1. Hospital business - 20% growth for next 3-4 years, Rs. 900 crore in FY24 Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management raised the hospital revenue target to "900 Crores on the hospitals business" for FY24, with similar growth for the next three to four years. FY24 hospital revenue was Rs. 855 crore, though 20% growth; FY25 grew 16% to Rs. 996 crore and FY26 just 1.4% to Rs. 1,010 crore.
2. Sanar Hospital - EBITDA positive in coming quarters, PBT breakeven by FY25 end Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, Naresh Kapoor guided Sanar breakeven at EBITDA level "next quarter onwards" and PBT breakeven "by the financial year-end or early next financial quarter", with the EBITDA timeline later pushed repeatedly. In Q1 FY27 Gurgaon achieved EBITDA break-even for the first time, posting 7% EBITDA at 24% occupancy, while PBT remained negative at Rs. (39.78) million.
3. Implant COGS reduction to 50-55% by end of FY25 Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management targeted COGS of \~50-55% by end of FY25, from currently upwards of 80%, reiterated in Q1 FY25. COGM per component fell from $109 in Q1 FY25 to $77 in Q2 and $65 in Q3, a \~40% reduction, but the 50-55% target was not confirmed as achieved.
4. Implant business - FY25 US sales $8 million, OUS sales $8 million Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management targeted US implant sales of $8 million in FY25 and outside-US sales of another $8 million, for combined \~$16 million, reiterated in Q1 FY25. FY25 MedTech revenue was Rs. 93 crore, \~$11 million, with Q2 FY25 US/OUS contribution split 30%/70%, so the $16 million combined target was not achieved.
5. Implant business - FY24 revenue growth 50-70%, single-digit positive bottom line Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided implant FY24 revenue growth "around 50 to 70%" with "single digit positive" bottom line, revised down in Q2 FY24 to "around close to 30% to 35% growth". FY24 implant revenue was Rs. 78.6 crore, down from Rs. 94 crore in FY23, with EBITDA of Rs. 0.12 crore.
6. Hospital business to generate more than INR 200 crores EBITDA in FY24 Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said the hospital business would generate more than INR 200 crores of EBITDA next year. FY24 hospital EBITDA was Rs. 196.5 crore, below the Rs. 200 crore target.
7. Hospital revenue \~Rs. 800 crore in FY23, occupancy 50-55% Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided hospital occupancy averaging 50-55% in FY23 on projected \~Rs. 800 crores hospital sales, reiterated in Q2 FY23 as "very much still doable", then revised in Q3 FY23 to \~INR 725-750 crores. FY23 hospital revenue was Rs. 728 crore, within the revised range but below Rs. 800 crore, and Q4 FY23 occupied beds of 579 implied \~46% occupancy.
8. Implant business - $100 million revenue in 5 years On track - At the Q1 FY23 call, management planned $100 million of SAT sales in five years with \~65-70% from the US, reiterated in Q2 FY25 as "2028-29 is when we see a $100 million business" and softened in Q1 FY26 to "next 4 to 5 years", with Q4 FY26 reframing it as INR600-700 crores by 2030. FY26 MedTech revenue was Rs. 135 crore, \~$16 million, and Q1 FY27 was Rs. 47.2 crore.
9. Implant business - Rs. 100 crore revenue in FY23, EBITDA positive Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the implant business to cross Rs. 100 crores in FY23, confirmed through Q4 FY22 with EBITDA positive by end of 2023. FY23 implant revenue was Rs. 94 crores, below target, though EBITDA turned positive that year.
10. Franchise model - 50 hospitals in 3 years, 15-20% of EBITDA in 3-5 years Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management committed to over 50 Shalby franchise hospitals across India within three years, later lowered to more than 40 in three to four years and softened in Q4 FY25: "We may not achieve the target". By Q4 FY26 the network comprised Zynova (100 beds) and Gwalior (50 beds), while 2 SOCE units and the loss-making FOSO hospital were shut.
