1. Robotics & Physical AI vertical - focus on entire value chain On track - In the Q1 FY27 PPT, the new growth vertical Robotics & Physical AI was set to focus on the entire value chain: components & subsystems, perception stack and ER&D services, and development & manufacturing of selected full-stack robot platforms. Q1 FY27 notes state the vertical secured 3 orders aggregating ₹600 crore, taking its order book to ₹800 crore, and an AMR prototype was showcased at CES 2026.
2. Denso JV2 - 2W/3W, Sona Comstar majority Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management announced the Denso JV2 for 2W/3W, with Sona Comstar holding majority and management control and licensing its own technology. The JV was announced on 22 July 2026; no operational milestones are recorded yet.
3. Denso JV1 - high-voltage powertrain for 4W/4+W Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management announced the Denso JV1 for high-voltage electric/hybrid powertrains for 4W/4+W, with Denso majority, Denso technology and management lead. The JV was announced on 22 July 2026; no operational milestones are recorded yet.
4. Robotics/humanoids - money starts \~year 5, real money years 5-10 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management framed the robotics/humanoids (Neura MOU) horizon: 0-5 years spending money without making money, money starting \~year 5, real money in years 5-10. By Q1 FY27, robotics/physical AI had secured 3 orders aggregating ₹600 crore for an ₹800 crore order book, with management saying progress was "much faster than we expected".
5. Suspension motor scaling - millions in 2026, tens/hundreds of millions by 2028-29 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management laid out the suspension motor timeline: no dollars until 2024, first dollar in 2025, "26 will be when we'll make millions, and hopefully 28, 29 is when we go into tens and hundreds of millions". Q4 FY26 notes state 2026 is the first year suspension motors will be in hundreds of crores, with China the fastest-growing geography on the ramp-up in Q1 FY27.
6. Railway order book - ₹1,300 crore executed within 12 months On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said the railway order book of ₹1,300 crore was expected to be executed mainly within the next 12 months. The Q4 FY26 PPT still lists ₹1,300 crore (5% of total order book) for execution largely within 12 months, and the Q1 FY27 PPT lists ₹1,200 crore.
7. China JV with JNT - operations commence H2 FY26 Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said the China JV with JNT (Sona Comstar 60% controlling stake) would commence operations in the second half of the current financial year. By Q2 FY26 the JV was in abeyance, based mostly on geopolitical factors and capital allocation prioritization, to be picked up "where we left off" only if lead indicators change.
8. Asia share - likely exceed 50% of revenue Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected the share from Asia (including India) to likely exceed 50% of revenue in coming quarters, and non-automotive revenue share to increase to over 25%. India was 55% of Q3 FY26 revenue and Eastern markets 58%, reaching 60% in Q4 FY26; non-automotive rose to 29% in H1 FY26 and 31% in 9M FY26.
9. Rare earth magnet supply - resolve soon, light rare earth production regardless Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected resolution "soon" on heavy rare earth magnet supply and said production would use light rare earth magnets regardless. The company shifted to light rare-earth motor designs within 3 months and validated a rare-earth-free Ferrite Assisted Synchronous Reluctance Motor; by Q1 FY27 it reported no real magnet shortage despite restrictions persisting for 5 quarters.
10. Global market share - toward 20% (from 8.8%) Pending - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated a strategic shift to focus on "East plus West" with an ambition to take global market share toward 20%, from 8.8% at the time. CY25 global differential gear market share was 8.7%, and no explicit timeline was given for the 20% ambition.
11. ClearMotion investment - $4 million, \~1.5% stake Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated the ClearMotion investment would be $4 million in the current fundraising round, with an equity stake of about 1.5%. Q4 FY25 notes state \~₹60 crore was invested in NOVELIC and Clear Motion Inc during FY25; no explicit stake percentage confirmation is recorded.
12. Revenue doubling - FY24 to FY27 On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, management reiterated the revenue-doubling ambition: "we finished our first one in FY24, first three years, so FY24 to FY27," acknowledging "there can be 5% up down". FY24 revenue was ₹3,185 crore and FY26 revenue ₹4,475 crore, with Q1 FY27 up 52.38% YoY; the FY27 full-year outcome is not yet available.
13. Mexico plant - production Q2/Q3 next year (October 2025) Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said the Mexico plant was expected to start production in "Q2 or Q3 of next year. So, October timeframe" - i.e., October 2025. By Q2 FY26 the plant, inaugurated around April-May 2025, was productionizing business transferred from India, with the first Mexico driveline plant order's production expected to start in Q2 FY28.
14. RED acquisition - earnings/EPS accretive from first year Pending - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected the RED (Escorts Kubota Railway Equipment Division) acquisition to be earnings/EPS accretive from the first year itself after closing. The railway business was acquired on 1 June 2025, contributing 8% of revenue in \~3 weeks in Q1 FY26 and a full quarter from Q2 FY26, with ROE improving by Q4 FY26; no explicit EPS accretion figure is disclosed.
