1. 63 MW Bihar rooftop solar - ₹500+ crore cumulative revenue opportunity Pending - At the announcement of the 63 MW Bihar rooftop solar orders, management framed an installation order value of \~₹247 crore plus an estimated ₹257 crore of long-term energy-supply revenue over a 10-year tenure, "translating into a cumulative revenue opportunity exceeding ₹500 crore". The orders were secured; no revenue recognition from them is disclosed in our record as of Q1 FY27.
2. IPO proceeds utilization - as per stated objects On track - The IPO objects allocated ₹841.51 crore across capex (₹89.86 crore), Oswal Solar Karnal units (₹272.76 crore), borrowings repayment (₹280.00 crore plus ₹31.00 crore) and general corporate purposes (₹167.90 crore). As of 30 June 2026, ₹605.97 crore of ₹841.51 crore was utilized; both debt objects were fully utilized, GCP stood at ₹165.02 crore, and capex and Karnal were partially deployed at ₹36.19 crore and ₹93.76 crore respectively.
3. 63 MW Bihar rooftop solar projects - commissioned within 9 months of PPA execution Pending - At the announcement of the 63 MW Bihar rooftop solar orders, all projects were "expected to be commissioned within nine months from PPA execution". The orders were secured, but no commissioning is disclosed in our record as of 2 September 2026 and the PPA execution date is not specified in our record.
4. Q2 FY27 YoY revenue growth - more than 10-15% Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, the CMD expected Q2 FY27 YoY revenue growth of "more than 10% to 15%". Q2 FY27 results are not yet available in our record as of 2 September 2026.
5. Wires and cables revenue - ₹70-100 crore in FY27 Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, the CMD expected ₹70 crores to ₹100 crores of revenue from wires and cables in FY27, using existing spare in-house capacity without significant capex. No wires and cables revenue is disclosed for Q1 FY27 and no subsequent read appears in our record.
6. PM Surya Ghar revenue - ₹800-1,000 crore in FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, the CMD guided to revenue of ₹800 crores to ₹1,000 crores from PM Surya Ghar (\~2 lakh homes) in FY27, with contribution commencing from Q2 onward. Q1 FY27 PM Surya Ghar contribution was "virtually negligible"; no Q2 or full-year FY27 read is yet available.
7. PM Surya Ghar - 2 lakh solar installations in FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, the CMD targeted \~2,00,000 solar installations under PM Surya Ghar for FY27, calling it "our major target for this year" and an "ambitious target for the first year". Q1 FY27 contribution was "virtually negligible" with Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan execution started, and the solar EPC order book stood at \~72 MW with a 359 MW pipeline.
8. Peak turnover potential - ₹6,000-6,500 crore post-expansion Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated a peak turnover potential of \~₹6,000-6,500 crores post-expansion from current pump and solar module capacity, with pump capacity up \~2.25x and modules up \~2.5-3x. Expansion is still underway - pump capacity at 2 lakh and module capacity at 570 MW as of Q1 FY27 - so the peak turnover remains contingent on completion.
9. FY27 non-pump diversification revenue - \~₹1,000 crore On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected \~₹1,000 crores of FY27 revenue from non-pump diversification (PM Surya Ghar, solar panels, inverter, export, private network) with clear visibility. Q1 FY27 PM Surya Ghar contribution was "virtually negligible", and the solar EPC order book stood at \~72 MW with a 359 MW pipeline; no full-year read yet.
10. Solar inverter in-house production - within 6-7 months On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected solar inverter end-to-end internal production to start within six to seven months, with assembly in the coming few months; at Q1 FY27 the CMD expected in-house production "within 6 months" with a prototype made and field tests starting "in the next 2 months". Internal work on electronics and software/hardware has started; no production start is disclosed yet.
