1. Chennai AMRUT (HAM) order - construction within 2 years, NRW <20% Pending - In February 2026, CMWSSB accepted SPML's bid for continuous water supply of Pallipatu WDS & Thiruvanmiyur WDS, Chennai under HAM: ₹344.64 cr including GST, with a 2-year Construction Period and 15-year Operation Period. The project is in early stages, with the construction and NRW reduction targets not yet reached.
2. NARCL shareholding - maintain 12.5% via preferential issue On track - Per the Master Restructuring Agreement dated May 17, 2024, SPML committed to maintain its NARCL shareholding at 12.5% via preferential issue of shares on conversion of existing debt. By Q2 FY26, post warrant conversion, additional shares were to be issued to keep NARCL at roughly 12.5%, with ₹37.68-69.27 cr of Zero Coupon NCDs retained for that purpose; no disclosure of the holding falling below 12.5%.
3. Preferential issue proceeds - ₹183.18 cr utilized within one year On track - Management committed to utilising ₹183.18 cr of preferential issue proceeds within one year of receipt: ₹100 cr for BESS Facility Enhancement and Container Manufacturing, ₹37.39 cr for Working Capital, ₹45.79 cr for GCP. Monitoring agency reports confirm utilization on schedule, with ₹30.01 cr of GCP proceeds utilized as of March 2026.
4. Offer document objects - completed within 24 months Delivered - The offer document committed Margin Money, Working Capital and General Corporate Purposes objects to completion within 24 months. Monitoring agency reports from May 2025 through May 2026 all reported the objects "On Schedule", with GCP deployed on ₹4.50 cr NARCL repayment, ₹18.53 cr MIDC BESS land lease and ₹6.98 cr BESS vendor payment.
5. SPML 2.0 - no contract without price variation clause On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, under SPML 2.0, management targets not taking any contract without a PV clause. The FY27 ₹5,000 cr "criteria projects" intake target includes the PV clause as a criterion, and the record holds no disclosure of any order taken without one.
6. NTPC BESS supplies - commence Q4 FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management targeted NTPC BESS supplies commencing in Q4 FY27 subject to approvals, completing within NTPC's FY28 contractual timeline, with design approvals expected by Q3 FY27 and sample container approval by December 2026. The NTPC advance is received, surety bonds given, IEC/UL certifications are being obtained, and ₹200-300 cr of BESS execution is expected in Q4 FY27.
7. FY27 order inflow - more than ₹5,000 cr On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 inflows "not less than last year" with a ₹5,000 cr water order book target (SPML share ₹2,500-3,000 cr), and at Q1 FY27 was "hopeful of surpassing" the ₹5,000 cr guidance. Q1 FY27 intake was ₹1,293 cr with ₹212-265 cr of L1, taking the order book to \~₹5,094-5,100 cr.
8. FY27 profit growth - more than 25% On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided more than 25% growth in FY27 at margin level with minimum 25% bottom line growth "for a few more years", reaffirmed at Q1 FY27. Q1 FY27 PAT grew 87% YoY to ₹22.7 cr.
9. FY27 revenue growth - more than 25% On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided "reasonable growth of more than 25% in financial year '27 at both the top line and margin level", maintained at Q1 FY27. Q1 FY27 revenue grew 74% YoY to ₹286 cr, with new-order impact expected mainly from Q4 FY27.
10. Power substation order - at least one in FY26 Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected at least one power substation order in FY26, later pushing a sizeable ₹200-500 cr order to "next year" at Q3 FY26. In Q1 FY27, SPML won a ₹165.4 cr RRVPNL order for a 400 kV Grid Substation at Kota, Rajasthan - secured in FY27, not FY26.
11. Credit rating upgrade - by September-October 2025 Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, the company expected an improved ICRA rating from BBB- by September or October 2025. ICRA affirmed a 'Stable' profile through FY26 and, by Q1 FY27, upgraded the long-term rating to BBB (Stable), with CRISIL also assigning BBB (Stable).
12. FY26 order inflow - ₹4,000-5,000 cr Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected ₹4,000-5,000 cr of order inflows during FY26, later citing a ₹5,000 cr target as "very closely achievable". 9M FY26 inflows reached ₹4,324 cr, with the consolidated order book entering Q4 at ₹5,369 cr.
13. Water-power revenue mix - 50:50 by 2029-2030 On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected a roughly 50% water / 50% power mix once the BESS facility is fully set up, timed at Q1 FY26 to "by 2029 or 2030" from \~90:10. The mix remains \~90:10, but the ₹1,128 cr NTPC BESS order, ₹165.4 cr RRVPNL order and Q1 FY27 BESS commissioning have begun the power-side ramp.
14. BESS localization - 70% within 2-3 years On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management stated almost 70% of BESS commodities would be localized within 2-3 years, from \~70% imported at start. By Q2 FY26 only cells and PCS were to be imported with the rest localized within Pune, and at Q1 FY27 battery cells still come from China; no localization percentage has been disclosed yet.
15. BESS break-even - within 1 year, deadline lapsed Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management stated break-even in battery pack manufacturing was expected within 1 year. That deadline lapsed around June 2026; by the Q1 FY27 call the facility's first phase was only recently ready, IEC/UL certifications and NTPC approvals were still pending, and no break-even disclosure was made.
16. BESS capacity utilization - 60-75% in first year Pending - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected \~60-75% capacity utilization in the first year, later tightening the ramp to full capacity within 3-4 months of manufacturing start. As of Q1 FY27 (Aug 2026), Phase 1 (2.5 GWh) is targeted for Q1 FY27 and is fully ready, but IEC/UL certifications and NTPC container supply are still pending - no commissioning or utilization data has been disclosed.
