1. FY28 ROA - 3.5% kind of ROA in BAU On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management stated the feasible ROA position is "3.5% kind of ROA" in BAU by FY28. Q1 FY27 ROA (on-book POS) was 1.1%; the FY28 target is still pending.
2. FY27 opex - around ₹675 cr On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, the CFO guided full-year FY27 opex of "more around ₹675 cr or so" against last year's \~₹760 cr. Q1 FY27 opex came down to ₹155 cr; the full-year target is still pending.
3. FY27 disbursements - ₹6,000-6,500 cr On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided FY27 business disbursements of "anywhere between ₹6,000 cr to ₹6,500 cr". Q1 FY27 disbursement was ₹1,371 cr; the full-year target is still pending.
4. FY27 credit cost - 2.5%-3% On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management reiterated the FY27 credit cost guidance of 2.5%-3%. Q1 FY27 annualized credit cost was 2.1%, running below the guided range.
5. Profitability - "aim to be in the black" for FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said "no guidance, but yes, we aim to be in the black" for FY27. Q1 FY27 PAT was ₹12 cr, a positive start to the year.
6. FY27 AUM - closer to ₹6,500 cr by March '27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management set an exit-AUM target of "closer to about ₹6,500 cr AUM by FY27" at March '27; at the Q1 FY27 call this was revised to "a little upwards of ₹6,000 cr" by March 2027. Q1 FY27 AUM was ₹4,887 cr; the March 2027 target is still pending.
7. Individual loan product - launch June or July (FY27 Q1/Q2) On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said the individual loan product under Criss Financial would launch in "the month of June or July". At Q1 FY27, a pilot in 8 branches in Madhya Pradesh over the next 3 months was planned, with no launch yet disclosed.
8. New LOS platform (Perfios) - 5 to 6 months away On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management planned to move to a new LOS platform by Perfios, "anywhere between 5 to 6 months" away; by Q1 FY27 the platform is to be in UAT by quarter-end, with migration October to December. At Q4 FY26 the migration "has started moving".
9. Criss Financial merger - 6 to 9 months On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management proposed merging Criss Financial with the parent, "might take about 6 to 9 months", within the coming financial year; at Q4 FY26 the process had begun with "another 5-6 months" expected. No completion was disclosed as of Q1 FY27.
10. Branch count - down to \~1,250 Missed - At the Q3 FY26 call, management planned to merge non-productive branches, bringing the count down from \~1,500 to about 1,250. 347 branches were merged or closed during FY26, but the count stood at 1,443 in Q1 FY27, above the 1,250 target.
11. PPOP positive - in coming quarters Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected to turn PPOP positive "in the coming quarters". Q3 FY26 PPOP was ₹8 cr, the first positive in about 2-3 quarters, and Q4 FY26 PPOP was ₹39 cr.
12. CEO succession - concluded in 30-45 days Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said the Board process should "get this concluded" in the "next 30 to 45 days". Venkatesh Krishnan joined as MD & CEO on 27th November 2025, about 5 months after the call.
13. Credit costs - BAU by Q3 or Q4 FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said BAU credit costs should come by Q3 or Q4 of FY26, with elevated percentages in the first half normalizing in the second. Q3 FY26 credit cost was about ₹58 cr, Q4 FY26 impairment was ₹(18) cr, and Q1 FY27 annualized credit cost was 2.1%.
14. Equity raise - up to ₹750 cr "confidence capital" Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, the Board approved raising up to ₹750 cr of "confidence capital", with steps to be initiated now; shareholder approval came in March 2025 and a ₹400 cr rights issue closed on 11 August 2025. The ₹400 cr partly paid rights issue concluded in FY26 with full promoter and institutional participation, within the approved envelope.
15. FY26 AUM growth - \~15% off year-end FY25 Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management targeted \~15% AUM growth for FY26, later framed as "about 20% kind of growth" and reiterated at Q1 FY26. FY26 AUM ended at ₹4,420 cr, down 35% from ₹6,819 cr at FY25 end.
16. Fourth-lender cap - self-imposed 3-lender limit Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management committed that new borrowers would not have Spandana as a fourth lender, stopping at three - tighter than MFIN guardrails - reiterated at Q3 FY25. Lender overlap (Spandana+3) was \~4.8% at Q4 FY26 and \~3.7% at Q1 FY27.
17. FY25 credit cost - about 3.75% Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided full-year credit cost at about 3.75%, a raise from "more like 2.5%" the prior quarter. FY25 credit costs ran roughly 23-24% of average AUM, far above the guidance.
18. Opex/AUM - 5.5% to 6% steady state Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management reiterated steady-state opex of "anywhere between 5.5% to 6%" against the then-current 6.6%, later allowing 6-6.25% and "below 6.5%" by FY25 end, and by Q4 FY26 a medium-term 7% to 8%. FY24 opex/AUM was 6.7%, FY26 was 15.9% and Q1 FY27 was 13.3%.
