1. FY24 guidance - advances \~35%, deposits \~35%, cost of funds \~7.5%, CTI \~57%, NIM \~10%, ROA \~2.2%, ROE \~15%, CASA \~22%, GNPA/NNPA <2.5%/<1.0% Partial - At the Q3 FY24 PPT, management stated "On Track to Achieve FY24 Guidance" with these metrics. FY24 actuals showed advances +41.5%, deposits +50.5%, cost of funds 7.3%, CTI 57.1% ex-CGFMU, NIM 9.8%, ROA 2.1%, GNPA 2.8%, NNPA 0.8%; ROE of 12.9%, CASA of 20.1%, and GNPA missed.
2. FY26 guidance - secured mix 55%, advances 30-35%, deposits 40-45%, CASA 22%, GNPA <5%, NNPA <3%, Q4 ROA 1.1-1.2%, ROE 10-11% Partial - At the Q4 FY25 PPT, management guided FY26 on these metrics; at Q2 FY26 ROA was revised to \~1.2% and ROE to 8-9%. FY26 closed with secured mix 55.0%, CASA 22.6%, and Q4 ROA 1.1% met, while advances grew 29.4%, deposits 32.3%, GNPA was 6.5%, NNPA 4.2%, and Q4 ROE 9.8%.
3. MSME business - scale across 200+ branches, ₹50 cr/month, 15% CASA Missed - At the Q4 FY25 PPT, management guided scaling MSME across 200+ branches targeting ₹50 cr/month with 15% CASA. MSME disbursements were ₹10 cr/month with a ₹30 cr book at March 2025; the book reached ₹166 cr at March 2026 and ₹207 cr at June 2026, without reaching ₹50 cr/month.
4. Credit on UPI - \~10 lakh approved customers by March 2026 Missed - At the Q3 FY26 call, management projected "probably around closer to 10 lakh customers would have been approved" for credit on UPI by March 2026. CLOU had \~11 lakh pre-qualified customers, 5.3 lakh sanctioned, and 2.4 lakh utilized at March 2026 - sanctions of \~5.3 lakh fell short of \~10 lakh approved.
5. FY26 CGFMU claim - \~₹150 cr Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, the CFO expected a CGFMU claim of around \~₹150 cr for FY25, to be claimed in Q1 or Q2 of FY26; at Q1 FY26 this became \~₹300-odd cr in Q3 FY26, and at Q4 FY26 FY27 claims of ₹450-550 cr. A third CGFMU claim of \~₹313 cr was made in September 2025 and 100% received, larger and later than the original estimate.
6. FY25 GNPA/NNPA - under 3%/1% Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected GNPA less than 3% and NNPA less than 1% at the end of FY25. FY25 GNPA was 7.2% and NNPA 4.6%, more than double the guided levels.
7. FY25 Pre-POP - \~₹570-580 cr Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided full-year Pre-POP in the range of \~₹570-580 cr. FY25 Pre-POP was ₹389.2 cr after CGFMU expense, \~₹180-190 cr below the guided range.
8. CASA ratio - at least 20% over next 3 quarters Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, the CEO targeted a CASA ratio of at least 20%, achieved sequentially over the next 3 quarters. CASA moved from 17.7% at June 2024 to 17.9% at September 2024, 19.5% at December 2024, and 20.9% at March 2025, reaching the target within the window.
9. Bulk deposits - 20-30% range, ideally \~20% Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, the CEO said bulk deposits would be kept in the range of 20% to 30%, ideally adjusted around 20%. Bulk deposit share was 18.9% at March 2025, 14.0% at March 2026, and 12.7% at June 2026, staying below the 20% floor.
10. Cost of funds - 7.6% to \~7.90% in FY25 Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, the CFO expected cost of funds to move from 7.6% to somewhere close to 7.90% in FY25. FY25 cost of funds was 7.8%, close to the guided 7.90%.
11. Micro-banking ambition - impact 1% of Indian population (\~35 lakh households) in 2-3 years Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management aimed for positive impact on 1% of the Indian population (\~35 lakh households) over 2-3 years; the Q4 FY25 PPT targeted 1% of Indian households (\~0.35 crore customers) by 2025. The customer base was 0.34 crore at March 2025, 0.42 crore at March 2026, and 0.62 crore at June 2026, crossing 35 lakh by FY25.
