1. FY26 EBITDA margin - 8-10% Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management reiterated EBITDA margin guidance of 8-10% for FY26. FY26 EBITDA margin came in at 6.60%, with only Q1 FY26 at 8.03% inside the range and the remaining quarters between 5.26% and 6.89%.
2. FY26 revenue growth - 8-10% Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided 8-10% growth in sales for FY26. FY26 revenue was ₹1,030.8 cr, up 11% YoY from ₹928 cr in FY25, exceeding the guided range.
3. FY24 revenue - at least match FY23 levels Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided FY24 revenue to at least reach FY23 levels. FY24 revenue was ₹836 cr, down 1.5% from FY23's ₹849 cr.
4. Gross margin - \~36% target to achieve 15% EBITDA Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, CFO Girish Khandelwal confirmed the long-term gross margin target of \~36% (range 36-37%) to achieve 15% EBITDA margins, later raised to 39-40% at the Q4 FY25 call. Gross margin was 28.9% in Q2 FY23 and \~34-35% by Q4 FY24, then held in the 38-41% range through FY25 - the 36% level was reached, but the associated 15% EBITDA margin never was.
5. Debt-to-equity - not to cross 0.4x during capex Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, CFO Girish Khandelwal guided that the debt-equity ratio should not cross 0.4x even with large capex underway. Net debt-to-equity was 0.34x in Q3 FY23 and 0.30x in Q4 FY24, then breached 0.4x at 0.45x in Q3 FY25, standing at 0.58x in Q4 FY26 and 0.56x in Q1 FY27.
6. Revenue milestone - ₹1,200 cr top line at full capacity Pending - At the Q1 FY25 call, management stated peak revenue from all new projects would reach \~₹1,200 cr top line at current selling prices once plants reach full capacity over the next few quarters, restated in Q4 FY26 as ₹1,200-1,250 cr excluding Mahad. FY26 revenue was ₹1,030.8 cr and Q1 FY27 revenue of ₹260 cr annualizes to \~₹1,040 cr.
7. Debt ceiling - peak debt of ₹250-300 cr during capex Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management expected peak debt including term loan of around ₹250-300 cr when capex is done in about one and a half years, later revised to ₹370-380 cr at Q4 FY23 and back to \~₹280 cr at Q1 FY25. Actual debt at capex completion was ₹170 cr versus the earlier predicted ₹360 cr peak, with the Downfield term loan at ₹20 cr outstanding and Mahad's peak debt guided at ₹70 cr in Q1 FY25.
8. Bareilly process reengineering - 70% capacity expansion, ₹35 cr incremental revenue Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, management committed that the Bareilly 70% process-reengineering expansion, due over by December 2021 with ₹15-18 cr investment, would deliver incremental revenue of at least ₹35 cr every year once passed to top line. The expansion was completed in Q3 FY22 at ₹4-5 cr capex and all additional terpineol quantities were sold by Q3 FY23, but the ₹35 cr annual revenue figure is not confirmed in the record.
9. Capex program - ₹325-400 cr over 3-5 years at 1.7x asset turn Partial - At the Q2 FY21 call, management outlined total expansion capex of about ₹325 cr (₹125 cr Baroda + ₹150-200 cr Mahad) over 1,000-1,300 days targeting \~1.7x asset turn, raised to ₹350-400 cr at Q2 FY22, then scaled back in Q3 FY24 with only ₹120 cr spent and the rest on hold. CWIP rose from ₹52.65 cr in FY23 to ₹173 cr in FY24, then fell to ₹4.97 cr in FY25 and ₹4.72 cr in FY26, with the Mahad multi-purpose plant postponed.
10. Mahad greenfield phase 1 - commissioned by Q3/Q4 FY23 Partial - At the Q3 FY21 call, management set an internal target of December 2022 for some numbers from Mahad, with the timeline repeatedly revised through Q4 FY24. Commercial production commenced on 12 November 2024, roughly 7-8 months after the last guided deadline of Q4 FY24, with capacity of 250 metric tons annually of Evermoss.
11. Baroda hydrogenation plant - commissioned by end H1 2023 Partial - At the Q3 FY21 call, management guided hydrogenation capacity online in Q4 FY22, with the deadline successively revised to end H1 calendar 2023. The plant at Vadodara was commissioned in July 2024, roughly 12-13 months after the last guided deadline, was at 60-70% utilization by Q3 FY25 and EBITDA positive by Q2 FY26.
12. Baroda single-product specialty plant - commissioned October/November 2021 Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided the Greenfield single-product plant in Baroda would be commissioned in October 2021, with commercial production committed from 1st November 2021. The plant was commissioned in the December 2021 quarter with commercial batches sold, and by Q3 FY23 had achieved close to 70% of planned production in calendar 2022 with 80% commercially sold.
13. Baroda brownfield expansion - commissioned by Q3/Q4 FY21 Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management said the first Baroda project would be commissioned around Q3/early Q4 FY21, possibly as early as November 2020. The brownfield multipurpose plant expansion was completed in November 2020 for \~₹9-10 cr, with contribution beginning from February 2021, ahead of the Q1 FY22 expectation.
14. ROE - maintain 18-19% after capex Missed - At the Q1 FY21 call, management confirmed ROE would remain in the range of 18-19% after FY22, once capex is over. FY23 ROE was 3.16%, FY24 1.44%, FY25 5.17% and FY26 0.48% - ROE never approached 18-19% in any reported period after FY22.
15. EBITDA margin - 15-17% sustainable going forward Missed - At the Q1 FY21 call, management guided 15-17% as a sustainable EBITDA margin going ahead, reset to 7-10% in Q1 FY23, then 10-12% in Q3 FY24 and 8-10% in Q1 FY26. Margins ran from 21.88% in FY21 to 6.38% in FY23, 10.06% in FY25 and 6.60% in FY26, with Q1 FY27 at 7.62% - 15-17% was never achieved after FY21.
16. Revenue growth - 15% CAGR over next 3-4 years Missed - At the Q1 FY21 call, management reiterated guidance of growing around 15% on a revenue basis over the next three to four years, later reset to 5-7% for FY23, 8-10% for FY26 and 10-15% near-term at Q1 FY27. Revenue went from ₹709 cr in FY21 to ₹1,030.8 cr in FY26, a three-year CAGR of 6.68% through FY26.