19. ROE - 17% to 19% Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management projected ROE anywhere between 17% to 19%. FY24 ROE was 14.9%, FY25 ROE was -39.31% and FY26 ROE was -30.8%.
20. Vision 2028 - ₹28,000 cr AUM by FY28 Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management articulated "Vision 28 / 28 by 28" - a ₹28,000 cr portfolio by FY 2028, reiterated at Q4 FY24. By Q3 FY26 the FY28 expectation was revised to ₹9,000-10,000 cr of AUM, framed as "broadly... a ₹10,000 cr or thereabouts" at Q1 FY27, against Q1 FY27 AUM of ₹4,887 cr.
21. Project Parivartan - stabilize in 3-4 months Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said Parivartan disruptions were temporary, with stabilization in "the next three to four months". The timeline was pushed back repeatedly through FY26, with GNPA rising from 2.6% in Q1 FY25 to 5.62% in Q2 FY26 before standalone GNPA fell to 2.6% in Q3 FY26 and 3.8% in Q4 FY26.
22. State contribution - 10-12% max by end FY25 Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said by end of FY25 no big state should exceed 10%-12% contribution, with 12% max the comfort zone; at Q4 FY24 the target was set at no state more than 13% by end FY25. At Q4 FY25 the top 4 states were \~50% of AUM, with Odisha 13%, Madhya Pradesh 13%, Bihar 12% and Andhra Pradesh 11%.
23. Seven focus states - 22-23% of AUM by end FY24, \~40% by end FY25 Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said seven focus states would reach \~22-23% of AUM by end FY24 and \~40% by end FY25; Haryana later dropped out, leaving six. Focus states contributed 28% of AUM at Q4 FY24 but only \~22% (North India) in FY25.
24. BAU ROA - 4.5% stabilizing by Q4 FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said BAU ROA of 4.5% "by the last quarter" of FY24 "should start stabilizing". Q1 FY24 ROA was already 6% and FY24 ROA on book POS was 5.5%.
25. FY24 credit cost - \~2% for full year Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said FY24 should end at \~2% credit cost on \~₹10,000-odd cr average AUM. FY24 BAU credit cost came in around 1.9% against the 2% envisaged.
26. FY24 AUM - \~₹11,500 cr Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management set an FY24 AUM target of about ₹11,500 cr, later raised to ₹11,750-12,000 cr and "about ₹12,000 cr", then framed as ₹11,500-12,000 cr. FY24 AUM ended at ₹11,973 cr, within the guided range.
27. Cost-to-income - 36-39% sweet spot Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said cost-to-income between 36-37% and 38-39% is a good number, later framed as "starting with 35% or until 39%" and "south of 40 and upwards of 35". FY24 cost-to-income was 42.8%, deteriorating to 80.5% at Q4 FY26 and 79.5% at Q1 FY27.
28. Non-microfinance business (MSME and LAP) - soft launch Q1 FY24 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said the non-microfinance business (MSME and LAP loans) would soft launch during Q1 of next year. LAP relaunched in Q4 FY23 on a new LMS/LOS, launched in Rajasthan in Q1 FY24 with a book around ₹51-52 cr, and nano MSME opened in Q2 FY24 with \~25 lakhs and 27 loans.
29. Borrowers per loan officer - 450-500 destination model Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management targeted borrowers per loan officer of about 450 to 500 and AUM per loan officer of 1.25 to 1.3 cr over the next few quarters, with interim milestones of 380-400 and 440-450 set at Q2 FY24. Borrowers per loan officer fell from 317 in Q2 FY24 to 228 in Q4 FY25 and \~200 in Q4 FY26.
30. Branch expansion - 560 branches by Q1 FY25 Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management planned 560 new branches to be opened by max Q1 FY2025, later consolidated into \~1,500 operational branches by end FY24. Q4 FY24 closed with 1,642 branches, 142 above the 1,500 target.
31. New-customer share of disbursements - 46%+ until FY25 Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management planned to disburse 46%+ of disbursements to new customers and continue this until FY2025. Q2 FY23 saw 46% to new customers, \~50% of Q4 FY23 borrowers were new to Spandana and \~55% during FY24.
32. Customer-relationship mix - single-lender + one-plus-one from 67% to 80%-81% Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, Shalabh Saxena set a Vision 2025 target for single-lender plus one-plus-one relationships to go from 67% to 80%-81% over the next two to three quarters. Q4 FY23 combined share was 65.3%, Q2 FY24 was 68-69% and Q3 FY24 was 30% single-relationship plus 31% Spandana+1.