17. BESS revenue potential - ₹1,000-1,500 cr at full capacity On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management put battery pack plant revenue at full capacity "near to ₹1,000 to ₹1,500 cr", later revising the potential to \~₹2,500 cr for 2.5 GW and ₹4,500-5,000 cr for 5 GW. The ₹1,128 cr NTPC order ties up \~40% of Phase 1, with ₹200-300 cr of execution expected in Q4 FY27; full-capacity realization has not yet begun.
18. BESS first order - at least one in FY26 Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected "at least one order of battery energy storage system in this financial year, 2025-2026", with order values from ₹500-1,000 cr. The company's first grid-scale BESS order - NTPC, ₹1,128 cr for 1 GWh - was secured during FY26.
19. BESS manufacturing plant - 2.5 GW by Q1 FY27, 5 GW by FY28 On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management planned a 2.5 GW battery pack unit with ₹175 cr total capex in two phases, phased as 2.5 GW by Q1 FY27 and 5 GW by FY28, with the 5 GW expansion later moved to H1 FY28. The 2.5 GW line at Supa MIDC, Pune is fully ready as of Q1 FY27 with IEC/UL certifications underway; actual capex is ₹236 cr including land.
20. FY26 EBITDA growth - 30-35% Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, the CFO restated guidance that "total EBITDA should grow more than around 30% to 35%". FY26 EBITDA was ₹86 cr, up 37% YoY per management, with the reported financials showing FY26 OPM of 7.60% on ₹83.47 cr EBITDA.
21. FY26 PAT growth - 40-50% Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided FY26 PAT growth of \~40-50%, after the CFO's Q4 FY25 personal view of 50% bottom-line growth. FY26 PAT was ₹74.68 cr, growth of 55% YoY as confirmed by management.
22. FY26 revenue growth - 30-50% jump Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management targeted a FY26 revenue jump "from 30% to 50%", later revised to \~25-30% growth and a ₹900-1,000 cr guide. FY26 revenue was ₹868 cr, growth of 12.69%, with management acknowledging a ₹50-100 cr turnover shortfall attributed to execution calibration and March constraints.
23. Order inflow target - ₹2,000 cr for FY25 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, the CFO said "Definitely, we will target to ₹2,000 crore" for FY25 order inflow, with the bar raised through FY25 to "at least ₹5,000 cr including L1" by Q4 FY25. FY25 closed with an order book of \~₹3,000 cr plus L1 of ₹2,571 cr, including Konar (₹618 cr) and Chennai (₹258 cr) wins.
24. Arbitration award realization - ₹600 cr from ₹4,090 cr claims On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected to realize "roughly around ₹600 cr of arbitration" from ₹4,090 cr claims in process, including \~₹190 cr from the Arunachal award at the Supreme Court. Awards in hand grew from ₹636 cr (March 2025) to ₹627 cr (April 2026) to ₹678 cr (June 2026), with ₹312 cr realized over three years against claims of ₹4,417-4,526 cr.
25. NARCL sustainable debt repayment - ₹700 cr in 8 years On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management stated clear visibility of paying ₹700 cr in 8 years under the NARCL/IDRCL restructuring, with minimum cash flow payments of ₹8-12 cr per year. Cumulative repayments reached ₹325 cr by June 2026 - the FY26 annual report confirms ₹320.01 cr repaid against a scheduled ₹271 cr - with the balance down to ₹375 cr and backed by ₹621-678 cr of arbitration awards.
26. Debt reduction via property sale - ₹40 cr in FY25 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected debt to reduce by a further ₹40 cr "by sale of identified properties" during FY25. By Q3 FY25 the property sale agreement was executed, with the advance received and paid to NARCL; per the FY26 Annual Report, cumulative NARCL repayment stood at ₹320.01 cr as at 31 March 2026, exceeding the scheduled ₹271 cr commitment by ₹49.01 cr.
27. Vivad se Vishwas balance receipt - ₹50-51 cr in FY25 Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected the entire remaining ₹50 cr Vivad se Vishwas balance in FY25, with the PPT stating ₹51 cr "will be received shortly". Of ₹294 cr total VSV realization, ₹243 cr was received in FY24; the Q4 FY25 PPT still listed ₹11 cr as "to be received shortly", with no FY-end confirmation of full receipt.
28. Fully funded projects only - standing policy On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management committed: "we have decided internally, that we will not take the project if it is not fully funded". New orders are all from funded schemes - Konar (NABARD), Indore (AMRUT), Kekri (JJM 2.0), NTPC BESS - and the FY27 ₹5,000 cr "criteria projects" target lists funded projects and escrow among its criteria; JJM 2.0 payments resumed after 11-12 month delays.
29. New order margin discipline - minimum 10% EBITDA on all new business On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management set an internal target of 15-20% EBITDA on new business, later firmed through FY25-FY26 into a minimum 10% margin rule on all orders including EPC and OEM. New orders (Konar, Kekri, Indore) all carry margins above 10%, while blended margins reflect the legacy mix - FY26 full-year OPM was 7.60% and Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin 9.9-10%.
30. Order book execution - ₹1,300 cr existing book at 50:50 FY25/FY26 Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said the existing ₹1,300 cr order book would "majorly execute into this year and next year" at a 50:50 FY25/FY26 split. FY25 revenue was ₹771 cr and FY26 ₹868 cr against the implied ranges, with management acknowledging a ₹50-100 cr FY26 shortfall and the legacy book - down to ₹1,251 cr by June 2026 - now spilling into FY27 and FY28.