• Export logistics challenges: Surging freight rates, rising insurance costs, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East represent the primary hurdles for Indian sugar exports rather than international pricing.
• Export volume progress: Out of a total allocation of approximately 1.5 million tons plus an additional 87,000 tons, only about 3.6 lakh tons of sugar has been exported so far to key buyers such as the Middle East, Afghanistan, and Sri Lanka.
• Regional export viability: Global prices around $540 make Indian sugar viable internationally, but high domestic freight makes exports from northern regions like Uttar Pradesh unviable, restricting feasible exports primarily to Maharashtra and Karnataka.
• Ethanol pricing outlook: As domestic sugar prices rise, ethanol production faces profitability pressures unless the government raises the procurement price paid by oil marketing companies to the sugar sector.