12. Branch expansion - \~70 branches per year Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management endeavored to keep expanding like last year, \~70 branches added; later guidance included 40-50 per year at Q1 FY25, 100 new branches for FY27, and \~50 across Q1 and Q2 FY27. Branch network grew from 695 to 710 in FY25 (+15) and to 717 in FY26 (+7), well below the \~70/year pace.
13. Universal banking license - apply in \~1 year Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said the bank would take about a year to fulfill all criteria to apply for a universal bank license; at Q1 FY25 the CEO said the road map would be considered seriously at end-FY25, and at Q2 FY25 management stated intent NOT to apply in the next 1-1.5 years. No application was made through Q1 FY27.
14. New customer acquisition - 40,000-50,000 per month Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management intended to increase new customer acquisition to at least 40,000-50,000 per month. Q4 FY24 microfinance customer additions were 122,000 versus \~90,000 in Q3, implying \~40,000+ per month, and Q1 FY25 added \~60,000-70,000 Vikas loan customers per month.
15. Cost of funds - stabilize at current levels Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected cost of funds to stabilize at current levels. Cost of funds rose from 7.3% in FY24 to 7.8% in FY25 before moderating to 7.5% by Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27.
16. FY25 cost-to-income including CGFMU - \~57% Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management targeted cost-to-income including CGFMU in the region of 57% for FY25. FY25 CTI including CGFMU was 70.6%, \~14 percentage points above the target.
17. FY25 credit cost - 1.5-1.8% Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 credit cost to remain in the range of 1.5% to 1.8%; guidance was later revised to 2.7-3% at Q1 FY25, \~2% full-year at Q2 FY25, and \~1.5-1.6% on balance sheet basis at Q3 FY25. FY25 net credit cost after CGFMU recovery was \~₹170 cr, \~1.7-1.8% on balance sheet basis, landing at the top of the original range.
18. PCR - stay close to 70% Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management endeavored to stay very close to 70% PCR going forward; at Q1 FY25 the CFO said PCR would be sustained above 80%. PCR was 71.2% at March 2024, fell to 37.7% at March 2025 and 37.3% at March 2026, then recovered to 81.8% at June 2026.
19. Vikas Loan pricing - reduce from 28% to \~24% over 1 year Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management intended to reduce Vikas Loan pricing from 28% to around 24% over the next 1 year; pricing was cut to less than 26% from 1st August 2024 and from \~28% to \~26% by Q3 FY25. VL yield was \~25-25.25% in Q1 FY27, short of the 24% target.
20. Capital raise - 15-18 months away Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said a capital raise would be "anywhere between 15 to 18 months away"; at Q4 FY26 the CFO said the bank would look to raise funds in course of the year, Tier 2 most likely first, and at Q1 FY27 Tier 2 proposals were being evaluated with hopes to close that quarter. No raise occurred through Q1 FY27, with CRAR at 20.0% at June 2026.
21. FY25 loan and deposit growth - 30-35% advances, 40-45% deposits Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 loan book growth of 30-35% and deposit growth of 40-45%; at Q2 FY25 advances growth was lowered to 25-26%. FY25 advances grew 18.5% and deposits grew 36.0%, both below the original bands.
22. FY25 CGFMU expense - ₹70-80 cr Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected FY25 CGFMU expense "somewhere in the range of 70 to 80 crores". FY25 CGFMU expense was ₹72.6 cr, within the guided band.
23. FY25 CGFMU claims - ₹45-50 cr gross Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management targeted gross CGFMU claims of "somewhere in the region of 45 to 50 crores" for FY25; at Q2 FY25 the CFO expected \~₹150 cr to be claimed in FY26. Only one claim of ₹32 cr was made in FY25, below the ₹45-50 cr target.
24. First CGFMU claim - Q1 FY25 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management targeted making the first CGFMU claim in Q1 FY25, with \~₹40-45 cr of NPA eligible. The first CGFMU claim of ₹32 cr was made and 100% received in Q1 FY25.
25. Digital/partnership deposit sourcing - double-digit share in 12-18 months Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management expected digital partnerships to expand to "the early single digits or touching a double-digit number over the next 16 - 12 to 18 months". Digital deposits reached ₹1,000 cr by Q1 FY26, ₹1,300 cr / 10%+ by Q2 FY26, ₹1,672 cr / 12% by March 2026, and ₹2,222 cr / 15% by Q1 FY27.
