Key Takeaways
- Revenue missed the peak, not the path: Revenue fell ~₹14 crores short of the September 2024 high, but management attributes the gap entirely to TSP sales-cycle spillovers, not lost business.
- Margins compressed on delivery mix: EBITDA margin dropped 300–400 bps as TSP-heavy project delivery pushed operation costs from 34% to 40% of revenue; a SaaS and global pivot is the stated remedy.
- A product pipeline is converting into revenue streams: EVOK 3.0, the AI risk engine, RegTech, and Banking Connect are all expected to begin contributing revenue within the next two quarters.
- The license-to-subscription flip is imminent: Management expects the current 70:30 license-to-SaaS revenue split to reverse starting next year, driven by mid-to-small bank demand for hosted solutions.
- What to watch next quarter: Whether the promised Q4 all-time-high quarter materializes, the pace of new TSP account announcements, and any concrete inorganic deal progress.
The Quarter's Shortfall
- TSP spillover, not demand destruction: 85–90% of revenue comes from TSP, where longer sales cycles pushed deals into the next quarter; management insists no business was lost.
- Payment platform hit: The payment platform opportunity softened over the last couple of quarters as customers' paying capacity declined and merchant profiles shifted toward banks rather than aggregators.
- Cost structure shifted with the mix: Operation costs rose to 40% from 34% because TSP project delivery carries heavier ongoing costs than subscription or global projects.
- Monitoring agency flagged a technical observation: ₹3.18 crores under general corporate purpose was flagged as a classification issue; management clarified the funds went strictly to operational expenses with no diversion, and the monitoring agency confirmed no major deviation in overall utilization.
Deepak Chand Thakur: "Honestly, we were completely surprised when it came yesterday."
Product Pipeline & New Revenue Streams
- Offline payments surged: Offline payments grew 60% quarter-on-quarter, creating a new revenue stream with a stronger year-on-year cumulative impact.
- EVOK 3.0 crossed a threshold: The platform added PPI through a partner bank and secured its first use case with an ERP solution provider; revenue is anticipated from Q1 next year.
- AI risk engine nearing monetization: Built over two years, the predictive fraud analytics platform claims accuracy above 90% and is expected to contribute revenue from multiple streams within the next two quarters.
- RegTech spun out as a standalone: Originally core to the payment platform, inbound RFPs specifically calling out the solution gave management confidence to create an enterprise version; revenue is expected in Q1.
- PPI issuance solution launched: The first account has been won, and the company is moving beyond payment aggregators into the merchant segment with a redesigned product.
- Lending platform in early discussions: A QR-based lending solution built over the last two years is in early-stage bank discussions, with a launch expected in the next six months.
Deepak Chand Thakur: "It's a risk intelligence decisioning platform, which is AI-based. And basis 2 years of effort in building this particular solution, we have been able to arrive at a predictive fraud analytics."
Banking Connect: The Next Platform Bet
- Positioned as "UPI for Internet banking": Management describes Banking Connect as a UPI-like movement for Internet banking, with NPST among the first TSPs to launch it.
- Scale is the thesis: The addressable base is roughly 2,000 banks, and the segment is open for capture over the next two years; two clients have already been executed with a lengthy pipeline lined up.
- Revenue won't match UPI: Management cautioned that Banking Connect revenue cannot equal UPI revenue because UPI is a more mature ecosystem.
- Contribution estimate is directional only: When pressed for a percentage contribution to the top line in 15–18 months, management offered a high-level 10–15% estimate but declined to commit to a firm number.
Deepak Chand Thakur: "Banking Connect is -- I just call Banking Connect as a UPI movement for Internet banking. And I'll give credit to my product organization where they identified the opportunity first, and we are one of the first TSP to launch the Banking Connect."
Business Model Transition
- The 70:30 split is about to invert: Currently, 7 out of 10 TSP contracts are license-based; management expects this to completely reverse next year as SaaS-based subscription revenue becomes dominant, driven by mid-to-small banks that prefer hosted solutions.
- TSP restructured for scale: Six months ago, TSP was broken into small, mid, and large business segments to enable multiple account wins; the restructuring has built a strong funnel.
- Two distinct tracks now operational: The company spent nearly a year separating license-based and subscription-based approaches; a light-cost hosted solution with all products live is now in place, and subscription revenue is expected to begin in Q4 itself.
- Non-linear growth unlocked: The same set of products going to multiple markets and customers will reduce cost per project, enabling non-linear growth as the subscription base scales.
