1. New carbon steel HSAW spiral pipe facility at Kutch - commissioning by June 2026 On track - At the Q4 FY26 PPT, management guided the new carbon steel HSAW spiral pipe facility at Kutch (18-meter pipes, 1,00,000 MT capacity) for commissioning by June 2026. Equipment commissioning is progressing as of the Q4 FY26 update, with the June 2026 deadline immediate.
2. RTL high-speed hot forming facility at Rajkot - commissioning by December 2026 On track - At the Q4 FY26 PPT, management guided the RTL high-speed hot forming facility at Rajkot (Gen 3 hubs and drivetrain components) for commissioning by December 2026. RTL recently completed expansion of its Pipaliya unit, and the Rajkot facility is under development.
3. FY27 standalone revenue - Rs. 4,800-5,000 crores Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided stand-alone revenue for FY27 of Rs. 4,800-5,000 crores, assuming things normalize in about a month. FY27 has not yet commenced; FY26 standalone revenue was Rs. 3,689 cr.
4. Standalone revenue of Rs. 6,000 cr at peak utilization of all expansions On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management stated that at peak utilization of all standalone expansions (Orissa, Saudi, circumferential capacity), standalone revenue can reach Rs. 6,000 crores. FY26 standalone revenue was Rs. 3,689 cr, and expansions are still underway.
5. Consolidated revenue of Rs. 7,000-7,500 cr in next 2-3 years On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management stated that on a consolidated basis, revenue of Rs. 7,500 crores is achievable in the next two to three years, reiterated at Q4 FY26. FY26 consolidated revenue was Rs. 4,494 cr, and the 2-3 year window extends to FY28-FY29 (SQL).
6. Saudi Arabia JV - 60% of capex in FY26, operational by December 2026 Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided 60% of capex in FY26 and operations by December 2026. The Q4 FY26 PPT and transcript revised the commissioning timeline to March 2027, with management noting a possible three-month spillage, while design and engineering were submitted for approval.
7. Phase-II Odisha spiral welded plant - commercial production by December 2025 Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided that Phase-II of the Odisha spiral welded plant will be into commercial production by the end of this calendar year, later revised to Q3 FY26. By Q4 FY26, the internal coating plant was in operations and the external 3LPE plant was under trial runs, not yet in full commercial production.
8. Ratnamani Finow Spooling Solutions FY26 revenue - Rs. 350+ crores, EBITDA margin \~20% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided RFSS revenue for FY26 of Rs. 350 plus crores with an EBITDA margin of roughly 20%, later maintained at Rs. 300 cr plus. RFSS FY26 revenue was Rs. 390 cr, exceeding the Rs. 350+ cr target.
9. Ravi Technoforge FY26 sales - Rs. 350+ crores, EBITDA margin closer to 14% Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided RTL sales for FY26 of almost Rs. 350+ crores with EBITDA margins closer to 14%, later revised to Rs. 360-380 cr. RTL FY26 revenue was Rs. 377 cr, meeting the revised range, but EBITDA margin improved to 12% versus the \~14% guided (SQL; D15 p.4).
10. FY26 standalone revenue growth - 5% to 10% Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided standalone revenue growth of anywhere between 5% to 10% for FY26, later revised to being as close as possible to last year's level. FY26 standalone revenue was Rs. 3,689 cr, a decline of \~24% versus FY25 standalone revenue of Rs. 4,876 cr.
11. Stainless steel cold finishing capacity expansion - operational in Q3 FY25 Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided that the stainless steel cold finishing plant capacity expansion will be operational in Q3 FY25. Production started at the facility by Q4 FY25, with ramp-up to optimal capacity anticipated to take another 3-6 months.
12. Spooling business Phase-2 - Rs. 240 cr, capacity 3,500 tons, revenue potential Rs. 600-700 cr On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided Phase-2 investment outlay for the spooling JV of close to Rs. 240 odd crores, capacity close to 3,500 tons, and revenue potential between Rs. 600-700 crores, later revised to capacity expansion ready by Q3 FY27 and commercial production from Q4 FY27. RFSS FY26 revenue was Rs. 390 cr, and Phase-2 expansion is in progress (SQL; D14 p.6).
13. Ravi Technoforge expansion - Rs. 240-250 cr, 18-24 months commissioning On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided the RTL expansion for auto parts with a budget close to Rs. 240-250 crores and a timeline of 18 to 24 months, later revised to commissioning by December 2026. RTL recently completed expansion of its Pipaliya unit to enhance capacity by 20%, and the larger Rajkot facility is on schedule.
