1. GST impact on VONB margin - no more than 30-40 bps by year-end Missed - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided that GST impact on VONB margin, net of better product mix, would be no more than 30-40 bps by end of FY26. FY26 VoNB margin came in at 27.5%, and excluding GST would have been 29.0% - a GST impact of \~150 bps.
2. Credit life growth - 25%+ in FY26 Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided credit life growth of "25% plus... in the current year". Q1 FY26 credit life grew 25% and Q3 FY26 grew 20%, but full-year FY26 credit life grew 14%.
3. Opex ratio - stable around 6-6.5% Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided opex ratio to be "stable around this rate of 6-6.5%", and at Q4 FY26 said it would "continue to be in that range". Opex ran 6.3% in Q1 FY26, 6.2% in Q2 and Q3, and 6.1% for FY26, but spiked to 7.7% in Q1 FY27 on stamp duty and labor code impact.
4. FY26 VoNB margin - around 27-28% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected to maintain VoNB margin of around 27-28% for FY26, later refined to 26-28% with positive bias at Q1 FY26 and reiterated through Q3 FY26. FY26 VoNB margin came in at 27.5%.
5. FY26 product mix - 65% ULIP / 35% traditional Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management targeted a product mix of 65% ULIP / 35% traditional in FY26. FY26 ULIP was 65% of individual NBP, and 66:34 ULIP/non-ULIP on individual APE basis.
6. Overall growth expectation - 13-14% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management was "standing by" an overall growth expectation of 13-14%, reiterated as mid-teens at Q1 FY26 and \~13-14% individual APE growth at Q2 FY26. FY26 APE grew 13%, with individual APE also up 13%.
7. Banca growth - around 10% or low double digits going forward Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected the banca channel to grow at around 10% or low double digits going forward. FY26 banca individual APE grew 11%, and Q1 FY27 banca individual APE grew 10%.
8. FY26 agency growth - around 25% Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected agency channel growth of around 25% going forward, and at Q1 FY26 said "we continue to be bullish on agency". FY26 agency individual APE grew 15%, and Q1 FY27 grew 20%.
9. PAT growth - 10-15% YoY Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected PAT growth in the range of 10-15% YoY. FY25 PAT grew 27%, FY26 PAT grew 2% impacted by GST/labour code, and Q1 FY27 PAT grew 22%.
10. ROP-to-pure-protection mix - 60-40 by FY26-FY27 On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected the ROP-to-pure-protection mix to stabilize around 60-40 in FY26-FY27. The mix was 75:25 at Q1 FY26 and moved to ROP 68% / non-ROP 32% by Q1 FY27, with pure protection growing 52% on IRP basis that quarter.
11. Persistency improvement - continue in future Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected persistency improvement to continue in future, and at Q3 FY26 said persistency would improve by year-end. 13th month persistency rose from 87.4% in FY25 (+63 bps) to 87.9% in FY26 (+53 bps) and 87.7% in Q1 FY27 (+61 bps), though 61st month declined due to the COVID cohort.
12. SBI Life sole company offered by SBI - no change in near future Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated SBI Life will continue to be the sole company offered by SBI: "we don't foresee any change in the near future in that dynamics". At Q4 FY26 management noted the RBI draft guidelines do not talk of open architecture, and no change in the SBI relationship was disclosed in the notes.
13. Agency 2.0 program - continue for full year and medium term Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management committed to continuing the Agency 2.0 enhancement program "for the full year and in the medium term also". By Q1 FY27, more than 100 branches had been opened in the last 2-3 years under Agency 2.0 / Agency Next, with agency growing strongly in 2024, 2025 and FY26.
14. 60-40 product mix - H2 FY25 Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management committed to maintaining a 60-40 product mix (60% ULIP / 40% non-PAR, protection and PAR) in H2 FY25. Q3 FY25 ULIP was 64% of individual NBP and FY25 ULIP was 62%, with ULIP degrowing in Q4 FY25.
15. Credit life growth - 9-10% for FY25 Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided credit life growth of 9-10% for FY25. FY25 credit life grew 11% to 2,520 crore.
16. Banca (SBI) channel growth - high single digit or \~10% for FY25 Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided banca growth of high single digit or \~10% for FY25, reiterated at \~10% in Q3 FY25. FY25 banca individual APE grew 9%, with the parent bank (SBI) growing 8%.