33. Bank share of borrowings - closer to 75% over next couple of quarters Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, Ashish Damani aimed to lift bank exposure in the borrowing mix to closer to 75% over the next couple of quarters, with capital market exposure around 25%. Bank share ran 55%-59% through FY23-FY25, and was 47% at Q1 FY27.
34. Net collection efficiency on new book - 98.5%-99% by Q4 FY23 Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided net collection efficiency on the post-April 2021 book to move from 97.5% to upwards of 98.5%-99% over "this quarter and the next quarter". It was 94.5% in Q3 FY23 and 97.57% in Q4 FY23.
35. Post-April 2021 book share - upwards of 90% by end Q3 FY23 Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated the post-April-2021 book share would be upwards of 90% by end of Q3 FY23. By Q3 FY23 the pre-April '21 book was down to 7.7% of AUM, implying \~92.3% for the new book.
36. Customer acquisition - 4.5 lakh new customers in FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management set a target to take the customer base to 0.28 crore, i.e., 4.5 lakh customers for the year. FY23 acquisition was 8.8 lakh new customers, 166% growth over 3.3 lakh the previous year.
37. FY23 disbursements - \~₹8,300 cr Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management reiterated full-year disbursement guidance of \~₹8,300 cr, with \~₹7,000 cr remaining after Q1; at Q2 FY23 the target was confirmed at ₹8,100 cr. FY23 disbursements were ₹8,125 cr, 141% above FY22's ₹3,373 cr.
38. Fund raise - ₹5,800-6,000 cr over next 8-9 months Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, Ashish Damani guided a need to raise about ₹5,800 to ₹6,000 cr over the next eight to nine months, calling the pipeline "well achievable". FY23 total borrowings were \~₹5,775 cr, up 208% over FY22.
39. Leverage - \~3x by end FY23 Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, Ashish Damani guided leverage "maybe \~3x by end of the year" (FY23), later softened to "any number south of 4x" until FY2025. Q4 FY24 gearing was 2.66, FY25 gearing 2.1x and FY26 gearing 1.9x, never reaching 3x.
40. NIM - north of 12% (12%-12.5%) by Q3-Q4 FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management targeted NIMs of "12% to 12.5%" by Q3 and Q4 FY23, raised to "north of 12.5%" at Q2 FY23. NIM was 13.8% in Q3 FY23 and 13.86% in Q4 FY23, peaking at 15.2% in Q1 FY25 before falling to 12.5% by Q1 FY27.
41. Paperless organization - within a quarter (Q2-Q3 FY23) Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, Shalabh Saxena committed to a paperless organization "in a quarter from now and between Q2 and Q3", with escalations on risk, control and audit triggered by technology. The new tech stack rolled out to the field in Q2 FY23, geotagging of all 3.5 lakh centers was done in Q3 FY23, and the FY24 annual report records IT migration, IVR and e-signature implementation.
42. FY25 ROA - 4% to 5% steady state Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, Ashish Damani reiterated FY2025 guidance of 4% to 5% ROA in steady state, later framed as 4.5% BAU ROA by Q4 FY24 and 4.5-5% long term. FY24 ROA on book POS was 5.5%, but FY26 ROA was -10.5% and Q1 FY27 ROA was 1.1%.
43. FY23 profitability - 4% to 4.75% ROA (normalized, pre-credit-cost) Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management clarified the FY2023 guidance of 4% to 4.75% ROA as normalized profit without credit cost, with a "clear probability" of reporting those numbers. FY23 actually closed with PAT of ₹12 cr after a one-time ₹702 cr write-off, well short of the guided ROA.
44. Steady-state credit cost - not more than 2% Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, Ashish Damani reaffirmed steady-state credit cost of not more than 2%, achievable "by end of this financial year" on a quarterly basis, and 2% was built into plans through FY25. FY24 BAU credit cost was \~1.9%, but FY25 credit costs ran roughly 23-24% of average AUM; Q1 FY27 annualized credit cost was back at 2.1%.
45. FY25 microfinance book - ₹15,000 cr JLG + ₹2,000-3,000 cr individual/high-ticket Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management reiterated the FY2025 vision of a ₹15,000 cr JLG book plus \~₹2,000-3,000 cr of individual/high-ticket loans, restated as ₹18,000 cr total AUM by end FY25 at Q4 FY23. FY25 ended with AUM of ₹6,819 cr, a 43% decline, with the JLG book at \~₹5,554 cr and Criss Financial LAP/Nano at ₹233 cr.
46. FY23 AUM/loan book - \~₹9,200 cr by end FY23 Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management reiterated FY2023 AUM guidance of \~₹9,200 cr; at Q2 FY23 this was revised down to ₹8,000-8,500 cr. FY23 ended with AUM of ₹8,511 cr - above the revised range's midpoint but below the original ₹9,200 cr.