14. Middle East greenfield plant - $40 million, 18-24 months commissioning On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided the greenfield plant in the Middle East for cold finishing with a budget close to $40 million and a timeline of 18 to 24 months, later revised to commissioning by March 2027. The Saudi Arabia subsidiary received CR by Q2 FY26, design and engineering are complete and submitted for approval, and plant setup activities were to begin in January 2026.
15. Spooling business - Rs. 400-500 cr in FY26 Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided the spooling business will target anywhere between Rs. 400 crores to Rs. 500 crores in FY26, later revised to Rs. 350 plus crores and then Rs. 300 cr plus. RFSS FY26 revenue was Rs. 390 cr, within the revised Rs. 350+ cr guidance but below the original Rs. 400-500 cr target.
16. Ravi Technoforge FY25 sales target - Rs. 310-330 crores Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided a sales target for Ravi Technoforge of roughly between Rs. 310 and Rs. 330 crores for FY25. RTL FY25 revenue was Rs. 284 cr (SQL).
17. Orissa plant capex - \~Rs. 170 cr, in FY25 at back end Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided that the Orissa plant capex of \~Rs. 170 cr will come in FY25 at the back end of the year, later revised to commissioning in Q1 FY26. Phase-I of the Odisha spiral welded plant was commissioned during FY26.
18. Spooling business - Rs. 100 cr turnover visibility, EBITDA margin 18-20% Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided that for the spooling business, with total capex closer to Rs. 20 cr, turnover visibility is closer to Rs. 100 cr with EBITDA margin in the range of 18-20%. RFSS FY26 revenue was Rs. 390 cr, and Q4 FY26 RFSS EBITDA margin was 43.8%.
19. FY25 consolidated revenue - \~Rs. 6,000 crores Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided consolidated revenue of \~Rs. 6,000 crores for FY25, later revised to standalone revenue close to Rs. 5,000-5,200 crores. FY25 consolidated revenue was Rs. 5,186 cr (SQL).
20. Hot extrusion capacity utilization - 50% to 60% in FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided that hot extrusion capacity utilization, then \~30%, is targeted to reach 50% to 60% in FY24. By Q4 FY24, the new extrusion capacity was running at 35-40% utilization.
21. FY24 capex - Rs. 150-200 crores Pending - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided that capex for FY24 will be in the range of Rs. 150-200 crores. Our record holds no explicit FY24 capex spend figure; CWIP increased from Rs. 101 cr in FY23 to Rs. 167 cr in FY24 (SQL).
22. Ravi Technoforge capex - completed by September/October 2023 Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided that the capex for Ravi Technoforge is expected to be completed by end of September/October 2023. By Q4 FY24, the 1st Phase of capex for reorganization of two small facilities to the mother facility had been completed.
23. Ravi Technoforge - FY24 revenue close to Rs. 300 cr, margin expansion of 200 bps Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided Ravi Technoforge will clock close to Rs. 300 cr revenue in FY24 with margin expansion of 200 bps, later revised to 10-15% growth and EBITDA margin close to FY22 levels. RTL FY24 revenue was Rs. 258 cr, and EBITDA margin was \~11%, a marginal expansion of \~20 bps.
24. FY24 standalone revenue - Rs. 5,000 cr plus/minus 5% Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided standalone revenue of Rs. 5,000 crores plus/minus 5% and consolidated revenue of \~Rs. 5,300 cr plus/minus 5% for FY24. FY24 standalone revenue was Rs. 4,804 cr, within the Rs. 4,750-5,250 cr band, and consolidated revenue was Rs. 5,059 cr, within the Rs. 5,035-5,565 cr band (SQL).
25. Stainless steel revenue potential - Rs. 1,500-1,600 cr in next two years Pending - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided that stainless steel revenue has potential to reach Rs. 1,500-1,600 cr in the next two years when extrusion capacity is optimally utilized. Our record holds no explicit stainless steel revenue breakdown for FY24-FY25 to verify the outcome (SQL).
26. Ravi Technoforge - Rs. 500-600 cr revenue in 2-3 years, EBITDA margin improvement of \~200 bps to \~16% Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided Ravi Technoforge revenue will reach Rs. 500-600 cr in the next two to three years with EBITDA margin improving to \~16%, later revised to Rs. 500-plus cr and then Rs. 360-380 cr for FY26. RTL FY26 revenue was Rs. 377 cr, and segment PBIT margin was 8.78% (SQL).
27. FY23 capex spend - Rs. 100-150 crores Pending - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided capex spend in FY23 of Rs. 100-150 crores, starting from the second half, later revised to \~Rs. 125 cr. Our record holds no full-year FY23 capex figure; by Q4 FY23, approximately Rs. 60-70 cr had been spent on announced plans.
