1. FY27 EBITDA margin - 12% plus On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, the CFO confirmed FY27 EBITDA margins could be 12%+ once Jumbo ramps, later revised to 10-11% at Q3 FY26 and to a 10-12% target at Q1 FY27 with 1-2 quarters more needed. Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin was 7.9%; no full-year FY27 outcome is yet on record.
2. FY27 turnover - \~₹1,100 crore plus On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, the CFO guided FY27 consolidated turnover at approximately INR 1,100 crores or "INR 1,100 crores plus", later softened to "should exceed INR 1,000 crores, that is for sure" at Q3 FY26. Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹229 crore, consistent with the \~₹1,000-1,100 crore trajectory; the full-year outcome is not yet on record.
3. MDF domestic volume - cross 1.97 lakh CBM in FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management targeted MDF domestic volume to cross the FY25 mark of 1.97 lakh CBM in FY26. FY26 MDF sales volume was 2,40,178 CBM with India 90% of volume, implying \~2.16 lakh CBM domestic - the target was achieved.
4. MDF revenue growth - 8-10% in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided MDF revenue value growth of around 8% to 10% for FY26. FY26 MDF revenue was ₹609.1 crore, down 8.2% YoY, against the guided growth.
5. FY26 EBITDA margin - 12-14% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided group EBITDA margin between 12% to 14% for FY26, revised to 10-12% at Q2 FY26 and 8-9% at Q3 FY26. FY26 EBITDA margin was 9.3%, approximately achieving the revised 8-9% target.
6. Export price hikes - 7-9% for FY25 Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management saw a price hike of around 7% to 9% for exports in FY25, with a 7% increase made in April. FY25 MDF export realisation was ₹21,279/CBM, up 7.9% YoY, but laminate export realisation was ₹691/sheet, down 4.8% YoY - in range for MDF, not laminates.
7. FY25 turnover - cross ₹1,000 crore Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, the internal budget targeted crossing Rs. 1,000 crore turnover in FY25, revised to \~₹950 crore at Q1 FY25 and to 10-15% growth at Q2 FY25. FY25 revenue was ₹897.9 crore, below the target.
8. Plywood - 1,000 boards/day by September 2024, 3,000 by September 2025 Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call and PPT, management planned to scale plywood from 300 boards per day to 1,000 by September 2024 and 3,000 by September 2025. Q4 FY25 saw little plywood revenue, the division stayed minimal, and by Q3 FY26 the plywood subsidiary was being diluted into an associate.
9. FY25 MDF revenue growth - 15-20% Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, the CFO guided FY25 MDF revenue growth of 15% to 20%. FY25 MDF revenue was ₹663.7 crore, up 5.2% YoY, below the guided range.
10. FY25 laminate growth - \~10% plus ₹45-50 crore from new project Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, the CFO guided FY25 laminate growth of around 10% plus around ₹45-50 crore additional turnover from the new project, revised to 20-25% value growth at Q4 FY24. FY25 laminate revenue was ₹198.9 crore, up 4.7% YoY, with negligible new-project contribution.
11. FY25 EBITDA margin - \~18% maintain and improve Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, the CFO confirmed the company can maintain the overall yearly \~18% margin and improve on it, revised through FY25 to 14-16%, \~14%, \~12% and finally 12-14%. FY25 EBITDA margin was 11.8%, below even the revised range.
12. Laminate project - overall margin improvement to 12-13% Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, the CFO said the laminate project is expected to raise overall laminate EBITDA margin from 8-9% to almost 12-13%, later revised to 12-15%, then Jumbo 14-16%, then 12-14% blended. FY26 laminate EBITDA margin was 8.6% and Q1 FY27 was 7.0%.
13. ₹2,500 crore turnover - five-year target On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, the CFO reiterated the target of Rs. 2,500 crore turnover in the span of the next five years, later specified as by FY29, and reaffirmed at Q3 FY25. FY26 revenue was ₹862 crore and Q1 FY27 was ₹229 crore; the FY29 horizon remains open.
