1. US sales - withdrawal/reset of current-year ramp Delivered - In the April 2025 announcement, management said "we are not expecting all of that to happen" for the current year on US sales moving back toward \~₹200-odd crore, withdrawing the US ramp for the year. FY26 US business sales came in at \~₹45 crore, consistent with the withdrawn expectation.
2. GSK China - cash break-even in next year Delivered - In the FY22 annual report, GSK China aimed to achieve adequate sales in the next year to reach cash break-even once again. GSK China broke even at EBITDA level in the first six months of FY23, and EBITDA broke even for FY23 as a whole.
3. Climate Technologies - EBITDA growth in FY22 Delivered - In the FY21 annual report, Climate Technologies' objective was to increase its EBITDA in FY22, supported by key project initiatives to improve EBITDA growth. FY22 Climate Technologies EBITDA was ₹38 crore vs ₹15 crore in FY21, a significant increase.
4. BISP/round-the-year portfolio - EBITDA margin in line with air cooler business On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said the BISP/round-the-year portfolio has the potential to reach EBITDA margin in line with the air cooler business, with operating leverage. BISP margin was "decent high-single-digit" in Q4 FY26 and close to double-digit by Q1 FY27, still below the air cooler business.
5. No further capital investment in Australia business Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, the Board "very importantly and categorically" decided no further capital investment or allocation will be made to the Australia business, reiterated at the Q1 FY27 call. CTPL Australia revenue continued to soften with impairment and write-off fully recorded in FY26; no new capital was deployed.
6. Sales back on track - by last quarter of FY26 Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said by the end of the year, "at least the last quarter, the sales should be sort of back on track and so should the inventory". Q4 FY26 standalone revenue was ₹199 crore vs ₹368 crore in Q4 FY25; sales were not back on track.
7. Channel inventory - normalize by end of Q3 FY26 Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said channel inventory and mindset should "settle closer to their historical kind of means" by the end of the current quarter, Q3 FY26. At the Q3 FY26 call, trade inventory was confirmed normalized, in the market almost similar to the same point last year.
8. Export performance - replicate last year if not significantly improved Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said last year's export performance "should be, if not significantly improved upon". FY26 standalone foreign exchange earnings were ₹95.50 crore vs ₹129.70 crore in FY25, down \~26%, and Q1 FY27 exports declined further on geopolitical and shipping disruptions.
9. No acquisitions - categorical commitment Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management categorically committed the company will NOT acquire any international or domestic company, with the exports model to be like the Brazil model. No acquisition has occurred through Q1 FY27 per the record.
10. Water heaters - pan-India presence within a year On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said water heaters, then in limited geography, would be rolled out to more cities, with "a sort of a pan-India presence" a year from then. By Q3 FY26 the portfolio had expanded to about 8 states with organized retail and general trade presence; pan-India presence is not yet confirmed.
11. Exports doubling - over next \~3 years On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, an analyst proposed exports doubling over the next \~3 years and management agreed, "Yes, obviously. We have all the reasons to believe so"; at Q1 FY26 management did not confirm when asked. FY25 standalone exports were ₹117 crore, and Q1 FY27 exports declined on geopolitical and shipping disruptions; the 3-year window remains open.
12. IMPCO Mexico and Climate Technologies Australia divestment - optimum value Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management announced putting IMPCO Mexico and Climate Technologies Australia on block, expecting "optimum value" and "optimum valuation", with monetization expected by end FY26 or early next financial year. At the Q3 FY26 call, the Board rolled back the proposed divestment as the valuation offered didn't meet expectations.
13. New storage water heater range - introduced for coming season Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management said the new storage water heater range (Symphony SPA, SOUL, SAUNA) with PUROPOD filtration and AI-enabled smart controller was being introduced for the coming season. Storage water heaters launched during Q3 FY25 in selected states/cities with country-wide e-commerce/D2C launch from January, and 8 new models followed by Q2 FY26.
14. 17 new cooler models - available for summer 2025 season Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management said 17 new cooler models across 6 product ranges would be available for the coming summer 2025 season, formally launching at the distributor conference the day after the call. The 17 models were launched and well received with billing from the December quarter, though production delays pushed some sales into Q4.
15. GSK China loan - no write-off, loan to be returned Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected no write-off or impairment of the GSK China loan (\~₹51.7 crore outstanding), with the loan to be returned and hopefully the impairment reversed. GSK China repaid progressively - ₹13.5 crore in FY25, ₹28 crore by Q1 FY26, ₹26 crore in FY26 - was debt-free by Q1 FY27, and the ₹7.7 crore impairment was written back.
16. Receivable days - reined in within couple of weeks Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said receivable days, up from \~35 to 53 days, would "certainly be reined in... in couple of weeks". A modern-trade distributor default with overdue \~₹44 crore surfaced at the Q2 FY25 call, and a ₹46 crore Pathways doubtful-debt provision followed at Q3 FY25.