28. 15 MW solar plant - commissioned by June end (2022) Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the 15 MW solar plant will be commissioned by June end. A 15 MW solar project was successfully commissioned in March 2023.
29. Carbon steel submerged arc welded pipe and coating capacity expansion - \~Rs. 170 cr, operational in 18-24 months Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the carbon steel SAW pipe and coating capacity expansion at a new location with capex of \~Rs. 170 crores over 18 to 24 months. Phase-I of the Odisha plant was commissioned during FY26, and by Q4 FY26 the internal coating plant was in operations while the external 3LPE plant was under trial runs.
30. Stainless steel capacity expansion of \~Rs. 180 cr - operational in 18-24 months Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the stainless steel capacity expansion of \~Rs. 180 crores will be operational in 18 to 24 months, later revised through multiple quarters to operational in Q3 FY25. Production started at the stainless-steel cold finishing facility by Q4 FY25, with ramp-up to optimal capacity anticipated to take another 3-6 months.
31. Overseas capacity study (US) - decision in 4-6 months Pending - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided that the overseas capacity study for the US is ongoing with a consultant appointed, and a decision is expected in 4-6 months. Our record holds no further mention of a US plant decision; a Middle East JV was announced in FY25.
32. Next phase capex - close to Rs. 500-600 crores, plans in FY23 Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided that the next phase of capex will be close to Rs. 500-600 crores, with plans to be made in FY23 after the extrusion press stabilizes. By Q4 FY22, capex of Rs. 350-400 cr was announced, and by Q2 FY25 larger plans including the Middle East plant, RTL expansion, and spooling Phase-2 were detailed.
33. New stainless steel hot extrusion plant - FY23 target of 6,000 tons (20-30% utilization) Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided the new stainless-steel hot extrusion plant FY23 target of 6,000 tons, representing 20% to 30% capacity utilization. FY23 hot extrusion capacity utilization was \~30%, at the upper end of the guided range.
34. New LSAW plant - FY23 target of 50,000-60,000 tons (\~50% utilization) Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided the new LSAW plant FY23 target of 50,000-60,000 tons, representing \~50% capacity utilization. FY23 newer LSAW capacity utilization was \~30-35%.
35. FY23 stainless steel top line - Rs. 1,100-1,200 crores Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided stainless-steel top line target of Rs. 1,100-1,200 crores for FY23, representing at least 40% growth over FY22. By Q2 FY23, stainless steel revenue was 30-35% of total, broadly Rs. 1,100-1,200 cr, implying the target was met.
36. FY23 stainless steel order booking target - Rs. 1,200 crores Pending - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided stainless-steel order booking target of Rs. 1,200 crores for FY23. Our record holds no explicit FY23 stainless steel order booking figure.
37. FY23 revenue growth - 15% to 20% Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided FY23 revenue growth of 15% to 20%, later revised to revenue of Rs. 3,800-4,000 cr. FY23 standalone revenue was Rs. 4,474 cr, growth of 42.55% (SQL).
38. New hot extrusion plant - mass production in Q3 FY22, 20% utilization in six months Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided that the new hot extrusion plant will go for mass production in Q3 FY22 and achieve about 20% utilization in the next six months. The plant started trials around May-June 2021 with tooling issues; FY23 utilization reached \~30%.
39. German plant revamp - completion in 9-12 months, revenue potential 2x capex Pending - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided a capex of \~Rs. 100 crores for a German plant revamp for the stainless steel division, with completion in 9 to 12 months and revenue potential of 2 times the capex. Our record holds no further disclosure on this plant's completion or revenue.
40. Revenue of Rs. 4,500-5,000 crores by FY24 (third year) Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided that by the third year revenue may reach Rs. 4,500 to 5,000 crores, later revised to standalone revenue of Rs. 5,000 cr plus/minus 5% for FY24. FY24 standalone revenue was Rs. 4,804 cr, within the Rs. 4,500-5,000 cr range (SQL).
41. Year-on-year growth of 15% to 20% for next two to three years Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided year-on-year growth of 15% to 20% for the next two to three years, later revised to 10% to 15%. Growth was 42.55% in FY23 and 13.07% in FY24, within or above the revised band, but fell to 2.52% in FY25 (SQL).
42. Stainless steel export mix - 40% to 50% in next three years Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided that the export mix for stainless steel alone will be definitely 40% to 50% in the next three years. By Q4 FY24, more than 50% of stainless steel turnover came from direct physical exports.
43. Stainless steel division revenue - Rs. 800-1,000 crores in FY22 Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided that the stainless steel division should achieve revenue between Rs. 800 crores and Rs. 1,000 crores for FY22. The company reported total FY22 revenue of Rs. 3,139 cr, with carbon steel comprising 75% of 9M FY22 revenue, implying stainless steel revenue fell materially short of the guided range.
