1. AUM / loan book of \~₹5,000 cr by end of FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management (Sanjeev Kumar) targeted an AUM / loan book size of around ₹5,000 cr by the end of this financial year. Loan assets were ₹2,946 cr at Q1 FY27, well below the ₹5,000 cr target with three quarters remaining.
2. Green and sustainable investments significantly increased by FY 2030 On track - In the FY26 Annual Report, PFS aims to significantly increase its green and sustainable investments segment, then 31% of portfolio, by FY 2030. Sector-wise outstanding at FY26 shows Renewable 16% and Sustainable Infra 3%, and the report itself states PFS is on track.
3. No fresh slippages from last 8 years' disbursements - ever again On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, Sanjeev Kumar said "There is no fresh slippage in our, say, last 8 years disbursement. It will not happen in future also". No fresh slippages were recorded in Q1 FY27, and all accounts disbursed since FY18 remain standard.
4. AUM growth of 30%-50% year-on-year Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call (May 2026), management (Sanjeev Kumar) said "you'll see at least, say, 30% to 50% growth year-on-year" in AUM, implying a FY27 horizon running to March 2027. AUM was ₹3,292 cr at FY26 but declined to ₹2,946 cr by 30 June 2026; the full-year outcome is unreached as of September 2026.
5. Bond market entry in the early part of FY27 Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management planned to make inroads into the bond market, in smaller quantum, in the early part of next year, FY27. No bond market issuance is recorded through Q1 FY27, and the company had no sanctions for new borrowings as of that quarter.
6. State utility lending to 1/3 of book in the medium term (FY27) On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management stated state utility lending is targeted to come to 1/3 of the book in the medium term, i.e., FY27, reiterated in the Q4 FY26 PPT. State utility exposure was 59% of AUM in Q4 FY26; the distribution share of 32% in Q1 FY27 is close to the target.
7. Rating upgrade once book crosses ₹5,000-5,500 cr, after FY26 results Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected a rating upgrade "once our book crosses ₹5,000 crores, ₹5,500 crores", with timeline "more or less towards the -- once our annual results are over". Book was ₹3,292 cr at FY26; CRISIL reaffirmed A (Negative) in April 2026 and no upgrade occurred.
8. No lending to MFIs Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management stated "We will not lend to any MFIs… It's not a focus area for us. We will not do that". No MFI lending is recorded in the notes through Q1 FY27.
9. NBFC lending not to cross 6-7% of portfolio Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said NBFC lending "would not cross 6%, 7% of our portfolio even in the medium term". One NBFC lending case was disbursed in Q2 FY26, and no NBFC exposure percentage is disclosed in the record to verify against the cap.
10. Credit cost not more than 60-70 bps annualized Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided credit cost "we do not envisage it being more than some 60, 70 basis points on an annualized basis going forward". Provision reversals occurred in Q3 FY25 (₹11.33 cr) and Q1 FY26; no credit cost ratio is disclosed to verify against the target.
11. Long-term gross NPA 3%, net NPA close to 1% On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management set a long-term target of overall gross NPA of 3% and net NPA of close to 1%. Gross NPA was 5.77% at FY26 and net NPA 1.49% - net NPA is close to target while gross NPA remains above 3% with Danu resolution pending.
12. Prepayments and repayments of ₹1,000-1,500 cr by end of FY26 Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected prepayments and repayments of "something around ₹1,000-1,500 crores" by end of FY26, to be covered by fresh disbursements. FY26 repayments totaled ₹1,441 cr, of which prepayments were ₹1,105 cr - within the guided range.
13. Equity raise of ₹300-500 cr at a significant premium Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management contemplated a potential equity raise of ₹300-500 cr "at a significant premium to the current market price". Q1 FY26 set timing as "as and when the time is right", Q2 FY26 said "most probably yes" this year, Q3 FY26 pushed it to early FY27; no raise is recorded through Q1 FY27.
14. 7%-9% sequential AUM growth every quarter Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected \~7% to 9% quarter-on-quarter AUM growth every quarter from a base of ₹4,746 cr at March 2025, over "around 8 to 10 quarters", reiterated in Q1 FY26 - "We still hold on to that guidance". AUM fell to ₹4,313 cr at Q1 FY26, ₹3,292 cr at FY26 and ₹2,946 cr at Q1 FY27, with management acknowledging unmet AUM commitments.
