1. Rs 1,000 cr turnover - over a period of five years Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided a Rs 1,000 cr turnover target over five years, with a first milestone of Rs 500 cr within 12 to 18 months; at the Q2 FY22 call, the long-term target was revised to around Rs 650 cr over three years. FY26 revenue was Rs 341 cr (SQL), far below the Rs 1,000 cr five-year target, and the intermediate milestones of Rs 500 cr by FY23 and Rs 650 cr by FY25 were also not reached.
2. Haversack defence order - Rs 27.28 cr execution by Q3 FY22 Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided the Rs 27.28 cr Haversack order production would happen in Q2 FY22 and be over by Q3 FY22; at the Q2 FY22 call, management reiterated completion by Q3 FY22. By the Q4 FY22 call, the Rs 27 cr Haversack order was referred to in the past tense, consistent with on-time completion.
3. Seamless garments capacity - commissioned in Q4 FY22 Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the seamless garments capacity would be commissioned in Q4 FY22. At the Q4 FY22 call, management stated the new processing plant had just been commissioned, but our record holds no explicit confirmation that the seamless garments line was operational by March 2022.
4. Rs 18 cr capex - commissioning by February-March 2022, Rs 25 cr annualised turnover from April 2022 Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided that Rs 18 cr capex for buildings and equipment would be commissioned by February-March 2022, generating Rs 25 cr annualised turnover from April 2022. At the Q4 FY22 call, management confirmed the new processing plant had just been commissioned, but our record holds no disclosure of the Rs 25 cr annualised turnover being achieved.
5. Defence tender pipeline - \~Rs 150 cr bids, results by March-April 2022, >Rs 50 cr orders over next year Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided that results for \~Rs 150 cr of defence tenders would be known by March-April 2022, with >Rs 50 cr in orders expected over the next year. FY23 disclosed defence orders of Rs 13.14 cr for extreme cold weather suits and Rs 11.9 cr for Haversack bags, totalling \~Rs 25 cr, below the >Rs 50 cr target.
6. Non-spinning business - Rs 200 cr turnover over twenty-four months (by FY24) Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the conventional non-spinning business would grow from Rs 150 cr to Rs 200 cr over twenty-four months; at the Q4 FY22 call, the FY23 target was revised to Rs 180-200 cr. FY22 non-spinning revenue was Rs 127 cr, FY23 non-spinning revenue was \~Rs 107 cr, and the Rs 200 cr target was not reached in FY23 or FY24.
7. Quick Dry business - 20-25% year-on-year growth Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the Quick Dry business would achieve 20-25% year-on-year growth. FY22 Quick Dry turnover was approximately Rs 38 cr, representing 10% degrowth, and subsequent Quick Dry revenue is not separately disclosed in our record.
8. Quick Dry EBITDA margin - 13-14%, eventually \~18% Pending - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided Quick Dry EBITDA margins should be 13-14%, eventually reaching \~18%. Our record holds no segment-level EBITDA margin disclosure for Quick Dry in any period, so progress cannot be assessed (SQL).
9. Non-spinning business - 2X or 3X over five, six, seven years (by FY27-FY29) Pending - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the non-spinning business would reach Rs 200 cr in twenty-four months and then grow 2X or 3X over five to seven years. FY22 non-spinning revenue was Rs 127 cr; the five-year horizon ends FY27 and the seven-year horizon ends FY29, so no read on the 2X-3X trajectory is yet available.
10. Dividend payout policy - no change for at least two to three years (through FY24-FY25) Pending - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the dividend payout policy would not change for at least two to three years. FY22 dividend was Rs 1.40 per share, but no dividend was recommended in FY24, and the FY25 annual report is not cited to confirm whether a dividend was paid in the final year of the stated window.
11. Windmill power agreement - LK Distributors 50 lakh units on favourable terms Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the company would enter into an agreement with LK Distributors to pick up 50 lakh units of windmill power on favourable terms. The company acquired a 26% stake in LK Distributors and consumed wind power captively, but our record holds no explicit disclosure of a 50-lakh-unit power purchase agreement being executed.
12. FY23 spinning-to-non-spinning split - 60:40 on a conservative basis Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the company would finish FY23 with a 60:40 spinning-to-non-spinning split on a conservative basis. FY23 non-spinning contribution was 26.06%, implying a \~74:26 split, far from the 60:40 target.
