1. RIL CBM contract - potential up to ₹270 cr within 3-4 years Partial - In the FY23 CMD letter, the RIL CBM production contract was valued "initially of 84 Crs with a potential to go upto 270 Crs in next three - four years". FY25 brought a renewed RIL CBM order valued over ₹152 cr, and in Q1 FY27 a ₹166 cr CBM extension took the CBM order book to ₹222.2 cr plus extension, still short of ₹270 cr as the window ending March 2026-March 2027 closes.
2. FY25 revenue growth - 15-20% Delivered - In the FY24 annual report, with an order book over \~₹221 cr and new tenders under participation, the company was confident of achieving revenue growth of 15-20% with corresponding increase in profits. FY25 revenue grew 35.13% YoY to ₹180 cr, with standalone total income of ₹18,387.26 lacs, up 35% YoY.
3. FY24 EBITDA margin - 20-22% Missed - In the FY24 annual report, SWPEL expected EBITDA margins in the range of 20-22%, itself a step down from the earlier exploration guidance of 24-26%. FY24 OPM came in at 18.44% and the FY24 EBITDA margin at 18.52%, below the target range.
4. FY23 revenue growth - 15-20% Missed - In the FY23 MD&A, on an order book over \~₹290 cr plus ongoing tenders worth over ₹250 cr, management expected revenue growth of 15-20% with corresponding increase in profits. FY23 revenue grew 5.43% YoY to ₹124 cr, with standalone revenue of ₹12,809.25 lacs, up 6.16% YoY.
5. FY24 revenue growth - 15-20% Missed - In a Q2 FY24 announcement, management expected to make good the H1 shortfall in H2 and register overall top-line growth of 15-20% in FY24, reiterated in the FY24 annual report. FY24 revenue grew 7.37% YoY to ₹133 cr, with standalone revenue of ₹13,575.12 lacs, up 5.98% YoY.
6. Aquifer mapping - more projects expected "in the times ahead" Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 filing, following CGWB's PAN India aquifer mapping projects, management expected more aquifer mapping projects in the times ahead. Contracts worth ₹100 cr were won in FY25 across four states, over ₹100 cr more from CGWB in FY26, an order book of ₹575 mn by Q1 FY27, and aquifer mapping was 24.93% of FY26 revenue mix.
7. FY27 operating margin - \~24% over medium term On track - In the July 2026 CRISIL rationale, operating margin was expected at \~24% (the fiscal 2026 level) over the medium term. Q1 FY27 OPM was 24.19%, in line with the target, after FY26 OPM of 24.00%.
8. FY27 capex - ₹40-50 cr towards rig additions On track - In the July 2026 CRISIL rating announcement, SWPEL was expected to undertake capex of ₹40-50 cr in fiscal 2027 towards rig additions, funded through warrant proceeds, internal accrual and moderate debt. In Q1 FY27 the company placed orders for additional drilling rigs and equipment, hired rigs, and raised purchase orders for more rigs; no FY27 capex figure is yet in the record.
9. Reliance contribution - 35-40% of FY27 revenue On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided Reliance contribution to remain 35-40% of FY27 revenue, reiterated at the Q1 FY27 call "on the same line, (+/-5%)". In Q1 FY27 a Reliance CBM extension of ₹166 cr was won, taking the CBM order book to ₹222.2 cr plus extension; Reliance share of Q1 FY27 revenue of ₹61.7 cr is not separately disclosed.
10. Debt reduction - close FY27 at lowest level, from \~₹80 cr On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided debt should close at the lowest level this year, reducing from roughly ₹80 cr by close of FY27, and at the Q1 FY27 call expected the company to be "getting towards being a debt-free company" over the next two-three years. Net debt was around ₹15 cr as of June 30, 2026, with debt-equity below 0.39, against reported financials debt of ₹78.62 cr and D/E 0.39 as of latest reported.
11. New orders - sizable chunk within 3-4 months from Sep 2025 Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected a "sizable chunk" of new orders within the next three to four months, and at the Q4 FY26 call said, with tenders of ₹500-700 cr under participation, "should be getting new orders in next one to two months". Q3 FY26 order book reached ₹445 cr and Q4 FY26 order book ₹581 cr, including the ₹307 cr Hindustan Zinc order.
12. H2 FY26 better than H1 FY26 Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management firmly guided H2 FY26 to be better than H1 FY26. H1 FY26 delivered revenue of ₹103 cr, EBITDA ₹20 cr and PAT ₹11 cr; H2 FY26 delivered revenue of ₹140 cr (₹62.67 cr Q3 + ₹77.70 cr Q4), EBITDA ₹38.1 cr and PAT ₹22.27 cr, better on all metrics.
13. FY27 revenue growth - \~20% YoY On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided around 20% revenue growth for FY27, with substantial increase in bottom line, softly reiterated at the Q1 FY27 call - "should be able to achieve significant growth… hopefully, we will be able to keep up the momentum". Q1 FY27 revenue grew 53.4% YoY to ₹61.7 cr; no full-year FY27 read yet.
14. FY26 operating margin - 23-25% Delivered - In the December 2025 CRISIL rationale, operating margin was expected to improve to 23-25% in fiscal 2026. FY26 operating margin came in at 24.00%, within the guided range.
