Key Takeaways
- Volume up 6% YoY, early monsoon a drag: Volume reached 0.51 crore tons despite demand challenges from an early monsoon setting in across East, North and West regions by May-end.
- Realization improved ~₹295/ton QoQ, holding into July: Pricing held firm with small corrections from Q4 to Q1, and management reports similar realizations three weeks into Q2.
- Vadraj Cement acquisition closed, integration underway: The 0.35 crore ton clinker and 0.6 crore ton grinding unit acquisition was completed this quarter, with plants targeted for trial runs by H1 FY27 and full operations by Q3 FY27.
- Freight cost spiked ₹145/ton QoQ on temporary rerouting: Rake availability issues at key sites and clinker stock shortages forced longer hauls; management targets ₹70–₹80/ton reduction in coming quarters.
- What to watch next quarter: Whether prices hold through the monsoon, the pace of freight cost reversal, and progress on Vadraj plant refurbishment and Orissa siding commissioning.
Pricing & Realization
- Prices held through Q1 and into Q2: Prices started improving from December, increased further in certain target markets in Q4, and continued to hold good in Q1 versus Q4 with only small corrections. Three weeks into Q2 (July), the company still commands similar realizations.
- Premium product share hit a historical high of 41%: Concreto Uno, launched late last year, is growing QoQ and rolling out across all Eastern markets including Orissa soon. Duraguard Microfiber sales increased 50% from Q4 to Q1 after rollout into the erstwhile Double Bull channel in Haryana, Rajasthan, Western UP, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh.
- Trade share reached a 13-quarter high of 76%: Combined with focus on home markets in Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan and Haryana, this mix shift supported the ~₹295/ton QoQ realization improvement.
- Volume strategy balanced growth with value: After prioritizing value over volume in Q2 and Q1 last year due to cost pressures, the company sensibly pursued volumes as well, delivering double-digit growth in Q3 last year, high single-digit in Q4, and 6% in Q1, keeping growth in line with the market.
Jayakumar Krishnaswamy: "Happy to report when we came to Q1 FY'26, the price continued to hold good in Q1 when compared to Q4 with small corrections as well happening in Q4 to Q1. But what is the positive, encouraging thing is as we enter Q2 in July, we still are able to hold prices as our company, and we still command the similar kind of prices and realization in the market 3 weeks into Q2."
Vadraj Cement Acquisition & Integration
- Acquisition completed this quarter: Vadraj Cement brings a 0.35 crore ton clinker unit, a 0.6 crore ton grinding unit, captive limestone and a captive jetty. Manpower mobilization is progressing well, with key personnel including port operations staff already onboarded. Release of key purchase orders for plant refurbishment has begun, and major OEM visits are underway.
- Kutch grinding unit decision finalized: A 6.3 meter VRM with 0.25 crore ton capacity will be installed in Kutch to secure long-term capacity and provide flexibility.
- Surat mill to start with one mill at 0.2 crore tons: This optimizes CAPEX cost; the second and third mills will restart as the market grows.
- Railway siding planned at Vayor: The railway line has reached Vayor near Naliya, Kutch, where two competitors already have plants. The company plans a railway siding there to enable rake movement of cement. One competitor is already using the open platform to dispatch clinkers.
- No slag cement entry planned for Gujarat yet: Gujarat is predominantly an OPC and PPC market. If slag cement demand emerges in future, the company has the experience to launch it.
- Gujarat sales expansion targeted: From the current 0.1 crore tons, the target is 0.12–0.13 crore tons by end of this year, and close to 0.15–0.18 crore tons by FY27 end. In year one of Vadraj, an incremental 0.03–0.04 crore tons over the current base is targeted.
Cost & Efficiency
- Freight cost rose ₹145/ton QoQ on three temporary factors: Rake availability issues in May and June at Arasmeta and Jojobera forced rerouting of material to Bihar from Panagarh, increasing freight cost. The Haryana cement plant running at maximum capacity utilization increased semi-finished goods and clinker movement from Nimbol into Haryana. Thin clinker stocks in the North in Q4 and the Chittor plant shutdown required moving cement from Arasmeta, Sonadih and Risda westward to MP, Indore, Gwalior and Ratlam markets.