11. FY27 capex - \~₹350 crore infusion On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected around ₹350 crores of capex infused in FY27, covering Oswal Solar's expansion from 600 MW to 2.1 GW plus backward integration by Q3. At Q1 FY27, the CMD noted full-year capex of \~₹360-400 crores with IPO-proceeds capex as per plan; IPO utilization as of 30 June 2026 showed ₹36.19 crore of ₹89.86 crore and ₹93.76 crore of ₹272.76 crore deployed.
12. FY27 PAT margin - 15-16% (later 11-13%) On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 PAT margin to 15-16%; at Q1 FY27 the CFO revised this to "in the range of 11% to 13%". Q1 FY27 PAT margin was 11.2%, at the lower end of the revised range; no full-year read yet.
13. FY27 operating EBITDA margin - 22-23% (later 15-17%) On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 operating EBITDA margin to 22.0-23.0%; at Q1 FY27 the CFO revised it to "in the range of 15% to 17%", on the "safer side" excluding PM KUSUM 2.0 pricing benefit. Q1 FY27 operating EBITDA margin was 15.7%, within the revised range; no full-year read yet.
14. FY27 revenue growth - 20-25% On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management targeted FY27 revenue growth of 20-25% over FY26 with a distinctly back-ended profile, reiterated at Q1 FY27 as "very much confident… no tension". Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹474 crore, down 7.9% YoY, which management called "broadly in line" with the indicated phasing; no full-year read yet.
15. FY27 solar pump installation visibility - 1-1.1 lakh pumps On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management stated FY27 visibility of 1 lakh to 1.10 lakh solar pump installations. Q1 FY27 solar pumps supplied were 19,724, below the 1-1.1 lakh run-rate annualized, but Q1 was guided to be a slow quarter; no full-year FY27 read yet.
16. No extra borrowing requirement - debt-free funding of capacity growth Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected no extra borrowing requirement, stating the company was debt-free and cash generation would fund capacity growth. Net debt rose from negative ₹8.9 crore at Q1 FY26 to ₹38 crore at Q2 FY26, ₹188 crore at Q3 FY26, ₹135 crore at Q4 FY26 and ₹266 crore at Q1 FY27, with total borrowings up from ₹1,838 mn to ₹3,076 mn between Jun'25 and Jun'26.
17. Backward integration and value engineering - +1% operating profitability by Q4 FY26 Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said backward integration and value engineering projects nearing completion would add "another 1%" to operating profitability "from quarter 4 FY '26". Q4 FY26 operating EBITDA margin was 23.2%, down from Q3's 25.4%, and no quantification of the +1% impact is disclosed in our record.
18. One-time Q2 FY26 margin impact recovery - by Q3 FY26 Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said the \~1.8% one-time margin impact in Q2 was "not expected to reoccur" and would be recovered by Q3. Q3 FY26 operating EBITDA margin improved to 25.4% from Q2's 23.7%, a sequential gain of 164 bps, largely recovering the \~180 bps one-time impact.
19. Q4 FY26 operating EBITDA margin - 26.25-26.75% (later 25.5-26%) Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided Q4 FY26 operating EBITDA margin of 26.25% to 26.75%, revised at Q3 FY26 to 25.5% to 26.0%. Q4 FY26 operating EBITDA margin came in at 23.2%, below the revised guided range.
20. Q3 FY26 operating EBITDA margin - 25.5-26% Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided Q3 FY26 operating EBITDA margin of 25.5% to 26%. Q3 FY26 operating EBITDA margin was 25.4%, essentially at the guided floor of 25.5% within rounding tolerance.
21. Medium-term revenue CAGR - 30-35% On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management set a medium-term goal of a 30% to 35% revenue CAGR, reiterated at Q3 FY26 and raised at Q4 FY26 to sustained 30-40% growth beyond FY27, reiterated by the CFO at Q1 FY27. FY26 revenue grew 44.3% and FY27 is guided at 20-25%; the medium-term window extends beyond FY27 with no read yet.
22. FY26 pump volume - 2,25,000-2,35,000 pumps Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management indicated FY26 volume expectation of \~2,25,000-2,35,000 pumps, and at Q2 FY26 reiterated the annual guidance with "no gap or concern in those numbers". FY26 total pumps supplied were 1,80,908, below the 2,25,000-2,35,000 expectation.
