1. PAT margin of 5-5.5% Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided PAT of around 5-5.5% alongside the EBITDA margin improvement. Q2 FY26 PAT margin was 5.33%, within the band, though Q3 FY26 dipped to 2.97% before Q1 FY27 reached 7.04%.
2. ₹100 cr quarterly revenue - in next two to three quarters Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said if markets improve, the company should reach ₹100 cr quarterly revenue "in next two to three quarters". Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹102.91 cr, the highest-ever quarter, reached roughly 4 quarters after the statement.
3. Q4 FY26 revenue - ₹95-98 cr Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided Q4 FY26 revenue of ₹95-98 cr, conditional on winters not extending too much. Q4 FY26 revenue was ₹91.62 cr, short of the ₹95-98 cr band by roughly ₹3-6 cr.
4. Q3 FY26 revenue - ₹80-83 cr Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided RPPL Q3 FY26 revenue of ₹80-83 cr. Q3 FY26 revenue was ₹71.62 cr, below the ₹80-83 cr band by roughly ₹8-11 cr.
5. Q2 FY26 revenue - ₹85-90 cr Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided Q2 FY26 revenue of ₹85-90 cr for the company. Q2 FY26 revenue was ₹86.43 cr, inside the guided band.
6. Olive Ecopak peak EBITDA margin - 16-17% On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided Olive EBITDA at 16-17% at ₹210-220 cr revenue, revised at Q2 FY26 to 15-16% and \~16% at the ₹200 cr peak revenue level. Q1 FY27 Olive EBITDA margin was 26.77%, though FY26 came in at 4.18% and peak revenue has not been reached.
7. Olive Ecopak FY28 revenue - ₹140-150 cr Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management reiterated Olive FY28 revenue of ₹140-150 cr, earlier guided at Q2 FY26 as FY27 revenue with full capacity (\~₹200-215 cr) by FY28. Q1 FY27 Olive revenue was ₹17.22 cr, an annualized run-rate of \~₹69 cr.
8. No major capex for 12-15 months Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management committed to no major capex for the next 12-15 months, planning only small capex to consolidate and reduce debt; at Q2 FY26 it committed to holding any further major investment for the next one year. Q1 FY27 confirmed no capex this year, with only flaring capacity expanded and injection moulding at 5,800 MT; the Eastern India facility remains on hold despite land procured.
9. Renewable power cost savings - ₹1.5-1.75 cr per annum On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected the captive wind-solar project to generate annual savings of roughly ₹1.5-1.75 cr. The project is expected to be commissioned in October 2026, so no savings have been realized yet.
10. Olive Ecopak FY27 PBT breakeven On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management reiterated Olive FY27 revenue of around ₹90 cr ± ₹5 cr and expects PBT at least breakeven this financial year. Q1 FY27 Olive PAT was −₹1.74 cr with positive EBITDA of ₹4.61 cr, with the FY27 horizon not yet reached.
11. Olive Ecopak breakeven - Q3 or Q4 FY26 Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management revised the Olive breakeven timeline to "definitely" breakeven in Q3 or Q4 of FY26; at Q3 FY26 it expected roughly PBT breakeven at ₹24-25 cr revenue. Olive Q3 FY26 PAT was −₹4.27 cr and FY26 PAT −₹18.89 cr, with Q1 FY27 still at −₹1.74 cr - breakeven was not achieved in FY26.
12. Bonus issue - 2:1 ratio Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 PPT, the company stated bonus shares were in process to be issued in the ratio of 2:1, subject to requisite approvals. Face value was split from ₹10 to ₹5 on 18th September 2024, and during Q1 FY26 warrants converted into 9,00,000 equity shares of ₹5 each reflecting the subdivision and bonus approved on 7 June 2025.
13. FY27 consolidated EBITDA margin - 15-16% On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided a consolidated EBITDA margin "in the range of 15% to 16%" as capacities are scaled up and utilized; at Q3 FY26 it guided plastic at \~15-15.5% and paper at 16-16.5%. Q1 FY27 consolidated EBITDA margin was 16.05%, with Injection Moulding at 13-14% and Packaging at 16-17%.
14. FY27 plastic business revenue - ₹360-370 cr On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided plastic business revenue of \~₹360-370 cr for FY27; at Q1 FY27 it was "very positive" of being "very close" to ₹420-430 cr this year and "surely" by FY28. Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹102.91 cr, up 24.72% YoY, an annualized run-rate of \~₹412 cr.
15. Odisha plant - setup in 15 ± 2 months Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said Odisha plant setup should take 15 ± 2 months, but then deferred it - 6-8 months at Q2 FY25, 12-15 months at Q4 FY25, on hold 9-12 months at Q2 FY26, and at Q1 FY27 the Eastern India Phase 1 (₹25-30 cr minimum, ₹80-100 cr revenue) is "not on the table as yet". Land has been procured but no construction has commenced.
