1. FY27 debt - no increase targeted On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management aimed for debt levels not to increase in '26-'27. Q1 FY27 gross debt was ₹21,729 cr, almost same as 1 March 2026 (₹21,663 cr), and further down to ₹21,400 cr as of call date.
2. VRS scheme - headcount reduction of 500-1,000 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call (May 2026), management said it had taken out a VRS scheme aiming at reducing headcount by 500 to 1,000. The \~3,400 FY26 reduction to 49,752 predates the scheme and is attributed to normal separations; by Q1 FY27 the scheme is on with many employees taking VRS, but no evidence yet confirms the 500-1,000 target has been delivered.
3. Bhilai expansion - \~0.35 cr tonnes, \~₹30,000 cr On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management detailed a Bhilai expansion of \~0.35 cr tonnes at \~₹30,000 cr. The expansion is just being cleared, with the majority of expenditures from '28-'29.
4. Bokaro expansion - \~0.3 cr tonnes, \~₹18,000 cr On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management detailed a Bokaro expansion of \~0.3 cr tonnes at \~₹18,000 cr. The Bokaro expansion is at Stage-1 approval, with the DPR under examination.
5. FY28 capex - in excess of ₹20,000 cr Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY28 capex in excess of ₹20,000 cr, later quantified as \~₹18,000-19,000 cr; at the Q1 FY27 call this was revised to in excess of ₹20,000 cr for FY28 and \~₹25,000-26,000 cr thereafter. No FY28 outcome yet.
6. FY27 interest cost reduction - \~₹500 cr in Q4 FY26 Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management expected another \~₹500 cr reduction in interest cost in Q4 FY26, taking the full-year reduction to \~₹1,000 cr. FY26 cost of borrowings fell from 7.3% to 6.2%; Q1 FY27 cost of debt was 6.24% vs \~6.8% last year Q1, saving \~₹100 cr in finance cost vs the previous quarter.
7. FY27-28 volumes - 2.3 cr tonnes hot metal, 2.15 cr tonnes saleable steel Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided FY28 volumes of 2.3 cr tonnes hot metal and 2.15 cr tonnes saleable steel, ex-NSL. No FY28 outcome yet; FY27 targets were set at 2.25 cr tonnes crude steel and 2.2 cr tonnes sales.
8. AMR schemes - ₹23,479 cr investment commitment Pending - In the FY25 annual report, SAIL undertook AMR schemes across major steel plants in FY 2024-25 with an investment commitment of approximately ₹23,479 cr. Projects worth around ₹1,069 cr were completed during FY 2024-25; no aggregate spend figure against the full commitment is disclosed in our record.
9. Tasra Coal Project - 4 MTPA opencast mine On track - In the FY25 annual report, the Tasra Coal Project was being developed as a 4 MTPA opencast mine, with the MDO to construct a washery within three years and ramp up to 4 MTPA from the fifth year onwards. By March 2025, Environmental Clearance and Consent to Establish were granted for a 3.5 MTPA washery and land acquisition was substantially advanced; production is expected to start December 2026.
10. Gua Mine expansion - 4 MTPA to 10 MTPA On track - In the FY25 annual report, SAIL planned to expand Gua Mine capacity from 4 MTPA to 10 MTPA with beneficiation, pelletization and railway sidings. The NIT for MDO for the Gua Mine expansion was issued on 22 July 2025, with a consultant preparing tender specifications.
11. FY27 cost reduction - ₹2,000-3,000 per tonne On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management targeted a cost reduction of \~₹2,000-3,000 per tonne in FY27. Q1 FY27 EBITDA per tonne was ₹10,464, crossing the ₹10,000 benchmark; no explicit FY27 cost-reduction figure is disclosed yet.
12. Durgapur TMT bar mill - production by September-December 2027 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided the Durgapur TMT bar mill to produce \~0.08-0.09 cr tonnes of TMT, expected sometime in 2027, maybe September to December 2027. Ground activity started with completion in \~18 months as of Q3 FY26, and the order was placed with ground activities started as of Q4 FY26.
13. FY27 iron ore sales - 0.8 cr tonnes target On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management targeted 0.8 cr tonnes of captive iron ore sales for FY27, versus \~0.35 cr tonnes sold last year. Q1 FY27 captive iron ore sales were 0.11 cr tonnes vs 0.03 cr tonnes last year Q1; the sub-grade fines auction target for FY27 is 0.3 cr tonnes.
14. FY27 iron ore production - 5.6 cr tonnes On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management targeted iron ore production of 5.6 cr tonnes for FY27, with ramp-up to 8 cr tonnes going forward. Q1 FY27 iron ore mined was 10.410 MT; captive iron ore sales in Q1 FY27 were 0.11 cr tonnes vs 0.03 cr tonnes last year Q1.
15. FY27 crude steel production - 2.25 cr tonnes On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management targeted FY27 crude steel production of 2.25 cr tonnes (including 0.06 cr tonnes RINL). Q1 FY27 crude steel production was 0.48 cr tonnes vs 0.49 cr tonnes CPLY, with capital repairs advanced into Q1 by design.