23. FY26 solar vs non-solar volume split - \~50:50 Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management anticipated a \~50:50 split between solar and non-solar pumps in FY26 volumes, within ±4-5%. FY26 supply was 1,80,908 pumps - 87,323 solar (48.3%) and 93,585 non-solar (51.7%), an approximately 48:52 split within the guided tolerance.
24. Receivable cycle reduction - \~30 days improvement Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected the \~120-125 day receivable cycle to reduce by about 30 days going forward, staying around 125-126 days in FY26, with working capital/debtor days trending lower by 4-5 days. Receivable days instead rose from 125-126 at Q1 FY26 to 138 at Q2, 157 at Q3, 155 at Q4 and 229 at Q1 FY27.
25. Helical pumps launch - sampling by end of Q3 FY26 Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management planned to launch helical pumps in the market as sampling by end of Q3 FY26, alongside boiler feed pumps by Q3 or Q4. By Q3 FY26, helical pumps were "developed to a great extent" but desired quality/performance results were "not coming at that level", with the launch being timed; no launch is disclosed through Q1 FY27.
26. Order book execution - \~30,000 pumps within two quarters Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected the \~30,000-pump order book (29,961 as of July 31, 2025, worth roughly ₹700-800 crores) to be fully executed within two quarters. Q2 FY26 saw 48,000 pumps supplied, of which 23,000 solar, and Q3 FY26 solar sales were 20,463 installations with the order book at over 24,500 pumps, indicating substantial execution within the window.
27. PM-KUSUM 2.0 launch expectation Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected PM-KUSUM 2.0 to launch by end of FY26, with successive updates pointing to January, March-April, and June 2026 announcement with tenders by August; at Q1 FY27 it was expected in Q2 FY27 with timing "no one can guarantee it". As of Q1 FY27 the scheme had not launched, with the PPT noting "Delay in the rollout of PM KUSUM 2.0".
28. Solar module expansion - 1.5 GW total (1 GW phase 1 + 0.5 GW phase 2) On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management was executing a planned 1.5 gigawatt solar module expansion per IPO proceeds, with the 1 GW first phase moved at Q1 FY27 from Q1 FY27 to end of Q2 FY27. As of Q1 FY27, ₹1 GW has been invested and commercial production is expected in the first or second week of September 2026, against current capacity of 570 MW; no read yet on the remaining 0.5 GW.
29. Pump manufacturing capacity expansion - 2 lakh to 5 lakh pumps On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management planned to raise pump capacity from \~2 lakh to more than 5 lakh pumps using IPO proceeds, with the timeline subsequently restated to "up to 5 lakh by H1 '27" and completion expected by Q3 FY27 at Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27. As of Q1 FY27 no completion is disclosed; the IPO capex object of ₹89.86 crore had ₹36.19 crore utilized as of 30 June 2026.
30. FY26 PAT margin - 18-20% Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided PAT margin of 18% to 20%, narrowed at Q2 FY26 to 17.5% to 19% and maintained at Q3 FY26. FY26 PAT margin was 18.0%, within the latest guided range, with quarterly prints of 18.4%, 17.8%, 18.0% and 17.9%.
31. FY26 operating EBITDA margin - 27-29% sustained Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided operating EBITDA margin of 27% to 29% as sustainable, with the team "very confident"; Q3 and Q4 were subsequently guided lower at 25.5-26% and 25.5-26.0%. FY26 operating EBITDA margin was 24.9%, below the 27-29% guided range.
32. FY26 revenue growth - 50-60% YoY Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided FY26 revenue growth of 50% to 60%, "absolutely surely achievable", reiterated at Q2 FY26 with \~₹2,200 crores turnover and narrowed at Q3 FY26 to "around 50%". FY26 operating income was ₹2,064 crores, up 44.3% YoY, with total income of ₹2,085.9 crore up 45.6% - against the latest \~50% target.