1. Steady-state PBT margin - 15% to 18% Pending - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided that at the PBT level, the company should be within a range of 15% to 18% steady state going forward. 9M FY25 PBT margin was 2.7%; the steady-state horizon is not explicitly dated and current margins remain far below the target range.
2. Rights issue - reduce debt of close to ₹900 cr from proceeds On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated that from the rights issue proceeds, they planned to reduce debt of close to ₹900 crores. Net debt fell from ₹1,188 cr in Q1 FY25 to ₹456 cr in Q3 FY25, a reduction of ₹732 cr; proceeds utilisation was reported on schedule.
3. Contracts & manufacturing - stabilise at ₹450-500 cr yearly revenue, >15% gross margins Pending - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided that the contracts and manufacturing segment might stabilise at a cumulative revenue of about ₹450 crores to ₹500 crores on a yearly basis with gross margins of over 15%. 9M FY25 segment revenue was ₹427 cr; the stabilisation horizon is forward-looking with no explicit date.
4. Long-term gross debt - \~₹1,600 cr absolute level On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided that in the long term, gross debt might be at an absolute level of about 1,600 crores; this was revised at the Q3 FY25 call to a medium-term comfort range of ₹1,200 crores to ₹1,500 crores. Gross debt at end of Q3 FY25 was ₹1,576 cr, near the upper bound of the revised range.
5. Rights issue proceeds - deploy majority of capital in 2 years Pending - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided that in the next 2 years they should be able to deploy the majority of the capital from rights issue proceeds. As of 31 December 2024, utilisation of net proceeds was on schedule per monitoring agency reports; the 2-year horizon from Q2 FY25 is not yet reached.
6. Resume operational updates (pre-sales reporting) from Q2 FY25 Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided that the company would continue with operational updates from the next quarter. Q2 FY25 operational update was published on 7th October 2024 and Q3 FY25 update on 7th January 2025, with full pre-sales disclosure.
7. Rights issue - call on remaining two tranches in \~3 months; 18-month total window Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call (Aug 2024), management guided a call on the remaining tranches in another three months, with an 18-month total window; the Q2 FY25 call guided the call in December 2024. The first tranche of call money was called towards end of December 2024 and proceeds received in January 2025; the cited sources do not confirm whether the remaining tranches were called within the 18-month window.
8. Project-level EBITDA margins >30% on FY23-Q1 FY25 sales; margin recovery from Q2 FY25 Pending - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided that EBITDA margins at project level for sales done in FY23, FY24 and Q1 FY25 should be more than 30%, with improvement starting from next quarter. Q2 FY25 EBITDA margin was 11.3% and Q3 FY25 was 8.0%; the >30% claim relates to project-level margins on specific sales cohorts to be recognised over 4-5 years, and the recognition window remains open.
9. Revenue recognition improvement - starting Q2 FY25 Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided that revenue recognition from deliveries should start improving from Q2 itself. Q2 FY25 total revenue rose 25% YoY to ₹965 cr and Q3 FY25 improved 76.1% YoY to ₹1,257 cr, with real estate contributing ₹781 cr and ₹1,063 cr respectively.
10. De-emphasise civil contracts projects Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided that going forward, the company would deemphasise civil contracts projects. At the Q3 FY25 call, management confirmed they have been reducing emphasis on civil contracts and descoped some projects during the quarter; contracts and manufacturing segment revenue for 9M FY25 was ₹427 cr.
11. Future project pipeline - \~3 cr sq ft to launch stage in 1.5-3 years Pending - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided a future project pipeline of about 3 crore square feet from existing land bank and new transactions, with an expected timeline to launch stage of between one and a half to three years. As of Q3 FY25, subsequent projects land of 198 acres with development potential of 21 Mn sft was disclosed; the horizon is not yet reached.
12. Residential launch pipeline - 1.79 cr sq ft in 6-8 quarters On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided a residential launch pipeline of 1.79 cr sq ft across 16 projects expected to be launched in the next six to eight quarters; the pipeline was revised to 2.1 cr sq ft across 19 projects at the Q3 FY25 call, envisaging launch in the next four to six quarters. As of Q3 FY25, 0.47 cr sq ft had been launched in 9M FY25, with RERA received for Townpark, Madison Heights and Hampton post Q3.
13. FY25 deliveries - \~0.5 cr sq ft Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided delivery of about 0.5 crore square feet in FY25. 9M FY25 completions stood at 0.34 cr sq ft; the FY25 horizon has lapsed with no full-year outcome in our record.
14. FY25 launches - \~0.9 cr sq ft Pending - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided FY25 launches of about 0.9 crore square feet, a target maintained through the Q3 FY25 call. 9M FY25 launches stood at 0.47 cr sq ft over 6 projects; the FY25 horizon has lapsed with no full-year disclosure in our record.
15. FY25 sales target - at least \~₹8,500 cr Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided an FY25 sales target of at least about 8,500 crores; at the Q3 FY25 call, management acknowledged 9M sales of ₹4,440 cr fell short and stated they were aiming to reach at least what they did last year. 9M FY25 sales value stood at ₹4,441 cr; the FY25 horizon has lapsed with no full-year disclosure in our record.