• Import volume impact: Following the increase in precious metals import duty from 6% to roughly 15%, gold import volumes are projected to decline by 10% to 15%.
• Growth and margin guidance: Senco Gold is maintaining its value growth target of 20% to 25% and EBITDA margin guidance of 7.5% to 7.8%, though elevated gold prices pose some risk to volume growth.
• Old gold exchange dynamics: Domestic consumer gold exchange now contributes 50% to 55% of transactions compared to 20% to 25% a decade ago, alongside rising demand for lighter 9-carat and 14-carat jewellery that reduces raw gold import needs.
• Unorganized trade risks: The widened duty differential increases the threat of smuggling and illicit sourcing by unorganized players, prompting organized jewellers to seek stricter border and route enforcement from the government.
• Duty duration outlook: The industry expects the elevated duties to remain in place for at least one year until geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, crude oil prices, and supply chain pressures stabilize.