1. Plastics turnaround by Q3/Q4 FY25 Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided a plastics vertical turnaround expected in the third or fourth quarter of FY25, later restated as complete turnaround in FY26. FY25 plastics EBITDA was positive at about ₹90 lakhs, and Q1 FY27 delivered \~₹15 lakhs net profit, a year after the original deadline.
2. QIP fundraising up to ₹250 crore Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, the Board approved raising funds up to ₹250 crores via QIP. POCL raised ₹175 crores through QIP in FY25, within the approved ceiling.
3. Mundra project start by December 2026 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said Mundra work was intended to start by December 2026 in various phases; timelines later moved to Q1 FY27, then FY27, then H2 CY2027. As of Q1 FY27, no Mundra development had commenced and the 123-acre land remained undeveloped.
4. Value-added products 60%+ of revenue by 2030 On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, Vision 2030 targeted driving 60%+ revenue from value-added products, later guided at 70% by FY26 end, then 60%+ aspiring to \~70%. FY26 value-added products were 65% of lead segment revenue and Q1 FY27 reached 85%.
5. Vision 2030 - 20%+ revenue CAGR, 15%+ volume growth, 8%+ EBITDA margin, 20%+ ROCE On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, Vision 2030 set over 15% volume growth, 20%+ revenue CAGR and profitability growth, EBITDA margin exceeding 8% and ROCE above 20%. FY26 delivered 24% revenue CAGR, 11% volume growth, 7.4% EBITDA margin and 17% ROCE, with the 2030 horizon still open.
6. FY27 lead EBITDA per ton ₹17,000-19,000 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management maintained lead EBITDA/ton guidance of ₹17,000-19,000 for FY27, raised at Q1 FY27 to ₹18,000-20,000 per metric ton. Q1 FY27 lead EBITDA per ton was ₹21,595, above the guided range on a one-off 85% value-added mix.
7. FY27 copper EBITDA per ton above ₹40,000 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management raised copper EBITDA per ton guidance to "in excess of 40,000" for FY27. Q1 FY27 copper EBITDA per ton was ₹48,488, exceeding the guided floor.
8. FY27 copper volumes \~12,000 tons On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 total copper volumes of approximately 12,000 tons, matching the Q3 FY26 target of minimum 12,000 metric tons. Q1 FY27 copper sales were 4,001 MT, consistent with the annual target.
9. FY27 lead volumes 125,000-130,000 tons On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 lead volume of 125,000-130,000 tons. Q1 FY27 lead sales were 15,930 MT, below the required run-rate after supply chain disruption, but management reaffirmed confidence of closing up to the committed numbers.
10. FY27 capex \~₹180 crore On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided additional capex of \~₹180 crores in FY27, refined at Q1 FY27 to approximately ₹175 crores. Q1 FY27 capex was ₹5 crore with ₹25 crore already spent on the copper cathode project.
11. Copper cathode plant 36,000 MTPA, Phase 1 by December 2026 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management targeted Phase 1 (18,000 tpa) of the new 36,000 tpa copper cathode plant at TKD for commissioning by December 2026. As of Q1 FY27, around ₹25 crore was incurred, equipment orders finalized and construction underway, with trial runs expected in Q4 FY27.
12. Copper capacity 12,000 MTPA by end of FY26 Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided copper capacity expansion from 6,000 to 12,000 tons with additional capacity live by FY27, later set at end of Jan 2026. Copper recycling capacity doubled to 12,000 MTPA in Q4 FY26.
13. FY27 copper revenue ₹650-700 crore On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY27 copper revenue of ₹650-700 crores. Q1 FY27 copper revenue was not separately disclosed; FY26 copper revenue was ₹673 crore, already near the lower end of the target.
14. FY26 copper volumes 4,000-5,000 tons Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided copper volumes of about 4,000-5,000 tons in FY26. FY26 copper sales were 6,543 MT, above the upper end of the range.
15. FY26 plastics revenue ₹50-55 crore Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided plastics FY26 revenue of about ₹50-55 crores. FY26 plastics revenue was ₹32.12 crore, below the guided range.
16. FY26 copper revenue \~₹300 crore Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided copper FY26 top line of approximately ₹300 crores, revised at Q2 FY26 to close to ₹400 crores. FY26 copper revenue was ₹673 crore, exceeding both targets.
17. FY26 EBITDA margin 6%, revised to 7%+ Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management endorsed 6% blended EBITDA margin for FY26 as "very reasonable", then confirmed 7% at Q1 FY26 and 8% and higher at Q2 FY26. FY26 EBITDA margin was 7.4%, meeting the 7%+ target but not 8% on a full-year basis.
18. FY26 revenue growth 30-35% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 revenue growth of about 30-35%, described as a minimum. FY26 revenue grew 43.83%, above the upper end.
