• Global price surge: Over the past year, palm oil rose from $1,170 to $1,290, soy from $1,190 to $1,300, and sunflower from $1,270 to around $1,400 CNF per tonne, which combined with a 10% rupee depreciation has driven prices up by 14% to 25%.
• Duty differential recommendation: A 20% duty differential between crude and refined edible oils should be maintained to support domestic refining capacity, while programs like MSP procurement, Bhavantar, NAFED, and NCCF can protect farmers during the Kharif soybean harvest.
• Retail price impact: Because global CNF markets typically adjust and absorb around half the duty benefit, a 5% duty reduction would lower domestic retail prices by ₹3 to ₹4 per kg, while a 10% reduction would lower them by ₹5 to ₹6 per kg.
• Supply and price risks: Mixed domestic crop performance—with damage reported in Maharashtra and Karnataka despite good conditions in Madhya Pradesh—alongside El Niño and geopolitical disruptions in the Black Sea could push international prices higher ahead of the festive season.