- Freight cost reduction of ₹70–₹80/ton targeted in coming quarters: The plan includes reducing lead distance by 10–13 km, selling more products in closer markets, shifting from STM to SO, and increasing direct dispatches.
- BRIDGE program delivered ₹86/ton cost savings in FY25: Savings came from power and fuel cost optimization, elimination of material losses through stricter quality controls, controlling damages and demurrages, and increasing direct dispatches.
- FY26 cost savings target of ~₹50/ton over FY25: Levers include increasing allied slag usage from 45,000 to 75,000 tons per month, WHR de-bottlenecking in Nimbol from 4.7 MW to 6.6 MW with ₹10 crores CAPEX, AFR increase from 12% to 15–16%, hybrid wind and solar in the North region over the next 1–1.5 years, lead distance reduction by 12–15 km, and Orissa siding commissioning in Q3.
- AFR target of 15% in H2 post-monsoon: Petcoke target is less than 40% in H2. The shredder commissioned in Q4 in Chittor is fully operational.
- Slag tightness in the East being managed: Overall slag availability is tightening as more players enter the composite and slag cement segment, and auction prices have risen compared to three years ago. Nuvoco is mitigating this by using allied slag, a different material from regular blast furnace slag, with proven capability to use 75,000 tons of it.
Jayakumar Krishnaswamy: "One of the key agendas for bringing down this freight cost in the ensuing quarters, one of the key agenda we are driving this quarter 1 and then going forward is to reduce the lead distance by close to about 10 to 13 kilometers."
Demand Environment & Outlook
- Early monsoon created Q1 headwinds: The monsoon set in early, covering Kerala to Assam in one week by May-end, creating demand challenges in East, North and West regions.
- Demand drivers are improving on the ground: H1 last year saw a demand pinch from pre-election and post-election dynamics, with funds not flowing and budgetary allocations on PMAY and state programs not taking off. As the year progressed and into this year, things are improving. The monsoon will cause some downside, but yearly average industry growth of 7–10% is expected.
- Post-monsoon optimism driven by government spending: Significant CAPEX by central and state governments, particularly in housing and infrastructure, the SWAMIH fund for 1 lakh dwelling units, ₹1.5 lakh crores in interest-free 50-year loans to states, and ₹38,000 crores for housing in Eastern states are expected to drive demand.
- C/K ratio dynamics: The East C/K ratio is 2 and above; the North is lower due to PPC and OPC; blended at 1.74. As Vadraj enters Gujarat and Maharashtra with more OPC sales, sustaining 1.75 long-term will not be possible. The East will sustain 2.1, and the blended target remains 1.74.
Balance Sheet & Financing
- Target debt level of ₹3,500–₹4,000 crores: Management is clear this is the concentration level for the company to grow and become larger, and it has a proven track record of running operations to pare down debt. The target is to bring debt levels to twice EBITDA, worst case 2–2.5x, ideally less than 2x.
- Bridge financing to convert within 2–3 months: Bridge financing is for a short-term period of maximum 2–3 months, with the hope of converting this debt into an equity-like instrument in the coming 2–3 months.
- CCPS/CCD instruments have a 4–6 year horizon: By FY29, the company should have the ability to exercise a call option. If market conditions are difficult, investors will have a put option on the parent promoter group company.
- Orissa siding under commissioning: Expected to be operational in two months with all permits and approvals. By Q3, 100% of clinker movement to Jajpur will go via siding.
Jayakumar Krishnaswamy: "I just want to assure all of you, we are mindful of how we run our own company. And we are very clear what kind of debt levels are helping the organization. And if you really look at the last 3 to 4 years, one of the things which we have always said is, for our company to grow and become larger and larger in the coming years, a debt level of Rs. 3,500 to Rs. 4,000 crores is a number which we would like to concentrate on."
