• Domestic trade disruption: Retail sugar prices remain elevated at ₹63 to ₹64 per kg despite mill-level price drops of up to 25%, as government raids and storage controls have brought trading to a standstill and strained festive season pipelines.
• Import viability: High international prices will result in refined imported sugar costing ₹57 to ₹58 per kg ex-factory, limiting large-scale imports from resolving supply chain tightness.
• New crop outlook: A consistent supply of new sugar is only expected post-Diwali due to October labor shortages and low recovery rates, with broader output threatened by El Niño and drought conditions in Karnataka and Maharashtra.
• Mill operational challenges: Mills face potential disputes at the season's start from farmers and politicians demanding higher cane prices after seeing retail peaks of ₹60 to ₹65 per kg, compounded by strict government price controls and ethanol diversion constraints.