19. FY26 lead volumes 110,000-115,000 tons Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management set a FY26 lead sales volume target of 110,000 to 115,000 tons, later confirmed at 1.2 lakh tons. FY26 lead sales were 100,727 MT, below target despite management noting "we achieved almost close to that".
20. FY25 lead volumes 85,000-90,000 MT Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided FY25 production/sales of around 85,000 to 90,000 MT, with Q3 FY25 seeing volumes crossing 90,000 levels. FY25 lead production was 94,115 MT and sales 90,565 MT, above the original range.
21. Tamil Nadu MoU - ₹300-500 crore investment over 5 years On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management announced an MoU with the Government of Tamil Nadu to invest ₹300 crores to ₹500 crores over the next five years in recycling/manufacturing projects. By Q1 FY27, the Thervoykandigai lead expansion (₹70 crore Phase 1 + ₹20 crore Phase 2) and ₹200 crore copper cathode project were underway, with the window open to Q3 FY29.
22. Thervoykandigai Phase 2 by H2 FY26 Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided Phase 2 lead expansion (36,000 MTPA) to commission by half year ending FY26, reaffirmed at Q4 FY25. Phase 2 was commissioned and became operational in December 2025, within H2 FY26.
23. Thervoykandigai Phase 1 commissioned by September 2024 Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management stated the Thervoykandigai lead expansion would have installation commencing June 2024 and be commissioned by September 2024, later moved to Q3 FY25, then production from Q4 FY25. Commercial production commenced in Q1 FY26, April 2025, about two quarters late.
24. Lead capacity doubling to \~200,000 tonnes in 2 years Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management targeted doubling lead smelting and refining capacities to close to about 200,000 tonnes in the next two years; expansion to 204,000 MTPA was phased thereafter. Phase 1 (36,000 MTPA) was commissioned in Q1 FY26 and Phase 2 in December 2025, taking capacity to 204,000 MTPA in FY26.
25. FY26 revenue in excess of ₹2,700 crore Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management targeted FY26 top line in excess of ₹2,700 crores. FY26 revenue was ₹2,958 crore, exceeding the target.
26. FY25 revenue ₹1,800-2,000 crore Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management targeted FY25 top line of around ₹1,800 crores to ₹2,000 crores, with the CFO at ₹1,700-1,800 crores and the MD calling ₹1,800 crore conservative. FY25 revenue was ₹2,057 crore, above the upper end.
27. Harsha Exito go-live within 2-3 quarters of Q4 FY23 Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said going live with the Harsha Exito product portfolio requires two to three quarters, later pushed to machinery installation by end of FY24 and revenue from FY25. No separate Harsha Exito product portfolio revenue was disclosed; the site was repurposed for the Thervoykandigai lead expansion.
28. Non-lead contribution 30% in FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management targeted non-lead (aluminum, plastics, copper) contribution to go from 10% to 30% in the next financial year with overall turnover of about ₹2,000 crores. FY25 non-lead revenue was approximately 4.3% of the ₹2,057 crore total, lead alone at ₹1,942 crore - the turnover goal was met, the mix was not.
29. Capacity utilization 75% in FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management wanted to increase capacity utilization to 75% in FY24. Quarterly utilization was around 60% in Q1 FY24, 70-75% in Q2 and 60-65% in Q3, with the full year at approximately 65%.
30. FY24 capex ₹10-15 crore Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management projected capex of about ₹10 crores to ₹15 crores for FY24. FY24 capex was approximately ₹15 crore, with CWIP of ₹83 million shown in the Q4 FY24 PPT.
31. 20% revenue CAGR over 3-4 years from FY23 base On track - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided, taking FY23 as base, "somewhere around 20%" CAGR over the next three or four years. FY24 grew 4.49%, FY25 33.36% and FY26 43.83%, with the window still open.
32. FY24 EBITDA margin 6.5% to 7% Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management reiterated a target of 150 bps EBITDA margin improvement YoY, implying 6.5% to 7% EBITDA margins in FY24. FY24 OPM was 4.67% with EBITDA margin approximately 5.1%, well below target.
33. FY24 revenue growth 15% to 20% Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided revenue growth of somewhere around 15%-20% for FY24, revised to \~10% at Q4 FY23 and reaffirmed at 15% in Q1 FY24. FY24 revenue was ₹1,542 crore, up 4.49% YoY, missing both the original and revised targets.
34. Harsha Exito acquisition complete before end of FY23 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management intended to complete the Harsha Exito Engineering take-over before the end of FY23. NCLT pronounced the order on 12 January 2023 and the acquisition completed in Q4 FY23.
35. Aluminum division go-live in Q3 FY23 Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated the aluminum division would go live in Q3 FY23 with full-fledged production from Q4 FY23. Aluminum production commenced in December 2022 with authorized capacity of 12,000 MTPA, and commercial production ran from Q4 FY23.
