1. FY27 capex - 5-7% of revenues, ₹275-310 cr Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 capex limited to 5-7% of revenues, translating to ₹275-310 cr. Horizon not reached as FY27 has not yet begun.
2. Telematics - customer showcase in FY27, development cycle next year, production thereafter Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided telematics technology would be showcased to customers in FY27, enter development cycle next year, then move to production, with a technology partner locked within 12 months. Horizon not reached for the FY27 showcase and partner lock-in milestones.
3. ROCE target - 15% post-tax going to 20% Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided a post-tax ROCE target starting at 15% and going to a peak of 20%, with earlier revisions citing 15-18% pre-tax and 18% post-tax for acquisitions. FY26 consolidated ROCE was 14.23% (SQL); the 15% target is not yet achieved and no hard deadline was set.
4. Double revenues every 3-4 years with consistent margin and ROI improvements Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated they expect to double revenues every three to four years with consistent improvements in margins and return on investments. Revenue doubled from ₹2,324 cr in FY22 to ₹4,852 cr in FY26, ROCE more than doubled from 6.71% to 14.23%, and OPM improved marginally from 8.87% to 9.02% (SQL).
5. FY27 revenue growth - over 15% conservative Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided over 15% growth in overall revenue for FY27, described as a conservative estimate. Horizon not reached as FY27 has not yet begun.
6. Overseas business - turnaround to profitability in FY26 Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided overseas operations would be turned around and brought into profitability in FY26, with later revisions targeting breakeven in Q4 FY26. FY26 overseas EBT was a loss of ₹26.19 cr, though Q4 FY26 breakeven was achieved.
7. Sundaram-Clayton acquisition - revenue ₹400-425 cr in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided Sundaram-Clayton acquisition revenue of \~₹400-425 cr for FY26. FY26 Sundaram-Clayton revenue was ₹369 cr, below the guided range.
8. EV revenue - 5-10% of total in next couple of years (from FY23) Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management stated EV-only powertrain products revenue could be 5-10% of total in the next couple of years. FY26 EV revenue was ₹20 cr, \~0.4% of total revenue of ₹4,852 cr, far below the 5-10% target by the FY25-FY26 horizon.
9. Overseas revenue - ₹480-500 cr in FY24 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided overseas revenue of ₹480-500 cr in FY24, expecting 25% growth with the Romania plant. FY24 overseas revenue was ₹488 cr, within the guided range.
10. No major capex in FY24; debt paydown Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided no further capex of a large degree in FY24 and that debt would be paid down, later revised to capex limited to annual depreciation of \~₹130-135 cr. FY24 capex was ₹237.22 cr and debt increased from ₹564.1 cr to ₹647.9 cr.
11. Machining business - commercial by January '23, FY24 revenue \~₹77 cr Pending - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided machining business from TVS would become commercial by January '23 with FY24 revenue of \~₹77 cr, later revised to \~₹70 cr. Mass production started by Q1 FY24 and the business was operational and profitable by Q2 FY24, but no FY24 full-year machining revenue figure is available in our record to verify the target.
12. FY24 revenue - 30% jump from new projects Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided a 30% jump in FY24 revenue from new projects, later revised to \~25% and then to close to 20%. FY24 revenue grew 21.05% (SQL); the original 30% target was missed but the revised \~20-25% range was met.
13. EV products - validation in coming months, ICAT approvals timeline Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated EV product validation would complete in the coming months, with detailed ICAT timelines set in Q2 FY23 spanning Feb '23 to Feb '24. DC controller ICAT was done by Q4 FY23, motor controller ICAT by Q4 FY24, and commercial production of battery chargers, motor controllers, and DC-DC converters began between Q1 FY25 and Q1 FY26, with most timelines slipping 2-4 quarters.
14. Smart locks for Suzuki - ₹500 cr revenue potential On track - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated the new Smart Locks order for Suzuki motorcycles had potential revenue of \~₹500 cr in its full run, with the order book later confirmed at ₹550 cr over 3 years. Production started with delays, reaching \~5,000 locksets/month by Q4 FY26; the full-run revenue horizon of 3-5 years from FY24 is not yet reached.
