1. FY27 term loan repayment - almost deleveraged On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, the CFO said significant term loans will get repaid during the current year and next year, post which the company will be "almost deleveraged". In Q1 FY27, gross borrowings declined \~₹130 cr via scheduled repayments; full deleveraging is not yet due.
2. FY27 order inflow - >₹10,000 cr On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, the CEO guided order book additions "definitely more than ₹10,000 cr" in FY27. Q1 FY27 order inflow was ₹2,641 cr; the full-year target is not yet due.
3. FY27 O&M portfolio ramp - 4-5 GW per annum from own EPC On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, the CEO expected O&M ramp-up of 4-5 GW per annum from own EPC projects and \~2 GW from third parties. The Q1 FY27 O&M portfolio reached 18.3 GW, up from 13.5 GW in FY26 - \~4.8 GW added in one quarter.
4. FY27 Australia arbitration LD recovery - ₹110 cr from promoters On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, the CFO expected the \~₹110 cr LD portion of the Australia arbitration covered under indemnity to be realized in the current fiscal from promoters. Q1 FY27 saw \~₹120-130 cr expected to be realized under indemnity in the current year; no specific LD recovery confirmed yet.
5. FY27 credit lines - additional sanctions Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, the CFO was hopeful of additional credit lines as new orders and revenue visibility improve. By Q1 FY27 the company had cumulatively obtained fresh credit lines of more than ₹3,200 cr, up from \~₹2,800 cr in FY26.
6. FY27 overheads - 4-4.5% of revenue max On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected overheads in the range of 4-4.5% max; at Q1 FY27 the CFO noted overheads in absolute number will not increase and the percentage should come down. Q1 FY27 recurring overheads were ₹79 cr on ₹1,590 cr revenue, \~5.0%, slightly above target.
7. Reliance utility-scale orders - traction in FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected traction (orders) from Reliance New Energy in FY27: "traction would be seen in this financial year, I'm sure". As of Q1 FY27 no order has been received; terms are not yet closed and transactions will be on arm's-length basis.
8. FY27 BESS order share - \~20% of new order inflows Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected \~20% of new order inflows to come from battery/BESS going forward. Q1 FY27 order inflow was ₹2,641 cr, 100% international via the Egypt solar+BESS project with a 600 MWh BESS component; no separate BESS-only share disclosed yet.
9. FY27 O&M revenue - ₹400-450 cr On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, the CFO expected O&M revenue of ₹400-450 cr in FY27. Q1 FY27 O&M revenue was ₹84 cr, annualizing to \~₹336 cr; the full-year outcome is not yet due.
10. FY27 revenue growth - 15% (later 10-15%) On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 revenue growth of \~15% over FY26, revised at Q1 FY27 to 10-15% growth. Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹1,590 cr, down \~10% YoY; the full-year outcome is not yet due.
11. FY26 international order inflow - ₹1,000-2,000 cr Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management targeted international order inflow of ₹1,000-2,000 cr for FY26, revised at Q1 FY26 to $250-300 million (\~₹2,000-2,500 cr). FY26 international order inflow was \~₹2,403 cr, 24% of ₹10,062 cr, meeting both targets.
12. FY26 revenue - 15-20% growth Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 revenue growth of 15-20% over FY25, reiterated at \~20% through Q1 FY26, Q2 FY26 and Q3 FY26. FY26 revenue was ₹7,548 cr, +20% YoY, at the top of the range.
13. FY26 order inflow - 15-20% growth / ₹10,000 cr Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 order intake growth of \~15-20%, with a \~₹10,000 cr target set at Q3 FY25 and raised at Q3 FY26 to >₹11,000 cr (>60% YoY growth). FY26 order inflow was ₹10,062 cr, +43% YoY - above the original target, below the raised one.
14. Reliance pilot project - completion in FY25 Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected the RIL pilot project (solar + BESS, Jamnagar) to be completed within FY25, with Q2 FY25 guiding Q3 FY25 completion. By Q4 FY25 the pilot was almost completed and under commissioning, with a few parcels commissioned, and at Q1 FY26 the project was "doing well".
15. Rating upgrade - expected shortly (Q4 FY24) Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected a rating upgrade "shortly" with significant improvement, reiterated at Q1 FY25 as "very, very shortly". The rating was upgraded from D to BB+ in Q1 FY25, then BBB- in Q2 FY25 and BBB+ in Q1 FY26.
16. FY25 interest cost - ₹30-35 cr annualized Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, the CFO guided interest cost on remaining term debt at ₹30-35 cr annualized, revised at Q1 FY25 to FY25 interest cost "in the region of about ₹50 cr, ₹55 cr all in". FY25 interest expense ranged 1.2-1.7% of revenue, \~₹76-107 cr on ₹6,302 cr revenue, above both guided levels.
17. FY25 O&M revenue - close to ₹270 cr Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected O&M revenue of close to ₹270 cr in FY25 vs ₹210 cr in FY24. FY25 O&M revenue was ₹237 cr, below the \~₹270 cr target.
18. FY25 revenue - ₹8,000-9,000 cr / ₹8,000 cr+ Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, the CFO summarized FY25 revenue expectation of ₹8,000-9,000 cr ex-Reliance, ex-Nigeria, reiterated as ₹8,000 cr plus through Q1 FY25 and Q2 FY25, then revised down at Q3 FY25 to \~₹6,000-6,500 cr. FY25 revenue was ₹6,302 cr, within the revised range but below the original.
19. FY25 order inflow - ₹8,000 cr ex-Reliance, ex-Nigeria Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 order inflow of \~₹8,000 cr, excluding Reliance and Nigeria, described as conservative, reiterated through Q1 FY25, Q2 FY25 and Q3 FY25. FY25 order inflow was ₹7,051 cr, 88% of the target.
