1. Water-based paint proportion - increase to \~65% in one year, then \~70% Partial - In the FY22 annual report, management guided increasing water-based paint proportion to about 65% in the next one year, later revised in the FY24 annual report to about 70% in the next one year from \~61% in FY24. FY24 water-based share was \~61%, and FY25 reached 64%, missing both the original 65% target by \~Sep 2023 and the revised 70% target by \~Sep 2025.
2. Cash flow positive Pending - At the Q1 FY24 call, management stated they are targeting to be cash flow positive, with the preceding discussion referencing a "couple of years" timeline for margin improvement. FY24 through FY26 saw sustained operating losses with PAT of -₹73.85 cr, -₹81.17 cr, and -₹64.95 cr respectively, and interest coverage at -1.58x as of FY26, with no explicit cash flow from operations disclosure in our record to confirm or refute the target (SQL).
3. R&D facility at Nashik - operational by October or November 2023 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided that a medium-level R&D facility in Nashik should be up and operational by October or November 2023. The FY24 annual report confirms the company completed its state-of-the-art R&D facility at Nashik, spanning over 31,000 square feet, in FY 2023-24.
4. Infra.Market partnership - significant balance-sheet impact in 11-12 months Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided the Infra.Market partnership should show a very good figure and significant balance-sheet impact in 11 to 12 months, by around July-August 2023. Contribution remained at \~₹5-6 cr per quarter through Q3 FY23 and \~1-1.5% of overall revenue in FY23, with no step-change or significant balance-sheet impact disclosed by the Aug 2023 deadline.
5. PAT positive - by the time capex is completed (\~FY25) Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided the company cannot afford not to be PAT positive by the time capex is completed within \~24 months. Capex was largely completed by FY26 with CWIP at ₹0.01 cr, yet PAT remained deeply negative at -₹73.85 cr in FY24, -₹81.17 cr in FY25, and -₹64.95 cr in FY26 (SQL).
6. Fill all product white spaces - by FY23 year-end Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided that by FY23 year-end the company would have filled up all product white spaces and have presence in most categories. By Q1 FY24, management was still committing to bringing the product range to almost 90% of competition and planning wood coatings and waterproofing launches for Sep-Oct 2023, indicating the FY23 target was not fully met.
7. Waterproofing category entry - products launched by Q2 FY23, full basket by Q3 FY23 Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided entering waterproofing with one or two products by the next quarterly call, and at Q2 FY23 guided completing the full basket within three to four months by \~Jan 2023. The first product "Zero Damp" launched by Q2 FY23 and contributed 3-4% of incremental sales by Q3 FY23, but no disclosure in our record confirms the full basket was completed, with further portfolio enhancement still being planned in Q1 FY24.
8. Plant capacity increase - each plant to 50,000-100,000 kl per annum Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management stated each plant would reach 50,000 to 100,000 kl capacity, with a 24-month horizon set at Q3 FY23 and a total target of 185 ml ltr p.a. guided at Q1 FY24. CWIP dropped to ₹0.01 cr in FY26 from ₹26.27 cr in FY25 suggesting capex execution, but our record holds no confirmation that the per-plant or aggregate capacity target was achieved within the inferred Dec 2024 deadline (SQL).
9. Capex of ₹100-150 cr for expansion - within two to two-and-a-half years Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided spending ₹100 to ₹150 crore in capex within two to two-and-a-half years, later revised upward to \~₹190 cr by Q1 FY24. CWIP rose from ₹0.17 cr in FY22 to ₹34.94 cr in FY24, and the FY23 annual report disclosed approx. ₹60-₹70 cr from own funds had been done, but no disclosure confirms total spend reached ₹100 cr within the explicit Sep 2024 deadline (SQL; D15 p.14).
10. EBITDA margins at industry level - in a couple of years On track - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided EBITDA margins should be almost at industry level in a couple of years, later quantified at Q1 FY24 as at least 5%-8% in a couple of years. The latest FY26 OPM stands at -3.89%, still within the FY26-FY27 window implied by the Q1 FY24 guidance, with the horizon not yet fully exhausted (SQL).
11. Gross margin maintained at 28-30% while growing revenue Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management stated they would not reduce gross margin from 28%-29% to increase revenue, later raising the target to 35% plus at Q1 FY24. FY23 gross margin was 27.0%, breaching the original floor, and the revised 35%+ target was never approached through FY26 with OPM remaining negative throughout.
12. EBITDA positive - within FY23, then "in quarters to come" Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided EBITDA positive within FY23, possibly Q3 or Q4, later reset at Q1 FY24 to an open-ended "in quarters to come". Only Q3 FY23 showed a marginal positive EBITDA of ₹0.44 cr, while full-year FY23 EBITDA was -₹7.55 cr, and quarterly OPM remained negative from Q4 FY23 through Q3 FY26 before turning marginally positive in Q4 FY26.
13. Cross ₹1,000 crore in revenues - in the next two-three years, three-four years at the most Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management planned to cross ₹1,000 crore in revenues in two-three years, three-four years at the most, with the goalpost reiterated at Q1 FY23 and the horizon restated at Q1 FY24 as possibly FY26-FY27. The earliest inferred deadline FY25 passed with revenue at ₹600 cr, and FY26 revenue declined to ₹576 cr, far from the ₹1,000 cr target with no disclosed trajectory toward it (SQL).
14. Revenue growth - more than double the industry growth rate Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management stated they plan to increase revenue at more than double the industry growth rate, later quantified at Q1 FY24 as at least 20% to 25% year after year. FY23 grew 35.07%, but FY24 grew only 10.56%, FY25 grew 12.13%, and FY26 declined 4.03%, falling below the 20% floor of the latest guidance in each of the last three years (SQL).