15. Equity raise - up to ₹2,400 crore for acquisitions Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, the board approved an enabling resolution to raise up to ₹2,400 crore via equity and/or equity-convertible securities to fund potential acquisitions and strategic opportunities. A QIP of ₹2,400 crore was completed in September 2024, and the railway business acquisition was completed on 1 June 2025 for ₹1,642.63 crore.
16. Steering Bevel Gear Box - commercialize Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management added the Steering Bevel Gear Box to the technology roadmap "as a product we intend to commercialize". The steering bevel box was commercialized in Q4 FY25 with an order from an existing global commercial vehicle OEM, carrying a ₹110 crore orderbook addition and SOP Q3 FY26.
17. China plant repurposing - stop starter motors, focus on traction/suspension motors Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said the China plant would stop making starter motors and focus on other motors like traction motors and suspension motors. The starter motor line in the China plant was closed, and by Q3 FY25 the company confirmed it had shut the line 1.5 years earlier to focus only on suspension motors there.
18. NOVELIC product-development revenue - 18 to 24 months On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said NOVELIC product-development revenue was expected in the medium term, "I'd say, 18 to 24 months". A first product order (ACAM in-cabin child-presence-detection sensor) came in Q1 FY25 and a second in Q3 FY25, with productionization at the new Chennai SMT line and Novelic India SOP for the first customer launch targeted end of calendar 2026.
19. Seven new products - commercialization in 3-5 years or dropped On track - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said for the seven new products added to the roadmap, commercialization "could be as soon as the next few quarters to maybe never" but "three to five years is safe," with undeveloped products to be dropped and publicly announced. The Q4 FY26 PPT lists eVTOL Reduction Gearbox, AGV/AMR Drive Unit, Humanoid Motors/Components and others under development, and Q1 FY27 notes state 19 products were developed in-house with over 35% of revenue from products that did not exist 7 years ago.
20. Equipmake products - commercialization in 2025 Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected high-voltage traction motors and matching liquid-cooled inverters (Equipmake partnership products) to be commercialized in year 2025. The launch was pushed to Q4 CY25/Q1 CY26, then in Q1 FY26 the 2025 plan was called "no chance… next to impossible" without heavy rare earth magnets; by Q3 FY26 the products were still in validation stage.
21. Customer concentration - no customer above 15% of revenue in 3-5 years On track - At the Q4 FY23 call, management set a goal that no customer should be higher than 15% of revenue (then at 20%), to be achieved over 3 to 5 years. The largest EV customer's share fell from 23% in FY22 to 6% by Q2 FY26, with top 5 customers at 51% of Q2 revenue; no explicit disclosure confirms the 15% threshold was crossed and the horizon has not fully elapsed.
22. Global starter motor market share recovery - CY23 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management hoped for recovery in global starter motor market share in calendar year 23 as Europe and the US picked up. CY23 share improved from 4.1% to 4.2%, rose to 4.4% in CY24, and was 4.2% in CY25.
23. ESG target - 45% revenue from EVs by 2026 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management set an ESG target to increase revenue from products for electric vehicles to 45% of revenue by 2026, also stated as "over 45% of revenue from BEVs by FY 2025-26" in the FY23 sustainability report and annual report. The FY26 annual report states the 45% 'Low Carbon Mobility' revenue target was achieved ahead of schedule for FY ending 31 March 2026, with BEV revenue share alone at 35% of automotive revenue.
24. EDL order - start in less than 12 months, peak CY25/26 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said both new driveline order wins (EDL and the differential assembly for electric cars for the US market) must start in less than 12 months, with EDL to "kick off from the end of this year" and peak around 2026. The EDL was commercialized in FY23 and the program was on track for H2/Q4 FY24 production.
25. NOVELIC acquisition - close by end of Q4 FY23 Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management hoped to close the NOVELIC acquisition by the end of Q4 FY23, adding to numbers from Q1 FY24 onwards. The target slipped to Q1 FY24 and then to August 2023; the 54% stake acquisition completed in the first week of September 2023, with Q2 FY24 consolidating NOVELIC for one month.
26. Never invest in or buy a vehicle maker Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management committed it will "never... invest in or buy a vehicle maker" to avoid conflict of interest with OEM customers. No acquisition of or investment in a vehicle maker is recorded through Q1 FY27 - all deals (NOVELIC, Railway Equipment Division, ClearMotion, Neura Robotics MOU) were in components, sensors, software or robotics.
27. PLI incentives - large but unquantified Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said PLI scheme benefits would be "large, but we have not quantified it", later detailing a peak incentive rate around 15% starting at \~11% and quarterly accounting from FY26. Full-year FY25 PLI income was recognized in Q4 FY25 with 8 motors certified, and the first-year PLI benefit was received from the government in January 2026.
28. Majority of 27 programs - enter production within next six quarters Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said a majority of the 27 programs yet to enter serial production should enter production "within the next six quarters, so the full next year". Programs in production grew steadily - 3 in Q1 FY24 and 2 more in Q2 FY24 - reaching 27 EV programs in production by Q4 FY24.