17. Agency channel growth - \~30% for H2 FY25 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided agency channel growth of \~30% for H2 FY25, later guided at \~29-30%+ for FY25 in Q3 FY25. FY25 agency individual APE grew 23%, with Q4 FY25 agency growth at only \~4%.
18. FY25 VNB growth - 12-15% Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided VNB growth of \~12-15% for FY25, revised at Q3 FY25 to VoNB growth "around 10%". FY25 VoNB grew 7% to 5,950 crore.
19. FY25 VNB margin - 26-27% Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided VNB margin of 26-27% for FY25. FY25 VoNB margin came in at 27.8%.
20. PAR portfolio revamp - child segment products Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management said the PAR portfolio revamp was underway with child segment products planned across PAR, non-PAR and ULIP, with remaining repriced products "very soon" at Q2 FY25 and a par money back plan flagged at Q1 FY26. Q4 FY25 brought four new non-ULIP products including child plans Smart Platina Young Achiever and Smart Future Star, Smart Money Back Plus launched in Q2 FY26 and garnered 560 crore premium by Q3 FY26, and FY26 par individual APE grew 133%.
21. Digital protection product on YONO - very soon Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management said a simpler digital protection product would be offered "very soon" on SBI's YONO platform; it launched mid-September 2024. Sales scaled from 33,000+ policies in one month at Q2 FY25 to 70,000+ in 4 months at Q3 FY25 and 1.5 lakh policies in FY26 by Q3 FY26.
22. Market share - maintain and grow Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected to maintain and grow market share versus the previous year. Private market share fell from 24.6% in FY24 to 20.8% in FY25 (individual NBP share 25.8% to 25.3%), recovered to 21.4% in FY26, and was 20.5% in Q1 FY27.
23. Group savings cap - 18-20% of total NBP Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management reiterated a self-imposed cap on group savings business: "principally we have been restricting our this number between around 18% to 20% of my total NBP". Group NBP was 38% of NBP in FY24, 26% in FY25, 30% in FY26 and 37% in Q1 FY27.
24. Surrender value regulation - no significant impact on margin Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management said it did not expect "significant or material impact" on VoNB margin from the draft surrender value regulation, calling the impact "very minimal" at Q1 FY25 and sticking to 26-27% at Q2 FY25. FY25 VoNB margin was 27.8% vs 28.1% in FY24, with the company first to relaunch products from mid-September 2024 and margin confirmed in the same range.
25. FY25 APE growth - around 15% Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided APE growth of "around 15%" for FY25, reiterated as "higher teens to 20%" at Q1 FY25, \~15-16% at Q2 FY25, then revised to \~10-11% total APE growth at Q3 FY25. FY25 APE grew 9% to 21,420 crore, with individual APE up 13%.
26. New banca partnerships - inform market when onboarded Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said discussions for new banca partnerships were ongoing and it would inform the market when a new partner was onboarded. A corporate agency agreement with Karur Vysya Bank was signed in Q4 FY23, and a new tie-up with J&K Bank was entered in Q1 FY27.
27. Hedging - all non-par guaranteed products hedged Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management committed that all non-par guaranteed savings products are hedged with appropriate ALM positions and would keep writing as long as hedging is available. Earlier notes confirm the practice: majority of expected premium inflows hedged per Board-approved policy at Q1 FY23, book properly hedged at Q2 FY23, and sufficient hedge coverage per company policy at Q3 FY23, with no evidence of an unhedged non-par book later.
28. Commission structure - no changes planned Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management stated no commission restructuring was planned for any channel, reaffirmed at Q3 FY24 ("not going into any commission enhancement"), Q4 FY24 ("we don't play the commission game") and Q2 FY25. The Q3 FY24 first-year commission ratio rose to \~14% from \~12.4% due to product mix shift, not rate changes, and no changes were made through Q2 FY26.
29. Rider portfolio review - boost protection and savings Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said it was working on a comprehensive review of the rider portfolio to boost protection and savings sales, with an extender rider set for August at Q1 FY25 and riders extended to existing policyholders from 1st October per Q3 FY26. Protection riders launched by Q3 FY25 with encouraging attachment, and attachment rates improved from \~40% at Q1 FY26 and 35-40% at Q3 FY26 to \~50% in Q1 FY27, when rider sum assured was 39% of individual sum assured.
