• Global balance: The world sugar outlook shifted from a projected surplus of about 1 million tons to a deficit of more than 3 million tons, with production and crushing concerns in the EU, Thailand, India and Brazil. Atul Chaturvedi said global prices have little direct bearing on India’s highly regulated market.
• Domestic supply: India’s opening stock was described as 3.6 million metric ton, down 2.4 from the usual 6 million ton. Chaturvedi said mills face a sugar shortage; the government allocated close to 16 lakh tons for the second half of October, including about 14 lakh tons from domestic sources and another 2 lakh tons from imports.
• Ethanol diversion: Praful Vithalani said there would be no diversion of sugar juice or B-heavy molasses to ethanol, and that the government had indicated no ethanol diversion from sugar for 2026-27. Chaturvedi said this would add to mills’ overhead pressures, alongside lower expected crushing in Maharashtra and Karnataka.
• Crop and trade risks: Chaturvedi said this year’s El Niño effect could reduce sugar output by anywhere between 25% to 30%, with cane drying up in Karnataka and Maharashtra. He said exports were out of the question and imports might need serious consideration; sugar from UP could also move toward western India.
• Price outlook: Vithalani said ex-mill prices for 2026-2027 might be around ₹45, while Chaturvedi said values should remain elevated and consumers should brace for higher prices. Chaturvedi agreed costs were around the ₹41, ₹42 mark based on last year’s FRP or SAP, but said they may need recalculating after farmers’ demands are resolved.