Profitability Sustainability
- EBITDA per ton above ₹1,000 is sustainable if prices hold: Management states that if prices do not go south, the company should be able to sustain current profitability in coming quarters and beyond, driven by internal levers of cost savings, premiumisation, trade share, and home markets programs.
- Cost savings provide a buffer: The ₹50/ton targeted cost savings for FY26, combined with the BRIDGE program's demonstrated delivery, create a margin cushion independent of pricing.
- Premiumisation and trade share are structural shifts: The 41% premium product share and 76% trade share represent multi-quarter highs, not one-off spikes, and both programs continue to expand geographically.
Jayakumar Krishnaswamy: "If the prices don't go south, we should certainly be able to sustain this kind of profitability in the coming quarter and beyond."
Guidance & Commitments
| Commitment | Specifics | Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| Vadraj plant trial runs | Kutch and Surat plants and associated equipment including jetty ready for trial runs | H1 FY27 |
| Vadraj full operations | Plants at Kutch and Surat operationalized | Q3 FY27 |
| Bridge financing conversion | Convert bridge debt into equity-like instrument | 2–3 months |
| Orissa siding operational | 100% clinker movement to Jajpur via siding | Q3 FY26 |
| Freight cost reduction | Reduce freight cost by ₹70–₹80/ton | Coming quarters |
| AFR target | Achieve 15% AFR; petcoke below 40% | H2 FY26 |
| FY26 cost savings | ~₹50/ton over FY25 full-year average | FY26 |
| Gujarat sales expansion | Grow from 0.1 crore tons to 0.12–0.13 crore tons | End of FY26 |
| Gujarat sales target | Reach close to 0.15–0.18 crore tons | End of FY27 |
| Debt-to-EBITDA target | Bring debt to 2x EBITDA, ideally less than 2x | Not dated |
| CCPS/CCD call option | Ability to exercise call option | By FY29 |
Key Metrics
| Metric | Q1 FY26 |
|---|---|
| Consolidated revenue | ₹2,873 cr, +9% YoY |
| Volume | 0.51 crore tons, +6% YoY |
| Consolidated EBITDA | ₹533 cr, highest ever Q1 |
| Blended EBITDA per ton | ₹1,052, 16-quarter high |
| Cement realization | +₹295/ton QoQ |
| Capacity utilization | 82% |
| Premium product share | 41%, historical high |
| Trade mix | 76%, 13-quarter high |
| Blended fuel cost | ₹1.43/Mcal, broadly in line with Q4 FY25 |
| Petcoke share in fuel mix | 42%; target <40% in H2 FY26 |
| AFR usage | 10%; target ~15% post-monsoon in H2 |
| Lead distance | 334 km |
| Freight cost change | +₹145/ton QoQ; target ₹70–₹80/ton reduction in coming quarters |
| Net debt | ₹3,474 cr, reduced by ₹884 cr YoY |
| Cement-to-clinker ratio | 1.74 blended; East 2 and above |
| Carbon emission footprint | 454 kg CO2/ton of cementitious material in FY25, vs 457 in FY24 |
| Vadraj total outlay | ₹3,600 cr (₹1,800 cr acquisition + ₹1,600 cr refurbishment + ₹200 cr captive power plant) |
| Vadraj financing | ₹600 cr long-term debt; ₹1,200 cr via CCPS/CCDs, not on balance sheet as debt |
| Industry volume growth outlook | 7%–10% for FY26 |
| Cost saving target for FY26 | ~₹50/ton over and above FY25 on full-year average |
| Depreciation run-rate | ~₹200 cr per quarter |
| Interest cost run-rate | ~₹100–₹110 cr per quarter |
| Maintenance capex | ₹100–₹150 cr per year for next 3 years |
| Vadraj capex phasing | ₹600 cr FY26, ₹600 cr FY27, ~₹300 cr FY28 |
| Vadraj operational target | Trial runs by H1 FY27, full functioning by Q3 FY27 |