14. Export obligation - balance of ₹48 crore recovered in two quarters Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said the remaining export obligation balance of Rs. 48 crore would be recovered in "hardly maybe two quarters, not more than that", later revised to closing \~₹20 crore within FY24. Export obligations were fulfilled by end of FY24, within the stated timeline.
15. Debt-equity ratio - improve from 0.66 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected the debt-equity ratio to "definitely improve" from 0.66, later committing to keep D/E from increasing and not beyond one for new projects. D/E improved to 0.53 by Q4 FY24, 0.41 by Q4 FY25 and 0.39 by Q4 FY26.
16. Laminate volume growth - \~10% in FY24 Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided FY24 laminate volume growth of around 10% only. FY24 laminate volumes were 29.08 lakh sheets, up 0.89% YoY, well below the guided growth.
17. Volume growth - 7-10% over next three quarters (FY24) Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said it will "definitely strive" for at least 7% to 10% increase in volume over the next three quarters. Q2 FY24 MDF volumes rose 11.2% YoY to 60,413 CBM, Q3 FY24 rose 15% to 65,896 CBM, and Q4 FY24 rose 13% to 74,982 CBM, exceeding the target in all three quarters.
18. Laminate EBITDA margin - \~10% in FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management planned laminate EBITDA margin around 10% for the coming fiscal, later expecting 8-9% at Q1 FY24. FY24 laminate EBITDA margin was 10.04%, achieving the target.
19. MDF EBITDA margin - \~20% in FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management planned MDF EBITDA margin around 20% for the coming fiscal, reaffirming 19-20% at Q1 FY24. FY24 MDF EBITDA margin was 16.16%, below the guided range.
20. Value-added products - at least 40% in FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management targeted value-added products to reach at least 40% of MDF in FY24, later raised to 55% in value terms by Q4 FY24 and 50% of volumes by FY25. FY24 value-added was 42% quantity / 50% value, achieving the volume target.
21. MDF capacity utilisation - 90-95% over next two years Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management targeted \~90-95% MDF capacity utilisation over the next two financial years, with later restatements of 90-95% for FY25, 95% for FY25 and 90% across FY27. Utilisation was 77% in FY24, peaked at 87% in FY25, fell to 75% in FY26 and 66% in Q1 FY27.
22. MDF export volumes - 4,000 CBM per month Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management targeted exports of 4,000 CBM per month, around 48,000-50,000 CBM per year, with later targets of 5,000-6,000 CBM/month, 5,000 CBM/month and \~7,000 CBM/month. FY24 exports were 61,716 CBM, but exports fell to 10% of volume in FY26 and only 255 CBM in Q1 FY27.
23. FY24 revenue growth - 15-20% Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, the CFO guided "15%, 20% growth in terms of revenue is definitely there" for FY24, reiterated at Q4 FY23. FY24 revenue was ₹844 crore, up 0.66% YoY, far below the guided growth.
24. FY23 EBITDA margin - maintain throughout the year Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management committed to maintain EBITDA margins throughout FY23 and possibly increase them, with the CFO at Q3 FY23 committing to maintain the nine-month \~26% level. Margins declined from 22.55% in Q1 FY23 and 23.17% in Q2 to 18.1% in Q3 and 13.2% in Q4.
25. New laminates plant - ₹100 crore plus revenue potential Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided revenue potential from the new laminates plant at "Rs. 100 crores plus", raised to ₹160-180 crore by FY26, then cut to ₹100-125 crore, \~₹90 crore, \~₹30 crore and ₹20-25 crore for Q4 FY26 alone. Q3 FY26 Jumbo revenue was ₹6.27 crore and Q1 FY27 was ₹11 crore; the potential remains unrealised.