26. Employee cost - salary growth \~50% of asset growth Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management targeted salary-bill growth "to be approximately closer to 50% of the growth in assets". Employee expense rose \~50% YoY in Q3 FY24 against asset growth of 40.5%, and Q1 FY27 employee expense rose 18.6% YoY against advances growth of 32.5% - the ratio was not consistently held at 50%.
27. Vikas Loan digital repayments - 30% to 50% Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management intended to take Vikas Loan digital repayments from \~30% to 50%. VL UPI collections reached 42% by March 2026 and 42% in Q1 FY27, while \~75% of VL customers pay digitally or by SI - below the 50% direct target.
28. Vikas Loan collection efficiency - back to 99.5% Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management wanted to take Vikas Loan collection efficiency from \~98% back to 99.5%; targets were later reset to 99.5% for the current bucket, \~98.4%, \~98.5%, and 99%+. VL collection efficiency was 98.0% in FY24, 98.8% in Q4 FY25, and nearing 99.0% in Q2 FY26, never reaching 99.5%.
29. Affordable housing loan GNPA - under 2% Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management's endeavor was to get affordable housing loan GNPA "to under 2% in the first place". HL GNPA was 2.2% at March 2024, 0.5% for total mortgage at March 2025, and 1.9% at March 2026, achieving the target by FY26.
30. Micro mortgage disbursements - \~₹50 cr by end of FY25 Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management targeted micro mortgage disbursements moving up "INR2 crores, INR2 crores every quarter… probably are naming it around closer to INR50 crores at the end of the next financial year". The micro mortgage portfolio was ₹406 cr at March 2025 and ₹603 cr at March 2026, implying disbursements well above the ₹50 cr target.
31. Inclusive finance product mix - 50-50 VL/JLG Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management set a steady-state target of 50-50 between Vikas Loan and JLG; at Q4 FY26 VL had reached 75% of the IF book and at Q1 FY27 individual loans were \~80% of monthly onboarding. The VL share moved from \~45% in Q3 FY24 to 53% in Q4 FY24, 60% in FY25, 75% in FY26, and 74.7% in Q1 FY27.
32. Composite branch conversion - 25-50 branches in FY25 Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management intended to convert "closer to around 25 to 30 branches or more during the next financial year" (later stated as 30-50) of the 383 asset-focused outlets into composite branches. At March 2025, asset-focused outlets fell from 392 to 126 and liability-focused rose from 109 to 387, far more than 50 conversions.
33. Refinance funding - \~30% of funding maintained Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management reaffirmed the plan to maintain \~30% of funding from refinance institutions. Borrowings were \~20% of total liabilities at March 2024 and 18.4% at June 2024, below the \~30% target.
34. CD ratio - 100% by end of FY25 Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management committed to deliver 100% CD ratio by end of FY25 as a regulatory pledge; this was reaffirmed at Q1 FY25 and reiterated as less than 100% at Q4 FY25. CD ratio was 96.9% at March 2025, meeting the commitment.
35. PPOP - \~₹120 cr per quarter Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management stood by PPOP guidance of \~₹120 cr per quarter, expecting to "deliver consistently about INR45 crores and thereabouts" pre-operative profit by quarter-end. Q3 FY24 PPOP was ₹127.2 cr ex-CGFMU / ₹114.2 cr including CGFMU and Q4 FY24 operating profit before CGFMU was ₹142 cr, at or above the guided level.
36. Sustainable ROA - \~3% in \~18 months, 4% over time Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said sustainable ROA of \~3% would take "around 18 months or so", with Q4 FY24 exit ROA at \~2.75% then building to 4%; the ambition was walked back at Q3 FY24 and reset repeatedly to 2.3-2.5%, \~2% for FY25, 1.5-1.6% for FY26, \~1.2%, and 1.3-1.4% rising to 1.6% by Q4 FY27. FY25 ROA was 0.9%, FY26 ROA 0.9%, and Q1 FY27 ROA 1.6%.
37. CASA - ₹1,500 cr / \~20% by end of FY24 Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management targeted taking CASA balances from ₹1,000 cr to \~₹1,500 cr by end of FY24, closing the ratio close to 20%. CASA was ₹1,566 cr / 20.1% at March 2024, above the balance target and at the ratio.
38. FY24 NIM - 9.5-10% full-year Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management maintained full-year FY24 NIM guidance of 9.5% to 10%. FY24 NIM was 9.8%, within the guided band.