11. Implant business (SAT) - FY22 sales Rs. 45-50 crore, FY23 breakeven and earnings accretive Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management expected FY22 implant sales of 45-50 crores with FY23 breakeven and EBITDA neutral, later aiming to cross Rs. 100 crores in FY23. FY22 implant revenue was Rs. 31 crore from May 16, 2021 to March 2022, below target; FY23 revenue was Rs. 94 crore with EBITDA positive.
12. 15-20% YoY growth for next four to five years without additional capex Partial - At the Q3 FY21 call, management guided "15%, 20% year-on-year for next four to five years" without additional capex, reaffirmed in Q3 FY23 for the next four years within existing capacity. Hospital revenue grew from Rs. 431 crore in FY21 to Rs. 1,010 crore in FY26, but growth fell to 7% in FY23 and 1.4% in FY26.
13. Medical devices manufacturing - overseas acquisition to close in 2-3 months, EBITDA positive in first year Partial - At the Q3 FY21 call, Murari Rajan said the overseas (OMC) transaction should be completed "in the next two to three months" and hoped the first year would be EBITDA positive. The Consensus Orthopedics acquisition completed in May 2021, but the first year had negative EBITDA of Rs. 6.7 crore, turning positive in FY23.
14. ROCE to reach double-digit in FY22 and 20-25% at higher occupancy Partial - At the Q3 FY21 call, management guided ROCE to "quickly go on to double-digit ROCE numbers in FY2022" with potential of "about 20% to 25% ROCE and ROE levels", and in Q4 FY21 said occupancy of 70-80% would take it "near 20%". Hospital ROCE reached 14% in FY22, but standalone ROCE declined from 20% in Q1 FY24 to 9.4% in Q1 FY27.
15. EBITDA margin to reach \~25% at ideal group-level occupancy Partial - At the Q2 FY21 call, management said at ideal occupancy EBITDA margin can reach \~25%, with 24% confirmed as stable long-term in Q3 FY21, and 26% hospital margin called "quite sustainable" in Q2 FY24. Standalone hospital EBITDA margins moved from 21.6% in FY22 and 23% in FY24 to 18.4% in FY26 and 18.4% in Q1 FY27.
16. Asha Parekh Hospital Mumbai - \~Rs. 150-170 crore, \~160-175 beds, operational in 2-3 years Missed - At the Q2 FY21 call, management described the Mumbai project as \~Rs. 150 crores for \~160 beds, revised over time to a little over INR 250 crores and a 3-3.5-year timeline from Q1 FY26. As of Q1 FY27 no construction had started, with discussions ongoing and no timeline given; the PPT targets 200 beds for 2030-31.
17. Nashik hospital operational in 12-18 months with Rs. 25-30 crore spend Missed - At the Q2 FY21 call, management said Nashik would be operational in 12 to 18 months, with \~Rs. 25-30 crores mainly for medical equipment. Handover of the warm shell from the partner had still not occurred as of Q4 FY24, with no Shalby capital employed, and our record holds no later disclosure of operationalization.
18. Operationalize 800 of 2,000 beds with Rs. 40-50 crore capex in 2-3 months Missed - At the Q2 FY21 call, management said operationalizing 800 of 2,000 beds would take no more than two to three months at Rs. 40-50 crores capex, later scaling the balance to 2,000 beds at INR 15-odd crore. Operational beds moved from 1,235 at end-FY22 to 1,415 in Q4 FY25 and 1,365 in Q4 FY26, still well below 2,000.
19. Revenue growth \~2.5x from FY20 within existing 2,000-bed capacity over 3-5 years Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management believed revenue could grow \~2.5x from FY20 levels within existing 2,000-bed capacity over three to five years, with existing capacity later seen supporting \~INR 1,400 crores. FY20 revenue was \~Rs. 440 crore and FY26 revenue Rs. 1,168 crore, \~2.65x FY20.
20. Arthroplasty recovery to 65-70% of pre-COVID level in Q3 FY21 Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management expected arthroplasty to recover to \~65-70% of pre-COVID levels in Q3 FY21, from 35-40% in Q2. In Q3 FY21 joint replacement volumes were at \~70-75% of pre-COVID levels, and arthroplasty's revenue contribution rose to 40% in Q4 FY21 from 17%.