30. Agency leadership - maintain undisputed position Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said the aim was to maintain undisputed agency leadership among private players through capacity building. FY24 agency NBP grew 22% as the largest agency in the private sector, followed by FY25 agency individual NBP +28%, FY26 +15% and Q1 FY27 +20%.
31. Persistency normalization - within next quarter Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said on 13th/25th month persistency dips, "you will see within the next quarter, all these things normalizing". 13th month persistency improved from 85.1% in Q1 FY24 to 85.4% in Q2 FY24, 85.3% in Q3 FY24 and 86.8% by Q4 FY24.
32. Agency channel structural changes - results visible over next 3 quarters Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said results of structural changes in the agency channel would be visible over the next 3 quarters, with results visible in Q2 itself. Q2 FY24 agency NBP grew 35%, 9M FY24 agency NBP grew 21%, and FY24 agency NBP grew 22%, with management noting the trend was "as per our earlier guidance".
33. Protection focus - continued going forward Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management committed to continued focus on protection going forward, reaffirmed through Q4 FY24, Q1 FY25 (higher non-medical limits, simplified medical procedures), Q3 FY25 (a focus for FY26-FY27) and Q1 FY27 (pure protection over ROP). FY24 protection NBP grew 15% to 4,170 crore, FY25 was 4,100 crore (-2%), FY26 protection APE grew 10% to 2,240 crore with individual protection up 24%, and Q1 FY27 individual protection APE grew 18% with pure protection up 41%.
34. FY24 VNB margin - around 28-30% Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided VNB margins to stay around current levels: "it could be 29, it could be 30", reiterated at 28-30% through Q1-Q3 FY24. FY24 VoNB margin came in at 28.1%.
35. VNB growth - track 20-25% APE growth in FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, when asked whether VNB would track the 20-25% APE growth, the CEO replied "Obviously… VNB is going to be there". FY24 VoNB grew 9% to 5,550 crore while APE grew 17%.
36. FY24 APE growth - 20% to 25% Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided 20% to 25% growth (APE) for FY24, reiterated at Q1 FY24 ("20% is definitely what we would expect") and revised at Q2 FY24 to "range bound between 19% to 20%". FY24 APE grew 17% to 19,720 crore, with individual APE up 13%.
37. EV/assumption disclosures - published at end of FY23 Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said EV/assumption-related disclosures (AOM, MTM impact) would be published at the end of the financial year March 2023. FY23 results included embedded value of 46,040 crore, operating ROEV of 22.8% and economic variance of \~2,418 crore, with the FY23 Annual Report published 4th August 2023.
38. SBI branch productivity - bridge gap with leading private competitors Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said SBI per-branch productivity (just under 40 lakhs) was lower than leading private competitors and "we hope to bridge that gap over years", expecting productivity to rise at Q3 FY23. SBI branch productivity moved from 40 lakhs (Q2 FY23) to 62 lakhs (Q3 FY23), 67 lakhs (FY24), 54 lakhs (FY25) and 60 lakhs (FY26), but dipped to 41 lakhs in Q1 FY27, with the gap not explicitly closed.
39. Agent productivity and net agent addition - targeting much higher Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said agent productivity (\~2.5 lakhs per agent) could go higher and it was targeting much higher net agent addition than the 32,000 achieved, with subsequent agency growth targets of \~43% on IRP basis, \~30% for H2 FY25 and \~25% going forward. FY23 net addition was 62,717 agents and FY24 37,304, FY25 gross addition was 97,500 (net marginally negative) and FY26 gross addition 1,20,000+, while productivity improved from 2.5 lakhs to 3 lakhs by Q3 FY26.
40. Non-SBI banca contribution - should go way up Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said non-SBI banca contribution (then 3% of business) "should go way up" over time, with \~50% growth "for some more time" at Q3 FY23 and an aspiration of "plus 20% in any case" at Q1 FY24. Non-SBI partnerships contributed 3% of individual NBP in FY23, other channels' share rose to 31% from 21% in FY24, and non-SBI banks grew 24% on total APE in Q3 FY26 and 31% in Q1 FY27, though contribution remained \~3% of individual APE through FY26.
