1. No vertical to dilute ROCE below 20% Delivered - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said no vertical will be allowed to dilute company ROCE below 20%, "no matter what", with the group aspiring to anything above a 25% return profile. Q1 FY27 annualized ROCE was \~23%, above the 20% floor.
2. PAT growth to lag EBITDA growth near term Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said PAT growth will lag EBITDA growth near term due to elevated depreciation and capex-funded growth, starting "in a year or so". In Q1 FY27, EBITDA grew 64% YoY while PAT grew 41% YoY, consistent with the guidance.
3. FY26 EBITDA margin 2-2.5% Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management reiterated EBITDA margin guidance of 2% to 2.5%, calling the 2.5% margin "very protected". FY26 EBITDA margin was 2.2%, within the guided range.
4. Purlins and deck sheeting machinery installed Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management planned to install machinery for purlins (cold-form profiles) and deck sheeting to service the PEB/construction sector. New steel profile products launched in Q4 FY26 sold \~7,000 tons, and Q1 FY27 profiles volume was 18,000 tons, implying the machinery was installed.
5. Zinc to become substantial revenue contributor in 1-2 quarters Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected zinc to become a substantial revenue contributor in one, two more quarters. In Q3 FY25, zinc revenue was low due to price volatility and was called opportunistic; no substantial zinc contribution is disclosed in later quarters.
6. \~₹60 cr capex in H2 FY25 vs ₹100 cr guided Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said the company may spend another ₹100 cr of capex in H2 FY25. FY25 capex was ₹202.1 cr and 9M FY25 capex was ₹142 cr, implying H2 spend of \~₹60 cr - real progress, but short of the guided amount.
7. Ten new service centres in FY26 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management identified ten new service centres for the next financial year, starting with Chennai, Indore, Jaipur, Siliguri, Hyderabad and Ahmedabad, to be started one by one through calendar 2025. FY26 ended with 7 service centres operational.
8. FY26 service centre contribution 40-50% of revenue Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected service centres to contribute 40-50% to revenue in the next 2 years. FY26 service centre revenue was ₹3,214.4 cr of ₹6,315.3 cr total, \~51%, and Q1 FY27 contribution was \~80%.
9. EBITDA per tonne to rise from \~₹1,000 to ₹1,200-1,300 Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said EBITDA per tonne should rise from \~₹1,000 to around ₹1,200-1,300 per tonne based on product mix. By Q1 FY27, segment EBITDA per ton was ₹1,800-2,000 for service centres, ₹3,000-4,000 for steel profiles and ₹3,000-3,500 for solar.
10. Q4 FY25 revenue ₹1,500-1,700 cr Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided Q4 FY25 revenue between ₹1,500 cr and ₹1,700 cr, with a minimum of ₹1,500 cr "definitely". Q4 FY25 revenue was ₹1,595 cr, within the guided range.
11. FY25 volume 0.12-0.15 cr tonnes Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management reiterated FY25 volume guidance of 0.12-0.15 cr tonnes, having set 0.12 cr tons plus at Q2 FY25. FY25 total volume was 1,126k tons, or 0.1126 cr tons, at the lower end of the range.
12. FY27 volume 0.25-0.3 cr tonnes Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management reiterated FY27 volume of 0.25-0.3 cr tonnes. Q1 FY27 total volume was 214k tons, annualizing to \~0.09 cr tons - well below the guided run-rate; FY27 is not complete and management expects a ramp as more service centers open.
13. FY26 volume 0.2 cr tons plus Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management gave FY26 volume guidance of 0.2 cr tons plus. FY26 total volume was 1,095k tons, or 0.1095 cr tons, roughly 45% below the guided floor.
14. 15-20 days net working capital Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided for 15-20 days of net working capital, then negative, with working capital to stay negative a few quarters until scale-up; later guides were 15-20 days, 10-15 days by 30 June 2025, \~15 days, 15-25 days and 20-25 days over 2 years. Actuals ran 30 days in FY25, 15 in Q1 FY26, 22 in Q2 FY26, 27 in Q3 FY26, 20 in Q4 FY26 and 27 in Q1 FY27.
15. Channel financing; debtors no more than 3-4 days Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management said they were talking with banks for channel financing for customers and expected debtors of no more than 3-4 days. By Q2 FY26, standard debtor days were 20, and Q1 FY27 working capital days were 27.
16. ₹50,000 cr revenue by FY30 Pending - At the Q1 FY25 call, management laid out a revenue ramp to ₹50,000 cr by FY30. In Q1 FY26 they shifted to EBITDA-only guidance, and at Q1 FY27 Vision 2030 was set at ₹25,000-35,000 cr by 2030; FY26 revenue was ₹6,315 cr, with the FY30 horizon unreached as of September 2026.
17. Promoter holding not below 51% Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management stated promoter holding is 51% and "it is not going to go below this number at any course". In September 2025, the family/promoters added 0.35 cr shares via open market purchase, with no disclosure of the holding falling below 51%.
