• Domestic sugar prices: While mill-level sugar prices have fallen by up to 25%, retail prices remain elevated above ₹63 to ₹64 per kg because retailers are reluctant to sell at a loss. Government enforcement measures and raids have brought physical trade to a standstill, which could lead to supply shortages during the festive season.
• Import feasibility: Elevated international raw sugar prices would make refined imported sugar cost approximately ₹57 to ₹58 per kg ex-factory, rendering large-scale imports unfeasible to ease supply pressure.
• New crop timeline: A steady supply of new sugar is only expected post-Diwali due to initial labor constraints, low early-season recovery rates, and drought conditions in key regions like Karnataka and Maharashtra.
• Mill operational challenges: Mills face potential margin pressure from political and farmer demands for higher cane prices, lingering trader hesitation, and risks to ethanol investments for facilities without dual-feedstock capabilities.