1. Growth Vision 2030 - Revenue 2X, EBITDA 3X, PAT 5X, Net Debt/EBITDA <1X On track - At the Q1 FY26 PPT, management set Growth Vision 2030: Revenue 2X, EBITDA 3X, PAT 5X and Net Debt/EBITDA <1X, with the Q4 FY26 call reiterating INR4,000 crores EBITDA by 2030. FY26 closed at revenue Rs.8,189 crores, EBITDA Rs.1,081 crores and PAT Rs.198 crores, with debt of Rs.4,989 crores against EBITDA of Rs.1,119 crores - the 2030 targets remain far off.
2. FY27 carbon black and Aquapharm profitability - surpass FY25 base-case EBITDA and PAT On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management confirmed FY27 carbon black and Aquapharm profitability should surpass the FY25 base-case EBITDA and PAT. Q1 FY27 EBITDA of Rs.400 crores and PAT of Rs.155 crores both exceeded Q1 FY25's Rs.369 crores and Rs.118 crores.
3. Power business - structurally better pricing realization from Q1 onwards Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected structurally better pricing realization in the power business from Q1 onwards, aided by the West Asia fuel crisis. In Q1 FY27, power realization rose from INR3.66 to INR5.39 - a \~50% jump - with power EBIT up \~INR30 crores QoQ.
4. Coal tar distillation - details next quarter, capex signed off Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said feasibility studies for backward integration into coal tar distillation were underway, with more details next quarter and the capex investment signed off by then. By Q1 FY27 the business plan was still being checked, with approval on all capexes expected "by this quarter" and a firm plan "in the next couple of months".
5. Aquapharm top line growth - 20-25% in FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided Aquapharm top line growth in FY27 in the region of 20-25%. Q1 FY27 Aquapharm revenue of Rs.394 crores against Q1 FY26's Rs.382 crores is growth of \~3%, a slow start to the full-year window.
6. FY27 EBITDA per ton - 14-15% improvement over FY26 average (\~INR16,500-17,000/ton) On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said FY27 EBITDA per ton should see at least a 14-15% increase over the \~14,900/ton Q4 level, later framed as 14-15% over the FY26 average, i.e. \~INR16,500-17,000 per ton. Q1 FY27 EBITDA/ton came in at about INR22,900, above the guided level, with management reiterating the full-year guidance.
7. High single-digit volume growth in carbon black for FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided high single-digit volume growth in carbon black for FY27 with the additional capacity coming in, reiterated at the Q1 FY27 call. Q1 FY27 volume of 153,513 MT against Q1 FY26's 154,093 MT was a slight decline, leaving the full-year window open.
8. Dividend payout - 40-50% maintained going forward Partial - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said past payout had been maintained in the 40-45% to 50% range and "generally, we should be able to maintain that going forward". FY26 dividend of Rs.226 crores against PAT of Rs.198 crores is a \~114% payout, above the range, and a Rs.4.5 per share interim dividend followed in Q1 FY27.
9. FY27 CAPEX - Rs.300-400 odd crores, later sub Rs.400 crores Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided FY27 CAPEX at Rs.300-400 odd crores, later clarified as sub Rs.400 crores including maintenance, Nanovace, one acetylene black line and small Aquapharm CAPEX. At the Q1 FY27 call the outlook was \~INR300 crores "maybe plus-minus INR50-odd crores", with no FY27 capex figure yet disclosed in our record.
10. FY26 CAPEX - about Rs.550 odd crores Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided FY26 CAPEX at about Rs.550 odd crores, with Rs.400 crores spent so far. FY26 capex (net) came in at Rs.724 crores, exceeding the \~Rs.550 crore plan.
11. Aquapharm volume growth - at least 20% next year (FY27) On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided Aquapharm volume growth of "atleast a 20%" next year as a conservative estimate, later framed at the Q4 FY26 call as top line growth of 20-25% in FY27. Q1 FY27 volume of 22,985 MT against 25,993 MT in Q1 FY26 was a \~12% decline, a negative start to the full-year window.
12. Cost optimization - Rs.200 crores cumulative savings over next two years On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management targeted cumulative cost savings of Rs.200 crores over the next two years from a company-wide cost optimization drive, later framed at the Q4 FY26 call as over INR200-250 crores over the next 4-6 quarters. At Q4 FY26 the program was "progressing well", with no quantified savings figure yet disclosed in our record.
13. Full-year FY26 EBITDA per ton - better than Rs.16,000 Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said full-year FY26 EBITDA per ton "we should do better" than Rs.16,000, conditional on steady state and rational US tariff resolution. FY26 EBITDA/ton closed at Rs.14,939, below the Rs.16,000 target.
