till our expansions kick in", via throughput, payor mix and digital initiatives, reiterated at Q1 FY26. India operations revenue grew 10.2% YoY to ₹47,920 Mn in FY26 and 16.6% YoY to ₹13,196 Mn in Q1 FY27.
  11. International patient revenue - to go to zero On track - At Q1 FY25, Viren Shetty said international medical tourism revenue (\~7.6% of revenue, largely Bangladesh) was expected to go down to zero over five years, later extended to "the next 10 years" and reaffirmed at Q4 FY25. International revenue fell 9.0% YoY to ₹2,163 Mn in FY26 at 5% of mix, though Q1 FY27 saw ₹638 Mn, +58.3% YoY.
  12. Cardiac mix - never below 25-30% of revenue Delivered - At Q4 FY25, Viren Shetty said "I don't see the cardiac business ever going below 25-30%" of revenue, reaffirming at Q3 FY26 that cardiac at a third would remain the largest department. Cardiac was 34% of Q4 FY26 India hospital revenue mix and 33% in FY26, and 33% of specialty mix in Q1 FY27.
  13. Oncology - 20-25% of revenue in five years On track - At Q1 FY26, Dr. Emmanuel Rupert endorsed the analyst-suggested target of oncology reaching 20-25% of revenue "in the coming five years". Oncology was 14% of Q4 FY26 India hospital revenue mix and 15% in FY26, 16% of specialty mix in Q1 FY27, with Viren Shetty at Q3 FY26 seeing it "possibly another 20%" higher going forward.
  14. Capex FY26 - ₹450 crore greenfield/brownfield Missed - At Q4 FY25, Sandhya J guided FY26 capex of \~₹300 cr regular plus \~₹450 cr for greenfield/brownfield capacity, revised to ₹420 cr at Q1 FY26 with Q2 FY26 assurance of spending "that and maybe a bit more". FY26 greenfield capex came in at only ₹109 cr against ₹424 cr planned, due to election-related worker shortages and permission delays.
  15. Capex FY25 - ₹1,600 crore Missed - At Q4 FY24, Sandhya J guided FY25 capex of \~₹1,600 crores budgeted, \~20% internal accruals and \~80% debt, with confidence reiterated at Q1 FY25. FY25 actuals totaled \~₹11,007 Mn against a \~₹16,435 Mn plan, with management at Q4 FY25 confirming a \~₹400 crores shortfall rolled into FY26.
  16. Bed capacity - 7,600+ beds by FY30 On track - At the Q4 FY26 PPT, management set a bed capacity target of 7,600+ beds by FY30, from 5,750 beds as of 31-Mar-26. The Q1 FY27 PPT showed a footprint of 5,955 operational beds as of 1st July 2026, with no further bed additions disclosed in the quarter.
  17. Practice Plus Group - EBITDA margin 8.5-9% pre-IFRS Delivered - At Q3 FY26, Sandhya J said "We do aspire to be at that 8.5 to 9% pre-IFRS" for Practice Plus margins. UK EBITDA margin rose from around 7-8% at acquisition to 10% by Q4 FY26, with Q4 FY26 EBITDA at GBP 7.1 Mn (10.5%) and FY26 at GBP 10.7 Mn (9.8%).
  18. Practice Plus Group - private payor mix improvement On track - At Q2 FY26, Anesh Shetty said initiatives to increase private payor-mix would accelerate, with more outlook information "in a few quarters"; by Q1 FY27 the anticipated shift from \~95% NHS dependence was expected to take "4 to 5 years to move". Private pay was 7% of PPG revenue at acquisition, and by Q1 FY27 the UK private payor contribution was at a historical all-time high.
  19. Practice Plus Group (UK) acquisition - EPS neutral Pending - At Q3 FY26, Sandhya J reiterated earlier guidance that the UK acquisition would be "EPS neutral for the group". The UK posted a net loss of GBP 0.19 crore (\~₹34 crores) in Q4 FY26, with loan servicing on a cash PAT basis and negative PAT from non-cash amortization, and higher losses in Q1 FY27 due to a heat wave; no clean EPS impact disclosure exists in the record.
  20. Cayman insurance - breakeven trajectory Partial - At Q1 FY26, Anesh Shetty said Cayman Integrated Care was expected to reach "breakeven to plus or minus, slightly positive, hopefully by the end of the year or 1st Quarter next year", later softened to "too early to say" and to losses coming down "over the next 3 quarters or so". The quarterly loss narrowed from \~USD 5.2 million to \~USD 3.7 million by Q1 FY27, still short of breakeven.
  21. Integrated care cash burn - FY25 not to exceed ₹55 crore H2 Missed - At Q2 FY25, management said NHIC/NHIL EBITDA burn of \~₹25 crores in H1 FY25 would not exceed ₹55 crores for the remaining year. FY25 integrated care cash burn came in at ₹65 crores, with the Q4 FY25 PPT showing NHIC and NHIL EBITDA of -₹64.45 crores in FY25.
  22. Integrated care (clinics + insurance) - investment envelope ₹400-500 crore On track - At Q3 FY25, Viren Shetty said ₹400-500 crore was mentally set aside for building the new business, refined at Q4 FY25 to \~₹400 crores over a 3-4 year horizon and ₹450 crores at Q1 FY26 with ₹250 cr already invested. Clinics and insurance losses stayed flat at around ₹66 crores in FY26, with no breach of the envelope disclosed.
  23. Insurance business - go live, expand beyond Mysore Delivered - At Q1 FY24, Ravi Vishwanath declined to commit to a timeframe for the standalone insurance business going live, with the IRDAI application filed; the license arrived in early January 2024 with go-live expected "next quarter". Aditi launched in Mysore in late June 2024, Arya launched in Q4 FY25, and expansion to Kolkata, Shimoga and Raipur followed with GWP of ₹438 Mn in FY26.