16. FY27 sales volume - 2.2 cr tonnes On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management targeted FY27 sales volume of 2.2 cr tonnes, \~10% above FY26's \~2 cr tonnes, excluding RINL/NSL/NMDC volumes; full-year volume guidance was maintained at the Q1 FY27 call. Q1 FY27 sales volume was 0.42 cr tonnes, down 7-8% YoY.
17. FY27 capex - ₹15,000 cr On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided FY27 capex of ₹15,000 cr; this was reiterated at the Q4 FY26 call and at Q1 FY27 as "likely to complete". Q1 FY27 capex spend was ₹2,575 cr against a Q1 target of ₹2,306 cr.
18. FY26 EBITDA margin - 14-15% in Q4 Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided EBITDA margin to improve towards 14-15% in Q4 FY26. Q4 FY26 EBITDA margin was 15.6% (EBITDA ₹4,762 cr on sales turnover ₹30,541 cr); Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin was 16.7%.
19. FY26 debt-equity ratio - 0.3-0.4 by year-end Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management targeted reducing non-IndAS D/E from \~0.46 to 0.3-0.4 by FY26 year-end. Non-IndAS D/E was 0.37 at March 2026.
20. FY26 sales volume - 1.85 cr tonnes (SAIL production, ex-NMDC) Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided full-year FY26 sales volume of \~1.85 cr tonnes excluding NMDC volumes; this was reiterated at Q2 FY26, and at Q3 FY26 framed as \~1.95 cr tonnes including NSL, ex-NSL \~18.5. FY26 total sales volume was 1.99 cr tonnes, including NSL 0.11 cr tonnes; ex-NSL own sales were \~1.88 cr tonnes.
21. FY26 capex - ₹7,500 cr Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management targeted capex of ₹7,500 cr for FY26, "we are confident that we'll be able to achieve that"; this was revised to "in excess of ₹7,500 cr" at Q2 FY26, between ₹7,500 cr and ₹10,000 cr at Q3 FY26, and a ₹10,000 cr target at Q4 FY26. FY26 capex achieved \~₹9,100 cr; 9M FY26 capex was ₹5,428 cr.
22. Durgapur BF-3 revamp - completion \~18 months from order Pending - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided Durgapur BF-3 revamp completion \~18 months from placement of order. Q2 FY26 noted the Durgapur rebar mill order placed with ground activities started and blast furnace orders being finalized; Q3 FY26 put the DSP TMT mill debottlenecking at 18-20 months. No specific BF-3 revamp completion is disclosed in our record.
23. Rourkela casters - completion in 2 years Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management targeted the Rourkela casters for completion "2 years down the line". RSP Caster No. 4 debottlenecking was completed with production already started by Q3 FY26.
24. Coke rate - 440 kg target for FY25 Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management set a coke rate target of 440 kg for FY25, while cautioning "we may not be able to achieve that". FY25 coke rate was 421 kg/thm, better than the 440 kg target.
25. Semis reduction - to virtually zero in 3-3.5 years On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided the semis share in sales to come down to "virtually zero level" over \~3 to 3.5 years via conversion agents and wet leasing; at Q3 FY26 this was "only a matter of time". Semis share in production fell from \~15% in FY25 to 12.5% in Q1 FY27, and semis share in sales was \~6% in Q1 FY27; the Durgapur TMT bar mill (1 mt) is expected to reduce semis drastically once operational in 2027.
26. Value-added production - increase to 1.1 cr tonnes Pending - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided value-added production to increase from almost 0.95 cr tonne in FY24 to 1.1 cr tonne going forward. Value-added product share improved from 55% in Q1 FY26 to 57% in Q2, targeting more than 60% going forward; finished steel share was up from 86% to 89% in Q1 FY27. No specific 1.1 cr tonne figure is disclosed in our record.
27. FY25 employee cost - ₹11,000-11,500 cr Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 employee cost of ₹11,000-11,500 cr. FY25 employee remuneration in P&L was ₹11,392 cr; the Q4 FY25 call noted a quarterly run-rate of \~₹2,900 cr.
28. FY25 production and sales - in excess of 2 cr tonnes production Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 production "in excess of 2 cr tonnes" and sales of 9 cr tonnes (as transcribed; includes sale of inventory); this was revised to crude steel \~2.09 cr tonnes and sales \~1.93 cr tonnes at Q1 FY25, sales "around 18" at Q2 FY25, and crude \~18.5 mt, sales \~17.5 mt at Q3 FY25. FY25 crude steel production was 1.92 cr tonnes and sales volume 1.79 cr tonnes.
29. FY25 borrowings - below ₹30,000 cr by March 2025 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided borrowings below ₹30,000 cr by end of March 2025; this was revised to net debt at least ₹30,000 cr by year-end at Q1 FY25, ₹29,000-30,000 cr at Q2 FY25, and the 31st March 2024 level (\~₹30,500 cr) "if not less" at Q3 FY25. Borrowings closed at ₹29,811 cr (non-IndAS) on 31 March 2025.
30. FY25 capex - ₹6,300 cr Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 capex of ₹6,300 cr; this was revised to \~₹6,000 cr at Q1 FY25, \~₹6,000 cr vs the initial ₹6,300 cr at Q2 FY25, and ₹5,700 cr at Q3 FY25. FY25 capex achieved ₹5,879 cr.