14. Aquapharm additional capacities - PBTC, green chelates, acetyl chloride, granulations, amines, imidazoline in Q2 FY26 Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management planned to commission additional Aquapharm capacities for PBTC, green chelates, acetyl chloride, granulations, amines and imidazoline in Q2 FY26, with the remaining capacity beyond the 11,500 tons commissioned due in 2-3 months. In Q2 FY26 the PBTC plant was commissioned, acetyl chloride de-bottlenecking completed and the full green chelates portfolio readied, and by Q4 FY26 capacity had expanded from 1,30,000 to 1,67,000 tons.
15. New Specialty Carbon Black line - next 12-15 months Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said a new Specialty Carbon Black line would be added in "Next 12-15 months' time", later specified as a 20,000 MTPA Mundra line preponed to March '26. By Q4 FY26 the line was ready and it was commissioned in Q1 FY27, taking specialty capacity to 132 KT within the 12-15 month window.
16. FY26 Carbon Black volume - about 650,000 tons, 9-10% increase Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 Carbon Black volume of "about 650,000 tons, which is about 9%-10% increase over our FY25 volumes". FY26 sales volume closed at 6,18,956 MT, short of the \~650,000 ton target by \~31,000 tons.
17. 1,000 MTPA superconductive Specialty Black - by end of FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected 1,000 MTPA of Specialty Black capacity dedicated to superconductive grades to be completed by end of FY26, later set at commissioning by end of October 2025 with commercial production from November 2025. Trial runs commenced in Q3 FY26 at Palej, the line was mechanically ready in Q4 FY26 but delayed by gas shortage, and it was operational by Q1 FY27.
18. 0.1 crore tons (1 million MT) Carbon Black capacity by FY28 On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management aimed to cross 0.1 crore tons (1 million MT) of Carbon Black capacity by FY28, a target reiterated through the Q1 FY27 PPT. Installed capacity stood at 880,000 tons in Q4 FY26 and 900 KTPA in Q1 FY27, leaving another 100,000 tons to add before FY28.
19. Acetylene Black - 5,000 MTPA by FY27 at Mundra On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management planned an initial Acetylene Black capacity of 5000 MTPA by FY27 at Mundra, later revised to a 4,000 MTPA plant commissioned over the next 18 months and by end of FY27. Technology transfer was completed and detailed engineering started in Q1 FY26, work on the 4,000 MTPA plant was initiated by Q3 FY26, with no commissioning yet.
20. PAT growth visible from Q1 FY26 Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected PAT growth to become visible year-on-year "from next year itself", from the June quarter onwards, on the lower base set by interest and amortization. Q1 FY26 PAT of Rs.94.10 crores against Q1 FY25's Rs.118 crores was a \~20% decline - PAT growth was not visible.
21. Debt-to-EBITDA - 3.3-3.4 by FY25 end, below 3 a year from now Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided debt-to-EBITDA "by this year end, we should be somewhere around 3.3-3.4" and "a year from now, we should be below 3 for sure". FY26 net borrowings of Rs.4,536 crores against EBITDA of Rs.1,081 crores put the ratio at \~4.2x, and debt of Rs.4,989 crores against EBITDA of Rs.1,119 crores is \~4.5x as of 01 Sep 2026 - the below-3 target was not achieved.
22. Carbon Black quarterly sales volume - 160-170 KT by Q4 FY26 Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected Carbon Black quarterly sales volume of 160-170 KT "maybe by fourth quarter of next year", contingent on the TN lines coming up. Q4 FY26 sales volume of 1,61,865 MT fell within the 160-170 KT range.
23. Aquapharm top line growth - 17-18% from FY26 onwards, 20% EBITDA margin from FY26 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided Aquapharm top line growth of around 17-18% from FY26 onwards and around 20% EBITDA margin from FY26, gradually improving towards 25% by FY29. FY26 Aquapharm revenue of Rs.1,443 crores against FY25's Rs.1,420 crores was \~1.6% growth, with EBITDA margin \~11.2% - both far below the guided levels.
24. Specialty carbon black - double in next four to five years, \~10,000 tonnes added every year On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said specialty carbon black would almost double in the next four to five years with about 10,000 tonnes of volume addition every year, closing the year around 60,000-65,000 MT. FY25 specialty volume was 62,450 MT and FY26 69,635 MT, with Q1 FY27 at 19,748 MT up 23% YoY - consistent with the \~10,000 tons/year trajectory toward the \~120,000+ ton doubling target.
25. Performance chemicals share - 25-35% of Carbon Black volume Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected performance chemicals share of Carbon Black volume to fluctuate between 25% and 35% depending on industry dynamics. Across the nine reported quarters from Q1 FY25 to Q1 FY27 the share ranged from \~28% to \~33%, consistently within the 25-35% band.