26. New laminates plant - ₹60 crore capex, operational Q1 FY25 Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management announced a Greenfield laminates unit in Gujarat with estimated CAPEX of Rs. 60 crores for 0.12 crore sheets per annum, expected operational in Q1 FY25, later revised to ₹90 crore, 0.25-0.3 crore sheets and Q2 FY25, then Q3 FY25 and end of Q4 FY25. Phase 1 began commercial production in April 2025 and Phase 2 in December 2025, reaching 0.28 crore sheets p.a. - the original deadline was missed, revised ones roughly met.
27. Debt reduction - at least ₹50 crore in FY23 Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management committed to reduce debt by at least INR 50 crore during FY23, later linking the March rights issue to at least ₹100 crores of reduction versus March 2022. INR 38 crores of secured debt was repaid in FY23, below the ₹50 crore target, though the rights issue reduced promoter loans by ₹55 crore.
28. Rights issue - ₹200 crore for debt reduction Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, the Board approved fund raising of up to INR 200 crore via rights issue to reduce debt, later filed at ₹124 crores with proceeds of ₹107 crores. The rights issue completed in Q1 FY24, raising INR 107.49 crores; INR 55 crores of promoter loans was reduced and net debt-to-equity fell from 1.71 to 0.65.
29. FY23 EBITDA margin - 20-21% overall Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided FY23 overall EBITDA margin "should be in the range of 20 - 21". FY23 EBITDA margin was 17.82%, below the guided range.
30. FY23 capex - ₹20-25 crore max Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided FY23 total capex including maintenance to "in the range of INR 20 - 25 Crore max", with H2 FY23 then expected at \~₹10 crores after H1 ran at \~₹50+ crores. H1 FY23 capex alone was \~₹50+ crores, double the full-year ceiling.
31. FY23 revenue - ₹800-900 crore achievable Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said the FY23 top line of INR 800-900 crore is "achievable" per the internal budget. FY23 revenue was ₹838.4 crore, within the guided range.
32. FY23 positive operating cash flow Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, the CFO stated next year (FY23) the company "will have some positive cash flow. That is for sure" from operations. Debt was reduced by ₹38 crores in FY23 and no contrary disclosure exists in our notes, indicating positive operating cash flow.
33. Raw material price pass-through - no choice but to pass on Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said any raw-material price increase "we have to pass on the customer. So, we do not have any choice.". The company took three MDF hikes totalling 17-18% in Q3 FY22 and 5% on laminates in Q4 FY22, with FY22 totals of 18-20% in MDF and \~15-20% in laminates, plus 15% MDF and 10% laminate hikes effective April 2026.
34. German loan - no prepayment, repay from regular cash flow Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management committed to NOT prepaying the German loan (0.85% p.a.), repaying from regular cash inflow, reiterated at Q4 FY22. The loan remained outstanding through FY23-FY26 and no prepayment is recorded; the separate USD loan of $10 million was converted to INR at Q4 FY24.
35. No new MDF capex - stabilise AP plant first Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management stated no new MDF CAPEX is being decided now - the AP plant was to be stabilised first, with a decision flagged for 6 months to 1 year at Q1 FY23. No new MDF capacity was announced through FY26 and capacity remained 3.3 lakh CBM p.a..
36. AP MDF realisation - ₹24,000-25,000/CBM in Q4 FY22 Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said ramping AP realisation to 24,000-25,000/CBM in Q4 is possible. Q4 FY22 AP average realisation was \~INR 24,800, within the guided band.
37. Value-added product share - 50% by FY23 Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management targeted reaching 50% value-added product share "possibly by next financial year" (FY23), revised to 40-50% of volume in FY23 and then 40% with ambition to 60-70%. FY23 value-added products were 36% of MDF revenue and 27% of volume, below the target.
38. Combined MDF utilisation - 75% target for FY23 Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management targeted 75% combined utilisation across both MDF plants for FY23, later set at 75% plus for AP with Chikmagalur at 95-100%, and AP raised to 80-85%. FY23 combined utilisation surpassed 75%, with AP at 72% and Chikmagalur nearly 82%.