18. Dividend consideration after \~2 years Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said dividend consideration would come only after \~two years, when the majority of capex is completed. The horizon runs to \~FY28 and no dividend has been declared.
19. \~0.5 MTPA processing capacity each in Solar Structures and Steel Profiling by FY27 Pending - In the FY26 Annual Report (Aug 2026), SG Mart targeted an annual processing capacity of nearly 0.5 MTPA each across Solar Structures and Steel Profiling Products by the upcoming fiscal year. At Q1 FY27, capacity stood at around 200,000 tons in each of steel profiles and renewable structures, below target with the FY27 horizon still open.
20. 8 more CTL service stations by end of FY25 Missed - In the Aug 2024 rating rationale, plans were noted to add 8 more CTL service stations by end of fiscal 2025, on top of the 2 existing. FY25 closed with 5 service centres operational against a 10-total target.
21. Interest cover 5-6x in coming fiscals Missed - In the Aug 2024 rating rationale, interest cover was expected to remain between 5 and 6 times in the coming fiscals. FY25 interest coverage was 4.13x and FY26 was 3.8x, both below the range.
22. TOL/ANW below 1x in medium term Delivered - In the Aug 2024 rating rationale, the TOL/ANW ratio was expected to remain below one time in the medium term. FY25 borrowings of ₹689 cr against net worth of ₹1,208 cr and FY26 borrowings of ₹14.98 cr kept the ratio below 1x.
23. Operating margin stable at 2.3-2.5% Missed - In the Aug 2024 rating rationale, operating margin was expected to remain stable in the range of 2.3-2.5%. FY25 OPM was 1.76% and FY26 OPM was 2.16%, both below the range.
24. 0.4 cr ton value-added products ambition On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management set a long-term ambition of \~10,000 ton per month per service centre, totalling 0.3 cr ton from service centres plus 0.1 cr ton from solar structures and steel profiles, up to 0.4-0.45 cr ton with zero trading volume. Q1 FY27 combined value-added volume was \~189,000 tons, annualizing to \~0.076 cr tons.
25. Vision 2030: ₹25,000-35,000 cr revenue, minimum ₹1,000 cr EBITDA On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management set Vision 2030: with more than 0.4 cr tons of steel volume, revenue of ₹25,000-35,000 cr by 2030 with minimum ₹1,000 cr EBITDA, implying \~3-4% margin. Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹1,309 cr; the 2030 horizon is not reached.
26. ₹1,500 cr capex in next 2-3 years, no new capital raising On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided total capex of about ₹1,500 cr over the next 2-3 years, funded from existing cash of ₹700 cr plus operating cash flow, with "no requirement of any new capital raising or any dilution". Q1 FY27 net cash was ₹690 cr with Q1 capex of ₹90 cr; the horizon runs to FY29-FY30.
27. Raipur backward manufacturing line fully operational in 18 months On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said the own backward manufacturing line (cold rolled + metal coating) in Raipur will be fully operational in the next 18 months / 1.5 years, lifting EBITDA to ₹6,000-7,000 per ton. Land is acquired, construction has begun and some machinery is ordered; the horizon runs to \~Dec 2027.
28. 300,000 tons annual volume from steel profiles in 3 years On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management gave a three-year segment target of \~300,000 tons from steel profiles. Q1 FY27 profiles volume was 18,000 tons, annualizing to \~72,000 tons; the horizon runs to FY29.
29. 300,000 tons annual volume from renewable structures in 3 years On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management gave a three-year segment target of \~300,000 tons annual volume from renewable structures. Q1 FY27 solar structures volume was 11,000 tons, annualizing to \~44,000 tons; the horizon runs to FY29.
30. FY27-FY28 capex \~₹600 cr On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided \~₹600 cr of already-approved capex over FY27 and FY28, calling it a "minimum"; at Q1 FY27 this became around ₹400-500 cr for FY27 within about ₹1,500 cr over 2-3 years. Q1 FY27 capex was ₹89.6 cr, consistent with the annualized plan.
31. Pune renewable structures plant starting February 2026 Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management stated the Pune renewable structures plant is starting in February 2026. In Q4 FY26, renewable structures delivered their first full year of meaningful volumes at Dujana and Pune, and Q1 FY27 had 3 manufacturing centres operational.
32. 20-25% market share of solar structures in FY27 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management targeted 20-25% market share of the \~40,000-50,000 tons/month solar structures market in FY27. Q1 FY27 solar volume was 11,000 tons, implying \~22-28% share; FY27 is not complete.
33. FY27 structures volumes 350,000-400,000 tons On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided FY27 structures volumes of \~350,000-400,000 tons (solar \~180,000 tons; trade profiles \~200,000 tons) at ₹4,000-5,000 per ton, giving ₹120-150 cr EBITDA. Q1 FY27 combined structures volume was 29,000 tons, annualizing to \~116,000 tons; FY27 is not complete.
