1. QIP for Rajasthan - \~₹1,500 crores Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, management passed an enabling resolution to raise around ₹1,500 crores to fund the Rajasthan expansion, with the QIP to be considered once net debt/EBITDA reached 1.5. No QIP had been executed as of Q1 FY27, when management said it was not actively being considered.
2. Net debt/EBITDA below 1.5x, later below 2x On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management committed to keeping debt-to-EBITDA below 1.5x, a target maintained in the Q4 FY26 PPT and relaxed to below 2x in the Q1 FY27 PPT. At Q4 FY26 net debt was ₹200 crores against EBITDA of ₹902 crores - about 0.22x.
3. FY28 capex - \~₹1,500 crores Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management raised FY28 capex guidance to about ₹1,500 crores from the earlier ₹1,000 crores, and confirmed it at the Q1 FY27 call. The FY28 horizon has not been reached, so there is no execution read yet.
4. FY25-26 in-house clinker availability - remove external clinker purchases Delivered - In the FY25 annual report, management stated that from FY 2025-26 in-house clinker availability would remove the need for external clinker purchases. No external clinker purchases were disclosed in FY26, and clinker sales reached 3.5 lakh tons for the year, including 1.15 lakh tons in Q4.
5. FY26 revenue growth - double-digit percentage Delivered - In the FY25 annual report, management projected revenue to grow by double-digit percentage in FY 25-26. FY26 revenue was ₹3,776 crores vs ₹3,163 crores in FY25, a growth of 19.38%.
6. Thermal Substitution Rate (TSR) - 15% by FY25, later 20% by FY26/FY27 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 PPT, management set a TSR target of 15% by FY25, raised to 20% by FY26 and extended to FY27. TSR was \~13.5% at Q4 FY25 and the 20% target was achieved in Q4 FY26, though it slipped in Q1 FY27 on heavy rain and supply constraints.
7. 2 crore tons capacity by FY30 On track - At the Q4 FY23 call, management set a target of being a 2 crore tons company over 5-to-10 years, later softened to aspirational and reset at Q2 FY26 to 1.8-2 crore tons by FY29-FY30 with 2 crore tons "a little bit stretched". The roadmap targets 14.7-16.7 MTPA cement by FY29.
8. Northeast market share - 30-32% Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management targeted taking Northeast market share to close to 30%, 32%, from 24-25% then, reaffirming "we want a 30% market share in Northeast". Share was about 27-28% in Q1 FY26, \~27% at Q4 FY26 and \~24.2% at Q1 FY27.
9. Jorhat grinding unit (0.2 crore tons) - commissioning by FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided a Jorhat grinding unit of 0.2 crore tonnes with capex of about ₹450 crores, commissioning in the next two years (FY27), later deferred and tied to the Umrangso clinker plant about 3.5 years out. Jorhat land was acquired and an EC application was being filed.
10. Bihar grinding unit (0.2 crore tons) - commissioning by FY28-FY29 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided a Bihar grinding unit of about 0.2 crore tons, targeting first-half FY28 if started within 3-5 months, later pushed to Q1-Q2 FY29. Land was acquired in Bihar with government approval received, though the Q1 FY27 call left a West Bengal alternative pending policy.
11. Rajasthan (Nimbol) expansion - 0.3 crore tons clinker + 0.4 crore tons grinding, \~₹2,400-2,500 crores On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided a Rajasthan greenfield of 0.25 crore ton clinker plus grinding for about ₹2,500 crores, later expanded to 3-million-ton clinker and 0.4-0.5 crore ton grinding at ₹2,400-2,500 crores with commissioning in 1H FY29. By Q1 FY27 the Nimbol land purchase was completed with EC expected in October 2026 and ground-breaking planned for Q3 FY27.
12. FY27 non-cement revenue - \~₹150 crores On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 non-cement revenue of about ₹150 crores with margins of about 7-8% to start, clarified at Q1 FY27 as an ARR basis expected by Q4. Q1 FY27 other revenue was ₹8 crores vs ₹2 crores in Q1 FY26.
13. FY27 capex - ₹500 crores, later ₹600-700 crores On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management revised FY27 capex to ₹600-700 crores, then reaffirmed ₹500 crores at the Q1 FY27 call. Q1 FY27 capex spent was about ₹93 crores, consistent with either full-year plan.
