1. FY29 full value-chain integration - Ingots/Wafers 6 GW, Cell 6 GW, Module 8.8 GW, Encapsulant 5 GW On track - In the Q4 FY26 PPT, management set FY29 integration targets: Ingots and Wafers 6 GW, Cell 6 GW, Module 8.8 GW, Encapsulant 5 GW. As of Q1 FY27, Module 4.8 GW is live, Cell is under construction, Encapsulant 2 GW live, and Ingots/Wafers are planned.
2. Transformer business - ₹1,000-1,500 crore in 3-4 years, 8-10% market share On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management targeted 8-10% transformer market share and a ₹1,000-1,500 crore business in the next 3-4 years. The Melcon acquisition completed mid-Q1 FY27, in a market of \~₹30,000 crore; no revenue contribution disclosed yet.
3. Net debt peak - approximately ₹2,200-2,400 crore On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided net debt to peak at approximately ₹2,200-2,400 crore. Q1 FY27 debt was \~₹1,250 crore with debt-to-equity 0.99; reported financials show total debt of ₹881 crore as of the latest reported quarter.
4. FY27 sales guidance - 3.5-4 GW, revenue \~₹6,000 crore, EBITDA \~12%, PAT margin \~6-7% On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management reiterated FY27 guidance of 3.5-4 GW sales, revenue around ₹6,000 crore, EBITDA \~12% and PAT margin \~6-7%. Q1 FY27 delivered 334 MW, ₹511 crore revenue, 8.33% EBITDA and 1.05% PAT margin.
5. On-Grid Solar-Kits - launch "soon" Delivered - In the Q4 FY26 PPT, management said On-Grid Solar-Kits for residential and small commercial applications "will be launched soon". In Q1 FY27, the Saatvik SuryaConnect Solar Kit and UDAY Plus Hybrid Inverter were launched.
6. Debt-equity ratio - maintain between 1 and 1.5x Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided debt-equity to remain between 1 and 1.5x, "not more than that"; at Q2 FY26 it was 1.2 to 1.3 including cell plant capex. Q1 FY27 debt-to-equity was 0.99, within the guided range.
7. Encapsulant capacity - expansion from 2 GW to 5 GW On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided the encapsulant roadmap expanding from 2 GW to 5 GW, and at Q1 FY27 said an announcement was expected next quarter with upscaling "in the next few months". The 2 GW EPE facility at Ambala is commissioned and operational; no 5 GW expansion completed yet.
8. IPO proceeds deployment - ₹477.23 crore to 4 GW Odisha module facility On track - Monitoring agency reports allocated IPO Net Proceeds of ₹477.23 crore (excluding GST) to SSIPL for capex on the 4 GW Odisha module facility. Reports of Nov 2025, May 2026 and Aug 2026 show no revision to utilization, and the Odisha module line is in trial runs.
9. FY26 capacity utilization - over 84% Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management stated the company was "well on track to achieve our yearly targets" for FY26; Q3 FY26 utilization was 81% and \~82% for 9M. FY26 capacity utilization closed at 84.07%, achieving the "over 84%" target.
10. FY27 module capacity - 8.8 GW (4.8 GW existing + 4 GW Odisha) On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided from 4.8 GW to 8.8 GW next year with the 4 GW module start; the Q4 FY26 PPT set 8.8 GW by FY27. In Q1 FY27, 4.8 GW was operational at Ambala and the Odisha 4 GW line was in trial runs, not yet ramped.
11. FY27 revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth - "over 100% growth" defended Missed - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said "we will try to defend these numbers for the year" for over 100% growth and expected similar growth next year. Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹511 crore, -44% YoY, and PAT ₹5.4 crore, -95% YoY; the FY27 guidance of ₹6,000 crore revenue implies \~32% growth, not 100%.
12. Non-module business - 15% of sales in next couple of years On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management targeted making non-module business 15% of sales "trying to achieve in the next couple of years"; at Q1 FY27 this was restated as 7-8% target, 10% this year, 15% by next year. Q1 FY27 non-module/non-cell revenue was 4-5%; FY26 solar pump was \~1% and EPC \~3-4% of top line.