15. JV turnaround - all JVs EBITDA positive, clarity by Q3 FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated more than 60% of JVs had already turned around and definite clarity on JV performance would come by Q3 FY23. By Q4 FY23 all loss-making units were turned around, and by FY25 all JVs were PAT positive.
16. New capex of ₹549 cr - generate ₹2,000 cr jump in revenues Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated the new capex of ₹549 cr for 8 projects could generate a ₹2,000 cr jump in revenues based on asset turns of 3-4x. Revenue increased by ₹1,943 cr from FY23 (₹2,909 cr) to FY26 (₹4,852 cr) (SQL), but the specific contribution of the ₹549 cr programme is not cleanly isolated from organic growth and the Sundaram-Clayton acquisition.
17. Sheet metal business - triple-digit growth in FY23 Pending - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided sheet metal and allied businesses revenue growth would be in triple digits in FY23. No FY23 full-year sheet metal revenue figure is available in our record to confirm or deny the triple-digit growth claim.
18. FY23 free cash flow - \~₹240 cr cash in hand Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided free cash flow of something close to \~₹240 cr of cash in hand for FY23. FY23 cash flow from operations was ₹278.5 cr but free cash flow after capex was only ₹8.3 cr, and cash and equivalents at FYE23 were ₹12.6 cr.
19. Consolidated debt-equity ratio - not to exceed 1:1 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided consolidated debt-equity ratio would not exceed 1:1 and would be kept below 1:1. D/E has remained below 1:1 throughout, standing at 0.71 at FY26 (SQL), with earlier readings of 0.61 at FY24 and 0.72 at FY25.
20. FY23 revenue growth - over 35% conservative, \~40% possible Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided overall revenue growth over 35% for FY23 on a conservative basis, with over 40% possible, later revised to \~24% growth settling between ₹2,800-2,900 cr. FY23 revenue was ₹2,909 cr, growth of 25.18% (SQL); the original 35%+ target was missed but the revised \~24% target was met.
21. Debt peak - FY23 debt not much beyond another ₹100 cr, then reduce Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided debt next year should not go much beyond another ₹100 cr from ₹356 cr gross, and would peak and then reduce. Gross debt rose every year from ₹536.8 cr in FY22 to ₹564.1 cr in FY23, ₹647.9 cr in FY24, ₹881 cr in FY25, and ₹948 cr in FY26.
22. Optimized EBITDA margins - 12.5% to 13.5%, double-digit minimum Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided optimized EBITDA margins of 12.5-13.5% with double-digit as the minimum target, later reset to a gradual 50 bps annual improvement path targeting \~10.45% in FY25 and \~10.95% in FY26. Full-year consolidated EBITDA margin never reached 12.5%, peaking at 9.87% in FY25 and falling to 9.02% in FY26 (SQL).
23. AMKIN JV - no longer loss-making from FY23 Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided the AMKIN JV would no longer be loss-making from FY23. Sandhar Amkin became EBITDA positive overall and PAT positive on a monthly basis by Q2 FY23, with full-year FY23 PAT positive at \~₹2 cr.
24. KRA - add one new customer per year offering minimum ₹100 cr annual revenue Pending - At the Q3 FY22 call, management stated the KRA of adding one new customer per year offering a minimum of ₹100 cr of annual revenue was still very strong. No structured annual disclosure tracking this metric exists in our record to permit a binary verdict.
25. FY23 capex \~₹100 cr for expansions Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided FY23 capex of \~₹100 cr for expansions apart from regular maintenance capex, later revised upward to ₹350-400 cr and then residual capex of ₹300 cr. FY23 capex was ₹256.6 cr, far exceeding the original \~₹100 cr promise.
26. Annual capex \~₹184 cr for FY22 Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided annual capex of \~₹184 cr for FY22, with ₹134 cr done in 9 months and \~₹50 cr expected in Q4. FY22 capex was ₹297 cr, significantly higher than guided.
27. Five new plants - fully operational, \~₹780 cr revenue capacity, FY23 revenue contribution Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided five new plants were being commissioned, all fully booked from day one with total revenue capacity of \~₹780 cr and a large part of revenue appearing in FY23. Plants were commissioned with delays - Romania in December 2022, Mysore by August 2023 - and FY23 revenue from new projects was only \~₹80 cr; full ₹780 cr capacity attainment is not disclosed in our record.