34. FY27 B2B Metal Trading EBITDA ₹50 cr Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided FY27 B2B Metal Trading conservatively at the then run rate of 125,000 tons/quarter (500,000 tons full year) at ₹800-900 per ton spread, i.e. ₹50 cr EBITDA. Q1 FY27 B2B volume was only 17,000 tons and management said trading is "not a focus area"; with three quarters of FY27 unreported, the full-year outcome is not yet known.
35. FY27 Dubai service centre EBITDA ₹50 cr On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided the Dubai service centre to deliver ₹10-12 cr EBITDA per quarter, \~₹50 cr for full year FY27. Dubai operations were disrupted by war with hardly any business in March 2026, and the Iran-U.S. war restarted before Q1 FY27; no full-year read yet.
36. FY27 service centre volume \~750,000 tons On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided FY27 service centre full-year volume of \~750,000 tons at ₹2,000 per ton EBITDA, i.e. ₹150 cr EBITDA from India service centres. Q1 FY27 service centre volume was 160,000 tons, annualizing to \~640,000 tons, with management expecting Q2 volumes to pick up.
37. Solar profile structures product launch Dec 2024-Jan 2025 Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said the new solar profile structures product would start in December or January, over the next 1 to 2 months; at Q3 FY25 the first sale of solar mounted ground structures was expected in February 2025. Solar Module Mounting Structures operations started from April 2025, with the "Sun Steel" brand and 50,000 tons order visibility in Q4 FY25.
38. Raipur and Dubai service centres by December 2024 Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said Raipur and Dubai service centres should start by December 2024, giving five fully operational centres entering Q4; at Q3 FY25 both were delayed to February 2025 due to extended monsoon. Five centres - Raipur, Bangalore, Ghaziabad, Dubai and Pune - were operational by Q4 FY25, about 2 months late.
39. 20-25 service centres by FY27 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said that on entering FY27 the company should be operating a minimum of 20-25 service centres; later guides were 15 operational plus 10 under construction in 15-20 months and 20-30 total at Q1 FY26. Q1 FY27 had 7 service centres operational.
40. 101 service centres by 2030 Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management targeted a network of 101 service centres by 2030 (\~2 outside India, 99 in India), adding 10-20 every year. The target was revised down to 20-30 centres at Q1 FY26 and to 25 by 2029-2030 at Q1 FY27; 7 were operational at Q1 FY27.
41. FY26 capex ₹150-200 cr Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided annual capex of ₹150-200 cr for warehouses and service centres, adjusted at Q2 FY26 to fall short of ₹200 cr by \~₹50 cr. FY26 cash capex was ₹234.2 cr and full-year capex including CWIP and advances was \~₹525 cr, above the plan.
42. FY26 ROCE upward of 25% Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided full-year ROCE "upward of 25%" for FY26. FY26 ROCE was 15%, with Q4 FY26 annualized ROCE of \~25% below the full-year guided floor.
43. Working capital 10-15 days by 30 June 2025 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management committed working capital would come back to 10-15 days in the June quarter, "you will see 10 to 15 days of WC by 30th June". Q1 FY26 working capital came down to 15 days, meeting the deadline.
44. Service centre volume to double in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said service centre volume would double as five more service centres were added. FY25 service centre volume was 386k tons and FY26 volume was 637k tons, growth of \~65% rather than a doubling.
45. B2B metal trading volume +50% in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected B2B metal trading volume of \~50,000 tons/month to grow by 50% in FY26; the FY25 Annual Report had the vertical "poised to double" and Q2 FY26 guided 15-20% growth. FY25 B2B volume was 632k tons and FY26 volume was 411k tons, a decline of \~35%.
46. FY26 non-TMT distribution revenue ₹1,000 cr Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management targeted non-TMT distribution products, then at a \~₹40 cr monthly run-rate (\~₹500 cr annual), to reach ₹1,000 cr revenue in FY26, reiterated as ₹1,000 cr-plus at Q1 FY26. FY26 "Others" segment revenue, which includes non-TMT distribution, was ₹793 cr, with no separate disclosure showing the target met.
47. Solar capacity 200,000 tons/year live by Aug-Sep 2025 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said solar capacity of 200,000 tons/year (15,000 tons/month) had been ordered and would be live by August-September 2025. Renewable capacity was sufficient for 150,000 tons/year at Q4 FY26 and around 200,000 tons at Q1 FY27, operational by FY26 end.
48. Solar structures 50,000 tons order visibility executed in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said 50,000 tons of solar order visibility would be executed in FY26 and would "easily double" in FY27, reiterated in the FY25 Annual Report. FY26 Renewable Structures volume was 40,000 tons, 20% below the 50,000-ton target.