39. Combined MDF utilisation - 75-80% in FY22 Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided combined utilisation of "more or less 75% to 80% from the both plants". Q4 FY22 combined utilisation was \~79%, but the FY22 full-year average - Chikmagalur 76%, Vizag 56% - was below 75% after the Q3 shutdown and Vizag ramp-up.
40. Chikmagalur shutdown - \~45 days, ₹15-20 crore turnover loss Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided a \~45-day Chikmagalur shutdown with an estimated ₹15-20 crore turnover loss. The shutdown lasted more than 54 days, and management estimated revenue loss of more than INR 30 crore.
41. Debt prepayment - scheduled repayment from December 2021 and June 2022 Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management said the debt prepayment schedule is in place: one loan repayment starts from December and another from June onwards, later normalised to a 7-year term-loan schedule. Debt fell from \~₹400 crore in Q2 FY22 to \~₹286 crore by start of FY23 and ₹254 crore by March 2026.
42. MDF price increase - 5-10% effective November 2021 Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management said the MDF price increase of around 5% to 10% incremental value will be effective from November onwards. In Q3 FY22 three MDF increases totalling 17-18% were given - 6-8% on 1st October, 6% on 9th October and \~7% on 13th November - implementing the November hike and exceeding the range cumulatively.
43. Chikmagalur MDF plant - 80-90% utilisation throughout FY22 Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the Karnataka plant will operate at 80% to 90% capacity throughout the time. Chikmagalur ran at 80-85% in Q2 FY22, was shut 54 days in Q3, hit 105% in Q4, and closed FY22 at 76% average - the Q3 shutdown pulled the full year below target.
44. Vizag MDF plant - 80% average utilisation from FY23 Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the Vizag plant will have to operate on an average 80% capacity from financial year 2023, later set at 75% plus, then 75-80%, then 80-85% for FY23. FY23 AP utilisation was 72%, reaching \~78% in Q4 FY23 - the 80% average was not achieved.
45. MDF realisation - maintain \~Rs. 24,000/CBM Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said the \~Rs. 24,000/CBM MDF realisation level "will have to maintain" going forward, later guided as ending within around Rs. 22,000 per CBM subject to raw material costs. Blended realisation stayed in range - Rs. 24,741 in Q1 FY22, Rs. 27,410 in Q4 FY22, Rs. 24,225 in FY23-FY24 and Rs. 25,362 in FY26.
46. MDF EBITDA margin - 15-16% at 60-70% utilisation Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management expected MDF EBITDA margin to jump from \~13% to 15-16% at 60-70% utilisation of the new plant, later guided to 16-17% with scale. FY23 MDF EBITDA margin reached 21.62%, with Q1 FY23 at 27.45% and Q2 FY23 at 29.33%, exceeding the target above 70% utilisation.
47. MDF business - \~Rs. 300-350 crores additional revenue in FY22 Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided \~Rs. 300-350 crores of additional revenue in FY22 from the MDF business at \~50% utilisation of the added 800 CBM/day capacity, almost doubling topline. FY22 MDF board revenue was ₹434 crores, with the Vizag plant adding \~INR 250 crore of additional turnover, below the guided range.
48. Vizag MDF plant - no new debt for utilisation ramp-up Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management committed to no new debt or incremental financing for raising utilisation to 60-70%: "Debt is not required. We will not be increasing any debt in the company.". Debt stood at Rs. 400 crores in Q2 FY22 and Rs. 406 crores as of March 2023, then fell to Rs. 317 crores by June 2023, aided by a Rs. 107.49 crore rights issue for debt reduction, with net debt at Rs. 254 crores by March 2026 and no ramp-up borrowing on record.
49. Vizag MDF plant - 50% utilisation by FY22, 70% sustained to March 2022 Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management firmly expected the new Vizag MDF plant to move beyond 50% utilisation with 70% sustained at least up to March 2022, later raising the expectation to closing FY22 over 75%. Utilisation was \~50% in Q1 FY22, 55% in Q2, \~80% in Q3 and 68.95% in Q4 - the 50% and 70% targets were achieved within the horizon, though FY22 averaged 56%.