31. Debt-equity ratio - cap at 1:1 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management planned to restrict the debt-equity ratio to 1:1, reiterated at Q4 FY24; at Q3 FY25 the peak might go up to 1.2 "but not beyond that", and at Q2 FY26 non-IndAS D/E was targeted to 0.3-0.4 by FY26 end. Non-IndAS D/E was 0.37 at March 2026 and 0.36 at June 2026; IndAS D/E was 0.55 at March 2026 and 0.54 at June 2026.
32. Total expansion capex - \~₹1 lakh cr over 9-10 years On track - At the Q4 FY23 call, management projected a total expansion outlay of nearly ₹1,00,000 cr over the next 9-10 years, peaking in 27-28 and 28-29; this was revised to \~₹1 lakh to ₹1,10,000 cr at Q4 FY24 and ₹1,10,000-1,20,000 cr at Q3 FY25, with Q2 FY25 noting the figures were indicative until DPRs froze. As of Q4 FY26, the first three plants carry IISCO \~₹35,000-36,000 cr, Bhilai \~₹30,000 cr and Bokaro \~₹18,000 cr; FY27 capex is guided at ₹15,000 cr, FY28 in excess of ₹20,000 cr, and ₹20,000-25,000 cr per year thereafter.
33. IISCO expansion - 0.45 cr tonnes, commissioning from 2027-28 On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided an IISCO (Burnpur) expansion of \~0.45 cr tonnes at \~₹36,000 cr, with commissioning starting 2027-28 and all facilities gradually commissioned by 2030-31; this was revised to a Stage 1 approval for a 0.4 cr tonne plant at \~₹37,000 cr at Q1 FY25, order placement for balance major packages in 1-2 months at Q2 FY26, and completion around FY30 at Q3 FY26. Major packages are tendered and majority finalized, ground activities started, and expenditures increase from '27-'28.
34. Capacity expansion to 3.5 cr tonnes by 2030-31 On track - At the Q3 FY23 call, management planned a 1.2 cr-to-13-million-ton expansion by 2030-31, starting with IISCO; at Q4 FY23 this became \~3 cr tonnes in 3-4 years via debottlenecking plus expansions, targeting \~3.5 cr tonnes by 31-32, and at Q4 FY24 the 2 cr to 3.5 cr tonnes by end of 2030-31 target was firmly reiterated. Later calls maintained the target. As of Q1 FY27, capacity remains \~2 cr tonnes; IISCO tendering has major packages ordered and ground activities begun, Bokaro and Bhilai expansions are at Stage-1 approval, and new capacity is expected online from '30-'31.
35. FY24 production and sales - 1.9 cr tonnes Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management set an FY24 production target of 1.9 cr tonnes, reiterated at Q2 FY24 with sales at the same level; sales were then expected at \~1.8-1.85 cr tonnes given \~0.1 cr tonne inventory. FY24 crude steel production was 1.92 cr tonnes and saleable steel sales 1.70 cr tonnes.
36. FY24 borrowings - ₹22,000-22,500 cr by year-end Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected borrowings to come down by \~₹4,000 cr during FY24, to ₹22,000-22,500 cr; this was revised to around ₹22,000 cr by year-end at Q2 FY24, and at Q3 FY24 the target was withdrawn, with no major reduction expected by 31 March. FY24 borrowings closed at ₹30,593 cr (non-IndAS) on 31 March 2024; total borrowings were \~₹35,000 cr on IndAS basis.
37. FY24 capex - ₹6,500-7,000 cr Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided FY24 capex of \~₹6,500-7,000 cr; this was revised to \~₹6,500 cr at Q4 FY23, ₹6,800 cr at Q1 FY24, and likely to end at ₹5,500 cr at Q2 FY24. FY24 capex achieved ₹5,646 cr.
38. FY23 production and sales - 1.7-1.75 cr tonnes production, 1.6-1.65 cr tonnes sales Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided FY23 production of \~1.7-1.75 cr tonnes and sales of \~1.6-1.65 cr tonnes. FY23 crude steel production was 1.83 cr tonnes and sales volume 1.62 cr tonnes - both best ever.
39. FY23 net debt - ₹25,000 cr by year-end Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided net debt down to \~₹25,000 cr by FY23 year-end, from ₹27,400 cr as on 30 September 2022; at Q3 FY23 this was revised to ₹24,000-25,000 cr by FY23 end. Net debt at FY23 year-end was ₹28,400 cr; borrowings closed at ₹25,662 cr on 31 March 2023.
40. FY23 capex - ₹8,000 cr target Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided capex of ₹8,000 cr for FY23 (ED Finance, firm), with each plant taking up ₹300-400 cr of local AMR schemes; management itself expressed uncertainty about achieving the figure. The full-year target was cut to \~₹6,000 cr at Q2 FY23 and \~₹5,500 cr at Q3 FY23. FY23 capex achieved ₹5,474 cr; the Q4 FY23 call confirmed FY23 capex was around ₹4,000 cr annually, largely maintenance/debottlenecking.