• Credit growth: Advances are growing around 14 to 15%, and management considers a 78 to 80% credit-deposit ratio comfortable given deposit growth and the investment book.
• NIM outlook: Domestic NIM rose to 2.74% from 2.64% in the June quarter; the bank expects to meet its 2.6 to 2.8% global NIM guidance. With 56% of the book linked to EBLR and around 8% to TBLR, a 25 basis points repo-rate increase is expected to improve NIM by around 7 basis points.
• Asset quality: Management warned of possible pressure from El Niño, rate hikes and pending agricultural renewals, and is monitoring borrowers from SMA-0 onward. Total SMA-0, 1 and 2 is 2.49%, below the 4% tolerance level; provision coverage is 97.32% and credit cost is 0.25%.
• Other income: Core operating profit grew 29% this quarter, while fee-based income grew more than 19%. Treasury profit fell to ₹700 crore from ₹1,700 crore amid hardening yields and MTM losses, and TWO recoveries declined to around ₹800 crore from around ₹900 crore.
• ECL provisions: Estimated loan-side ECL is around ₹8,000 crore, down from the earlier estimate of 9 to ₹9,500 crore; more than ₹2,500 crore is already held as floating provision, with an additional ₹1,100 crore set aside in standard accounts.