14. FY27 EBITDA per ton - ₹1,500-1,600 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided EBITDA per ton of ₹1,500-1,600 as "still a good estimate" for the year, narrowing the ₹1,500-1,700 range given at Q4 FY26 for the next 2-3 years. Q1 FY27 EBITDA per ton was ₹1,497, with Q2 expected around ₹1,400 and catch-up in H2.
15. FY27 incentive income - \~₹145-150 crores, later revised to \~₹115 crores On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 incentives about ₹40-50 crores below FY26's ₹184 crores, implying roughly ₹145-150 crores, revised down at Q1 FY27 to about ₹115 crores after an Assam circular spread the subsidy over remaining years. Q1 FY27 subsidy fell ₹39 crores YoY on the GST rate reduction.
16. FY27 volume growth - 10-12%, later revised to 8-9% On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 cement volume growth of about 10% to 12% over FY26's \~0.53 crore tons, lowered at Q1 FY27 to about 8-9%. Q1 FY27 cement volumes grew 7% YoY with July degrowth of about 12%, and management expects catch-up in Q3 and Q4.
17. FY26 non-cement revenue - \~₹45 crores, later \~₹50-60 crores Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected FY26 AAC block revenue of about ₹50-60 crores, trimmed to around ₹45 crores at the Q3 FY26 call. FY26 building materials revenue was ₹43 crores, with \~₹17 crores in Q4.
18. AAC block plant (800 TPD) - commissioning by August 2024, later revised Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided the 800 TPD AAC block unit to be commissioned in August 2024 with FY25 revenue of \~₹35-40 crores, with the timeline slipping through October 2024, December 2024 and Q4 FY25. The plant was commissioned on 2nd June 2025 and generated ₹43 crores of building materials revenue in FY26.
19. FY26 capex - \~₹820 crores, later \~₹710-720 crores Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 capex of about ₹823 crores, reiterated near ₹820 crores at Q1 FY26 and lowered to \~₹710-720 crores at Q2 FY26. Disclosed quarterly spend totalled roughly ₹581 crores - 9M capex of ₹431 crores plus guided Q4 capex of about ₹150 crores.
20. FY26 incentive income - ₹220-250 crores, later ₹180-190 crores Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided incentives of ₹220-250 crores per annum for the next couple of years, lowered at Q2 FY26 to about ₹180-190 crores on the GST rate cut. FY26 subsidy/incentive income was ₹184 crores.
21. FY26 EBITDA per ton - ₹1,500-1,550 Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management reiterated FY26 EBITDA guidance of ₹1,500-1,550 per ton, later clarifying a whole-company range of ₹1,300-1,400 before guiding ₹1,500-1,700 for the next 2-3 years at Q4 FY26. FY26 EBITDA per ton was ₹1,738, with Q4 at ₹1,871.
22. FY26 volume target - 0.54-0.55 crore tons Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management reiterated an FY26 volume target of about 0.55 crore tons, clarified at Q3 FY26 as \~0.53 crore tons including clinker. FY26 cement and clinker sales were 54.96 lac tons, hitting the upper end of the guidance.
23. FY25 incentive income - ₹150-160 crores Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 GST/subsidy benefit of ₹150-160 crores, confirmed at the Q1 FY25 call. FY25 incentives booked were ₹167 crores, including ₹75 crores in Q4.
24. FY25 capex - \~₹1,000 crores, later \~₹835 crores, then \~₹720 crores Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 total capex of about ₹1,000 crores, lowered to \~₹835 crores at Q1 FY25 and to about ₹720 crores at Q2 FY25. FY25 capex came in at about ₹562 crores, after nine-month spend of around ₹440 crores.
25. FY25 EBITDA per ton - \~₹1,550, later \~₹1,500 Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided blended FY25 EBITDA per ton of about ₹1,550, lowered to \~₹1,500 at the Q1 FY25 call. FY25 EBITDA per ton was ₹1,245, though Q4 recovered to ₹1,749.
26. FY25 volume growth - 18-20%, later revised to 14-15%, then 7-8% Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided FY25 volume growth of "somewhere in the range of 18%, 20%", lowered to \~14-15% at Q1 FY25 and to around 7% to 8% by Q3 FY25. FY25 cement and clinker sales of 47.31 lac tons vs 44.43 lac tons implied growth of \~6.5%.
27. FY24 volume growth - 12-13%, later 13-14% Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided FY24 volume growth of more than 12%-13%, raised at Q2 FY24 to "around 13%, 14% at least", with the FY23 annual report targeting 12%-15%. FY24 cement sales of 44,04,208 MT vs 40,13,643 MT implied growth of \~9.7%, with management attributing the miss to plant delays.
