1. Capacity enhancement - Concast and 8mm rolling mill completion (2024) Partial - In July 2024, management stated the Concast was ready for commissioning and the 8mm rolling mill would be completed within three months, raising rebar capacity to 357,000 MTA. The expansion was completed in March 2025 - billet capacity reached 362,000 MTPA and rolling mill 357,000 MTPA - a delay of approximately five months from the \~October 2024 target.
2. Kothapeta unit - billet and TMT bar production by 1st October 2024 Missed - The FY24 annual report stated the Kothapeta unit was being modified to 74,000 TPA billets and a 94,000 TPA TMT bar rolling mill, with production expected by 1st October 2024. No disclosure in our record confirms commissioning by that date or thereafter, and the unit is absent from the FY25 annual report capacity table.
3. Fund raise - up to ₹700 crore for growth, PLI scheme entry Pending - The Board approved raising up to ₹700 crore through permissible instruments to strengthen the balance sheet and support entry into specialty steel under the PLI Scheme. A ₹350 Cr preferential warrant issue was approved and ₹85 crore received upfront, but no disclosure on PLI scheme application has been made yet.
4. Pledged shares - released completely in coming times Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated pledged shares will be released completely in coming times once the company leverages finances from IMR. Promoter shares remained 100% pledged as of Q1 FY26, and our record holds no disclosure of any pledge release through Q4 FY26.
5. FY27 volumes - almost double Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated volumes for FY27 will be almost double, with capacities mostly doubled. Q4 FY26 rebar sales volume was 49,760 tons; FY27 has just commenced with no read yet.
6. Debt reduction - debt to go down to negligible levels in FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated debt will go down almost to negligible levels in FY27, with the company committed to becoming debt-free in the near future. Cumulative debt reduction reached ₹102 crore, with \~30% of long-term debt discharged since December 2025, and debt stood at around ₹270 crore as of Q4 FY26.
7. IMR Resources balance payment - ₹300 cr within six months (by \~November 2026) Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated the balance payment of ₹300 crore from IMR Resources against share warrants would come in the next six months. ₹85 crore was received upfront as part of the ₹350 crore preferential issue, and the balance ₹300 crore is not yet due.
8. Capacity expansion to 1.5 million tons (0.15 crore tons) - phased, once debt-free Pending - At the Q3 FY21 PPT, management guided phased expansion to 0.15 crore tons with a DPR by M.N. Dastur, later conditioned on becoming debt-free at the Q1 FY26 call. Current SMS capacity stands at 3.6 lakh tons; MOUs have been signed for 150 acres and a green steel plant, but no groundbreaking or capex deployment has occurred yet.
9. Surplus land monetization - \~₹3 cr per acre total value Pending - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided that the remaining 100 acres of surplus land for real estate development should yield around ₹3 crore per acre total value. Current market value was stated at ₹1.2-1.5 crore per acre, and no disclosure of any land sale or monetization proceeds exists in our record through FY26.
10. FY26 annual guidance - Revenue ₹1,400-1,500 cr, EBITDA ₹170-180 cr Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided FY26 revenue of ₹1,400-1,500 crore and EBITDA of ₹170-180 crore. FY26 actual total income was ₹1,066.42 crore and EBITDA was ₹138.03 crore, falling short of the guided range by \~24-29% on revenue and \~19-23% on EBITDA.
11. Refinancing of high-cost debt - interest rate reduced from 18.75% to 13.25%, then 12% Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided refinancing would reduce the interest rate from 18.75% to 13.25% in the first year, then to 12%. Debt cost was reduced to 13% in FY26, and the company achieved an investment-grade credit rating of IVR BBB-/Stable.
12. Rights issue - up to ₹200 cr, planned September 2025 Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided a rights issue of up to ₹200 crore was planned for September 2025, with around ₹75 crore earmarked for debt repayment. No rights issue was completed; the plan was superseded by a ₹350 Cr preferential warrant issue with IMR Group subscribing to ₹300 Cr worth of warrants.
13. SEIL Infra Logistics - ₹14-15 cr minimum annual net profit; additional ₹30-35 cr profit if operated on own Pending - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided SEIL Infra Logistics would target ₹14-15 crore minimum annual net profit, with revenue generation expected from Q4 FY26. The subsidiary was incorporated on June 29, 2025 and was yet to commence operations as of Q1 FY26; no disclosure of revenue or profit generation exists in our record through FY26.
14. Bobbili integrated wire complex - investment of \~₹100 cr, taken up in FY27 Pending - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided the Bobbili integrated wire complex would be taken up in FY27 with investment of roughly ₹100 crore, once land formalities with the government were completed. No further disclosure on the Bobbili project appears in subsequent quarters, and the Q4 FY26 call discussed new MOUs but did not mention Bobbili.
15. Own-production EBITDA per ton - ₹7,500 Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided own-production EBITDA per ton would rise from ₹6,600 to around ₹7,500. Q4 FY26 EBITDA per ton reached around ₹9,000-9,500, and the full-year FY26 average was around ₹6,800-7,000, with the Q4 spike exceeding the original ₹7,500 target.
16. RINL conversion contract - operational by December 2025, generating ₹27 cr incremental annual EBITDA Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided the RINL conversion contract for 1.2 lakh tons per annum would be operational by December 2025, generating ₹27 crore incremental annual EBITDA. The contract was secured, but the reheating furnace to support it was guided for commissioning by July 2026 at the Q4 FY26 call, indicating the December 2025 operationalization date was missed.