44. Rs. 60 crores investment in solar power - subject to Gujarat Government policy Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided a plan for Rs. 60 crores investment in solar power, subject to Gujarat Government policy clarity. A 15 MW solar project was commissioned in March 2023 with an investment of approx. Rs. 50 crores, and additional solar plants followed.
45. FY22 capex - roughly Rs. 125 crores Pending - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided that total capex addition to fixed assets in FY22 should be roughly Rs. 125 crores. Our record holds no explicit FY22 capex spend figure; FY22 CWIP was Rs. 107 cr (SQL).
46. New carbon steel LSAW line - 30% to 40% utilization in FY22 Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided the new carbon steel LSAW line will achieve 30% to 40% utilization in FY22, later revised to 20% to 30% due to pending approvals. By Q3 FY22, the plant had projects in hand worth \~Rs. 200 crores, suggesting meaningful but below-target utilization.
47. New stainless steel seamless pipe plant - Rs. 150-200 crores extra turnover in FY22, 3,000-4,000 tons production Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided the new stainless steel seamless pipe plant would contribute Rs. 150-200 crores of extra turnover in FY22 and achieve 3,000-4,000 tons of production. The production target was later revised down to 2,000-3,000 tonnes, while actual FY22 utilization was \~5%, well below the 15-20% initially guided.
48. EBITDA margin of 16% to 18% - maintainable over a longer period Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided that the EBITDA margin will be in the range of 16% to 18% plus/minus 1% on average and should hold good over a longer period, later revised to 15% to 18%. Annual OPM remained within the guided band across FY22-FY26, ranging from 15.76% to 17.73% (SQL).
49. FY22 revenue target - more than Rs. 3,000 crores Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided FY22 revenue target of more than Rs. 3,000 crores, reiterated with plus/minus Rs. 100 crores. FY22 full-year revenue was Rs. 3,139 crores (SQL).
50. New stainless steel capacity - 35% to 40% domestic market share to start, ramp to 60-80% utilization in 2-3 years Partial - At the Q2 FY21 call, management guided the new stainless steel capacity will achieve 35% to 40% domestic market share to start with, ramping to 60-80% utilization in two to three years. Utilization reached 35-40% by FY24 and 60% by FY25, but no specific domestic market share figure is disclosed in our record.
51. New capex of \~Rs. 600 crores to generate Rs. 1,500-2,000 crores turnover in 3-4 years Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management guided that the new capex of \~Rs. 600 crores will generate about Rs. 1,500-2,000 crores in turnover over the next 3-4 years. Incremental revenue from FY21 to FY24 was \~Rs. 2,718 cr, well above the target (SQL).
52. Entire CWIP of \~Rs. 452 crores capitalized by March 2021 Partial - At the Q2 FY21 call, management guided that the entire CWIP of \~Rs. 452 crores will be capitalized by March 2021. Both capex plans were completed and capitalized, but CWIP in FY22 was Rs. 107 crores.
53. ERW capacity expansion - completed by January 2021 Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management guided that the ERW capacity expansion from 72,000 to 120,000 tonnes will be completed with production starting in the second week of January. By Q4 FY21, carbon steel ERW pipe capacity was increased by \~60,000 tons and was successfully running production.
54. Stainless steel hot extrusion expansion - completed by December 2020, trial production by Q4 FY21 Partial - At the Q2 FY21 call, management guided that the stainless steel hot extrusion expansion will be completed by December and trial production will start by December, with good quantity trial production by Q4. By Q4 FY21, the capacity was capitalized and extrusions had been done, but more trials and approvals were needed due to COVID-related supplier delays.
55. LSAW line pipe capacity - API license in a month, production in Q3 FY21 Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management guided that the new LSAW line pipe capacity of \~150,000 tonnes will receive the API license in a month and production will start in Q3 FY21. By Q4 FY21, the carbon steel LSAW line pipe capacity was capitalized and running successfully in production.
56. FY21 EBITDA margin - 16% to 18% Pending - At the Q2 FY21 call, management guided that the EBITDA margin for the entire year FY21 will be in the 16% to 18% range. Our record holds no full-year FY21 EBITDA margin disclosure; H1 FY21 EBITDA margins were 13.5%.
57. FY21 revenue target - Rs. 2,200 crores plus/minus Rs. 100 crores Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management guided a revenue target for FY21 of Rs. 2,200 crores plus-minus Rs. 100 crores and stated we will achieve it. FY21 full-year revenue was Rs. 2,341.5 crores.