15. ₹500 cr borrowing line from one financial institution (in-principle approval) Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management announced in-principle approval of ₹500 cr from one financial institution. IIFCL sanctioned ₹500 cr, not yet drawn down as of Q4 FY25; the line remained undrawn through Q1 FY26 with no drawdown recorded through Q1 FY27.
16. CFO appointment - RBI approval in 2-3 weeks, joining by end of March/early April Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected RBI approval for the CFO appointment in the next 2-3 weeks, with the CFO joining by end of March or early April. Dilip Srivastava joined as Director Finance and CFO on March 28, 2025 - within the stated timeframe.
17. Cost-to-income not more than 15% Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management committed to keep cost-to-income at not more than 15% as the book grows, from around 17% then. Cost-to-income was 13.93% in FY25, 16.84% in FY26 and 19.89% in Q1 FY27, breaching the ceiling in FY26 and Q1 FY27.
18. Interest spread in the 2%-2.5% range Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management targeted interest spread in the range of 2%-2.5%, versus 1.85% current; Q4 FY25 guided spreads to 1.75%-2% "for the next few quarters" and Q3 FY26 reset the target to 150 bps. Spread was 1.92% in FY25, 0.92% in Q4 FY26 and 0.88% in Q1 FY27.
19. FY26 disbursements of ₹3,500-4,000 cr Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management targeted disbursements of \~₹800 cr to ₹1,000 cr per quarter on average, implying ₹3,500-4,000 cr for FY26; the ₹4,000 cr target was reiterated in Q1 FY26, revised to ₹2,500-3,000 cr in Q2 FY26 and ₹2,500 cr restated in Q3 FY26. FY26 disbursements were ₹1,235 cr - less than half the revised target.
20. FY25 loan book growth of \~15% Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected around 15% growth in the loan book for FY25. FY25 loan book was ₹4,746 cr versus ₹5,395 cr at FY24 - a decline of \~12%; management acknowledged "instead of the growth, we are at a decline".
21. Gross NPA reduction of minimum 50%, ideally 75%, by end of March 2025 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management targeted bringing down gross NPA of ₹764 cr (as of September) by at minimum 50%, ideally 75%, by end of March - to at least ₹380 cr, close to \~₹190 cr if things go as envisaged. Gross Stage 3 was ₹711 cr at FY25, a reduction of only \~7%; the ₹190 cr level was reached only by FY26.
22. Net Stage 3 below 2% by end of March 2025 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management intended to end FY25 with net Stage 3 of less than 2%, versus current 5.38%. Net Stage 3 was 6.02% at December 2024 and 6.56% at Q4 FY25; it reached 1.32% only by Q2 FY26.
23. No fresh disbursement exceeding 5% of AUM Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management committed that no fresh disbursement will exceed 5% of AUM at any point of time, going forward. Average ticket size was \~₹35 cr in Q1 FY26 against AUM of \~₹4,313 cr, and ₹88 cr in FY26 against AUM of ₹3,292 cr - about 2.7%; no breach is recorded.
24. Rating downgrade reversal within the next few quarters Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management (R. Balaji) expected reversal of the credit rating downgrade in "the next few quarters". ICRA revised outlook from negative to stable in March 2025 and CRISIL to stable in September 2025, but the rating levels (CRISIL A, ICRA A-) were not upgraded - CRISIL reaffirmed A (Negative) in April 2026.
25. FY25 disbursements of ₹1,000-2,000 cr minimum Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided an FY25 disbursement target "in the range of ₹1,000 crores-₹2,000 crores minimum". FY25 disbursements were ₹916 cr, below the ₹1,000 cr floor.
26. Debt-to-equity rising above 3 in time to come Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management targeted debt-to-equity to rise above 3 "in time to come" as disbursements pick up; in Q2 FY25 this became 3.5% to 4% by FY27 - "that would be our intent going forward". Debt-to-equity was 1.54x at FY24, 1.03x at FY25, 0.57x at FY26 and 0.49x at Q1 FY27.
27. Vento Power resolution most probably in FY24 Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management (Abhinav Goyal) expected resolution of the Vento Power Infra account "most probably in this financial year only". Subsequent timelines slipped - bidder by end March 2025, "next few weeks" at Q4 FY25, exit from NPA in September at Q1 FY26 - before the ₹115.6 cr transaction with Enviro Infra Engineers fully concluded in Q2 FY26.