20. Indemnity claims - ₹250 cr+ crystallizing in FY24, paid H2 FY24 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected indemnity claims crystallizing in FY24 "in the range of approximately upward of ₹250 cr", paid by promoters in H2 FY24, raised at Q3 FY24 to \~₹400-450 cr by September 2024. A ₹418 cr claim was raised in September 2023 with proceeds called up coming in by the due date; \~₹800 cr of indemnity items were settled from inception by Q1 FY25.
21. FY24 revenue - ₹6,000-7,000 cr (analyst-framed, management "striving for much higher") Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, when asked about FY24 revenue of ₹6,000-7,000 cr, management said "striving for a much higher" number. FY24 revenue was ₹3,035 cr, well below the range discussed.
22. Net debt reduction - significantly by Q4 FY24 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, the CFO targeted debt to come down significantly by Q4 FY24, with deleveraging to commence from Q2 FY24, reiterated at Q1 FY24. Net debt fell from ₹1,967 cr in March 2023 to ₹116 cr in March 2024, a \~94% reduction.
23. Overhead reduction - 15-20% savings Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management identified 15-20% savings in overhead costs to be reflected in coming quarters, with FY24 overheads targeted at ₹300-320 cr vs \~₹360 cr last year. FY24 overheads were ₹333 cr, \~13% below FY23's ₹382 cr and slightly above target; FY25 recurring overheads were \~₹320-330 cr and FY26 ₹349 cr.
24. Return to 10-11% gross margin - FY24 onwards Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided gross margins on all new non-legacy projects at 10-11%, with the CFO guiding a return to 10-11% blended gross margin going forward, reiterated through Q2 FY26, then revised to 8-10% at Q3 FY26 and maintained since. Gross margins were FY24 10.3%, FY25 10.1%, FY26 10.5% and Q1 FY27 9.9%, within the respective guided ranges.
25. Consolidated EBITDA turn green by Q2 FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, the CFO guided consolidated EBITDA should turn green by Q2 FY24. Q1 FY24 standalone operational EBITDA break-even was achieved, and Q2 FY24 reported positive consolidated EBITDA, on schedule.
26. Nigeria D&EPC agreement - finalization by Q1/Q2 FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management was working to finalise the D&EPC agreement for the Nigeria project, valued above $1.5 billion, by Q1/Q2 FY24, with the timeline repeatedly pushed - "very soon" at Q4 FY24, "very, very soon" at Q2 FY25, status quo at Q2 FY26, and "may not happen in FY27" at Q4 FY26. As of Q1 FY27 the agreement remains unsigned, four years after the September 2022 MOU, with a ₹2,038 cr impairment provision taken in Q2 FY26 citing "inordinate delays".
27. FY24 domestic order inflow - ₹4,000-5,000 cr / 4-5 GW Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected close to ₹4,200 cr of orders in India in FY24, expanded at Q1 FY24 to ₹4,000-5,000 cr from the domestic market and 4-5 GW of orders. FY24 domestic order inflow was ₹4,854 cr, within the range.
28. FY24 order inflow - $1 billion ex-Reliance, ex-Nigeria Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided FY24 order booking of $1 billion on a steady-state basis, excluding Reliance and one-off big projects like Nigeria, with 10-15% YoY growth, reaffirmed at Q4 FY23 as in excess of USD 1 billion over and above Nigeria and group company business and reiterated at Q1 FY24. FY24 order inflow was ₹6,023 cr, \~$720M at \~₹83/$, \~72% of target.
29. O&M margins - return to 30-35% / normalize from Q2 FY23 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management stated blended gross margin on running O&M jobs continues to be 35%, with normalization expected from Q2 FY23 onwards; the range was later revised down to 25-30%, then 20-25%, and \~20% stabilization guided at Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27. O&M gross margins were FY24 16.01%, FY25 \~21%, FY26 15.46% and Q1 FY27 \~23.8% - never back to the original 30-35%.
30. FY23 overheads - 10-15% higher than FY22 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, the CFO guided FY23 overheads to be "slightly higher, maybe 10% to 15% higher" than FY22. FY23 overheads were ₹382 cr vs \~₹360 cr recurring in FY22, an increase of \~6%, below the guided ceiling.
31. Steady-state EBITDA margin - 5-7% Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, the CFO guided steady-state EBITDA margin of 5% to 7%, more likely 5% to 6%, later reframed through 7-8% going forward, 4-6% operational and \~4-5% at \~9% average gross margin. FY26 operational EBITDA margin was \~5.9% (₹444 cr on ₹7,548 cr) and reported 6.4%, within the original 5-7% range.
32. FY23 domestic order inflow - ₹1,000-1,200 cr Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management targeted order inflows of ₹1,000-1,200 cr for the Indian domestic market in FY23, excluding captive Reliance work. FY23 domestic order inflow was ₹4,387 cr, with all orders domestic, exceeding the target \~3.7x.
33. FY23 international orders - 1.5 GW, $700M-$1B Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management targeted closing \~1.5 GW of international orders in FY23, valuing $700 million to $1 billion, from a pipeline of \~12 GW, folded at Q1 FY23 into a \~$1 billion total EPC order target and reaffirmed as on track at Q2 FY23. FY23 new orders were entirely domestic; the first international order after three years came only in Q3 FY24 with Spain.
34. FY23 order booking return to pre-COVID levels - order inflow target Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected order booking to return to pre-COVID levels in FY23, with pre-COVID inflows of ₹6,774 cr in FY21 and ₹4,743 cr in FY20; the target was later framed as \~$1 billion of new EPC orders, reaffirmed at Q2 FY23 before management declined to give a number at Q3 FY23. FY23 new orders totalled ₹4,387 cr, below both the pre-COVID range and the \~₹8,000 cr target.