• Retail price cuts: Sanjiv Asthana expects an immediate ₹4 to ₹6 per kg reduction across oils before the festive season. Sunflower oil could see a larger cut, depending on supply and demand.
• Supply outlook: Domestic soybean and groundnut crops are arriving, and oil availability at ports is good, supporting stable-to-lower prices. Asthana expects prices to remain stable or trend lower over the next 1 month, 2 months.
• Global price risks: Freight, currency and international prices could change, but Asthana said they do not negate the duty-cut benefit already expected. He noted that global prices had not risen after the announcement, while war-related disruption remains a risk.
• Farmers and MSP: Asthana expects soybean to trade above MSP this year, with farmers potentially gaining substantially. He said the duty cut would not reduce farmers’ income under MSP.