13. Garmenting division - Rs 80-90 cr from army in FY23, Rs 90 cr overall Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the garmenting division would generate Rs 80-90 cr from the army in FY23, with Rs 90 cr overall on a conservative basis. FY23 disclosed defence orders totalled \~Rs 25 cr, and no disclosure of garmenting division revenue reaching Rs 90 cr exists in our record.
14. Internal accrual generation - Rs 30-35 cr over 18 months (by FY24) Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the company would generate Rs 30-35 cr of internal accrual cash over the next 18 months. FY23 PAT was Rs (6.55) cr and FY24 PAT was Rs (10.77) cr; the company reported losses, so no positive internal accrual generation occurred.
15. LK Distributors stake increase - to 40% Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the company planned to increase its stake in LK Distributors to 40% from the recently acquired 26%. Our record holds no disclosure of the stake being increased to 40% through FY26; the stake is referenced at 26% in subsequent filings.
16. Quick Dry - largest baby products brand in India Pending - From Q4 FY21 PPT through Q1 FY24 PPT, management repeatedly stated the target for Quick Dry to be the largest baby products brand in India. No stated deadline, outcome, or disclosure of market leadership has been provided in our record, leaving the target aspirational and unconfirmed.
17. Quick Dry distribution - 30,000+ retailers through 400+ distributors Pending - From Q4 FY21 PPT through Q1 FY24 PPT, management repeatedly stated plans to reach 30,000+ retailers through 400+ distributors pan India. As of Q1 FY24 PPT, the network stood at 10,000+ retailers through 200+ distributors, with no subsequent update on this target's progress or withdrawal in our record.
18. Non-flex biodegradable banners - capitalise on Kerala and Bengaluru ban Pending - From Q4 FY21 through Q1 FY24, management repeatedly stated the company is poised to capitalise on the flex banner ban by offering non-flex biodegradable options in Kerala and Bengaluru. As of the latest cited disclosures, no completion, withdrawal, or material revenue outcome from this initiative has been reported.
19. Demerger of spinning business - within a three-year window (by FY24) Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided the idea is to separate the spinning and non-spinning divisions, with a three-year window being more realistic. Our record holds no disclosure of a demerger being initiated or completed through FY26.
20. Average interest cost - 9.5% to 10% Pending - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided the average interest cost in the future will definitely be 9.5% to 10%. Interest coverage was 2.15x in FY26, but our record holds no disclosure confirming the average interest cost fell to the 9.5-10% range (SQL).
21. Technical textiles - reach \~Rs 280-300 cr with current capacity Pending - At the Q1 FY22 call, management stated that with current capacity, technical textiles could reach a maximum of Rs 280-300 cr, without specifying a timeframe. FY22 non-spinning revenue was Rs 127 cr and FY23 non-spinning revenue was \~Rs 107 cr; no segment-level technical textiles data is available for FY24-FY26 to confirm or refute the outcome.
22. Debt reduction - decrease in near future / short term Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided that in the near future, debt would decrease and in the short term would continuously go down. Total borrowings decreased from Rs 141.01 cr in FY22 to Rs 69.84 cr in FY26, consistent with the commitment.
23. Technical textiles - CAGR of 15% to 25% to 30% Pending - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided the technical textiles operations can confidently expect a CAGR of 15% to 25% to 30%. FY22 non-spinning revenue was Rs 127 cr, and FY23 non-spinning revenue declined to \~Rs 107 cr, but the full measurement period for the CAGR target was not specified.
24. Spinning vs non-spinning ratio - 75:25 through FY22 Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the spinning vs. non-spinning ratio of \~75:25 would hold right through FY22. FY22 spinning-to-non-spinning split was approximately 72:28, in line with the guided 75:25.
25. Spinning - 20-25% increase at annualised level Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided a 20-25% increase at annualised level for spinning. FY21 spinning revenue was \~Rs 204 cr and FY22 spinning revenue was \~Rs 350 cr, representing \~72% growth, far exceeding the 20-25% guidance.
26. EBITDA percentage improvement - 4% to 8% from current levels Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the EBITDA percentage would improve 4% to 8% from current levels given growth in technical textiles. FY22 EBITDA margin was 11.55%, but FY23 EBITDA margin was 2.04% and FY24 OPM was 2.24%; margins collapsed rather than improved.