  24. NHIC clinics - Bengaluru rollout, breakeven in 18 months per clinic On track - At Q4 FY23, Viren Shetty said the NHIC clinic investment "is not more than INR 50 crores", with clinics light on capex and fast to breakeven; at Q4 FY24 the plan was "about 20-30 clinics per year" at 1-2 crores each. Clinic count grew from 7 in Bangalore at Q4 FY24 to 11 by Q4 FY26, with the first cohort broken even within the 18-month model.
  25. Debt-to-equity - keep under 1 Delivered - At Q1 FY23, Sandhya J said "we do not intend to breach the debt equity of 1 at the outer limit", later adding comfort with debt/EBITDA up to \~3 and net debt to EBITDA below 2.5. Net debt-to-equity stood at 0.49 as of 31st March 2026 and 0.42 as of 30th June 2026, though gross D/E on the reported-financials basis is 1.29.
  26. Capex FY24 - ₹1,100 crore Partial - At Q4 FY23, Nishant Singh guided FY24 capex of around ₹1,100 crores, \~₹700 crores through bank funding, reiterated at Q1 FY24 and tracked through the year. At Q4 FY24, management reported spending \~₹850 crores actual, excluding subsidiaries, saying "we slightly underspent on that", with the PPT showing capital outlay of upwards of 900 crore.
  27. Capex FY23 - north of ₹1,000 crore Partial - At Q4 FY22, Debangshu Sarkar guided FY23 total outlay "possibly could be north of INR 1000 crores" with upward bias, including \~USD 50 million Cayman expansion capex, tracked through the year with ₹680 crore incurred in 9M. At Q2 FY24, management said balance-sheet movement was \~700 crores due to delayed orders and construction work, below the guided figure.
  28. New hospitals (Gurugram, Dharamshila) - 15-17% sustainable margins in 3-5 years On track - At Q4 FY23, Venkatesh said new hospitals would reach Dharamshila-like margins "in the next 3-5 years", framed as 15-17% sustainable, with Dharamshila already at 15-16% by Q2 FY24. By Q4 FY24, Dharamshila was "very consistent at 15% plus" while Gurugram's combined EBITDA margin was around 9% on a 115 crores revenue base, and the new hospital cluster reached \~11% EBITDA by Q2 FY25.
  29. Mumbai hospital breakeven - by end of FY24 Partial - At Q2 FY23, Sandhya J said the Mumbai hospital may break even in another 6 to 9 months, with the target refined to flat EBITDA by end of FY24 and then stabilization expected in Q2 FY25. Mumbai posted its first positive quarterly EBITDA of \~0.6 crore at Q4 FY23 and \~1.5% in Q2 FY25, but oscillated around breakeven, only breaking even again in Q4 FY26.
  30. ALOS reduction - to 4.1-4.2 over 6-8 quarters Partial - At Q1 FY23, Dr. Rupert said ALOS (\~4.6) would come down to around 4.1 over roughly eight quarters, reiterated at Q3 FY23 and Q4 FY23, with the ambition later raised toward 3.5 and 3.9-4. ALOS fell from 4.5 to 4.3 by Q1 FY26 and FY26 closed at 4.3, still short of the 4.1 target.
  31. Cayman margin target - preserve 40-45% long-term Delivered - At Q2 FY23, Anesh Shetty set the Cayman margin target at the current 40-45%, "that is our long-term target as well to preserve that", with dilution guidance later refined to 4-5 quarters post-commissioning. Cayman margins came back to 45% by Q4 FY25, ran at about 43-44% per quarter through FY26, and returned to optimal levels after ramp-up in Q1 FY27.
  32. Cayman new hospital (Camana Bay Block B) - commissioning targeted Q1 FY25 Partial - At Q1 FY24, management said the bigger Cayman hospital was hoped to be commissioned in Q1 FY25; the Q4 FY24 call set inauguration for July with patients from early August. Inauguration slipped to July 2024, outpatient services began only in early November 2024 with full-hospital approval still pending, and all services were commissioned only by Q1 FY26.
  33. Cayman radiotherapy center - commissioned by Q4 FY23 Delivered - At Q1 FY23, Anesh Shetty said the Cayman radiotherapy center was "on track to have... commissioned by Q4 of the current fiscal year", with Q2 FY23 guiding commissioning in Q4 FY23 and Q3 FY23 slipping services to April. Operations started about eight days before the Q4 FY23 call, in mid-May 2023, with the first batch of patients treated, and the block saw good traction in Q1 FY24.
  34. Bangalore Health City expansion - double capacity, construction from Q4 FY24 On track - At Q1 FY23, management said brownfield expansion in Bangalore/Kolkata would ultimately "double the capacity of both hospitals", with construction at Bangalore Health City set to start from Q4 FY24 and new beds expected "closer to 3" years out. The HSR (215 beds, FY28) and South-West Bangalore (100 beds, FY27) projects are progressing per schedule, with the latter hoped to start by end of Q2 FY27.
  35. Kolkata greenfield hospital - \~1,000 beds, phased, construction start next year On track - At the Q4 FY22 call, management committed to a large phased greenfield hospital in Kolkata to "get to about a thousand beds", with Rajarhat land acquired for ₹180 cr at Q4 FY24 and first phase to commence by FY28; phase 1 of \~350 beds was later targeted "near FY28". The Q1 FY27 PPT shifted Rajarhat completion to FY29, with no beds commissioned yet and FY26 greenfield capex at ₹109 cr against ₹424 cr planned.