26. Battery chemicals EBITDA potential - INR1,000-1,200 crores by 2029 On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided battery chemicals EBITDA potential of \~INR1,000-1,200 crores by 2029, within a combined three-segment EBITDA of roughly INR4,200-4,300 crores by FY29, with commercial volumes later set to start rising in FY28. In Q1 FY27 the Nanovace pilot plant was up with lab-scale and initial customer testing very positive, and no commercial plant or battery chemicals revenue yet.
27. Backward integration - yellow phosphorus processing facility in Middle East Pending - At the Q1 FY25 call, management planned to set up a yellow phosphorus processing facility in the Middle East to save costs, exploring alternate sourcing geographies beyond Kazakhstan, later clarified as a processing/filtering plant sourcing from tied-up miners rather than mining. No completed Middle East facility has been disclosed in our record.
28. Cash flow - Rs.9,800-10,000 crores over next 5 years, sufficient to fund capex and repay entire debt On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected cash flow of roughly INR9,800-10,000 crores over the next 5 years, sufficient to fund capex and repay the entire debt, later framed at Rs.9,500-10,000 crores. FY25 operating cash flow was Rs.760 crores and FY26 Rs.1,576 crores - cumulative \~Rs.2,336 crores - with debt reduced by Rs.454 crores in FY26.
29. Total capex - \~INR3,400 crores over next 5 years On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management quantified total capex of \~INR3,400 crores over the next 5 years, later framed at the Q4 FY25 call as a pipeline of around Rs.3,500 crores at a \~Rs.700 crore/year run rate. FY25 net capex was Rs.764 crores and FY26 Rs.724 crores - cumulative \~Rs.1,488 crores in the first two years, broadly consistent with the plan.
30. Aquapharm volume growth - 20-25% from FY26 onwards Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management set an Aquapharm volume growth target of 20%-25% from FY26 onwards, later softened to 17-18% top line growth from FY26 and "atleast a 20%" volume growth in FY27. FY26 Aquapharm sales volume of 94,445 MT against FY25's 95,806 MT was a decline, and Q1 FY27 volume of 22,985 MT also fell YoY.
31. Aquapharm FY25 volume guidance - 100,000-110,000 tons Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided Aquapharm FY25 volume of \~100,000-110,000 tons, with utilization gradually increasing towards the third and fourth quarters. By Q3 FY25 the 15-20% growth number was not reaffirmed, and FY25 volume closed at 95,806 MT, short of the guided range.
32. Aquapharm capacity doubling - another 100,000 tons in next 4-4.5 years On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management said another 100,000 tons would be added during the next 4-4.5 years, doubling Aquapharm capacity in five years, with Rs.600-700 crores of CAPEX planned over three to five years between India and USA. Capacity expanded from 1,30,000 to 1,67,000 tons during FY26, leaving \~93,000 tons to reach the \~260,000-ton doubling target.
33. Aquapharm 38,000 tons capacity - in next 6-8 months, by February or March latest Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management said Aquapharm's 38,000 tons capacity would come up in next 6-8 months, "by February or March latest", with commissioning subsequently set for March 2025. The 38,000 MTPA expansion was commissioned in late April 2025 - "2-3 days back" as of the Q4 FY25 call - after the local "Consent to Operate" clearance took longer than expected.
34. Carbon Black EBITDA per ton - increase by INR4,500-5,000 over next five years On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected EBITDA per ton to increase by INR4,500-5,000 over the next five years, reiterated at the Q4 FY25 call as Rs.25,000/MT from a 4-5 year perspective and at the Q3 FY26 call as Rs.24,000-25,000/ton. FY26 EBITDA/ton fell to Rs.14,939 from FY25's Rs.19,930, but Q1 FY27 recovered to about INR22,900 - progress toward the target.
35. Intangibles amortization - Rs.500-600 crore tax savings going forward On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said intangibles amortization over 20-25 years had potential for some Rs.500-600 crore of tax savings going forward. At the Q4 FY25 call, a tax shield of almost Rs.500 crores was confirmed, making the India business profit exempt from tax for the next 7-8 years, with quarterly amortization run rate of Rs.23 crores.
36. Promoter warrants - Rs.448 crore to deleverage balance sheet Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management announced 1.6 crore warrants at Rs.280/share aggregating up to Rs.448 crore to the promoter group, to deleverage the balance sheet. Conversion of the full 1.6 crore warrants into equity shares totaling ₹448 crore - ₹112 crores upfront and ₹336 crores in Q3 FY26 - was completed during Q3 FY26.
