1. Personnel expenses at 9-10% of revenue Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, the CFO guided personnel expenses "hovering around between 9% to 10%". FY25 came in at 8.5% and Q4 FY25 at 7.5%; FY26 was 7.9% with Q4 FY26 at 6.3%, undershooting the range in most quarters.
2. Other expenses in a 15-19% of revenue corridor Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided other expenses to stay in the "corridor" of 15-19% of revenue going forward, after the CFO at Q2 FY26 said they would "be hovering around, let's say 20% level". Q3 FY26 other expenses were 16.9%, Q4 FY26 14.3%, and FY26 16.9%, holding the corridor.
3. BESS entry with margin ramp over time On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said BESS margins will "gradually reach the desired levels" as localization matures, with focus on supplying the domestic market first and scaling up slowly. Q1 FY27 saw the first BESS project won - 165 MW / 330 MWh in Andhra Pradesh for a C&I customer - while PCS solutions are not localized yet.
4. Railway tenders - 5 large projects in a ₹4,000-4,500 crore addressable market Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said the five announced railway projects (9,000 hp, 12,000 hp, Vande Bharat, EMU train sets) would be finalized "in the next one year or so" via OEM bids, in a ₹4,000-4,500 crore addressable market; the \~₹4,000 crore Vande Bharat opportunity was reiterated at Q1 FY25. Some tenders were finalized to OEMs by Q4 FY23 with traction transformer discussions underway, and the Kinet Railway Solutions Vande Bharat sleeper program was coming up at Q1 FY27, but no specific order value from these tenders is disclosed.
5. Power quality factory capacity from 20,000 to 30,000 MVAR On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management stated the Bangalore power quality factory was being taken from 20,000 MVAR up to 30,000 MVAR, after the greenfield facility had doubled capacity from 10,000 to 20,000 MVAR by Q2 FY23. No later disclosure of the 30,000 MVAR ramp completion exists in the record.
6. Vadodara RIP bushing factory - 1,000 units per annum Delivered - The May 2022 announcement stated the new Vadodara transformer components factory has capacity for up to 1,000 units per annum of Resin Impregnated Paper bushings from 72.5 kV to 400 kV, catering to a potential domestic market of 50 MUSD over five years. The factory was inaugurated in May 2022, about a month before the Q4 FY22 call, with some delays.
7. Hitachi acquisition of remaining ABB stake by December 2022 Delivered - The Q2 FY23 PPT stated the transfer of 100% of shares from ABB to Hitachi would be completed by end of December 2022. Hitachi announced the acquisition of the remaining 19.9% ahead of schedule, with the share transfer agreement signed September 30, 2022, and the FY23 annual report confirmed completion ahead of schedule in December 2022.
8. Marinus Link HVDC completion in \~36 months from Q2 FY26 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management stated the Marinus Link (Australia) order was at a very small percentage of execution and "we will be completing it in the next 36 months or so". At Q3 FY26 the project was in execution in Australia; the 36-month horizon has not been reached.
9. Khavda-Nagpur HVDC - 48/54 month completion On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated the Khavda-Nagpur HVDC execution timeline is contractual - 48 months for Bipole-I and 54 months for Bipole-II - and on track. At Q2 FY26 the project was tracking management's expectations and at Q1 FY27 it was picking up; the 48/54-month horizon has not been reached.
10. Bhadla-Fatehpur HVDC - 48/54 month completion, revenues from FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided the Bhadla-Fatehpur HVDC project to a completion period of 48 months for bi-pole one and 54 months for bi-pole two, with revenues starting from FY27. At Q1 FY27 the Bhadla project was starting, with full revenue contribution not yet materialized; the 48/54-month horizon has not been reached.
11. Karjan large power transformer facility by December 2028 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management announced a ₹2,000 crore greenfield large power transformer facility in Karjan, Vadodara, with transformer manufacturing to begin by end of the last quarter of calendar year 2028, reiterated at Q1 FY27 with a targeted commissioning date of December 2028. The groundbreaking ceremony was held June 12, 2026 and construction began that month; the December 2028 deadline has not been reached.
12. QIP proceeds - ₹756.57 crore capex and ₹350 crore working capital by FY26 Partial - Per the Prospectus dated March 13, 2025, the company estimated utilising ₹756.57 crore for capital expenditure and ₹350 crore for working capital by Fiscal 2026. As of the certificate dated July 24, 2026, only ₹634.63 crore was utilized towards capex and nil towards working capital - a delay attributed to adverse weather, revision in project scope, and no immediate working capital requirement - against ₹469.66 crore as of the April 28, 2026 certificate.
13. ₹2,000 crore India investment plan over 4-5 years from October 2024 On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, management announced a plan to invest ₹2,000 crore in India over the next four to five years for expansions, capacity building, and talent attraction, reiterated at Q4 FY25; at Q4 FY26 an additional ₹2,000 crore was announced, taking cumulative capex to close to ₹4,000 crore. H1 FY26 capex was close to ₹67 crore and Q3 FY26 utilization ₹155 crore against the ₹700 crore envisaged for FY26, with many projects on the ground taking 3-4 years.