29. Traction motor margins - 14-15% Pending - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said the traction motor business should make about 14-15 type margins, with returns much higher than the traditional business. Q1 FY27 notes describe traction motor growth as the "lowest-margin category" in the product mix, but no specific traction motor margin figure is disclosed.
30. Traction motor market share - 15% longer-term Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said traction motor market share would stay with "15" as the longer-term guidance. By Q1 FY27, Sona's 2W/3W traction motor market share in India was 25%, with management in Q3 FY26 describing the company as comfortably the largest player, or at worst 2nd largest by volume, in 2W traction motors.
31. C-Motive electrostatic drive motors - serial production likely 2026 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management estimated serial production of C-Motive electrostatic drive motors for EV applications would "likely start in 2026". The technology was flagged as a moon shot excluded from forecasts, later judged more suited to industrial applications than mobility; no serial production for EV applications is recorded.
32. Electric 2W/3W business - \~10% of revenue in FY24 Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said the electric two-wheeler and three-wheeler business should become about 10% of revenue in FY24, with traction motors at 1.5% of FY22 revenue hoped to reach "high single digit during FY23". Traction motors were 4% of revenue in FY23, 2.5% in Q1 FY24 and 5% in H1 FY24, approaching 10% only by Q4 FY26.
33. IMCM active suspension order - ₹400 cr revenue per year, SOP FY25, peak FY26 Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said the new IMCM (active suspension) order win alone adds ₹400 crore revenue per year, with SOP in FY25 and peak in FY26. Advanced suspension motors started serial production in Q3 FY25 at 0.2% of nine-month revenue, with the Nio ET9 launch in Q4 FY25 and 2026 the first year in hundreds of crores - the ₹400 crore run-rate was not reached by FY26.
34. Magnetless motor co-development - complete in 18 months Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management hoped to complete the magnetless motor co-development with IRP "in the next 18 months", later allowing the schedule could stretch another 6-18 months or be dropped if uncompetitive. The prototype was made and tested successfully but BOM cost was far higher than expected; a rare-earth-free Ferrite Assisted Synchronous Reluctance Motor was developed, tested and validated by Q2 FY26.
35. BLDC/PMSM 2W/3W motor capacity - 400,000 units by Q1 FY23 Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management said BLDC/PMSM motor capacity of 150,000 units/year was being increased to 400,000 units, "ready by the first quarter of FY23". By Q2 FY23, the Chennai plant had \~250K hub motors and \~75-100K PMSM motors installed at \~35-40% utilization; no later disclosure confirms the 400,000-unit capacity was reached.
36. Chakan plant - production by end March/April 2022 Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management targeted the new Chakan plant to be in production by end of March or April 2022. The Chakan plant was inaugurated on 10 April 2023, with the existing Pune facility shifted there in FY23 - roughly a year after the stated target.
37. European EV order wins - sizable revenue in FY23-24 Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said recent European EV order wins would become "sizable in revenue terms" in "23-24". Europe's revenue share fell from \~40% in FY22 to \~25% in H1 FY23, then recovered to 23% in Q1 FY24 and 26% in FY24, with Europe the fastest-growing market in Q3 FY24.
38. Starter motor customer concentration - below \~50% within 15-18 months Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said the starter motor business's single-largest-customer concentration should fall below \~50% "within the next 15 to 18 months". The business was "already approaching the <50% single-customer concentration mark" at the time, and later company-wide disclosures show no customer above 20% of revenue by Q4 FY23 and top-5 share down from 62% in FY22 to 51% in Q2 FY26.
39. Capex - ₹650 cr FY22 plus ₹300 cr FY23-24 Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided capex of about ₹650 crore for FY22 and roughly another ₹300 crore over the next two years to FY24; the FY22 estimate was revised down to \~₹450 crore and later bands evolved to ₹1,000-1,100 crore over FY23-25 and ₹1,000-1,200 crore over 2-3 years. Actual capex was ₹344 crore in FY22, and cumulative FY23-25 capex of \~₹1,069 crore (₹335 + ₹319 + \~₹415 crore) landed within the ₹1,000-1,100 crore band, with FY26 capex of ₹369 crore tracking the latest band.
40. EBITDA margin - 26-28% range, medium term Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided to an EBITDA margin range of 26%-28%, tending toward \~27% while commodity prices stayed firm, with the medium-term line stated as "27% EBITDA & 14% PAT"; the range was revised over time to 25-27%, briefly "above 28% in the near term", then 24-26% and finally 23-25% post-railway. Actuals were 26.2% in FY22, 28.32% in FY24, 27.26% in FY25, 24.30% in FY26 and 22.55% in Q1 FY27 - the latest band was met in FY26, with Q1 FY27 just below it, and the "above 28%" call held only for two quarters (Q4 FY24 27.94%, Q1 FY25 27.98%).