36. Blended EBITDA margin 9% by FY24/FY25 Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said "Maybe 9% EBITDA overall" by FY24 or FY25, confirmed at Q2 FY23, then revised down over time to 7-7.5% by FY27 and a 6% to 8% transition. OPM was 4.67% in FY24, 5.10% in FY25 and 7.12% in FY26 - 9% was never reached.
37. Overall capex ₹90-120 crore over 2-3 years Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management planned to invest ₹90 crores to ₹120 crore in greenfield and brownfield projects over the next two to three years, refined to ₹90-100 crore at Q2 FY23. Capex totaled approximately ₹182 crore across FY23-FY26 (₹24, ₹15, ₹94 and ₹49 crore), above the upper end.
38. Plastics revenue ₹100-200 crore turnover Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management expected plastics turnover to add ₹100 crores to ₹200 crores, later raised to ₹200-300 crores over two years, then cut step by step to about ₹50-55 crores for FY26. Plastics revenue was ₹21 crore in FY24, ₹31.5 crore in FY25 and ₹32.12 crore in FY26.
39. Plastics commercialization in Q3 FY23 Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated plastics and green lead projects shall commercialize in Q3 of FY23, later moved to Q4 FY23 go-live. Plastics trial production commenced in Q3 FY23 and commercial production began around Q4 FY23, one quarter late.
40. Plastics Phase 1 capacity 24,000 tons per annum Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management targeted plastics production capacity of 24,000 tons per annum in the first phase itself, later described as 3,000 tons/month, then Phase 1 of 12,000 MT pa, then 1,000 tonnes/month. Actual plastics capacity was 9,000 MTPA as of Q3 FY24 and remained so through FY26.
41. NSE listing before Q3 FY23 Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated NSE listing "should be completed before Q3 subject to procedural timelines". Equity shares listed and traded on the NSE Capital Markets segment from 6 March 2023, in Q4 FY23.
42. ACE Green Recycling modules live by Q3 FY23 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management committed to the ACE Green Recycling collaboration going live with two modules of 1,200 tons per annum as a starter in the Andhra plant by Q3 2023; timelines slipped repeatedly across seven subsequent quarters. Green lead never reached commercial production and by Q4 FY24 was at feasibility stage.
43. FY23 EBITDA margin 6% to 6.5% Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected EBITDA margin of 6% to 6.5% for FY23. FY23 OPM was 5.22%, with EBITDA margin around 5.6-5.7%, below the 6% floor.
44. Operating margins consistent at 6% to 7% Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, management expected operating margins to stay consistent in the range of 6% to 7% and even plus, driven by specialty/value-added lead alloys. OPM ran below 6% in FY22 through FY25 (5.6%, 5.22%, 4.67%, 5.10%) before reaching 7.12% in FY26.
45. Exports \~50% of sales going forward Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management expected exports to continue to remain around 50% of sales going forward. Exports were 54% of revenue in FY22, 60% in FY23 and FY24, and 66% in FY25 and FY26.
46. Copper facility 30,000 MTPA with ₹12 crore phase 1 Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management stated copper facility production capacity was expected to be 30,000 metric tonnes per annum with an investment of around ₹12 crores in the first phase. Q4 FY22 disclosures confirmed copper standard capacity of 30,000 tons per annum, though FY22 production was only \~255 tons.
47. Total lead capacity 132,000 MTPA post-expansion Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management stated post capacity increase and approvals, production capacity was expected to increase to 132,000 metric tonnes per annum. Q4 FY22 disclosures confirmed lead finished goods capacity of 132,000 tons per annum, reiterated in Q1 FY23.
48. Tamil Nadu recycling plant 36,000 to 48,000 MTPA from FY23 Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management stated the Tamil Nadu recycling plant capacity of 36,000 MTPA would be scaled up to 48,000 MTPA from the beginning of FY23. Q4 FY22 disclosures showed the unit still at 36,000 MTPA, while later disclosures showed SMD-I Tamil Nadu at 48 KTPA.
49. FY22 revenue \~₹1,400 crore with 6%+ margin Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management expected operational revenue of around ₹1,400 crore in FY22 with a margin of over 6%, an increase of 39% YoY. FY22 revenue was ₹1,455 crore with EBITDA of ₹81.79 crore, a 5.6% margin - revenue exceeded, margin slightly short on EBITDA basis.
50. Lead business growth 25%+ CAGR Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management expected the lead business to grow at a CAGR of 25% plus, later restated as 20% to 25%, then cut to 15-20% volume growth and a 6-7% market CAGR by Q1 FY24. Lead volume growth ran 18% in FY22, flat in FY23, \~5-6% in FY24, 30% in FY25 and 11% in FY26 - no sustained 25% CAGR.