37. Nanovace JV - USD 28 million infusion over 1.5-2 years, pilot plant in current year On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said PCBL would infuse the INR equivalent of USD 28 million in the Nanovace JV over one and a half to two years and start work on the pilot plant during the current year, later revised to a $44 million staged infusion with the pilot repeatedly pushed to a March 2026 target. In Q1 FY27 the pilot plant at Palej was up with Consent to Operate for R&D received, lab-scale and initial customer testing very positive, and the first batch committed "in the next few weeks".
38. Debt - may not go down in next one year, ratios to improve Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said debt may not go down in the next one year, though ratios would improve. Debt in fact fell - over Rs.300 crores reduced by Q2 FY26 since March 2025 and net borrowings down INR454 crores to INR4,536 crores during FY26 - better than the "may not go down" guidance.
39. Aquapharm EBITDA - Rs.250-300 crore full-year addition Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said Aquapharm was expected to add another Rs.250-300 crore EBITDA on a full-year basis, later reframed as a quarterly run-rate of at least INR80-90 crores by Q4 FY26 and an FY26 EBITDA of INR300 crores, with the guidance "slightly delayed" by Q3 FY26. FY25 Aquapharm EBITDA was Rs.193 crores and FY26 Rs.162 crores, with Q4 FY26 at just Rs.29 crores - neither the full-year addition nor the exit run-rate was achieved.
40. Aquapharm India capacity utilization - 80-90% in FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said Aquapharm India capacity utilization was \~55% in FY24 and was hopeful of going beyond 80%, maybe closer to 90%, this year, later tracking to \~82-83% by Q4 FY25 on a combined India + USA basis. FY25 utilization closed at 70%+, and by Q4 FY26 Aquapharm faced significantly lower utilization and negative operating leverage - the 80-90% target was not achieved.
41. Chemical business brownfield and US expansion - Rs.100-odd crore India, Rs.180-odd crore US over FY25-FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided a small brownfield in India (\~Rs.100-odd crore) this year and next, and US expansion in two phases of about Rs.180-odd crore over the current year and next. Multiple Aquapharm additions were commissioned within the window - 11,500 MTPA polymer capacity at Mahad in Q1 FY26, the PBTC plant and acetyl chloride de-bottlenecking in Q2 FY26, and capacity expansion from 1,30,000 to 1,67,000 tons during FY26 - though no specific India vs US capex split was disclosed.
42. Brownfield expansion capex - Rs.500-550 crore over FY25-FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided a brownfield expansion of 110,000 t (90,000 t Tamil Nadu + 20,000 t Mundra specialty) with capital outlay around Rs.500-550 crore to be spent during the current year and next. FY25 net capex was Rs.764 crores and FY26 Rs.724 crores, and the 110,000 t capacity was commissioned within the window.
43. New greenfield expansion - beyond 0.1 crore tonne capacity in near future On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said a new Greenfield expansion was under evaluation to take capacity beyond 0.1 crore tonne, construction to start by the beginning of next year at Tamil Nadu size (\~150,000 t) with outlay roughly Rs.900-1,000 crore, later fixed as a 150,000 MTPA first phase at Naidupeta costing INR950-960 crores. By Q1 FY27, 116 acres at Naidupeta had been allotted, environmental clearance applied for, and licenses being put in place, with no construction start yet.
44. Tamil Nadu brownfield 90,000 t - Phase 1 (30,000 t) by end FY25, Phase 2 (60,000 t) by Q3-Q4 FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided the 90 KT Tamil Nadu brownfield in two phases - Phase 1 of 30,000 t by end of the year or Q1 next, Phase 2 of 60,000 t around Q3 or Q4 of next year - with Phase 2 later set for FY26 end. The 30,000-ton line was completed in Q3 FY25 and the 60,000 MTPA expansion commissioned in Q3 FY26, with the full 90,000-ton brownfield operational by Q4 FY26, taking installed capacity to 880,000 tons.
45. Mundra second specialty line - 20,000 t commissioned in FY25, total capacity 790,000 t Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said the second specialty line of 20,000 tonnes at Mundra would be commissioned during FY25, taking total manufacturing capacity to 790,000 tonnes, completing the 40 KTPA two-phase expansion first planned at the Q1 FY23 PPT with capex estimated ₹320 Cr. The 20,000 MTPA line was commissioned in Q3 FY25, taking total capacity to 7,90,000 MTPA and specialty black capacity to 112,000 MTPA.
46. Tamil Nadu plant - full capacity by Q3-Q4 FY25 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected the Tamil Nadu plant to reach full capacity by Q3-Q4 of FY25, from 60% utilization in Q4 FY24, consistent with the Q1 FY23 plan of full utilization within 4-6 quarters of commissioning. PCBL(TN) reached full capacity utilization within 12 months of commissioning, disclosed in Q1 FY25 with 85%+ utilization during the quarter, and FY25 was its first full year of operation.