28. Credit cost contained, moving to \~1-2% NPAs Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided no further increase in credit cost going forward, aiming to reduce it and move to \~1-2% NPAs. Gross NPA declined from 9.68% at FY23 to 5.77% at FY26, net NPA reached 1.32% at Q2 FY26 and 1.49% at FY26, with provision reversals in some quarters.
29. Book size to ₹25,000-30,000 cr by 2027 Pending - At the Q2 FY24 call, management (Kalur Srinivas) targeted growing the book from \~₹7,500 cr to ₹25,000-30,000 cr "in next three or four years" / "by 2027", reiterated in Q3 FY24. The horizon runs to end-FY27 and has not lapsed, so no verdict is due yet; the book has instead shrunk - ₹5,395 cr at FY24, ₹4,746 cr at FY25, ₹3,292 cr at FY26, ₹2,946 cr at Q1 FY27.
30. Danu Wind resolution by end of Q1 FY24 Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected Danu Wind Park (₹282 cr exposure) to be resolved by the end of that quarter, Q1 FY24. Timelines then moved to June at Q3 FY25, H2 FY26 at Q4 FY25 and "could spill over to the next year" at Q3 FY26; Danu remained the sole NPA account at Q1 FY27 - ₹187 cr of ₹190 cr gross Stage III - awaiting NCLT admission.
31. Steady-state ROA of 1.5-2% Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management targeted ROA of around 1.5 to 2 on a steady-state basis, versus current 2.1; later revisions moved the goalposts to 2.5%, 2.5%-2.75% and "closer to 2.75% to 3%". ROA was 2.27% in FY24, 3.56% in FY25, 6.00% in FY26 and 3.31% annualized in Q1 FY27.
32. Fundraising of ₹1,500-2,000 cr in the next 1-3 months Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management was in discussion with lenders for ₹1,500-2,000 cr of fundraising, the "prime target as of now". Q2 FY24 spoke of advanced talks and "about to succeed" in raising \~₹2,000-2,500 cr, Q3 FY24 of coming "very closer"; only ₹100 cr was sanctioned from Indian Overseas Bank in March 2024.
33. Stress asset resolutions in FY24 - Meenakshi, Vento Power, IL&FS Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected Meenakshi, Vento Power (change of promoter) and the IL&FS loan account to be resolved during FY24. Meenakshi Energy resolved via NCLT IBC in Q2 FY24 and IL&FS Tamil Nadu Power was restructured with all lenders agreeing in Q2 FY24; Vento stayed in Stage 3 at FY24 and was resolved only in Q2 FY26.
34. Yield \~11% and spread 2.5-2.75 for FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, the CFO guided yield at \~11% for FY24 and spread at 2.5 to 2.75. FY24 yield on the earning portfolio was 11.38% and interest spread 2.68% - both within or above the guided ranges.
35. NIM maintained around 4% Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected NIM to be maintained in the range of around 4%, with Q2 FY25 guidance of upwards of 4% and a Q3 FY26 reset to stabilize at 3.5% to 4%. NIM was 4.82% in FY24, 4.25% in FY25, 4.49% in FY26 and 4.46% in Q1 FY27, dipping to 3.80% in Q3 FY26 before recovering.
36. Dividend - reasonable, reaching market expectation Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, the MD promised "you will not get discouraged and disappointed in future... definitely reasonable... try to reach the market expectation", after Q3 FY23 put dividend "very much on the top of the agenda". A first dividend of 10% (₹1/share) was declared for FY23; no dividend was declared for FY24, FY25 or FY26, with review deferred "in the next quarter".
37. $50 million IIFC-UK loan drawdown in the next few weeks Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management proposed to raise a $50 million loan from IIFCL-UK, and at Q1 FY24 expected to draw the funds "in the next few weeks" while documentation was under process. The sanction was received but no drawdown is recorded; by Q3 FY25 management noted foreign funding explored in 2020 and 2022 "did not materialize".
