1. No additional capex in 2025-26 - only routine/maintenance capex of \~US$8 crore Missed - A non-transcript filing in July 2025 stated the company had no plans for any additional capex in 2025-26, only routine/maintenance capex of around US$8 crore. The Board approved a ₹757 crore cement brownfield expansion in November 2025, representing significant additional capex beyond the stated routine/maintenance-only plan.
2. Margin range - strive for $70-90 per ton Pending - A non-transcript filing in February 2024 stated management strives for a margin of $70-90 per ton for their product, providing for normalized earnings of $60-80 million per quarter. Our record holds no disclosure of the actual per-ton margin achieved in FY24, FY25, or FY26 on a $/ton basis to confirm or contradict the target.
3. New market initiatives in Advanced Materials - contribute to top-line growth in FY26 and FY27 On track - In November 2025, management stated new market initiatives in the Advanced Materials segment are expected to contribute to top-line growth in FY26 and FY27. Advanced Materials segment revenue was ₹3,593 crore in FY26 versus ₹3,744 crore in FY25, a decline, though Q1 FY26 showed growth at ₹863 crore versus ₹724 crore in Q1 FY25.
4. Battery Anode Materials and Energy Storage Materials - development in the near future On track - A non-transcript filing in February 2025 stated RAIN is progressing towards developing materials for Battery Anode Materials and Energy Storage Materials in the near future. The company entered the North American MCMB market in Q3 2025, launched multiple strategic partnerships for next-generation energy-storage materials, and began construction of the Innovation Centre for Energy Storage Materials in Hamilton, Canada in 2024.
5. No major term debt maturities until October 2028 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call and Q4 FY26 call, management stated no major term debt maturities until October 2028. As of March 2026, Gross Term Debt was US$820 million, with Euro-denominated Senior Secured Term Loan of US$335 million due by October 2028 and USD-denominated Senior Secured Notes of US$449 million due in September 2029.
6. Rain Carbon - reduce energy use by more than 10% over three years (by \~2028) On track - The FY25 Annual Report stated Rain Carbon aims to reduce energy use by more than 10% over the next three years, based on real-time insights from online energy monitoring systems installed across four calcination sites. Energy monitoring systems were successfully installed, a steam pipeline overhaul in Castrop-Rauxel reduced natural gas consumption by 21.0 GWh, and a hybrid electrification project at Hamilton is expected to save \~60,000 GJ annually.
7. Carbon distillation entry in India - revenue from H2 FY26, pronounced impact in FY27 Pending - In November 2025, management stated revenue generation from carbon distillation operations in India is anticipated to begin in the latter half of FY26, with a more pronounced impact expected in FY27. Our record holds no disclosure of revenue from carbon distillation in India through Q4 FY26, though the FY27 window remains open.
8. Cement brownfield expansion - ₹757 crore, commissioning in Q4 CY 2027 On track - In November 2025, the Board approved a ₹757 crore brownfield expansion adding 0.15 crore tonnes clinker and 0.23 crore tonnes cement capacity, with commercial operations targeted to commence in the second half of calendar year 2027. During 2025, the company received necessary permissions to initiate the brownfield expansion at the Cement segment's site in Suryapet.
9. US$50 million SSN - repay on due date April 2025 without incremental borrowing Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided that the US$50 million SSN due in April 2025 will be repaid on the due date without making any incremental borrowing. The 2025 Notes of US$44 million were fully repaid by end of March 2025, with USD-denominated Senior Secured Notes due in April 2025 standing at US$0 million as at March 2025.
10. No major capacity expansions beyond HHCR, vertical shaft calciner, and ACP for 3-5 years Partial - At the Q2 FY21 call, management stated no major capacity expansions beyond the HHCR, vertical shaft calciner, and ACP projects, and at the Q3 FY21 call stated they were not planning any big investments for at least the next three to five years. The Board approved a ₹757 crore brownfield cement expansion in November 2025, at the very edge of the 3-5 year window from December 2020, and a carbon distillation entry in India was also announced.
11. Debt reduction - use cash flow for debt paydown starting March 2022 Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management expected to use cash flow for debt reduction starting March 2022, when prepayment penalties on bonds expire. Total debt reduced from \~US$1,212 million at end of Q4 2020 to US$820 million as of March 2026, the 2025 Notes of US$44 million were fully repaid by end of March 2025, and the company completed refinancing of long-term loans during 2023.
12. Average interest rate - reduce to about 4% within 1.5 years Missed - At the Q3 FY21 call, management stated they wanted to bring down the average interest rate to about 4%, hopeful of achieving it in the next one and a half years. Average borrowing cost stood at \~5% at Q4 2020, and the Q4 FY26 PPT stated management was watching markets for an opportunity to optimise interest cost, implying the rate remained above the 4% target.
13. Debt-to-EBITDA ratio - target well below 2.5x within 1.5 years Missed - At the Q3 FY21 call, management stated the target Debt-to-EBITDA ratio should be well below 2.5x as soon as possible, and they hoped to achieve it in the next one and a half years. Net debt to EBITDA ratio was 3.5x at end of Q4 2020 and stood at 2.85x as of March 2026, never reaching below 2.5x in any period covered by our record through Q4 FY26.
14. ACP plant in the U.S. - construction resume and commissioning Delivered - At the Q3 FY21 call, management stated construction on the ACP production facility in the U.S. had resumed, and the FY22 Annual Report stated the facility was expected to begin to provide return on investment during 2022. The anhydrous carbon pellet production facility in the U.S. was commissioned in 2021, and two leading global aluminium groups began industrial-scale tests of calcined ACP in 2024.
15. ACP plant in India - construction resume and become operational Missed - At the Q1 FY21 call, management stated the ACP plant in India could start immediately after the vertical shaft kiln CPC plant, with construction expected to take about six months once work resumes, and a non-transcript filing in October 2021 stated the plant was expected to become operational by H1 2022. Our record holds no disclosure confirming the ACP plant in India became operational, and no subsequent confirmation of the plant's operational status appears in our record.
16. HHCR plant - 60-70% capacity utilization in 2021, ramp to higher capacity in 2-3 years Partial - At the Q3 FY21 call, management targeted HHCR capacity utilization of about 60-70% in 2021, with an increased ramp-up in the next two years thereafter. The HHCR plant achieved improved reliability, boosting throughput and lowering per-tonne production costs in 2024, but our record holds no explicit disclosure of the plant reaching 60-70% utilization in 2021 or 70-80% by the 2-3 year horizon.
17. HHCR plant - first sale of water-white resins by late Q3 2020, revenue from Q4 2020 Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management anticipated making the first sale of water-white resins late in Q3, with revenue starting in Q4 2020 and stabilization and material production from October onwards. The company achieved its first sales milestone for advanced water-white resins in Q4 2020, one quarter later than the original Q3 2020 target.
18. Vertical shaft calciner plant - commence operations, first sale, and ramp-up Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management stated the new shaft calciner plant in India is ready to start by mid-September 2020, and the FY22 Annual Report stated the first shipment of shaft CPC was planned for the first half of 2022. The vertical-shaft calciner was commissioned in India and completed its first sale of CPC in 2021, and the plant achieved full operational capacity during 2025, increasing production capability to 370,000 TPA.