41. Credit life attachment rate - much higher than 50% Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said it would like to take credit life attachment rates "much higher" than the 50% achieved in FY22, with higher targets set for Smart Family Protect, and at Q1 FY26 guided credit life growth of 25%+ in FY26. Attachment stayed \~50% through FY26 (52% on home loans at Q3 FY26), credit life grew 9% in FY24, 11% in FY25 and 14% in FY26, and credit protect was flat YoY in Q1 FY27.
42. Non-par repricing - maintain spread with interest-rate movement Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management committed to actively repricing non-par products with interest-rate movement to maintain the spread, keeping a close watch at Q2 FY23 and confirming at Q4 FY25 that rate cuts would not adversely impact margins. Non-par products were repriced 3 times over 9 months in FY24, relaunched in August 2024, drove margin gains in Q1 FY26, a new product launched in January FY26 reflecting current yields, and customer IRR improved in June FY27 in line with the yield curve.
43. Yono platform - good jump in ILS this year Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said it had taken "good targets" to further ILS on the Yono platform and was "expecting good jump as far as the Yono platform is concerned" in FY23, later adding a digital protection product "very soon" and expecting YONO to add growth. YONO term insurance covered 2.3 lakh lives in Q1 FY24, sold 33,000+ policies in one month at Q2 FY25, 70,000+ in 4 months at Q3 FY25, 1.5 lakh policies in FY26, and 22k+ new lives in Q1 FY27.
44. Branch expansion - 30-40 branches every year Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said it would continue branch expansion, adding about 30-40 branches every year, which it called very sustainable. FY25 saw 70 new branches (1,110 offices) and FY26 saw 120 new branches (1,230 offices), with 11 more added in Q1 FY27 to reach 1,241 offices.
45. ULIP mix - settle around 55% for FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management expected ULIP to settle at around 55% of mix for FY23, "somewhere around 50% to 60%", ideally 55-60%, later looking at "about 60% around" at Q3 FY23 and setting yearly targets of 55:45, 60-40, 65:35 and \~62:38 in subsequent years. FY23 ULIP was 53% of individual NBP, then 58% (FY24), 62% (FY25), 65% (FY26) and 61% in Q1 FY27.
46. Non-par guaranteed share of APE - around 25-30% for FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, the CEO stated his "own intuition" that non-par guaranteed share of APE would stay around 25-30% for FY23 with no internal limit set, later expecting around 24-25% going forward at Q1 FY24. FY23 non-par guaranteed contributed 24% of individual APE, then 22% (Q1 FY24), 19% (FY24), 20% (FY25) and 19% (FY26).
47. FY23 APE growth - similar to FY22's \~25% Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management targeted FY23 growth "of the kind that we have witnessed in this year" (similar to FY22's \~25% APE growth), acknowledging base effect, then targeted "about 25 plus percent" premium growth at Q1 FY23 and reiterated 20-25% on APE basis at Q2 FY23. FY23 APE grew 18% to 16,810 crore, with management scorekeeping "we ended up with slightly less than 20%" versus prior expectation.
48. Operating ROEV - scope for further improvement from \~20% Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said operating ROEV had historically been "in the range of 20%" and, if positive variances played out, "there is a scope for further improvement from the current level" versus the 20.6% reported. Operating ROEV improved to 22.8% in FY23 and 21.8% in FY24, then reverted to 20.2% in FY25 and 19.7% in FY26.
49. Operating variances - continue to grow from current level Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected operating variances to "continue to grow from the current level", with assumptions revisited each year and kept sustainable, expecting more operating variance at Q2 FY23 and further improvement by Q2 FY24. From an FY22 "others" variance of 1,220 crore, all three variances were positive for nine months of FY23 with EV operating earnings of 9,050 crore, FY24 EV operating earnings reached 10,050 crore, FY25 EV operating variance was 727 crore and FY26 was 1,280 crore, mostly mortality and persistency.
50. VoNB margin - further improvement from 25.9% level Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management stated multiple times that VoNB margin would "further go up" from the current 25.9% level, driven by non-par guaranteed products, protection growth and new product launches, with subsequent guidance of 28-31% (Q2 FY23), 28-30% (Q3 FY23 through Q1 FY25), 26-27% for FY25, 27-28% then 26-28% for FY26, and 26-28% reiterated for FY27. Margin rose from 25.9% in FY22 to 30.1% in FY23, then held at 28.1% (FY24), 27.8% (FY25), 27.5% (FY26) and 26.2% in Q1 FY27, with management scorekeeping FY26 as "higher end of the range of 26% to 28%".