- Margin path runs through SaaS and global: Management expects SaaS subscription, PPaaS, and global market additions, all higher-margin, to improve margins beyond the 35% benchmark.
International & Inorganic Growth
- Global team deployed: An independent international market team has been introduced and has received a good response to initial outreach; one deal from Nigeria was closed last year.
- Multiple country discussions underway: The company is engaged in discussions with approximately 10 to 11 countries, and management expects multiple international deals to become visible in the next two quarters.
- Global revenue timeline: Management stated global revenue will hit in the next six months.
- Tata Mutual Fund raise earmarked for M&A: Funds raised from Tata Mutual Fund are designated purely for inorganic growth, targeting consolidation opportunities in the segment; management is targeting or planning inorganic moves in the next two quarters but declined to give a specific deal timeline without Board approval.
- HSM contract with NPCI: A license-based HSM contract with annual maintenance was won, the first such contract to work after a failed attempt three years ago; incremental orders will add to revenues.
Margins & Cost Structure
- Delivery mix drove the margin hit: The 300–400 bps EBITDA margin compression versus expectation is a function of TSP-heavy business carrying a different margin profile, with operation costs rising to 40% from 34% as TSP project delivery costs kicked in.
- Subscription and global projects carry structurally lower costs: Global and subscription projects do not incur the same ongoing delivery costs as TSP projects, so the mix shift toward SaaS and international revenue is the primary margin improvement lever.
- Product maturity is improving capital allocation: Some products with low demand were identified and put on hold; management points to this as evidence of organizational maturity in investment decisions.
- AI is a margin tailwind for a product company: Management argued that AI improves efficiency and delivery capability for a product company rather than threatening revenue, because NPST designs solutions rather than selling manpower.
Deepak Chand Thakur: "We are not into services business, where the revenue source is purely providing manpower and that is where the AI has an impact. In fact, we are designing the solutions and products. So, what happens in this space is our efficiency and our delivery capability improves... this is good for the product company."
Guidance & Commitments
| Commitment | Specifics | Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| All-time high quarter | Confident of hitting or crossing the all-time high quarterly revenue | Q4 FY26 |
| AI risk engine revenue | Revenue contribution from multiple streams | Next 2 quarters |
| EVOK 3.0 revenue | Start adding revenue | Q1 next year |
| RegTech revenue | Hit revenue | Q1 next year |
| Global revenue | Hit revenue | Next 6 months |
| International deal visibility | Multiple international deals to start being seen | Next 2 quarters |
| TSP new account announcements | Multiple announcements expected before financial year-end | Q4 FY26 |
| Subscription revenue start | Subscription-based revenue through hosted model begins | Q4 FY26 |
| PPI issuance revenue | Revenue begins | Q4 FY26 / Q1 next year |
| Lending platform launch | QR-based solution launch with banks | Next 6 months |
| Inorganic growth | Targeting or planning inorganic moves | Next 2 quarters |
| License-to-SaaS split reversal | 70:30 split reverses, SaaS becomes dominant | Next year |
| 2030 growth target | Grow 2x the industry rate | By 2030 |
Key Metrics
| Metric | Q3 FY26 |
|---|---|
| Total income | ₹57.17 cr, +17.46% QoQ and +145% YoY |
| Revenue | ₹53 cr, +12.8% QoQ from ₹47 cr in Q2 |
| EBITDA | ₹18.74 cr, +20% QoQ and +118% YoY |
| PAT | ~₹11.5 cr, +17.28% QoQ and +124% YoY |
| Diluted EPS | ₹5.92, +35% QoQ and +137% YoY |
| 9-month operating margin | 29%, down from 35% in FY25 (per an analyst's math) |
| Operating costs as share of revenue | 40%, up from 34% (per an analyst's math) |
| Revenue growth trajectory | 15% to 20% QoQ for the financial year |
| TSP share of total business | 85% to 90% |
| Revenue from subscription and transaction-volume models | ~40% |
| License vs SaaS split within TSP | 70:30 contractually, expected to reverse next year |
| Banking Connect estimated revenue contribution | 10% to 15% at a high level |
| Spillover from Q3 into Q4 | ₹10+ cr |
| New bank additions in FY26 so far | 10+ banks, including 2 private sector and 1 cooperative bank |
| UPI monthly transaction volume | Crossed 2,000 cr barrier, trending toward 2,100 cr |