28. Premium (ARC) cement sales - 10% share by end of Q2 FY23, later revised Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management targeted \~10% premium (ARC) cement sales by end of the next quarter from \~8% in June, a target repeatedly revised to 11% by FY23, 7-8%, 10% by FY24, double by FY25 and \~18% by FY26. Premium share stayed \~7% in Q2 FY23, reached 17.1% in Q3 FY26 and was 15.1% in Q4 FY26.
29. Debt for capex - peak at ₹500-650 crores, repaid by FY25 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided peak capex debt of roughly 500-650 crores to be repaid in 2-3 years, later capped at ₹500 crores with a debt-free-by-March-2025 target that "stands completely intact" at Q2 FY24. Gross debt was ₹583 crores and net debt ₹200 crores at Q4 FY26, within the peak range but past the debt-free date.
30. AFR project - \~5% kiln AFR substitution from Q3 FY23, 15-17% green energy in 6-7 months Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the AFR feeding system within \~6 months with \~5% kiln substitution and 15-17% of energy from renewable/green sources in 6-7 months. By Q4 FY23 cumulative AFR reached \~25% of the fuel mix, and green substitution stood at 18% by Q1 FY26.
31. WHRS for new Meghalaya line (11-12 MW) - commissioning with new plant Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided an 11-12 MW WHRS to commission with the new Meghalaya plant by end of the next calendar year, a timeline that slipped to August-September 2024 and then Q4 FY25 in phases of 6 MW each. The 12 MW WHRS was commissioned in March 2025 and reached \~27.4% of the power mix by Q4 FY26.
32. WHRS (12 MW plant) - commissioning by December 2022 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected the WHRS plant in October 2022 after a vendor delay, with the timeline slipping to end-December 2022 and then February 2023. The 12 MW WHRS was commissioned in April 2023; in Q1 FY24 it averaged \~5.6 MW of 12.3 MW, saving about ₹9 crores, before stabilizing at 10-11 MW.
33. Clinker debottlenecking - capacity from \~0.26 to \~0.27 crore tons in FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected clinker capacity to be pushed from \~0.26 crore tons to \~0.27 crore tons in FY23, about 1 lakh ton more clinker. FY23 clinker production reached 0.27 crore MT, up 25.13% from 0.22 crore MT in FY22.
34. FY23 volume growth target - \~17% / 0.4 crore tons Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management targeted FY23 volume growth of \~17% to \~0.4 crore tons from 0.34 crore tons in FY22, reiterated through Q3 FY23. FY23 cement sales were 40,13,643 MT (\~0.40 crore tons), with Q4 sales of 12.35 lakh tons closing the year on target.
35. Siliguri plant utilization - \~60-65% for FY23 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided Siliguri utilization at \~60-65% for FY23, revised to \~65-66% at Q2 FY23. FY23 full-year utilization was \~55%, though Q4 FY23 reached \~73%.
36. Total capex for clinker plant plus two grinding units - \~₹2,000 crores Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided total capex of \~2,000 crores for the clinker plant plus two grinding units, revised to \~₹2,100 crores and later \~₹2,400 crores before individual budgets came down at Q3 FY24. The clinker plant completed at \~₹1,250 crores and Guwahati at \~₹385 crores, within the revised envelope.
37. Silchar grinding unit (0.2 crore tons) - commissioning by March 2024, later revised Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided a third grinding unit in South Assam of \~0.15-0.2 crore tons, with the March 2024 target repeatedly pushed through June 2024, August 2024, mid-2025, December 2025 and finally Q4 FY26. The Cachar GU (2.0 MTPA) was commissioned on 19th February 2026, with the railway siding expected by October-November 2026.
38. Guwahati grinding unit (0.2 crore tons) - commissioning around December 2023 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the 0.2 crore ton Guwahati grinding unit for commissioning around December 2023, with the date drifting to 1st March 2024 by Q3 FY24. Commercial production at the Sonapur unit started on 12th March 2024, and utilization reached 90% in FY25.
39. Clinker plant (0.3 crore tons, Meghalaya) - commissioning by December 2023 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the 0.3 crore ton Meghalaya clinker plant to start construction the next month with commissioning by December 2023, later pushed to 31st March 2024. Commercial production from the 3.3 MTPA Lumshnong line commenced on 21st April 2024, with stabilization issues persisting until the kiln produced at 70-80% capacity by Q4 FY25.