16. Olive Ecopak FY27 revenue - ₹140-150 cr On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided Olive Ecopak FY27 revenue of at least ₹140-150 cr; Q3 FY26 guided paper business \~₹120-130 cr for FY27, and Q1 FY27 reset Olive FY27 to around ₹90 cr ± ₹5 cr with ₹140-150 cr next year. Q1 FY27 Olive revenue was ₹17.22 cr with positive EBITDA of ₹4.61 cr, an annualized run-rate of \~₹69 cr.
17. Olive Ecopak FY26 revenue - \~₹90-95 cr Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided Olive JV revenue of \~₹90-95 cr in FY26 with break-even at that level; Q1 FY26 revised breakeven to Q3 or Q4 FY26, and Q2 FY26 committed to at least 50% capacity utilization by February-March 2026. Olive FY26 revenue was ₹52.67 cr with EBITDA of ₹2.20 cr and PAT of −₹18.89 cr.
18. FY26 PAT - ₹19-20 cr Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided standalone FY26 PAT at \~₹19-20 cr. FY26 PAT was ₹17.22 cr, up 19.09% YoY from ₹14.46 cr, short of the band.
19. FY26 EBITDA margin - \~15% (revised to 15.5% in two quarters) Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 EBITDA margin at \~15%; Q1 FY26 guided \~15.5% within two quarters, and Q2 FY26 said with another ₹30-40 cr revenue the company should be "well in 16%". FY26 EBITDA margin was 15.34% and Q1 FY27 reached 16.05%.
20. FY26 revenue - ₹360-370 cr (revised to \~₹350 cr) Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided standalone FY26 revenue at \~₹365-370 cr, reiterated \~₹360 cr as "still intact" at Q1 FY26, then revised down at Q2 FY26 to 8-10% growth, i.e. \~₹350 cr. FY26 revenue was ₹332.18 cr, growth of 0.74%, missing even the revised target by \~₹18 cr.
21. Debt reduction - long-term debt down ₹5 cr, short-term to ₹45-48 cr by FY25-end Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided long-term debt to reduce by around ₹5 cr and short-term debt from ₹58 cr to ₹45-48 cr by the end of the next year; Q1 FY26 guided borrowings down at least ₹15 cr over 4-5 quarters from ₹96 cr, and Q1 FY27 committed to 15-20% reduction over at least one year. Short-term debt stayed near ₹58 cr, borrowings were ₹96 cr at 30 June 2025 and roughly ₹95-100 cr at Q3 FY26, with around ₹15-18 cr converted to a 2.25% JPY loan.
22. FY25 PAT - ₹14-15 cr excluding JV Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided PAT excluding JV contribution of around ₹14-15 cr for FY25; at Q2 FY25 it said standalone profitability should be at least 40% more than last year. FY25 PAT was ₹14.46 cr versus FY24's ₹9.5 cr, up \~52% and within the guided band.
23. FY25 exports - \~₹60 cr Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided export revenue of around ₹60 cr for FY25; at Q2 FY25 it guided exports at 15-16% of overall revenue, around ₹45-50 cr. FY25 exports were ₹53.87 cr, up 27.53% from ₹42.24 cr, with Q4 FY25 exports at ₹19.55 cr or 21.71% of quarterly revenue.
24. Olive Ecopak FY25 revenue - ₹90-100 cr (revised to ₹30-35 cr) Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided Olive Ecopak revenue of ₹90-100 cr for FY25, EBITDA positive but PAT loss-making; at Q2 FY25 the target was reset to ₹30-35 cr due to a 1-1.5 quarter delay in stabilization. Olive FY25 revenue was ₹16.38 cr with an EBITDA loss of ₹8.37 cr and net loss of ₹22.63 cr.
25. FY25 consolidated revenue - \~₹400 cr (revised from \~₹500 cr) Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided FY25 consolidated revenue of roughly ₹400 cr, a downward revision from the earlier \~₹500 cr target. FY25 standalone revenue was ₹329.74 cr and Olive contributed ₹16.38 cr, a consolidated figure of approximately ₹346 cr, well below the ₹400 cr target.
26. FY25 standalone revenue - ₹310-320 cr Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided FY25 standalone revenue at ₹320 cr; Q4 FY24 guided \~15% top-line growth for FY25, and Q2 FY25 confirmed the ₹310-320 cr target "looks intact". FY25 revenue was ₹329.74 cr, up 20.17%, exceeding the band.
27. FY24 EBITDA margin - 14% ± 1% Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided a sustainable EBITDA margin of 14% ± 1% going ahead. FY24 EBITDA margin was 13.4%, within the 13-15% band; at Q4 FY24 the guidance was tightened to 14% ± 0.5%.