38. FY24 book size of \~₹9,000 cr Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management targeted a book size of about ₹9,000 cr for FY24, with net prepayments/repayments of about ₹2,300 cr, "quite hopeful" of achieving it by end of the year at Q1 FY24 and reiterating confidence at Q3 FY24; Q2 FY24 had already cut the floor to ₹7,500-8,000 cr. FY24 loan book was ₹5,395 cr.
39. FY24 sanctions of ₹6,000 cr and disbursements of ₹5,000-5,500 cr Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, the approved FY24 budget was for sanctions of around ₹6,000 cr and disbursements of around ₹5,500 cr, restated as ₹6,000 cr sanctions and ₹5,000 cr disbursements at Q4 FY23. FY24 sanctions were ₹525 cr and disbursements ₹585 cr.
40. FY23 sanctions of ₹2,500 cr and disbursements of ₹2,200-2,300 cr Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management targeted FY23 sanctions of ₹2,500 cr and disbursements of roughly ₹2,200-2,300 cr in the remaining "next 1-1/2 months"; the MD called it "tough and tight" but said "We will try to meet that challenge". FY23 sanctions were ₹3,854 cr and disbursements ₹2,253 cr - sanctions exceeded the target and disbursements landed in range.
41. Loan book to \~₹8,600 cr by March 2023 Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management (Sitesh Sinha) said the loan book, at ₹7,500 cr as of September, will be "around ₹8,600 cr at the end of the March", covered by December and crossed by March 2023. The book was ₹7,301 cr at end-December 2022 and ₹7,339 cr at FY23.
42. Zero thermal company by end of Q4 FY23 or next year Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management (Dr. Pawan Singh) said stress thermal assets have a resolution plan and "hopefully by end of fourth quarter or the next year we hope to become a zero thermal company", with the MD repeating the intention at Q4 FY23 from 6% exposure. Thermal exposure was 6% at FY23, 6% at Q1 FY25, 5% at FY26 and 13% at Q1 FY27.
43. Rating outlook restored to stable by end of January Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management (Abhinav Goyal) said they are trying to restore the rating outlook to stable "probably by end of January", and thereafter take the rating up for further upgradation. By Q3 FY23 ICRA had removed the negative development and reaffirmed A+; full stabilization took far longer - ICRA revised outlook to stable in March 2025 and CRISIL in September 2025.
44. NSL recovery better than the ₹90 cr offer in hand Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management (Pawan Singh) said on NSL, with the Supreme Court order and an existing offer of ₹90 cr in hand, "we hope to do better than what we have got at hand". NSL Nagapatnam was fully provided for at ₹125 cr, and in Q1 FY26 the NCLT verdict brought recovery of the entire ₹125 cr from the winning bidder, with potential for more from the erstwhile promoter's securities.
45. NRSS dissolution removing \~₹125 cr from net NPA and \~₹206 cr from gross NPA Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management (Pawan Singh) said NRSS dissolution in Q4 would remove \~₹125 cr from net NPA and \~₹206 cr total outstanding from gross NPA, making net NPA "almost half of what it is today". Out of ₹206 cr principal, ₹127 cr was realized with total resolution amount ₹134 cr, reflected in Q4 results; NRSS XXXVI was confirmed resolved in March 2022, taken over by Tata Projects.
46. No extraordinary provision from the forensic audit Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management (Sanjay Rustagi) said "we are not expecting something extraordinary provision which will come" from the forensic audit findings, with Pawan Singh adding the CFO's view that "there will be no major impact". FY23 provisions and contingencies were ₹80.69 cr and FY24 ₹87.57 cr, and the audit closed with no disclosed major incremental provision.
47. Net NPA down to a little over 1% in the next year Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management (Pawan Singh) guided that net NPA would come down to "a little over 1% in the next year"; Q2 FY25 guidance was net NPA below 2% for FY25 and Q2 FY26 set a long-term net NPA target close to 1%. Net NPA was 4.38% at FY23, 2.63% at FY24, and reached 1.32% only by Q2 FY26, standing at 1.49% at FY26.
48. Thermal sector exposure not more than 5% in FY 2020-21 Missed - In the FY20 Annual Report, PFS expected thermal sector exposure to be not more than 5% in FY 2020-21, versus 11% as at 31st March 2020. Thermal exposure was 11% at Q3 FY21 and 12% at Q1 FY22, reaching 6% only at FY23 - the 5% target was not achieved in FY21.