• Cooking oil prices: Retail prices are anticipated to drop by ₹5 to ₹6 per kg during the festive period, following a 15 to 20-day time lag required for retailers to exhaust higher-cost inventory.
• Global edible oils: Substantial sunflower crop outputs from Russia (20 to 21 million tonnes) and Ukraine (12 to 13 million tonnes), alongside duty cuts, are expected to pressure cooking oil markets and cap price increases for soybean and palm oil over the next 2 to 3 months.
• Mustard crop outlook: Favorable rainfall across core regions like Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh points to a strong Rabi season with potential output reaching up to 15 million tonnes, despite localized concerns in Maharashtra and Karnataka.
• Sugar price controls: Domestic sugar currently trades under informal price controls within an ex-mill band of ₹44 to ₹46 per kg, with retail price adjustments also delayed by inventory turnover.