28. FY24 revenue - ₹285 ± 5 cr (revised from ₹300 cr) Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management revised down the earlier ₹300 cr standalone FY24 target to "₹285 ± 5" due to raw material price drops, reiterated as "around 280-290 crores" at Q2 FY24. FY24 turnover was ₹274.39 cr, up 8.8% - volume grew 17.56% but realization per ton dropped 10.5%.
29. Sarigam GST subsidy - benefit to start within 1-2 quarters Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated the Sarigam GST subsidy benefit (\~35-40 lakh per quarter) would start within the next 1-2 quarters and run for 10 years, with repeated re-timings through Q1 FY24. Q1 FY26 realized only ₹15-16 lakh of GST benefit, with Q2 FY26 expected at ₹30-40 lakh - a start over two years late at a fraction of the guided quarterly quantum.
30. Injection moulding - toll manufacturing capacity and revenue ramp Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said production under the exclusive toll manufacturing agreement would commence the first week of September 2022 with 1,000 MT initial capacity, with the FY24 revenue target moving from ₹16-18 cr to ₹12-15 cr, ₹12-14 cr, then ₹30-35 cr for FY25, ₹28-30 cr, and ₹65-70 cr for FY26. Commercial production commenced in September 2022; FY24 revenue was ₹20.86 cr, FY25 ₹42 cr, and capacity reached 5,800 MT in Q1 FY27, a 5.8x increase since FY23.
31. EBITDA per kg - ₹34 ± 1 for FY23 Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management revised down the EBITDA per kg expectation to ₹34 ± 1 for FY23. FY23 EBITDA per kg was ₹30.52, with Q4 FY23 at ₹27.84, below the ₹33-35 band.
32. FY23 EBITDA margin - 15% ± 1% Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided full-year EBITDA margin in the range of 15 ± 1%. FY23 EBITDA margin was 14.07%, just inside the lower bound of 14%; management attributed the shortfall to higher electricity cost in Gujarat and the delayed GST subsidy.
33. FY23 volume - 11,000 MT Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said the company will "definitely" cross 10,000 MT of volume for the full year, and at Q2 FY23 guided FY23 volumes of around 11,000 MT. FY23 volumes were 10,883 tons, within \~1% of the 11,000-ton guidance.
34. FY23 revenue - ₹260 ± 5 cr Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided FY23 top line of around ₹260 ± 5 crores, reaffirmed at Q3 FY23 as "anywhere between 255 to 260" crores. FY23 turnover was ₹252.19 cr, up \~27%, with the shortfall attributed to raw material price drops while volumes of 10,883 MT nearly met the 11,000 MT guidance.
35. Olive Ecopak JV - commercial production by October/November 2023, ₹200 cr revenue potential Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected Olive Ecopak commercial production from 1st October 2023 with \~₹200 crore full revenue potential and \~15% EBITDA margin at phase one; commencement then slipped repeatedly - November 2023, end December 2023, Jan/Feb 2024, trial runs by end March 2024, with revenue targets resetting from ₹90-100 cr for FY25 to ₹30-35 cr, ₹90-95 cr for FY26, and ₹140-150 cr for FY27. Commercial production commenced 30th March 2024, about 5 months late; FY26 Olive revenue was ₹52.67 cr and Q1 FY27 ₹17.22 cr, with ₹131.22 cr invested till 31 March 2025.
36. Tube laminates - revenue from Q4 FY23 onwards Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management committed that tube laminates machine upgradation would take four to six weeks, with revenues expected from Q4 onwards. At Q1 FY24 the category was dropped due to technical limitations in commercializing; production had been started and technically established but stopped due to high wastages, needing a specific machine, with a restart only contemplated in the next round of investment.
37. Barrier packaging revenue - from \~5% to 10-15% of revenue in coming year, eventually 20-25% Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected barrier packaging to grow from \~5% of revenue to 10%-15% "in coming year", and eventually up to 20%-25%; annual targets moved from ₹32-35 cr for FY24 to ₹25-27 cr, ₹28-30 cr for FY25, then \~₹35-37 cr. FY23 came in at ₹23.85 cr, \~9.5% of revenue, FY25 at roughly ₹50 cr, and Q2 FY26 at around ₹17 cr, \~20% of revenue - the eventual 20-25% share reached on a quarterly basis.
38. Unit I & III consolidation and modernization - \~₹15 cr capex to improve efficiency and profitability Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management committed to consolidation and modernization of Unit-I and Unit-III with new capex of \~₹15 crores to improve production efficiency and profitability, with the FY22 annual report placing it at \~₹17 cr approx.. The programme at Umbergaon, Gujarat was completed, adding 500 MT extrusion and 250 MT thermoforming capacity at \~₹13.5 crore invested, with production at the new Unit I commencing from 15th March 2022.