14. Leh-Ladakh HVDC - feasibility study and project award On track - At the Q1 FY23 call, management believed the Leh-Kaithal HVDC tender "would come shortly", with the project expected to fructify in the "coming year" at Q3 FY23; the feasibility study report was to be submitted by 31st March per Q3 FY24. The FEED study order was won in Q1 FY24 and the study completed with report submitted by Q2 FY26, the technology decision resting with the customer; no HVDC order has been disclosed.
15. High-speed rail electrical package - tender expected from FY23 Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management said high-speed rail (Ahmedabad-Mumbai) electrical and balance-of-systems/SCADA orders "will come maybe in the next year or something like that", with tendering expected in the last quarter of FY23 at Q1 FY23. Bids were submitted and the electrical package was finalized on EPC by Q3 FY24, but the bullet train electrical package tenders were still delayed at Q4 FY25 and railway projects were progressing slower than originally anticipated at Q1 FY27, with no order disclosed.
16. ABB TSA / IT infrastructure exit by 2023 Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, the CFO said the company planned "within the three years" to come out of the IS infrastructure charges from ABB while building its own IT/ERP infrastructure, and at Q3 FY23 committed to exiting the TSA in 2023. The company migrated to its new ERP system (SAP/4HANA, "REIWA") in Q4 FY24, and by Q3 FY26 the ABB IT-expense sharing/royalty chapter was closed a year prior, operating standalone on the Hitachi Energy Operating System.
17. Capex run-rate of \~₹100 crore annually, sustained and augmented Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management anticipated an annualised capex run rate of around ₹100 crore between facility upgrade and greenfield investments, and at Q2 FY24 guided it would be sustained and further augmented. FY25 capex was close to ₹130 crore, H1 FY26 was close to ₹67 crore, and Q3 FY26 utilization was ₹155 crore against the ₹700 crore envisaged for FY26.
18. Services - ₹2,000 crore potential, double-digit share over time On track - At the Q2 FY23 call, management estimated the annual services market potential at around ₹2,000 crore with an immediate target of 10-12% of orders/revenues, and committed at Q3 FY23 to moving services from high single-digit to double-digit share "over a period of time"; at Q4 FY25 the plan was to grow services orders from \~₹500-600 crore to ₹2,000 crore over 3-4 years, with a new service business unit effective April 1, 2025. Services touched 12% of orders in Q2 FY25 and 11% ex-HVDC in Q3 FY25, but FY26 order mix was 5%; the ₹2,000 crore horizon has not been reached.
19. Kudus-Mumbai HVDC link - completion in 38 months from June 2022 Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management committed to completing the Adani 1,000 MW HVDC link in 38 months from June 2022, with Q3 FY24 reiterating completion "anywhere between March 25 to June 25". The project was commissioned in FY26 - announced at the Q4 FY26 call as India's first city infeed project, a 1,000 MW VSC-based HVDC with converter stations at Aarey and Kudus, "pumping the power" - but well past the contractual window, so the late completion is only partial delivery.
20. HVDC project cadence - at least one per year over 3-4 years Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management saw three or four HVDC projects in the pipeline and "one major project per year" over the long term, reiterated at Q2 FY22 as at least one HVDC project per year for the next three to four years; the cadence was revised upward at Q2 FY26 to 2-3 projects per year. Orders were booked for Kudus-Mumbai in Q1 FY23, Marinus Link in Q1 FY25, Khavda-Nagpur in Q3 FY25, and Bhadla-Fatehpur in Q1 FY26 - at least one in each of FY23, FY25, and FY26.
21. Double-digit operational EBITDA margin by end of FY25 Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management reiterated its plan to take operational EBITDA to a double-digit range "over a period of time in a sustainable manner" within "next two, three years", and at Q2 FY23 targeted a 10% EBITDA level by 2025, "still committed to that". Q4 FY24 operational EBITDA margin reached 10.2%, "one year ahead" of the FY25 target, and the level was sustained - FY26 full-year margin was 15.4% and Q1 FY27 was 16.0%.
22. Ashok Leyland / IIT Madras e-bus flash-charging pilot running by early FY22 Partial - At the Q1 FY21 call, management expected the Ashok Leyland eBus flash-charging (TOSA) pilot to be "up and running maybe by first quarter of next year", with the date pushed repeatedly - "in a couple of months" at Q4 FY21 and "in the next 6 weeks or so" at Q3 FY22. By Q2 FY23 the pilot was running at IIT Madras with bus manufacturers to localize the technology, roughly a year later than the repeatedly pushed dates, with no later disclosure of a formal commissioning.
23. Royalty / related-party cost at \~4-4.5% of revenue near term Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, the CFO said the \~4% royalty rate would continue "till this year end, and going forward… at least for next year", and at Q2 FY21 said royalty would hover around 4% to 4.5% beyond CY2020. Royalty expenses were ₹254.49 crore in FY25 and ₹241.85 crore in FY26, with the rate remaining in the 3.5-4.3% band through the record, consistent with the guided range.
24. Exports at 20-25% of orders/revenue in the medium term Delivered - At the Q3 FY21 call, management raised its export ambition from the earlier 15-20% range to 20-25% of orders in the medium term, reiterated at Q4 FY21 as 20-25% of sales "over a period of time"; the range was later widened to 25-30% of revenues/orders excluding large HVDC projects. Exports reached \~25% of the order book by Q3 FY22, more than a year ahead of the 2023 deadline, and have since run at 25-30% ex-HVDC - over 40% in Q3 FY25 and around 25% of revenue in FY26 and Q1 FY27.