13. Odisha total capex (4 GW module + 2.4 GW cell) - ₹1,850 crore fully deployed by H2 FY27 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management confirmed ₹1,850 crore of capex for the 4 GW module plus 2.4 GW cell in Odisha would be fully deployed by end of FY27/H2 FY27. As of Q1 FY27, \~₹1,000 crore was incurred against the \~₹1,850 crore Phase 1 total, leaving \~₹850 crore.
14. Odisha cell Phase 2 - additional 2.4 GW, \~6-9 months after Phase 1 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided cell phase 2, an additional 2.4 GW, \~6-9 months after phase 1 with revenue from Q1/Q2 FY28. It was later upsized to 3.6 GW with completion targeted by end of FY28 and readiness by Q2 FY28. An MoU with IPICOL for 3.6 GW Phase II at Gopalpur was signed; no site activity yet as of Aug 2026.
15. Odisha 2.4 GW cell line (Phase 1) - commercial production from H2 FY27 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided 2.4 GW cell phase 1 revenue from H2 FY27, with commercial production around October 2026; Q1 FY27 brought ALMM inspection planning for September 2026 and production hoped by Q3 FY27. As of Aug 2026, tool move-in and installation have commenced and ALMM-II inspection is planned for September 2026; no cell production yet.
16. Odisha 4 GW module line - commissioning by Q4 FY26, revenue from Q1 FY27 Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided the Odisha 4 GW module line phase one commissioning by Q4 FY26 with revenues from the beginning of FY27, later refined to commissioning "around March of '26" and ramp-up starting by August 2026 end. As of Q1 FY27, tool installation was complete with trial runs underway and no Odisha module revenue yet.
17. Medium-term market share - 7-10% of Indian solar-module market by end of 2026 Partial - In the FY25 annual report, management set a medium-term ambition to capture 7-10% share of the Indian solar-module market by end of 2026. India installed \~55-57 GW DC in FY26 and company FY26 sales were 3,138 MW, implying \~5.5-5.7% share; no explicit market-share disclosure was made.
18. FY26 H1:H2 sales proportion - 33%/66% Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said sales were expected in the same H1:H2 proportion as last year, 33%/66%, and that the company was "on track to achieve our projected numbers". H1 FY26 sales were 1,138 MW against FY26 total sales of 3,138 MW, a 36:64 split, closely matching guidance.
19. FY26 module sales volume - \~1 GW per quarter in Q3/Q4 Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management endorsed the analyst assumption of \~1 GW per quarter module production/sales in Q3 and Q4 FY26. Q3 FY26 sales were 920 MW and Q4 FY26 sales 1,050 MW - Q3 below 1 GW, Q4 above.
20. Solar pump division - scale to \~₹50 crore in FY27 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, on whether the solar pump division could scale to \~₹50 crore in FY27, management said "Difficult to give a number, but yes, the expectations are reasonable". FY26 pump revenue reached ₹47.2 crore, up from ₹2.5 crore in FY25, with management noting pump projects were \~₹50 crore, \~1% of FY26 top line; the FY27 outcome is not yet reportable.
21. FY26 tax rate - 18-20% Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided an average tax rate of 18-20% for FY26. FY26 PAT of ₹357.1 crore on PBT of approximately ₹460-480 crore implies an effective tax rate of \~22-25%; no explicit tax rate disclosure appears in the notes.
22. FY26 EBITDA margin - "similar range" to \~16.5% Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided FY26 EBITDA margin "in the similar range" to last year's \~16.5%; at Q3 FY26 they reiterated "13% EBITDA is a realistic expectation for the year" with year-to-date at 16%. FY26 EBITDA margin closed at 12.78%, below both guided levels.
23. FY26 revenue growth - "around same range" as \~88% CAGR Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided FY26 revenue growth "in around the same, similar kind of range" as the \~88% CAGR of recent years. FY26 revenue was ₹4,548.4 crore, +111% YoY, exceeding the guided floor.