15. FY26 revenue growth - 15-20% YoY Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided FY26 revenue growth of 15-20% YoY, described as a "ballpark figure", echoed in the December 2025 CRISIL rationale expecting 15-20% growth in fiscal 2026. FY26 revenue grew 34.8% YoY to ₹243 cr, well above the range.
16. Reliance CBM phase-2 - revenue run rate ₹24-25 cr per quarter Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided CBM phase-2 revenue run rate of ₹24-25 cr, expected to be the same for the next couple of quarters. Q2 FY26 booked ₹24-25 cr from Reliance CBM phase-2; by Q4 FY26 Reliance contributed \~35% of total revenue, and in Q1 FY27 a ₹166 cr contract extension took the CBM order book to ₹222.2 cr plus extension, with Q1 share not separately disclosed against revenue of ₹61.7 cr.
17. Oman JV-2 block 22-B - exploration milestones, mining revenue around 2030 On track - At the Q4 FY25 PPT, the second Oman JV (Al Hadeetha Mining LLC) was announced as awarded exploration-cum-mining block 22-B in January 2025, with exploration in three to five years before mining starts and revenue expected around 2030. The airborne survey was completed by Q1 FY27 and the geological report is under preparation; no mining revenue yet.
18. Oman copper JV - 11-year USD 125 mn contract, 5-6% net margin, ₹2-3 cr assured yearly profit Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 filing, management guided an 11-year copper mining contract of USD 125 mn (\~₹938 cr) in Oman with net margin of 5-6% and assured yearly profit of ₹2-3 cr, operations starting February 2022; the margin line was later put at around 5-7%. Mining operations started February 2022; JV profit share was ₹1.32 cr in Q1 FY27 and ₹1.5 cr in FY26, with last-quarter JV profit around ₹3.5-4 cr and SWP share 35%.
19. Coal block capex - ₹400-450 cr, later ₹240 cr, later ₹200-220 cr phased Pending - At the Q3 FY22 filing, management guided total coal capex of \~₹400-450 cr in phases, since revised through \~₹240 cr to production start, ₹240 cr total with ₹72 cr upfront fee for effective ₹168 cr, ₹400+ cr in Phase 1 ₹225 cr and Phase 2 ₹175-200 cr, and now ₹200-220 cr phased over fiscals 2028 and 2029. No coal block capex is deployed yet - CWIP fell from ₹14.98 cr in FY25 to ₹0.40 cr in FY26 - with no coal production commenced.
20. Coal block EBITDA margin - 40-42% Pending - From the Q3 FY22 filing onward, management guided coal block EBITDA margins of 40-42%, restated in the FY23 MD&A - "We expect EBITDA Margins to be in the range of 40% to 42%", later revised at the Q4 FY26 call to EBITDA around 46% and IRR 40-45% based on coal index price. No coal production has commenced, so no coal block margin is observable; coal trading PBIT margin was 0.95% in FY25.
21. Coal block revenue - ₹700-800 cr from FY25-FY27, later FY26-FY28, later FY28 onwards Missed - At the Q3 FY22 filing, management guided \~₹700-800 cr of revenue from the coal business from FY25-FY27, revised at the Q4 FY23 PPT to FY26-FY28, in the FY25 AR to a FY2028 start with ₹700-800 cr in the following three years, and most recently to ₹300-400 cr per annum at full utilisation. No coal production revenue is recorded through Q1 FY27 - the FY25-FY27 and FY26 windows have lapsed with zero coal block revenue, distinct from ₹45.34 cr of FY25 coal trading revenue.
22. Coal block production start - FY2024-25, later FY2026-27, later FY2027-28, later FY2028-29 Missed - At the Q3 FY22 filing, management guided coal production from the Jharkhand block to start within 30 months from Feb 2022, specified as FY2024-25 in the Q4 FY22 and Q1 FY23 filings, since pushed to FY2025-26, FY2026-27, FY2027-28 and FY2028-29. As of Q1 FY27, exploration is complete and the geological report is under preparation, but the mining plan is not yet prepared and no production has commenced - the original FY2024-25 deadline and the 24-30 month window from March 2023 have both lapsed.
23. Entry into mining - 2-3x top-line growth, significant margin improvement, 5-7 year capex Missed - At the Q3 FY22 filing, management guided that entering the mining business would give over 2-3x growth in top line and significant margin improvement, with gradual capex over 5-7 years mainly financed by internal accruals and debt, reiterated through the Q4 FY24 PPT. FY26 revenue of ₹243 cr is \~1.8x FY23 revenue of ₹124 cr and \~1.8x FY24 revenue of ₹133 cr; coal mining/trading revenue was ₹45.34 cr in FY25 at a 0.95% PBIT margin with no coal mining revenue in FY26.
24. Core exploration services growth - 20-25% p.a. near-to-medium term Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 filing, management guided the core exploration service business to grow at \~20-25% per annum over the near to medium term, since moved down to \~15-20% p.a. in the FY23 AR, \~15% p.a. in the FY24 AR, and 15-20% CAGR over three to five years at the Q2 FY26 call. Exploration segment revenue grew from ₹92.38 cr in FY24 to ₹135 cr in FY25 to ₹243 cr in FY26, +34.8% YoY, with Q1 FY27 up 53.4% YoY, above the latest target.