17. Climate Technologies transformation - fully executed by September 2025 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said further Climate Technologies transformation measures - completely outsourced business model, revamped product category, scaled distribution - would be executed by September '25. Symphony AU's factory lease expired in July '25 and was not renewed, with the asset-light model fully in place, and the transformation was "completely executed" by Q2 FY26.
18. Rural-focused products - launched within current year Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said a few rural-focused, bottom-up designed products would be launched "within the current year" as part of the BHARAT/unorganized-market strategy. The Bharat Range added a couple of product ranges and grew in "high good double digits" by Q4 FY25, and the Air Force range reached 7 SKUs targeting mass/rural/semi-urban markets by Q2 FY26.
19. US destocking - corrected by next year Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said the destocking-driven US situation would "be corrected by next year". US-based sales instead degrew \~₹51 crore in Q4 FY23, Home Depot cut back demand, and FY26 US sales were \~₹45 crore against a historical range of ₹30-140 crore.
20. Australia turnaround - full benefits visible in about two years Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said the full benefits of the Australia business process transformation "should be visible in about two years' time", with margin improvements from '23-24, later extended to full benefit in 2024-25. Climate Technologies Australia stayed loss-making - EBITDA negative ₹18 crore in FY25 and negative ₹11 crore PAT in FY26 - and divestment was rolled back in December 2025.
21. D2C business - at least positive EBITDA in current year/season Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said the D2C business was expected to deliver "at least positive EBITDA" in the current year/current season. By Q1 FY25, D2C had reached critical mass with EBITDA margin in line with normal trade, and by Q3 FY26 was profitable at PAT level since the prior year.
22. Standalone EBITDA margin - reach historical high of 32% Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management reiterated the 32% historical-high EBITDA margin as the internal target for the standalone India business versus current \~25%, later aspiring to return to 32% "in the next 2 years or 3 years or so". Standalone EBITDA margin was 20.0% in FY23, 20.2% in FY24, 24.25% in FY25 and 17% in FY26, never approaching 32%.
23. Climate Technologies / IMPCO annual performance - in line with or better than FY22 Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said the annual performance of Climate Technologies / IMPCO could be expected to be in line with or better than FY21-22. FY23 Climate Technologies revenue fell 38% to ₹225 crore with EBITDA negative ₹43 crore, while IMPCO revenue rose 15% to ₹117 crore with PAT ₹2 crore; Climate Technologies was materially worse.
24. Doubling company size - next four to five years Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management endorsed doubling company size within the "next four to five years", adding "maybe one year or two years here and there". FY22 consolidated revenue was ₹1,079 crore and FY26 consolidated revenue ₹1,131 crore - up only \~5%, far from doubling.
25. Buyback - sooner than later, \~₹210 crore permissible Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided a buyback "sooner than later" with permissible size around ₹210 crore; the Board later approved up to ₹200 crore at ₹2,000 per share, and a May 2023 announcement committed completion by end of May-23, amounting to \~₹249 crore. The buyback was completed in Q1 FY24 with total payout \~₹249 crore including taxes and expenses.
26. Payout policy - 50% of PAT continues Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management reiterated the payout policy of 50% of PAT saying it "continues", revised by Q3 FY23 to at least 60% of PAT inclusive of dividend, special dividend and buyback. FY23 payout was ₹284 crore including buyback against PAT of ₹116 crore, FY24 61% of PAT, FY25 84% of consolidated PAT, and FY26 ₹62 crore against negative PAT.
27. International business EBITDA - further up in FY23 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said international business EBITDA (₹38 crore in FY22) "will further go up in the current year" (FY23), directionally with no specific number. FY23 Climate Technologies EBITDA was negative ₹43 crore, IMPCO EBITDA ₹8 crore and GSK China broke even, with RoW's share of consolidated EBITDA falling from 51% in FY22 to \~34-35% of topline in FY23.
28. D2C launch in the US - very shortly / active in US e-commerce in FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management committed to launching D2C in the US "very shortly" and being active in US e-commerce "in current accounting year" (FY23). By Q1 FY23, D2C and e-commerce had been initiated as a "baby step" globally in USA, Mexico and Australia with robust incremental sales growth, and by Q4 FY23 D2C was being built in India, Australia and the US.
29. Domestic EBITDA/operating margin - in line with historical level in June 2022 quarter Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided that June 2022 quarter domestic EBITDA/operating margin "should be by and large in line with historical level". Q1 FY23 standalone EBITDA margin was 12.8% versus 23% in FY22, with the gap attributed to elevated A&P, freight and warranty costs.
30. Standalone GP margin - around historical level in June 2022 quarter Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided that at current input and logistics cost levels, standalone GP margin in the June 2022 quarter "should be around historical level" - firm wording, repeated multiple times. Q1 FY23 standalone gross margin was 50.6% vs 47.6% in June 2021 and 50.1% in June 2019, at or above historical levels.