39. Capital - no raise needed for FY25 at 35% growth Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management stated a 35% growth book would NOT require a capital raise in FY25 from a regulatory point of view. No capital raise occurred in FY25 and CRAR was 25.8% at March 2025, well above regulatory minimum.
40. Cost-to-income - 50% by Q4 FY25 Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management set a cost-to-income roadmap: immediate target below 55%, then "by the end of next financial year, last quarter, we are able to reach a 50% number". CTI including CGFMU was 70.6% in FY25 and 84.7% in Q4 FY25, against 57.1% ex-CGFMU in FY24 - the 50% level was never approached.
41. Growth guidance - 35-40% YoY for next three years Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management reiterated guidance of "about 35% to 40% on a year-on basis for the next three years"; this was re-guided to 30-35% at Q3 FY24, \~25-26% for FY25, 30-35% for FY26, \~30%, and 20-30%, with FY27 advances growth guided at 30-35%. Advances grew 41.5% in FY24, 18.5% in FY25, 29.4% in FY26, and 32.5% YoY in Q1 FY27.
42. FY24 branch additions - 70-75 inclusive finance + 30-35 retail Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management reaffirmed "70 to 75 additional branches in the inclusive Finance segment" and "30 to 35 branches additionally on the retail banking" in FY24. Branch network grew from 577 to 695 in FY24 (+118 total), with asset-focused outlets up 68 and liability-focused up 14 - inclusive adds near target, retail adds well short.
43. FY24 provisions - \~₹20 cr per quarter for Q3 and Q4 Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided provisions of \~₹20-odd cr per quarter for Q3 and Q4 FY24, "not more than that". Q4 FY24 provisions were ₹48.2 cr and FY24 total provisions ₹166.3 cr, more than double the quarterly cap.
44. Vikas loan FY24 portfolio - \~₹2,500 cr (raised from ₹2,000-2,200 cr) Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management raised the Vikas loan FY24 portfolio build target to \~₹2,500 cr from the beginning-of-year guidance of ₹2,000-2,200 cr; at Q3 FY24 the ₹2,500 cr book was re-guided. Vikas loan AUM surpassed ₹2,600 cr by Q4 FY24, above the raised target.
45. Vikas loan customers - \~4.5-5 lakh by end of FY24 Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management targeted "closer to around 4.5 lakhs to 5 lakhs customers at the end of the year" for Vikas loans, from \~3 lakhs at the time. Vikas loan customers crossed 4.3 lakh by Q4 FY24 and 4.8 lakh by Q1 FY25, with the FY24 exit slightly below the lower bound.
46. Lendingkart partnership book delinquency - bring down over next six months Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said the Lendingkart partnership book (\~₹150 cr, \~6% delinquency) was "hoping to bring it down over the next six months". Partnership book GNPA was 12.7% at March 2024 and the book shrank to ₹119 cr by March 2025 - GNPA rose over the window.
47. CGFMU annual expense - \~₹50-55 cr for FY24 Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided CGFMU annual expense "closer to around INR50 crores to INR55 crores... We stay around the INR55 crores" for FY24. FY24 CGFMU expense was ₹52.6 cr, within the guided band.
48. Cost of deposits - no rise from Q2 FY24 peak Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, the CFO stated cost of deposits had peaked and "from here on... we don't intend to see a rise in our cost of deposits"; at Q1 FY25 the CFO guided cost of funds from 7.6% to \~7.90% on SLTRO maturity. Cost of deposits rose from 7.6% in FY24 to 7.8% in FY25, with cost of funds moving from 7.3% to 7.8% before moderating to 7.5% by Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27.
49. Micro secured (home loan) disbursement - ₹10-20 cr in Q3 FY24 Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management planned to expand secured business loans into small tickets of ₹3-10 lakh and targeted \~₹10-20 cr of micro secured (home loan) disbursement "in this quarter". Q3 FY24 micro mortgage disbursement was ₹15-18 cr per month with portfolio \~₹200 cr, and the Q4 FY24 micro mortgage portfolio was ₹235 cr.
50. Credit cost in unsecured business loans - normalized \~1.5-2% Pending - At the Q2 FY24 call, management targeted credit cost in unsecured business loans on a normalized basis at \~1.5% to 2%. No product-level normalized credit cost disclosure appears in our record after Q2 FY24; the book (partnership/MSME) stayed small at \~₹100-300 cr through FY26, crossing ₹115 cr by Q3 FY26 and ₹207 cr by Q1 FY27 with GNPA of 2.3-3.0%.